happy medium
Lifer
- Jun 8, 2003
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How about the fake Fermi board?
ahahaha good point man! but still I tend to believe him.
How about the fake Fermi board?
Last year JHH said that he doesn't like to talk about products that don't exist yet.
Mabe he's not? At least I havent heard anything except a simple roadmap and performance targets, kinda like Intel does.
Nvidia quotes are amusing
"They (Intel) have disrupted our chipset business. The damage has been done. We've been out of the chipset business for well over a year, so if this got resolved we're not expecting to ramp back up the thousand engineers that we had working on chipsets."
Kepler's performance-per-watt advance is well underway, according to Huang. "Kepler is based on 28 nanometers. It's scheduled for production later next year. The design is progressing very rapidly. There are hundreds of engineers working on it. By the time we are done with the Kepler family, we will probably have invested a couple of billion dollars on R&D for it."
You know.. a communist leader used to say similar crap : " A chicken in every plate! A Chianti for every meal!";"15000 specialists prepared to overclock the country to its full potential"
Right, so why wouldn't that be the case this time? I said there's no reason I'd expect there not to be refreshes, and you seemed to disagree, but then answered with my own hypothesis.Easy one, because when do they not have a refresh or higher clocked faster card.? , Both AMd and Nvidia do it.
There's a reading comprehension failure. I said that performance would stagnate, I didn't say there wouldn't be any new products. For all we know, it's NVIDIA, there could be a dozen "new" products just from rebranding :whiste:.I came to that conclusion because you said it yourself.
Thanks for the post!
So I am guessing some sort of Fermi re-spin late 2010/Q1 2011, with a full new generation in stores H2 2011?
The fact that they are showing performance/watt on the graph means they got the hint about Fermi.![]()
Well, perhaps we will see a Fermi refresh at some point. This makes it seem like 2010 is the original time line for that refresh so it either means it isn't coming(or was GF104), or that the holidays will be fun in addition to the HD6000 series.
But it seems to clearly point out that Kepler is at 28nm though. Other than the name folks have been claiming "no successor until 28nm" for some time. Nice to have a name though.
Where on earth does engadget get the time line from though? They must realize that 28nm isn't close to ready at TSMC yet. How can they claim at 28nm and "expected to go to production this year and ship in 2011" in the same breath and not be full of something fishy? They won't even get sample silicon back until 2011.
Additionally, how far along is TSMC anyway? Is the time consuming part getting up to full production capability (thus the parts at ATI/Nvidia are waiting to just push through) or is the process itself not done and thus parts can't even tape out until 2011?
I wouldn't hold your breathe if I was you. Maybe late 2011 if at all. It's gotta be a old PR roadmap slide. Just look at Fermi (2009) we all know what happened with that.
So there's nothing coming from NVIDIA for awhile then? Beyond that ambiguous allusion to "mid-life kicker" products, their roadmap is looking pretty bare.
Since when does a lack of confirmation regarding unannounced products confirm there ISN'T new products being worked on for the current node?
Part of the issue with a Fermi refresh is generally you increase performance by:
1. Add more stuff. Fermi @ 40nm can't really add all that much because it's huge already.
2. Increase clocks. Fermi takes in enough power as it is, you can't increase them THAT much.
3. Go to new process, which won't be ready for awhile, so that's out of the question.
Lastly, you can do some tweaks, lower power consumption, boost clocks a bit, but it's awfully tough to get more performance out of a huge chip that takes 250watts of power as it is.
Now, hopefully they manage to pull something off, but I don't expect them to get more than 10-20% until 28nm
Yeah, the Fermi that actually went into production is itself a refresh/redesign that went through a fair amount of revisions to get to where it is now. As you say they cant squeeze much more performance out of that design on the current process.
They were out on time. But they were supply limited due to the issues and they had to yank out functionality in the 5000 series to get it done. Nvidia had more at stake with their chip(Tesla, Quadro lines, and gaming) and didnt have that flexibility. That said, the 40nm node issue was a fiasco for both companies.
Question is though... was 40nm a fiasco or is TSMC a fiasco.. Even worse, if the sort of issues we see start to become commonplace the smaller we get both companies are going to have to have a rather large change of strategy to succeed.
Take a deep breathe and relax
I doubt all the blame with Fermi's delay can be placed in TSMC's lap. I'm sure some of the delay was caused by the need to re-spin/tweak the design. One could say that AMD didn't seem to have much of a problem with TSMC's 40nm node other than supply. As far as Fermi's replacement goes it's in the old PR slide shown in the photo.
Now does nvidia have something to counter the 6xxx series launch? We'll have to wait and see I guess....I'm kinda surprised they haven't released a dual gpu card yet!
As far as the hypothetical performance of the upcoming 6xxx series from AMD it's anybodies guess....But I'd think AMD wouldn't waiste the R&D time and money if it wasn't gonna pay off for them.
When I talked to my source at AMD he said " Were gonna kick nvidia to the curb just like Apple did " so does that make you feel better about the 6xxx series hypothetical performance now
What I meant is that if it was a press-release as others claim then why isn't it all over the web....We all know how the Big Green Machines PR department works.
