Nvidia Q3 Financial Results

[Silverforce11]

They dont need to, in a laptop. Llano uses 10x more battery power to do the same tasks.
Thats where ARM shines.

There's a reason Atom even dual cores are restricted to netbooks with limited function and why the masses buy actual notebooks with real CPUs/GPUs.

 

[Red Hawk]

They dont need to, in a laptop. Llano uses 10x more battery power to do the same tasks.
Thats where ARM shines.

Llano may use more battery power but it's still faster than any ARM chip. In 15 months there will probably be a 28 nm successor to Llano on a better architecture, so it will still be faster and it will have cut down on power. If power is a major concern, AMD's still got stuff like Zacate and Ontario to offer.

You're exaggerating the battery power difference anyways. Apple claims its iPad 2 battery life to be 10 hours, while a Llano laptop at the same price point claims 4 hours.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16834101252

 

[ocre]

All of AMD's GPUs are competitive with nVidia.

I could make a list of all of AMD's incredible hardware over the years, but I don't have time. They had a really good run in terms of CPUs and GPUs over the years. Right now they're not competing at the high end, but that doesn't mean that they can't. They're choosing not to.

So let me get this straight. when you say this you are only referring to their GPU department?

AMD deliberately went with a small die design approach focussed on efficiency, this is a fact. In the process, they were not far off at all from competing at the high end of the market. If they can actually get the 7000 series out the door ASAP, we may witness a changing of the guard and the de-throning of nVidia.

I dont know what your meaning? AMD is competing in the high end with their GPUs. I cant see how you are claiming otherwise. AMD sells in the top of this market with their 6990. Its most expensive and powerful GPU segment.

Their 6900 series is completely high end. It competes with nvidias gf110s. From the way you act their is only one card that is the entire high end market, the gtx580. This is not true, AMD has a card that is just beneath it and a dual card that is way more powerful than it. Currently AMD is every bit in the high end GPU market, i dont know what your missing.

Just because Nvidia has the single GPU crown does not mean AMD isnt competing in the high end. That is ludicrous. The 580 caught them by surprise, they never seen it coming. If it hadnt, they would be competing very well against the GTX480. Since the GTX570 is close to the 480 in performance, you see it as the 6970 competition. It has nothing to do with AMD not wanting to compete in the "high end" as you put it.

 

[ocre]

Llano may use more battery power but it's still faster than any ARM chip. In 15 months there will probably be a 28 nm successor to Llano on a better architecture, so it will still be faster and it will have cut down on power. If power is a major concern, AMD's still got stuff like Zacate and Ontario to offer.

You're exaggerating the battery power difference anyways. Apple claims its iPad 2 battery life to be 10 hours, while a Llano laptop at the same price point claims 4 hours.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16834101252

Apples ipad 2 cpu is bigger than most ARM cpus including the all the tegra line. Its a custome big chips that is only relative to the ipad2 and doesnt reflect all of ARM.

 

[SickBeast]

So let me get this straight. when you say this you are only referring to their GPU department?

Yes. That was my mistake; I should have been more specific. They tried for it with Bulldozer but we know how that wound up.

I dont know what your meaning? AMD is competing in the high end with their GPUs. I cant see how you are claiming otherwise. AMD sells in the top of this market with their 6990. Its most expensive and powerful GPU segment.

Their 6900 series is completely high end. It competes with nvidias gf110s. From the way you act their is only one card that is the entire high end market, the gtx580. This is not true, AMD has a card that is just beneath it and a dual card that is way more powerful than it. Currently AMD is every bit in the high end GPU market, i dont know what your missing.

Just because Nvidia has the single GPU crown does not mean AMD isnt competing in the high end. That is ludicrous. The 580 caught them by surprise, they never seen it coming. If it hadnt, they would be competing very well against the GTX480. Since the GTX570 is close to the 480 in performance, you see it as the 6970 competition. It has nothing to do with AMD not wanting to compete in the "high end" as you put it.

AMD is not creating large die GPUs to go for the high end of the market, that's what I'm saying. The 6990 is high end but it's also dual GPU.

There was an AnandTech article some time back where AMD stated that they were not going after the upper end of the GPU market. Perhaps their strategy is changing now, but as it stands they are still pretty much only engineering upper midrange GPUs.

 

[Red Hawk]

Apples ipad 2 cpu is bigger than most ARM cpus including the all the tegra line. Its a custome big chips that is only relative to the ipad2 and doesnt reflect all of ARM.

