Nvidia Q3 Financial Results

[f1sherman]

The numbers are in. In after hours stock is hitting 24 months high.
Is it going to drop later like always - or can it break through $20?

Record revenue of $1.23 billion in quarter, up 16 percent from a year earlier
GAAP diluted EPS of $0.31 in quarter, up from $0.20 a year earlier; non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.39, up from $0.26 a year earlier
Record revenue of $3.43 billion in first three quarters, up 15 percent from a year earlier
http://nvidianews.nvidia.com/News/N...esults-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2015-c04.aspx


Are you still going to listen The Grand Wizzard & Co.
http://investor.nvidia.com/events.cfm :ninja:

 

[tviceman]

Nvidia is on pace to surpass AMD in revenue next year. Nvidia has been outspending AMD in R&D for awhile now. Even Tegra is doing alright, which still isn't getting significant adoption in tablets (or phones) despite the best Android GPU, among-the-best CPU performance, and going toe-to-toe with Apple's A8X despite Apple using a more advanced node.

I am having a hard time seeing what kind of relevant role AMD is going to have in both CPU and GPU's in about 18-24 months time. Their next-gen CPU's need to return them to competitiveness, if not on the highest end, at least in the upper, mid, and lower end. They have a real chance to innovate here since Intel has been relatively resting on their laurels for the last several (many) years.

On the GPU front, they're more competitive today but I feel they've flatlined. IMO they've dropped the ball completely since 40nm. Going from having a 6 month lead time with Evergreen, and amazing perf/watt and perf/mm2 advantages, to having disastrous drivers on Tahiti's launch and eventually losing on perf/mm2 and perf/w, to what we have now with Hawaii being pretty fast but only an incremental upgrade with no technological improvement to efficiency.

 

[f1sherman]

GeForce revenue +36% YoY
Gaming notebooks revenue +200% YoY

oh noes discrete is dead

@tviceman
too many products being made with less and less resources(R&D and men)
there really isn't much one can do to dig himself out of such a hole
now I hear embedded is the next big thing, yet another commodity low margin business

 

[AnandThenMan]

Nvidia is on pace to surpass AMD...

Are you an AMD shareholder? And what does AMD have to do with Nvidia's results exactly.

 

[desprado]

Are you an AMD shareholder? And what does AMD have to do with Nvidia's results exactly.

It has do a lot.

When a shareholders see that is company is suffering than he try to shift his investment to more stable company which Intel or Nvidia.

AMD stock has droped alot that is why it is currently at 2.77 stock price and Nvidia 20.22.

 

[Black Octagon]

Not to mention how utterly screwed we all will be if the GPU market of the future basically consists of NV running a monopoly and making the price gouging of 2013-2014 look like child's play...

 

[AnandThenMan]

It has do a lot.

When a shareholders see that is company is suffering than he try to shift his investment to more stable company which Intel or Nvidia.

Epic fail investing advice right there. AMD is one of the best stocks ever because in the last few years its had a very predictable rise/fall pattern. I don't care one bit about how a company does I care if I can make money from the stock.

On topic, strong results from Nvidia I like the fact that they are the only independent graphics maker left and still going.

 

[Rezist]

Not to mention how utterly screwed we all will be if the GPU market of the future basically consists of NV running a monopoly and making the price gouging of 2013-2014 look like child's play...

PC gaming would be ok, I'd question though what the next gen consoles would be, probably a Qualcomm/Samsung SoC. I guess prices would get crazier.

 

[rgallant]

just a noob but
so they put their r&d cost in the q2 when they were selling .8-1k gpus that now sell for sub $400.00 and then the sales from sub $550 cards [made when?] into q3 adds up to me.

 

[tviceman]

Are you an AMD shareholder? And what does AMD have to do with Nvidia's results exactly.

I am an AMD shareholder. I'm hoping for a return to the mid $3's so I can sell off and be done with them.

 

[desprado]

Epic fail investing advice right there. AMD is one of the best stocks ever because in the last few years its had a very predictable rise/fall pattern. I don't care one bit about how a company does I care if I can make money from the stock.

On topic, strong results from Nvidia I like the fact that they are the only independent graphics maker left and still going.

from 4 stock price it went to 2.77 stock price and now u are suggesting it is making profits.

They changed there CEO because they are not making profits and 7% layoff is big sign for that.

Dont post anything without any link or prof.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-06/amd-falls-further-behind-chip-rivals-intel-qualcomm

 

[raghu78]

Great execution by Nvidia. Any conversation about Nvidia and Intel will involve AMD as both these companies are gaining market share at the expense of AMD. Both of them are really putting the squeeze on AMD and thats showing in AMD's financials. the low Q4 2014 projections for AMD are a direct result of the Maxwell onslaught and Intel cleaning up the low end with Baytrail. AMD used to make some money during the early Brazos days in 2011. The biggest sign of AMD's poor execution and loss of market share is that AMD's Computing and Graphics division which includes desktop CPUs, desktop and notebook APUs, desktop, notebook and professional GPU (USD 781 million ) now makes USD 210 million less revenue than Nvidia's GPU revenue (USD 991 million) which includes the professional, desktop and notebook GPU. Thats embarassing.

