Nvidia: A Visit From Jen-Hsun Huang_no gpu news

[notty22]

Nvidia: A Visit From Jen-Hsun Huang

Lack of any urgency to mention anything new in discrete gpu , continues to point till 2012 for any new gpu's.

Huang made the point at the opening of the discussion that Nvidia has moved away from the Intel (INTC) chipset business that was its bread and butter for years, and is now in two growth businesses, discrete graphics processors (GPUs) and the “Tegra” line of application processors for tablets and smartphones.
Contrary to some cautious statements by Huang following the company’s fiscal Q2 report last month, Huang implied in the meeting that the Tegra business will see some growth this quarter. He says the latest version, “Tegra 3,” code-named “Kal-El,” is getting more design wins than Tegra 2, and that devices with the chip will be on the market in time for the U.S. holiday season. “This quarter or Q4″ is what he said.
Huang sees Tegra being a $1 billion business next year.

Another interesting thread of the meeting was Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows 8, about which Huang was extremely enthusiastic. By the end of next year, he expects Nvidia’s Tegra will be in both tablets and PCs running Windows 8.
The same $199 PC that is the bottom-of-the-barrel today will be “exquisite” when running Windows 8, said Huang. It will be super light, and will have a battery running for days and days. Making the equivalent of Apple‘s (AAPL) MacBook “Air” running on an processor based on ARM Holdings (ARMH) designs will be trivial, Huang suggested.

 

[happy medium]

Huang sees Tegra being a $1 billion business next year.

Holy.........smokes.

 

[SirPauly]

I can see that because the Consumer Product Business did see a 267 percent growth from Q2 2010 compared to Q2 2011 -- can easily see 250+ million per quarter to hit the billion dollar revenue for 2012.

 

[Kenmitch]

Lack of any urgency to mention anything new in discrete gpu , continues to point till 2012 for any new gpu's.

No news doesn't equal bad news....All it means is nothing to report of any value at this time.

 

[RussianSensation]

NV's business strategy continues to show that as a firm they are much more diversified than AMD and far better positioned to take advantage of future global trends and heightened consumer demand for tablets and smartphones.

Looks like NV as a firm didn't even blink after Fermi was delayed 6 months. I got my popcorn ready when threads start popping up how NV again "lost next gen round" when HD7900 series launches by 1 quarter ahead of Kepler....

"The company sees revenue of $4.7 billion to $5 billion for fiscal 2013, starting in Jan. 30, 2013, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins seen at 51% and 53%, respectively.

The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for revenue of $4.45 billion in fiscal 2013." ~ Thomson

 

[Nintendesert]

I too am excited at the prospect of Win8 running on Kal-El, if WP7 is any indication it's going to be a very very nice experience.

 

[tviceman]

NV's business strategy continues to show that as a firm they are much more diversified than AMD and far better positioned to take advantage of future global trends and heightened consumer demand for tablets and smartphones.

When Windows 8 hits, I don't see how Nvidia won't have over a billion dollars in yearly revenue from their Tegra divison. I think Nvidia is going to have more CPU's in tablets, laptops, and servers than AMD will within the next 3 yeras. Notice I didn't add phones to the mix because that would make it an outright unfair comparison. In fact, I further think that on cpu market share for all electronic devices, they're going to cut into Intel's massive lead on a quarterly basis.

Nvidia's 6 to 9 month refresh strategy used in the graphics industry for years and years is going to wreak havoc on other ARM cpu makers and will force many of them out of the market. I've made this analogy before - Tegra1 was like NV1 - it sucked and hardly anyone bought it. Tegra2 was like the RivaTNT, TNT2 - it was a pretty good product that wasn't the best but was very popular. Tegra3 is going to be the Nvidia's GeForce - it will be the fastest when it comes out and will set the stage for their next products (Tegra4 & 5) that will absolutely trounce the competition.

 

[Meghan54]

NV's business strategy continues to show that as a firm they are much more diversified than AMD and far better positioned to take advantage of future global trends and heightened consumer demand for tablets and smartphones.

Looks like NV as a firm didn't even blink after Fermi was delayed 6 months. I got my popcorn ready when threads start popping up how NV again "lost next gen round" when HD7900 series launches by 1 quarter ahead of Kepler....

"The company sees revenue of $4.7 billion to $5 billion for fiscal 2013, starting in Jan. 30, 2013, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins seen at 51% and 53%, respectively.

The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for revenue of $4.45 billion in fiscal 2013." ~ Thomson

I saw that, too. Nvidia's never really been strapped for cash. But don't let the gross revenue and margins fool you.

For instance, Nvidia's net profit for the first six months of the current FY is $287M on revenue of $1.98B. Of course, this is a big turn around compared to the same time last FY when Nvidia had revenue of $1.8B and lost $3.4M.

And also remember that part of this current 6 month FY's net profit includes $153M in payments from Intel, listed as two payments of $65.9M and $87.9M for the first half of FY 2012. There will be an additional two payments for the second half of FY 2012 to total $300M for FY 2012.

Intel is making, or has made, $300M payments to Nvidia each January in FY 2011, 2012, 2013, and $200M each January in FY 2014, 2015, and 2016. Nvidia's deferring accounting the payments into quarterly payments, stretching them out.

(All figures taken from Nvidia's quarterly statement/SEC filing.)

So, just don't forget, gross revenue and margins don't always equate into huge profits.....they don't. So far this FY, Nvidia's true profit is $100M on $1.83B (I've deducted the $153M from Intel because the settlement payments, while Nvidia has to include them as profit/income, doesn't reflect sales). I really put little stock in gross margins.....they don't tell you much. Too many accounting tricks to show a great gross but when the net comes up, it's nowhere near the gross.....Nvidia's net margins right now run just over 14%.