You're right, I should look at other tablets in the $500 price range...hmm...they seem to all run on Tegra 2, which uses a dual core 1 GHz CPU, 4 pixel shaders and 4 vertex shaders, and DDR2 memory. LOL! Sounds like something low-end from back in 2006. Llano would pummel them into the ground with regards to performance.

 

[tviceman]

ARM is good enough for tablets and perhaps netbooks. They aren't there yet in terms of performance for an actual PC. They might want a proper office suite and some serious apps before they try to go down that road.

Are they allowed to emulate x86? I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that emulation is legal.

Emulation will be a sticking point at first, but as more and more netbooks, tablets, and laptops come out with Windows 8 ARM and Android, applications will be released supporting both CPU architectures simultaneously. Also, given the same timespan, I know the catch word that everyone likes to use is "cloud" but more and more programs and services are going to the cloud, making incompatibility even less of an issue.

I expect high end Tegra4 and especially Tegra5 CPU's to go toe-to-toe and even beat offerings from AMD and Intel in performance the same price range. And when it comes to performance / watt, it should be skewed even more in Tegra's favor.

 

[Red Hawk]

If current Tegra offerings do not compete with Intel/AMD right now, I doubt they will in the future. Intel and AMD will not just rest on their laurels while Nvidia works to improve Tegra.

I mean, seriously? Dual-core/non-unified shader architecture/DDR2 memory vs. quad core/unified shaders/DDR3 memory. Tegra's got a ways to go before it can even compete with Llano as is.

 

[ocre]

Yes. That was my mistake; I should have been more specific. They tried for it with Bulldozer but we know how that wound up.


AMD is not creating large die GPUs to go for the high end of the market, that's what I'm saying. The 6990 is high end but it's also dual GPU.

There was an AnandTech article some time back where AMD stated that they were not going after the upper end of the GPU market. Perhaps their strategy is changing now, but as it stands they are still pretty much only engineering upper midrange GPUs.

You have to look at the way it played out. The 5870 was not a small die, they intended to have the crown and they did. Cayman would be a different story completely. The 6970 is a great contender for the gtx480. You act as if the high end is just one card, the GTX580. The GTX580 hit everyone by surprise, AMD included. If it wasnt for this AMD would be competing ver well against the GTX480. Can you see the way it played out shows AMD was after the high end GTX480. Bo one expected a 580 in just a few months after the 480, no one.

If AMD had known of the 580 it may have been different. AMDs small dies strategy is just a marketing fluff. Caymen is not very small. It has almost as many transistors as fermi. The 6970 is a huge 2.64 billion transistor chip. The gtx 580 should be just under 3billion. The difference is the density, AMD packs in their transistors in a more dense configuration which may physically look a lot smaller but those transistors are expensive. Packing them in more densely is just how AMD does it. Its been hyped up as the better way but as we all see now, when its all said and done, Nvidia has a more profitable design by far. There is many things to consider and its just not so simple.

AMD would love to have the performance crown, and if you buy this PR marketing fluff then explain why they was so aggressive when the 590 came to challenge the 6990. Even though it was a toss up, AMD wanted to be the top dawg just as much as Nvidia. Its obvious to me. just look at how things came to be.

 

[ocre]

You're right, I should look at other tablets in the $500 price range...hmm...they seem to all run on Tegra 2, which uses a dual core 1 GHz CPU, 4 pixel shaders and 4 vertex shaders, and DDR2 memory. LOL! Sounds like something low-end from back in 2006. Llano would pummel them into the ground with regards to performance.

I guess.

Whats the problem then? Everyone, Llano is the king, its soo much better. Why is anyone using anything else? Whats ARM doing in all these tablets? I mean, why does anyone even use arm when Llano is here? uhmmm?

 

[Silverforce11]

Different market segment.

ARM will only compete with x86 when they offer competitive performance. Not just superior perf/watt.

 

[Red Hawk]

I guess.

Whats the problem then? Everyone, Llano is the king, its soo much better. Why is anyone using anything else? Whats ARM doing in all these tablets? I mean, why does anyone even use arm when Llano is here? uhmmm?

Android. It hasn't been coded for x86. iOS is proprietary to iPad, and Windows 7 never took off in the tablet space. For the same reason, ARM has yet to even take a stab at the notebook market -- Windows 7 isn't programmed for ARM.

