NYT Documents Voting Shifts In 2008

[jpeyton]

Text

Click on "Voting Shifts".

A few examples that should scare the shit out of the GOP:

Montana
2004 - R +21
2008 - R +2
Shift - D +19

Indiana
2004 - R +21
2008 - D +1
Shift - D +22

New Mexico
2004 - R +1
2008 - D +15
Shift - D +16

Oregon
2004 - D +4
2008 - D +16
Shift - D +12

The entire "Voting Shift" map is painted blue. Blue states and red states got dramatically bluer this year.

One notable exception: Arkansas, America's cess pit, shifted 10 points redder this year. I think I still hear their chants of "John McCain, Not Barack Hussein" :laugh:

 

[syzygy]

Would this be polling the same public that had Bush at 70%-80% following the Iraq invasion ?

Obama-mania is pathological with this one . . . baaaa.

 

[dphantom]

I think much of those numbers reflect a low turnout among GOP and a general feeling among conservatives that McCain was not the right person for the party. In my county, Obama won and that is a first for a Dem in over 70 years.

Be careful, though. America's cesspit produced a very effective President not so long ago.

 

[mugs]

You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: mugs
You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

Obamas policies are left leaning, but he is seen as a centrist because the country has shifted left.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

The country shifted away from the GOP and decided to let the Dems have a swing at it. Don't confuse that with people actually shifting their political beliefs though. As Mugs said, this election was a backlash against Bush and the GOP, primarily inspired by a relatively recently foundering economy. It doesn't seem in any way, shape, or form to be a shift in political ideology. If the country were truly going center-left then many of those Gay Marriage Amendments wouldn't have passed. Many did.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: mugs
You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

Obamas policies are left leaning, but he is seen as a centrist because the country has shifted left.

Keep dreaming. Obama is seen as a centrist because his campaign was run centrist. For the country to shift so far to the left that Obama's previous stances are considered centrist would be unheard of in our country.

 

[OCGuy]

Yea, this country is so left, that the "left" party can't even get gay marriage in one of the most liberal states.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: mugs
You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

Obamas policies are left leaning, but he is seen as a centrist because the country has shifted left.

Keep dreaming. Obama is seen as a centrist because his campaign was run centrist. For the country to shift so far to the left that Obama's previous stances are considered centrist would be unheard of in our country.

Obamas policies are left policies. If a dem candidate had ran on these policies in the late 80's, early 90's he would have been called a socialist/marxist...

oh wait, Obama was and the people still elected him. Face it, the country shifted left. There is nothing "centrist" about his postions at all in respect to previous candidates/politicians. He is distinctively left in comparison to pass administrations, but is centrist overall due to a ideological shift in American thinking. (Socialized Healthcare, bigger welfare safety nets wanted, alright with nationalizing major institutions, ok with government intervention in markerts, a rejection of some basic conservatism social values (though still work to be done here). The country shifted left, this election shows that. If Obama follows through on even half of his promises the shift will be permanent.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Yea, this country is so left, that the "left" party can't even get gay marriage in one of the most liberal states.

Do you try to be an idiot or is it a natural ability? Do you honestly think a "shift to the left" means everything in regards to economy, ideological, social and religious ideals happens at once? Do you know what ideologies means? The people of the country both left and right are shifting left in part due the economy, to the changing world (smaller, more social), not to mention a fear of what the far right will bring. It doesn't mean the US is going to become a communist state over the next 4 years, but it will be a social democracy at some point as the people demand protection from the wealthy class with a more welfare state.

 

[nageov3t]

omg permanent democratic majority!

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Yea, this country is so left, that the "left" party can't even get gay marriage in one of the most liberal states.

Do you try to be an idiot or is it a natural ability? Do you honestly think a "shift to the left" means everything in regards to economy, ideological, social and religious ideals happens at once? Do you know what ideologies means? The people of the country both left and right are shifting left in part due the economy, to the changing world (smaller, more social), not to mention a fear of what the far right will bring. It doesn't mean the US is going to become a communist state over the next 4 years, but it will be a social democracy at some point as the people demand protection from the wealthy class with a more welfare state.

"Middle America" voted Obama in. They will eventually vote another republican in.

There are several reasons Obama won. None of them are a "shift to the left".

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Yea, this country is so left, that the "left" party can't even get gay marriage in one of the most liberal states.

Do you try to be an idiot or is it a natural ability? Do you honestly think a "shift to the left" means everything in regards to economy, ideological, social and religious ideals happens at once? Do you know what ideologies means? The people of the country both left and right are shifting left in part due the economy, to the changing world (smaller, more social), not to mention a fear of what the far right will bring. It doesn't mean the US is going to become a communist state over the next 4 years, but it will be a social democracy at some point as the people demand protection from the wealthy class with a more welfare state.