If you saw Nvidia's conference yesterday you will heard of a roadmap showing two new GPUs coming in the future and another thread on Xtreme news:
http://www.tcmagazine.com/tcm/news/h...ming-next-year
http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/...d.php?t=259492
EDIT: This site aswell: http://translate.google.com/translat...-suunnitteilla
Kelper will be on 28nm Process and Maxwell on 22nm (but will be a very big gap acording to the roadmap, maybe my system with Haswell ).
If you have been lurking around on xtremesystems news one posted called sampsa who has supposdly has sources said about the "GF110" and around the net few sites were talking about the "Fermi 2". This is what i think that the following releases will be:
GF11x/Fermi 2 = 500 series (40nm or 28nm), kelper = 600 series (28nm), Maxwell = 700 series or 800 series (22nm) if there is going to be something inbetween like a "Kepler 2" on a (28 or 22nm).
I also think that Nvidia is goint to counter AMD/ATI's follwing series GF11x/Fermi 2 will counter Northern Islands (40nm), Kelper will counter Southern islands (28nm).
Kelper from the conference has apparantly a LOT of egineers working on it which makes me think kelper is going to be a New arch like the GF100 from G200. Also GF11x/Fermi 2 could have a more "Gamer optismised" version possibly for GeForce brand and another one for HPC stuff for Quadro brand as the main problem for Fermi was that the Geforce was trying to be able to do HPC tasks aswell as gaming which lead it to be too expensive, power hungry and hot compared to Cypress due to its HPC designed shaders.
This also makes me think that both AMD/ATI and Nvidia have taken a page out of Intel and are going to start doing a "tick tock" style of devolpment and releases as die shrinks are going to get far more tougher for TSMC, GlobalFoundries to increase perfomance, Die size and Power requirements (Nvidia's CEO said that Maxwell is going to have very good Perfomance per watt by a lot in fact looks at the roadmap and if true).
By looking at this roadmap makes me think that 2011 and foward is going to be a good time for PC hardware compared to the recent dissapointing last two years (2009-2010).
So what do you all think?
Thanks for the post!
So I am guessing some sort of Fermi re-spin late 2010/Q1 2011, with a full new generation in stores H2 2011?
The fact that they are showing performance/watt on the graph means they got the hint about Fermi.![]()
There's almost certainly going to be a fermi refresh at some point between now and Kelper - a GTX 485 or similar - nvidia have pretty well always done this. To leave us with exactly the same high end card for best part of 2 years seems highly unlikely.
As for how good Kelper is going to be for us gamers, pretty unclear? The slide seems to be talking about double precision performance/watt which considering it's a gpu conference makes sense, however double precision is pretty well useless for gamers. It's a focus that if anything suggests it might be compromised for gamers as one of kelpers main performance targets isn't helping us.
They were having problems with the 485. For one, most 480s are just failed 485s. When they tried to make i think it was 50,000 480s, only 6000 could even be turned into 485s, and therefore had very poor yield. Second, without radically changing things, and just adding shaders and clock speed, it will just run hotter linearly to the increase in performance. 2nd, they are taking their SWEET time just getting the barebones of their lineup out. the 6xxx series is shaping up to lap them, as they still need to roll out the GT430, and its released same time as begining of 6xxx. A fully unlocked 460 can also only reach around 480 performance, and while it may not be as hot, they would have to price it so low compared to AMD products to get any sales, in which case they would be stagnating, or possibly even losing money. They can add a "5" to the end of all their cards, but AMD is adding 1000, and thats really just saying a few more shaders here, increased clock, little tweaking cant stand up to a fully refreshed arch.
Yeah but they don't get free hardware to do it I suppose,if they did....I'd be volunteering
Cause we all know that makes no difference in opinions here:whiste:
Why should AMD give out free hardware for folks to pimp their products and turn most of these threads into anti-NV fests? Nvidias failures and sleazy marketing seems to result in the same, for free![]()
There's a reading comprehension failure.
So if Kepler is the "Tock" due out in 2011, then Fermi II must be the "Tick". The reason I think folks don't expect to see anything "so soon" from Nvidia is because Fermi was very late, making it seem like too short a period of time for the next gen/refresh release. For all intents and purposes, Fermi "should" have been here just about the time when AMD's 5870 launched in 2009. That was a year ago. Fermi has actually been here for half that length, so another architecture being released would "seem" like it's not possible or too soon. And of course, according to the logic of some, if Fermi was late, then every succeeding GPU from Nvidia must be late also. I don't think that's how things are going to work out.
So I am guessing some sort of Fermi re-spin late 2010/Q1 2011, with a full new generation in stores H2 2011?
The fact that they are showing performance/watt on the graph means they got the hint about Fermi.![]()
So if Kepler is the "Tock" due out in 2011, then Fermi II must be the "Tick". The reason I think folks don't expect to see anything "so soon" from Nvidia is because Fermi was very late, making it seem like too short a period of time for the next gen/refresh release. For all intents and purposes, Fermi "should" have been here just about the time when AMD's 5870 launched in 2009. That was a year ago. Fermi has actually been here for half that length, so another architecture being released would "seem" like it's not possible or too soon. And of course, according to the logic of some, if Fermi was late, then every succeeding GPU from Nvidia must be late also. I don't think that's how things are going to work out.
As per original post:
"Must be going by the "if not delayed by TSMC's 40nm problems"