Windows 8 will be the great equalizer. It will support both x86 and ARM. It will allow ARM to invade the notebook space, and x86 to invade the tablet space (assuming Windows 8 is successful at all with tablets, of course). On one side: Intel with Ivy Bridge and AMD with Trinity (Llano's successor). On the other, Nvidia with Tegra 3 (Apple is a competitor but their software/hardware is proprietary). I look forward to seeing how this clash of technology turns out. As far as performance goes, my bets are on x86 for now.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Emulation will be a sticking point at first, but as more and more netbooks, tablets, and laptops come out with Windows 8 ARM and Android, applications will be released supporting both CPU architectures simultaneously. Also, given the same timespan, I know the catch word that everyone likes to use is "cloud" but more and more programs and services are going to the cloud, making incompatibility even less of an issue.

I expect high end Tegra4 and especially Tegra5 CPU's to go toe-to-toe and even beat offerings from AMD and Intel in performance the same price range. And when it comes to performance / watt, it should be skewed even more in Tegra's favor.

From AT article Intel /NV settlement .

NVIDIA also does not get an x86 license. x86 is among an umbrella group of what’s being called “Intel proprietary products” which NVIDIA is not getting access to. Intel’s flash memory holdings and other chipset holdings are also a part of this. Interestingly the agreement also classifies an “Intel Architecture Emulator” as being a proprietary product. At first glance this would seem to disallow NVIDIA from making an x86 emulator for any of their products, be it their GPU holdings or the newly announced Project Denver ARM CPU. Being officially prohibited from emulating x86 could be a huge deal for Denver down the road depending on where NVIDIA goes with it.

 

[ocre]

Android. It hasn't been coded for x86. iOS is proprietary to iPad, and Windows 7 never took off in the tablet space. For the same reason, ARM has yet to even take a stab at the notebook market -- Windows 7 isn't programmed for ARM.

Windows 8 will be the great equalizer. It will support both x86 and ARM. It will allow ARM to invade the notebook space, and x86 to invade the tablet space (assuming Windows 8 is successful at all with tablets, of course). On one side: Intel with Ivy Bridge and AMD with Trinity (Llano's successor). On the other, Nvidia with Tegra 3 (Apple is a competitor but their software/hardware is proprietary). I look forward to seeing how this clash of technology turns out. As far as performance goes, my bets are on x86 for now.

I think its more than that. X86 has to compete with an ARMy of competitors. Dont overlook the huge ARM base that currently is massive. Its not very easy for x86 to win like you think. Intel has invested billions just to try to compete with ARM. Llano is not the answer. Llano will not be very competitive in the ARM markets.

The future is still wild. As x86 scales down, ARM will not set still. Intel spent billions thus far, how much more who knows. But arm is still growing very very fast, x86 is at a standstill. As for performance, x86 will be king for some time to come. But for the ARM markets, ARM is the way better architecture for the task. I would not bet on x86 in those (arm) markets at all. That would be crazy to think. ARM is not a joke, it is a very established and successful architecture. Its not gonna be easy for x86 to take some of the ARM markets at all.

Your are correct in thinking that Win8 will open the doors for x86's attempt in ARM markets. This is a key difference than most see it. X86 wants these markets much more than arm needs x86 markets. But i wouldnt bet on x86 success at all. Its a fight against the world. ARM is a force to be reckoned.

 

[Red Hawk]

Out of curiosity, how can AMD make x86 processors then? Did they spin off of Intel at some point and take the license with them?

Edit:

I think its more than that. X86 has to compete with an ARMy of competitors. Dont overlook the huge ARM base that currently is massive. Its not very easy for x86 to win like you think. Intel has invested billions just to try to compete with ARM. Llano is not the answer. Llano will not be very competitive in the ARM markets.


The future is still wild. As x86 scales down, ARM will not set still. Intel spent billions thus far, how much more who knows. But arm is still growing very very fast, x86 is at a standstill. As for performance, x86 will be king for some time to come. But for the ARM markets, ARM is the way better architecture for the task. I would not bet on x86 in those (arm) markets at all. That would be crazy to think. ARM is not a joke, it is a very established and successful architecture. Its not gonna be easy for x86 to take some of the ARM markets at all.


Your are correct in thinking that Win8 will open the doors for x86's attempt in ARM markets. This is a key difference than most see it. X86 wants these markets much more than arm needs x86 markets. But i wouldnt bet on x86 success at all. Its a fight against the world. ARM is a force to be reckoned.