"Middle America" voted Obama in. They will eventually vote another republican in.

There are several reasons Obama won. None of them are a "shift to the left".

Sure there are multiple reasons why Obama won, chief among them is a shift to the left and rejection of certain conservative values. It doesn't mean to expect the nearest republican to begin embracing Democrat ideals, but they are more open to them than they have been in a while, something that was shown time and time again by the polls and exit polls. I would love to hear how Obama won with no shift in the countries way of thinking, and no rejection of conservative values, or republican values (though people keep telling me they are the same thing.).

I hope the republican party keeps thinking like you are though. It will make future elections that much easier to win.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: mugs
You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

personally i think that America was never center right. When you asked people what they thought about a given set of policies without the partisan considerations, most people generally favored democratic policies. The only thing that has been keeping the practices of this country 'center right' was a group of people who would otherwise be and had traditionally been left leaning who instead vote for conservatives based on a single issue.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: loki8481
omg permanent democratic majority!

a leftward realignment maybe, eventually.

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
The country shifted away from the GOP and decided to let the Dems have a swing at it. Don't confuse that with people actually shifting their political beliefs though. As Mugs said, this election was a backlash against Bush and the GOP, primarily inspired by a relatively recently foundering economy. It doesn't seem in any way, shape, or form to be a shift in political ideology. If the country were truly going center-left then many of those Gay Marriage Amendments wouldn't have passed. Many did.

^This.

The country has decided to give the democrats the same amount of rope to hang themselves with as they did the GOP 8 years ago. Now it's up to the dems to either sink or swim.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
The country shifted away from the GOP and decided to let the Dems have a swing at it. Don't confuse that with people actually shifting their political beliefs though. As Mugs said, this election was a backlash against Bush and the GOP, primarily inspired by a relatively recently foundering economy. It doesn't seem in any way, shape, or form to be a shift in political ideology. If the country were truly going center-left then many of those Gay Marriage Amendments wouldn't have passed. Many did.

so you are saying that people categorically voted against a group of politicians with a common ideology, but still like that ideology? (assuming they ever actually did?)

I think you are underestimating this at least as much as others in this thread overestimating.

Politics in the country had been made more conservative than the actual electorate thanks to wedge issues for a generation. Now you are seeing a slight shift left and perhaps a new equilibrium slightly to the left of the electorate.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: mugs
You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

Obamas policies are left leaning, but he is seen as a centrist because the country has shifted left.

Keep dreaming. Obama is seen as a centrist because his campaign was run centrist. For the country to shift so far to the left that Obama's previous stances are considered centrist would be unheard of in our country.

Obamas policies are left policies. If a dem candidate had ran on these policies in the late 80's, early 90's he would have been called a socialist/marxist...

oh wait, Obama was and the people still elected him. Face it, the country shifted left. There is nothing "centrist" about his postions at all in respect to previous candidates/politicians. He is distinctively left in comparison to pass administrations, but is centrist overall due to a ideological shift in American thinking. (Socialized Healthcare, bigger welfare safety nets wanted, alright with nationalizing major institutions, ok with government intervention in markerts, a rejection of some basic conservatism social values (though still work to be done here). The country shifted left, this election shows that. If Obama follows through on even half of his promises the shift will be permanent.

A lot of his campaign policies are centrist are you kidding me? No gay marriage, his tax plan to lower taxes is a centrist move, his health care plan is a middle ground approach, not leftist by any means, moving corporate tax rates lower, getting private entities involved with public projects ect are all moved to the center.

Now if he follows through on those things is another story. But his campaign moved to the center and it showed. He runs with a UHC, govt take everything tax your eyes out approach and he loses.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: mugs
You've said this a few times, but I haven't see you explain why this is evidence of a shift in the political persuasions of Americans and not backlash against Bush. The magnitude of the shifts would indicate to me that it's backlash against Bush - I would expect an actual shift to happen more gradually. The senators and representatives who were elected were riding Obama's coattails.

Obamas policies are left leaning, but he is seen as a centrist because the country has shifted left.

Keep dreaming. Obama is seen as a centrist because his campaign was run centrist. For the country to shift so far to the left that Obama's previous stances are considered centrist would be unheard of in our country.

Obamas policies are left policies. If a dem candidate had ran on these policies in the late 80's, early 90's he would have been called a socialist/marxist...

oh wait, Obama was and the people still elected him. Face it, the country shifted left. There is nothing "centrist" about his postions at all in respect to previous candidates/politicians. He is distinctively left in comparison to pass administrations, but is centrist overall due to a ideological shift in American thinking. (Socialized Healthcare, bigger welfare safety nets wanted, alright with nationalizing major institutions, ok with government intervention in markerts, a rejection of some basic conservatism social values (though still work to be done here). The country shifted left, this election shows that. If Obama follows through on even half of his promises the shift will be permanent.

