Why worry about fleeting convention bounces in questionable national polls?
Look at the state by state electoral math:
- It seems very likely Obama will carry all of the Kerry '04 states (Biden seems to have taken Pennsylvania completely out of play for McCain, and Michigan is starting to look like a long shot, too).
- Recent NY Times article said that Bush 04 states of Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5) are already comfortably in Obama's favor (252 + 7 + 5 = 264 electoral votes)
- If that ends up being the case, Colorado (9) alone, or Virginia (13) alone, could put him over 270.
And that says nothing of the toss up that is currently Ohio (20), and whether, conceivably, Biden and Palin have put Florida (27) into play for Obama.
"Mr. Obama?s aides said that they were confident of holding on to all the states Senator John Kerry won against Mr. Bush in 2004 and that they were already well positioned to pick up Iowa and New Mexico, both of which narrowly went to Mr. Bush. The Obama campaign is investing heavily to compete on more challenging terrain for Democrats, including Florida and Virginia."
Look at the state by state electoral math:
- It seems very likely Obama will carry all of the Kerry '04 states (Biden seems to have taken Pennsylvania completely out of play for McCain, and Michigan is starting to look like a long shot, too).
- Recent NY Times article said that Bush 04 states of Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5) are already comfortably in Obama's favor (252 + 7 + 5 = 264 electoral votes)
- If that ends up being the case, Colorado (9) alone, or Virginia (13) alone, could put him over 270.
And that says nothing of the toss up that is currently Ohio (20), and whether, conceivably, Biden and Palin have put Florida (27) into play for Obama.
"Mr. Obama?s aides said that they were confident of holding on to all the states Senator John Kerry won against Mr. Bush in 2004 and that they were already well positioned to pick up Iowa and New Mexico, both of which narrowly went to Mr. Bush. The Obama campaign is investing heavily to compete on more challenging terrain for Democrats, including Florida and Virginia."