Oh, I know ARM is going to stay put in the phone and tablet market no matter what AMD and Intel try. The best they can hope for is coexistence in the tablet space, x86 going in performance tablets while ARM goes in low power tablets. The smartphone market is out of x86's reach for the time being.

happy medium spoke as if ARM was going to force AMD out of the notebook market from both a performance and a battery power perspective. That's just not going to happen. If graphics and processing power is important to a user, x86 is going to win every time. Not to mention that as far as gaming goes x86 has a much larger library of compatible software than ARM. ARM will have a niche as the heart of low-power laptops, but even budget gamers will never consider it.

Let me put it this way: the clock speed and shader count of Tegra 2 is comparable to a Geforce 7100 GS. The clock speed and shader count of Llano is comparable to a Radeon HD 5550.

http://www.gpureview.com/show_cards.php?card1=455&card2=630

Or let me put it this way: Can any ARM tablet play Skyrim on high settings with acceptable frame rates? Just today I was over at my friend's house who was quite content playing Skyrim as such on his laptop with a A8-3500m Llano chip.

 

[Nemesis 1]

A good breakdown:

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...oducts_Lift_Nvidia_s_Revenue_and_Profits.html

Quote,
"Nvidia's GeForce business – which includes desktop and notebook GPUs, memory, chipset products and license revenue from the company's patent cross license agreement with Intel – was up 1.0% compared with the previous quarter, at $644.8 million as chipset revenue declined $47.3 million to $22.4 million in the third quarter. In overall, the situation is not bad and the company manages to offset declines in chipset revenues with sales of discrete GPUs and other related products."

So its supposedly factored in here. I believe it comes to 70 million a quarter if you divide it up for 5 years. This agreement was actually based on intel licensing the right to geforce technologies.




Nvidia puts tons of the cash from this segment back into it. Its not just pure profits, they have to work very hard to make happen. This market is one they worked for. The margins are good but there is a lot that goes into the large sales which make up a majority of the revenue. A lot of cash to make happen.

When its all figured in, I am pretty sure that 1/3 of their profits come from the professional markets. This is the ratio that i believe they still hold to.

Nvidia spends a heck of a lot of their revenue to push into these new markets. They have tons of projects going on all at once. Some of the stuff we see today, some things are yet to be seen. They are branching out in many directions and have no debt. They are managing extremely well and it all steamed from one source of cash. Lots of their cash goes into their push into these other markets. They are doing all this while still making cash to spare. All these things considered its a hell of a task

I just reread the At article on agreement its 6 years . 4 years at $300,000,000 and 2 years at 200,000,000. What chipsets are nv selling ATOM ? Atom sells are falling faster than freefall.

 

[Nemesis 1]

I think its more than that. X86 has to compete with an ARMy of competitors. Dont overlook the huge ARM base that currently is massive. Its not very easy for x86 to win like you think. Intel has invested billions just to try to compete with ARM. Llano is not the answer. Llano will not be very competitive in the ARM markets.

The future is still wild. As x86 scales down, ARM will not set still. Intel spent billions thus far, how much more who knows. But arm is still growing very very fast, x86 is at a standstill. As for performance, x86 will be king for some time to come. But for the ARM markets, ARM is the way better architecture for the task. I would not bet on x86 in those (arm) markets at all. That would be crazy to think. ARM is not a joke, it is a very established and successful architecture. Its not gonna be easy for x86 to take some of the ARM markets at all.

Your are correct in thinking that Win8 will open the doors for x86's attempt in ARM markets. This is a key difference than most see it. X86 wants these markets much more than arm needs x86 markets. But i wouldnt bet on x86 success at all. Its a fight against the world. ARM is a force to be reckoned.

Intel had to keep present atom arch for 5 years . Times up shortly. Next Atom should be OoO

 

[ocre]

I just reread the At article on agreement its 6 years . 4 years at $300,000,000 and 2 years at 200,000,000. What chipsets are nv selling ATOM ? Atom sells are falling faster than freefall.

Isnt it the Ion/Ion2?

 

[Red Hawk]

The next Atom better be OoO, AMD's netbook processors already are OoO.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Isnt it the Ion/Ion2?

Ya . and this is the last year intel has to stay with inorder(2012). The 22nm atom (whatever)should be OoO and a whole new ballgame.

 

[Nemesis 1]

The next Atom better be OoO, AMD's netbook processors already are OoO.

Ya IB at 10watts should do very well . Single core. As soon as IB ultra books are released I am buying each family member one. all but the baby. he will have to wait .