 

[ViRGE]

I like this quote. I think it sums up NVIDIA's situation nicely:

Huang was referring to TI’s lack of software innovation. He says most of Nvidia’s engineering staff is focused on software as a key differentiator in the smartphone and tablet market.

They may or may not have the fastest hardware, but they have more experience with Windows than all of the other SoC makers combined. Being able to go to device makers with that kind of track record is going to get them in a ton of Win8 ARM devices. So long as those take off, NVIDIA will be in a great position.

 

[notty22]

It seems the CEO is doing a little press tour.
SlashGear



NVIDIA CEO Warns Competitors To Go Mobile or be "In Deep Turd"

 

[Red Storm]

I like this quote. I think it sums up NVIDIA's situation nicely:
They may or may not have the fastest hardware, but they have more experience with Windows than all of the other SoC makers combined. Being able to go to device makers with that kind of track record is going to get them in a ton of Win8 ARM devices. So long as those take off, NVIDIA will be in a great position.

Am I the only one that doesn't see ARM-Windows taking off? The only reason why I ever needed Windows was for games, but Windows running on ARM doesn't give you that. I don't see any reason why anyone would want to use a new, non-backward compatible version of Windows on a Tablet, unless they're just looking for something different than Android or iOS, but we've seen how WP7 has turned out thus far.

Back on topic, always looking forward to better hardware for tablets!

 

[SirPauly]

I can see Arm Windows 8 starting out for some mobile platforms coupled with their expertise with GPU's, Optimus and software.

 

[Genx87]

I too am excited at the prospect of Win8 running on Kal-El, if WP7 is any indication it's going to be a very very nice experience.

I would expect the sucessor of Kal-El called Wayne to be running Win8 tablets. Oh the expected performance of Wayne is 2x Kal El

Really wish I bought Nvidia stock. I may still do it.

 

[Genx87]

Am I the only one that doesn't see ARM-Windows taking off? The only reason why I ever needed Windows was for games, but Windows running on ARM doesn't give you that. I don't see any reason why anyone would want to use a new, non-backward compatible version of Windows on a Tablet, unless they're just looking for something different than Android or iOS, but we've seen how WP7 has turned out thus far.

Back on topic, always looking forward to better hardware for tablets!

I'd think Windows 8 tablets have a better chance of making that market explode than Android. I think tablets have a huge future. But for avg people they will enjoy a familiar GUI.

I also expect to see Tegra powered low end laptops running Windows 8. Fusion watch out.

 

[Dribble]

Personally I think it's the quad A15 chip that'll be the first to offer enough performance to really consider replacing x86 machines. That'll be when I look at buying a tablet, hopefully by then we'll also have better higher res screens, and a more mature os too. That's also when I expect the tablet market to explode.

Kal-El is kind of in between major generations. It biggest win factor is the fact it exists at all - none of the competitors were geared up to introduce a chip mid year like that so it becomes the defacto performance champ until the A15's arrive. After it comes out this means if you want a non-apple high end tablet you have to go to nvidia. It also means they can reposition tegra 2 as a budget chip and that gives nvidia great market coverage.

 

[Red Storm]

I also expect to see Tegra powered low end laptops running Windows 8. Fusion watch out.

Not sure what Fusion has to watch out for. You aren't going to be able to run any current Windows games on an ARM processor. I feel like the netbook fad has passed, and now people are all about tablets. I guess we'll have to wait and see with Windows 8.

 

[tviceman]

More fun news: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20102167-94/nvidia-ceo-sees-tenfold-growth-in-mobile-chip-biz/

Huang, speaking to a roundtable of reporters today, said he expects revenue from its mobile-chip business to grow tenfold, to $20 billion by 2015. In comparison, the graphics processor business is expected to grow 75 percent, to $7 billion in the same time frame.

Nvidia is becoming the competiton Intel doesn't want to have.

 

[brybir]

More fun news: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20102167-94/nvidia-ceo-sees-tenfold-growth-in-mobile-chip-biz/



Nvidia is becoming the competiton Intel doesn't want to have.

That is good for all of us then. A healthy competitive marketplace is the best thing that we can all hope for regardless of which companies are behind them.

Having massive companies like Intel, who have arguably some of the best engineering talent in the industry, along with massive and unmatched manufacturing capabilities, makes for a pretty fierce competition heating up in the areas where they will compete.

And in other areas, Nvidia faces large companies like Qualcomm, TI, and others, many of whom are not resting on their laurels. Qualcomm alone posted a 1.17 Billion dollar net profit for Q1 2011 and are on track this year to spend well over two billion dollars in research and development.

Other news I have seen around are announcements from Qualcomm about their next gen parts that if they are even half of what they announce, will present serious competition to Nvidia. Same with TI, who will be the reference vendor for the next Nexus phone with ice cream sandwich.

So, I think we can get all rosy that the world as we know it all makes sense, but I think the reality is we are going to see several large companies with a ton of money and excellent engineering talent all working toward taking a part of the market. This will be great for consumer but I would be hesitant to proclaim anyone will be an outright winner, regardless of what the CEO's of various companies say.

 

[3DVagabond]

nVidia and/or AMD can try and compete with Intel all they want to. Until TSMC and/or Global Foundries can though, they aren't really going to be able to. It's just way more work for all of those entities to get it going all together compared to what Intel is capable of.