A lot of his campaign policies are centrist are you kidding me? No gay marriage, his tax plan to lower taxes is a centrist move, his health care plan is a middle ground approach, not leftist by any means, moving corporate tax rates lower, getting private entities involved with public projects ect are all moved to the center.

Now if he follows through on those things is another story. But his campaign moved to the center and it showed. He runs with a UHC, govt take everything tax your eyes out approach and he loses.

Maybe you just moved a little left too Will be interesting to see what he follows through on.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Originally posted by: RichardE

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Yea, this country is so left, that the "left" party can't even get gay marriage in one of the most liberal states.

Do you try to be an idiot or is it a natural ability? Do you honestly think a "shift to the left" means everything in regards to economy, ideological, social and religious ideals happens at once? Do you know what ideologies means? The people of the country both left and right are shifting left in part due the economy, to the changing world (smaller, more social), not to mention a fear of what the far right will bring. It doesn't mean the US is going to become a communist state over the next 4 years, but it will be a social democracy at some point as the people demand protection from the wealthy class with a more welfare state.

"Middle America" voted Obama in. They will eventually vote another republican in.

There are several reasons Obama won. None of them are a "shift to the left".

Sure there are multiple reasons why Obama won, chief among them is a shift to the left and rejection of certain conservative values. It doesn't mean to expect the nearest republican to begin embracing Democrat ideals, but they are more open to them than they have been in a while, something that was shown time and time again by the polls and exit polls. I would love to hear how Obama won with no shift in the countries way of thinking, and no rejection of conservative values, or republican values (though people keep telling me they are the same thing.).

I hope the republican party keeps thinking like you are though. It will make future elections that much easier to win.

Which conservative values were rejected by those people? It sure wasn't gay marriage, a willingness to pay higher taxes, or any of the spread-the-wealth crap.

Many of those that abdicated the GOP and voted for Obama didn't do so because of any shift in values. They did it purely out of self-interest, primarily economic self-interest. The D's were fortunate that the economy tanked over the last two years. Without that gift McCain would be the Prez-elect right now instead.

 

[Genx87]

I may have moved more center it is hard to say considering idea's and politicial stances move over time. I dont know but a lot of his bigger policies are not leftist and I dont see much evidence of this huge shift to the left. It looked more like a perfect storm of Obama moderation, general disgust of republicans thanks to their actions under Bush, and an uninspiring republican candidate.

He runs as a true leftist and I dont think he quite pulls it off. The American people desire moderate politics. Obama delivered it big time and got elected.

 

[Tab]

So, the American public elects a obvious left-leaning individual but the American public isn't moving left it's just because McCain ran a poor campaign, the economy was in rough shape, ACORN stole the votes, blah blah blah

No wonder you lost this election...

 

[winnar111]

We will see. Lyndon Johnson's victory in 1964 led to the end of leftwinged policies for the next 40 years. Who knows whether that's happening again or not.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
The country shifted away from the GOP and decided to let the Dems have a swing at it. Don't confuse that with people actually shifting their political beliefs though. As Mugs said, this election was a backlash against Bush and the GOP, primarily inspired by a relatively recently foundering economy. It doesn't seem in any way, shape, or form to be a shift in political ideology. If the country were truly going center-left then many of those Gay Marriage Amendments wouldn't have passed. Many did.

so you are saying that people categorically voted against a group of politicians with a common ideology, but still like that ideology? (assuming they ever actually did?)

I think you are underestimating this at least as much as others in this thread overestimating.

Politics in the country had been made more conservative than the actual electorate thanks to wedge issues for a generation. Now you are seeing a slight shift left and perhaps a new equilibrium slightly to the left of the electorate.

Public opinion hasn't shifted much on those wedge issues over the recent years. It surely hasn't shifted nearly enough recently to reflect the shift in voting for this election. Additionally, opinion on the wedge issues has been painfully and slowly creeping to the left over decades, as it nearly always does, though that movement is nearly imperceptable in the short run. So how does that align with the electorate becoming more conservative over the last generation? imo, they have become more liberal, but not by any truly meaningful margin.

The mistake some people seem to be making is believing that if a person voted for Obama that they must be onboard with his platform and behind his ideological agenda. I don't believe that to be the case. Many voters were just sicker than shit of the GOP and decided it was time for a change, any change. Obama was a choice they could live with, even if he did go against some of their beliefs. It's not as if the GOP today truly followed many conservative values anyway.

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: Tab
So, the American public elects a obvious left-leaning individual but the American public isn't moving left it's just because McCain ran a poor campaign, the economy was in rough shape, ACORN stole the votes, blah blah blah

No wonder you lost this election...

Obama didn't run on a leftist platform.