 

[ocre]

Out of curiosity, how can AMD make x86 processors then? Did they spin off of Intel at some point and take the license with them?

Edit:



Oh, I know ARM is going to stay put in the phone and tablet market no matter what AMD and Intel try. The best they can hope for is coexistence in the tablet space, x86 going in performance tablets while ARM goes in low power tablets. The smartphone market is out of x86's reach for the time being.

happy medium spoke as if ARM was going to force AMD out of the notebook market from both a performance and a battery power perspective. That's just not going to happen. If graphics and processing power is important to a user, x86 is going to win every time. Not to mention that as far as gaming goes x86 has a much larger library of compatible software than ARM. ARM will have a niche as the heart of low-power laptops, but even budget gamers will never consider it.

Let me put it this way: the clock speed and shader count of Tegra 2 is comparable to a Geforce 7100 GS. The clock speed and shader count of Llano is comparable to a Radeon HD 5550.

http://www.gpureview.com/show_cards.php?card1=455&card2=630

Or let me put it this way: Can any ARM tablet play Skyrim on high settings with acceptable frame rates? Just today I was over at my friend's house who was quite content playing Skyrim as such on his laptop with a A8-3500m Llano chip.

As it sets, you are correct. There is two ways to look at it, two ways it could go. Your figuring may as well be the way it pans out. But then their are the ones looking at the big picture. ARM is doubling performance yr to yr without increasing power much at all. They expect this trend to continue. X86 isnt moving anywhere near as fast in any way. These ppl see this trend and expect the impact crater to be the opposite of your view. Arm is moving at record breaking speed. There is even way more impressive ARM architectures coming down the pipe, ones which look to instantly put ARM up another huge bump in performance.

Dont forget ARM has many forces pushing the technology while x86 is limited to two real players. ARM is spinning at a very fast pace one that x86 has never known. We went from single to quad in less than 2yrs, all with a massive clock speed increase. You may not be impressed at all by the speed of processing power growth but it is unheard of. If this trend continues then there is no way ARM isnt gonna kill in a few yrs.

I will bet it wont be the speedy view some take. I also dont think its smart to bet against ARM now. Already down the pipe its coming an ARMy of great designs and way more powerful ARM chips. But i dont think they will continue as fast as the last couple yrs. I see x86 continuing to shrink be still being very relevant for several yrs to come. I also see ARM invading more powerful spaces in the portable PC segments in the next couple yrs.

To me there is no reason to think x86 has to die. X86 is good at what its best at, and that isnt its battery powered devices. The best of x86 is the powerful rigs we all love. I used to laugh at the term, gaming laptop, cause it was such a conflicting device. X86 has a place it will hold for some time to come. ARM will edge its way up to more powerful portable gaming devices. Arm will continue to impress in this field and will grow quickly. Its already happening. Many ppl already play games on these devices and they will continue to impress yr after yr.

 

[Nemesis 1]

All may be true but betting against intel and its fabs isn't real smart.

 

[Red Hawk]

As it sets, you are correct. There is two ways to look at it, two ways it could go. Your figuring may as well be the way it pans out. But then their are the ones looking at the big picture. ARM is doubling performance yr to yr without increasing power much at all. They expect this trend to continue. X86 isnt moving anywhere near as fast in any way. These ppl see this trend and expect the impact crater to be the opposite of your view. Arm is moving at record breaking speed. There is even way more impressive ARM architectures coming down the pipe, ones which look to instantly put ARM up another huge bump in performance.

Dont forget ARM has many forces pushing the technology while x86 is limited to two real players. ARM is spinning at a very fast pace one that x86 has never known. We went from single to quad in less than 2yrs, all with a massive clock speed increase. You may not be impressed at all by the speed of processing power growth but it is unheard of. If this trend continues then there is no way ARM isnt gonna kill in a few yrs.

I will bet it wont be the speedy view some take. I also dont think its smart to bet against ARM now. Already down the pipe its coming an ARMy of great designs and way more powerful ARM chips. But i dont think they will continue as fast as the last couple yrs. I see x86 continuing to shrink be still being very relevant for several yrs to come. I also see ARM invading more powerful spaces in the portable PC segments in the next couple yrs.

To me there is no reason to think x86 has to die. X86 is good at what its best at, and that isnt its battery powered devices. The best of x86 is the powerful rigs we all love. I used to laugh at the term, gaming laptop, cause it was such a conflicting device. X86 has a place it will hold for some time to come. ARM will edge its way up to more powerful portable gaming devices. Arm will continue to impress in this field and will grow quickly. Its already happening. Many ppl already play games on these devices and they will continue to impress yr after yr.