Anyway in interests of consumers and the market its imperative that AMD improves their execution. The next 18 - 24 months will show if AMD has it in them to turn around their company's fortunes with competitive products. If their next gen x86-64 and ARMv8 CPU and next gen GPU architectures don't deliver then its more or less game over.

 

[NTMBK]

Anyone found a pre-division breakdown of the results yet? I can only find the ones for the company as a whole. Curious whether Tegra is profitable yet.

 

[tviceman]

Anyone found a pre-division breakdown of the results yet? I can only find the ones for the company as a whole. Curious whether Tegra is profitable yet.

It's in the CFO commentary PDF. http://investor.nvidia.com/
They don't say if it's profitable or not. Tegra did ~$168 million this quarter. A few years ago JHH said Tegra needed $750 million on the year to break even. That may be different now since some of R&D is now shared since their GPU's are being built ground up for mobile.

 

[NTMBK]

It's in the CFO commentary PDF. http://investor.nvidia.com/
They don't say if it's profitable or not. Tegra did ~$168 million this quarter. A few years ago JHH said Tegra needed $750 million on the year to break even. That may be different now since some of R&D is now shared since their GPU's are being built ground up for mobile.

Thanks for the link. Shame they don't break down expenditure as well as revenue; that makes me a little suspicious that they have something unpleasant to hide.

 

[sm625]

NVDA's chart pattern is ominous. This morning's action puts us at the top of the megaphone. It is not a good place to enter into a long position. I would consider this a very good short candidate, if this stock hasnt convincingly broke out of this megaphone pattern by the time the broader market starts to turn.

 

[tviceman]

Thanks for the link. Shame they don't break down expenditure as well as revenue; that makes me a little suspicious that they have something unpleasant to hide.

Like I said, it's a little more muddied now that Tegra is using Kepler and Maxwell was built from the ground up for Tegra. It'd be hard to separate all of the costs, and I don't think companies do "shared costs" that much if at all when explaining expenditures.

My opinion is that Tegra needs to be $800-$1+ billion a year for it to be viable long term.

 

[tviceman]

NVDA's chart pattern is ominous. This morning's action puts us at the top of the megaphone. It is not a good place to enter into a long position. I would consider this a very good short candidate, if this stock hasnt convincingly broke out of this megaphone pattern by the time the broader market starts to turn.

I don't see anything ominous in record revenue and continued profits quarter after quarter. NVDA stock trading at or near a two year high, but so are many other stocks. When companies do well, stocks go up. Eventually new highs are hit. Rinse and repeat.

 

[NTMBK]

Like I said, it's a little more muddied now that Tegra is using Kepler and Maxwell was built from the ground up for Tegra.

True, but they've now got the added costs of designing the Shield devices- and Denver costs aren't going down, I suspect.

Anyone know whether they are still developing new modem products? Given that they've given up on the smartphone market, that seems like an obvious place to make some savings.

 

[PliotronX]

oh noes discrete is dead

Discrete is 6469736372657465 in hex which divided by 2156578790885822 is 3. Half-Life 3 confirmed

 

[AnandThenMan]

from 4 stock price it went to 2.77 stock price and now u are suggesting it is making profits.

They changed there CEO because they are not making profits and 7% layoff is big sign for that.

Dont post anything without any link or prof.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-06/amd-falls-further-behind-chip-rivals-intel-qualcomm

Nvidia is down ~3% in early trading, this is why you don't ever, ever solely base your stock buying habits on financial reports. I never said anything about AMD and profits, you can't seem to grasp the concept that a stock tanking is often a good thing from an investing perspective.

 

[positivedoppler]

I'm guessing its going down because investors were way too optimistic regarding the success of Maxwell. Also Nvidia's payment from Intel's 5 years 1.5 billion that started Jan 18, 2011 is coming to an end.

 

[ocre]

I guess its the end of Intel integrated HD graphics then.

Or

Intel will sign another cross license agreement.

If anyone is really questioning, it is pretty much guaranteed there will be a new agreement. Or Intel will have to start completely over with their igp. Start from scratch, build an entirely new graphics line that doesn't infringe on nvidia patents. Or they could license tech from another company. AMD? No way. But even if they do make a deal with some else, using that tech to make a whole new graphics core would be a massive undertaking. It just seems completely unlikely. Anything other than signing another deal with nvidia would mean designing a completely different graphics core from scratch. Its just hard to imagine. Intel would have to hard already cut a deal with someone else and be far into developing a radically different Intel graphics

 

[HurleyBird]

That 1.5 billion encompassed a lot of things, the exact distribution of which is known only by Nvidia and Intel. Certainly a sizeable chunk, and probably the outright majority, was to reconcile Intel's anti-competitive practices which basically destroyed Nvidia's chipset business.

 

[positivedoppler]

That 1.5 billion encompassed a lot of things, the exact distribution of which is known only by Nvidia and Intel. Certainly a sizeable chunk, and probably the outright majority, was to reconcile Intel's anti-competitive practices which basically destroyed Nvidia's chipset business.

True. Even if Intel does renew, i doubt Nvidia will get a 75 illion/quarter bonus. Then again, since they are all ARMs, Nvidia is in pretty giod position since I doubt they need much tech fron Intel any more