AMD's dual core C-50 processor has a 9 watt TDP right now. You're overestimating ARM's power consumption advantage. Anything else is mere conjecture. We've recently seen progress from both ARM and x86.

If you want to talk about the forseeable future, Tegra 3 is specced at 1.3 GHz quad-core CPU, with 12 shader processors on the GPU. Historically one of Nvidia's unified shaders has equaled about 5 AMD shader processors, so let's equate that GPU with a 60 shader AMD GPU. As far as the GPU goes, that's still not even as good as AMD's C-50 processor, which has 80 shaders in the GPU. Granted, the C-50 is a dual core, but I'll address that in a bit. It should go without saying that Tegra 3 doesn't challenge Llano as is. Tegra 3 supposedly released just a few days ago, but I don't see any Tegra 3 tablets for sale on Newegg. It will probably take a few months at least for Tegra 3 devices to hit the market.

Tegra 4 (codenamed Wayne) is projected to be released in both quad core and octa core flavors, with variable GPUs depending on the CPU. At most, the octa core will be matched with a 64 shader GPU. That should equal 320 AMD shaders. Well whaddaya know, that actually matches the next-best Llano GPU precisely (but not the best Llano, which is 400). It's projected to release in 2012, but if Tegra 3 is any indication we'll only see Tegra 4 devices hit the market by 2013. So it will take about 2 years for Nvidia to release an ARM chip that actually competes with (but doesn't exceed) what Llano is currently.

As for CPU core count: don't be fooled. If there's anything AMD's recent attempts at high-end processors have taught us, sheer core count isn't everything. AMD's hexacore and octacore releases have been routinely hammered into the ground by Intel's quad cores. AMD needs quad cores just to barely compete with Intel's dual cores. At a certain point, performance per core becomes more important than the raw amount of cores. As it stands ARM's architecture performs much worse per core than x86 from either AMD and even more so Intel. It may very well turn out that ARM needs all those 8 cores just to compete with a x86 quad core CPU.

And lastly, stop pretending x86 hasn't been moving forward as well. The move to APUs by both Intel and AMD was a pretty substantial leap forward, improving the ratios of performance to power consumption and price. At least in AMD's case, it's not even a question of can they improve: they already have the Bulldozer architecture ready to go. All that's needed is some engineering to fuse a Bulldozer CPU with a GPU. Intel and AMD aren't just going to sit still and twiddle their thumbs while ARM approaches.

 

[ocre]

Are we here again? Okay then Llano is king, Arm is doomed. Why is anyone using ARM CPUs? Tegra 3 is a joke.

As far as performance, Tablets boot in seconds and the apps load nearly instantly. Tegra 3 isnt as week as you may think. One cannot cross compare these different platforms easily or accurately. Llano is not good enough to compete in the ARM space, not by a long shot. Intel still hasnt broke into that market. And before you claim SW, ask yourself why the SW followed ARM like it has? Why is the software gonna continue to follow ARM and its massive user base?

X86 has been around forever, its not very hard to get software for it. Your not seeing the big picture, Arm has a huge footing in their own markets, x86 hasnt made a single dent there. If its power advantages or not, this is how it is. I am inclined to believe that it doesnt matter much at all now at this point. There is too much established for ARM at this time.

I also see that x86 is still trying to cut back power, so maybe you could tell them its good enough, arm dont have much of a power advantage. They could save some money if they knew it wasnt a big deal like you seem to be sure of.

It matters little, ARM is already well established. Its user base is growing at record breaking speeds. Llano will do nothing to slow down ARM. Many things factor into play here, power usage is just part of it. The massive success of ARM is guaranteed. Its already happening. When x86 or llano starts taking some of ARMs market we can talk about it, until then you can claim whatever you like. I dont see it happening like you say.

You are welcome to your own prediction. What i see is ARM dominating in their markets and those markets are overspilling into low powered x86 spaces. When that changes, i will take note. X86 market shrinking to a crawl, ARM markets doubling in less than a yr. When this changes, i will take note. Arm CPUs are also doubling in performance in less than a yr, x86 inching 15 to 20% each yr. (minus AMD). When this changes, i will take note. I dont see Llano as a magic chip doing much at all. But if it does happen to change the world, I will take note.