NTSB rules that Tesla shares blame in deadly 2016 crash

[urvile]

There's safety implications for not pursuing it also. There will be crashes, there will be deaths. I would hazard to guess that the amount though will be far, far fewer with autonomously driven vehicles being the norm than human driven.

For sure. That's not the point I am making. I am sure the introduction of fly by wire in aircraft improved safety considerably. It's an issue of the maturity of the technology and how the control systems will be developed, standards, testing, oversight etc.

It's dangerous if it doesn't work correctly and to ensure it works correctly it needs to be developed using common standards. Which by the sounds of it. It won't be. There have already been cars sold by major companies that had defects that caused people to die. Which comes back to the last sentence of my first paragraph.

It's not a miracle technology dude. This sort of thing is very hard to develop and get right. Although all they really do is use a lot of existing technology.

 

[urvile]

Also when autonomous cars are approved for sale (and now there is one set of laws for standard cars and one for autonomous cars). How much do you think they will cost?

 

[JSt0rm]

Also when autonomous cars are approved for sale (and now there is one set of laws for standard cars and one for autonomous cars). How much do you think they will cost?

you are asking the wrong question. How much is each autonomous car worth to uber? Thats the number you can start with and work your way back.

 

[JSt0rm]

how much is a self driving semi worth to the transportation industry?

 

[UglyCasanova]

There have already been cars sold by major companies that had defects that caused people to die. Which comes back to the last sentence of my first paragraph.

That's been the case for as long as the car industry has been around; ignition switch problems, airbags, accelerators, tires, you name it. When your traveling in a hunk of metal weighing several thousand pounds going 70 mph it's never going to be perfectly safe.

 

[Zorba]

the amount of money on the table for self driving vehicles is staggering. People are sprinting to get it done.

The problem is a lack of regulation and oversight, and all the money is currently being spent to prevent that from happening. A soon as the car hit the road and start killing people, there will be a mass rejection of the technology and the liability could put companies out of business, depending on how quickly its caught and how much they try to hide it.

I personally don't think the current tech and auto companies involved have the discipline or experience to design hardware/software at the safety and maturity levels required. Not to mention the cost of implementing truly reliable systems on a per vehicle cost.

Maybe I'm biased because I work in aviation, but I just don't see how fully autonomous cars could exist in the real world without being held to similar or higher standards. Hell, even aviation is having issues figuring out how to ensure proper safety on some of the latest systems.

 

[UglyCasanova]

Also when autonomous cars are approved for sale (and now there is one set of laws for standard cars and one for autonomous cars). How much do you think they will cost?

They are going to have to compete with non-autonomous vehicles so I'd imagine not so much more that people don't buy them.

 

[Zorba]

It will happen for sure. It's essentially the same principal as designing and implementing aircraft control systems but with a lot more variables and a lot more danger. Other cars in close proximity and speed, car system failures and speed etc.

One huge difference, though, is in aircraft the pilots still handle almost all off normal situations. Probably the most autonomous feature on aircraft is auto-land. Even there the pilot backs up that system. Autoland requires extreme redundancy and the highest levels of software testing and revision control. As an example, the 757 requires three fully independent autopilot computers running, which have mostly independent inputs, any disagreement the system shuts off and the pilot takes over.

UAVs are different, because they aren't held to the same standards by any degree, since their failure wouldn't lead to a loss of life.

 

[urvile]

One huge difference, though, is in aircraft the pilots still handle almost all off normal situations. Probably the most autonomous feature on aircraft is auto-land. Even there the pilot backs up that system. Autoland requires extreme redundancy and the highest levels of software testing and revision control. As an example, the 757 requires three fully independent autopilot computers running, which have mostly independent inputs, any disagreement the system shuts off and the pilot takes over.

UAVs are different, because they aren't held to the same standards by any degree, since their failure wouldn't lead to a loss of life.

Interesting. I have no experience with this stuff outside of some real time programming I did at university in ada. Oh the horror. It seems insane to me that they are just going to let companies with a track record of selling vehicles with serious defects develop something as complex as an autonomous driving system for cars in isolation but hey what do I know?

 

[urvile]

They are going to have to compete with non-autonomous vehicles so I'd imagine not so much more that people don't buy them.

I doubt it buddy. I think autonomous cars will essentially be a novelty and therefore very expensive for quite some time. Until they become more mainstream and the technology filters down but we shall see!

 

[urvile]

you are asking the wrong question. How much is each autonomous car worth to uber? Thats the number you can start with and work your way back.

Probably a lot cheaper to employ a mexican to drive for them. Provided there are any left in the country.

 

[zinfamous]

I don't even bother looking over my shoulder most of the time when changing lanes any more. I just look to see if the blind spot detection is activated. Plus the technology is getting cheaper and cheaper. My car is nothing special it's a mazda 3 but it's got a lot of features. Including a HUD which is awesome btw.

yea, well my Mazda3 has power windows!

 

[Puffnstuff]

Wait. I thought he promised truckers he would stop self driving?

With Donald a promise made is a promise broken.

 

[UglyCasanova]

I doubt it buddy. I think autonomous cars will essentially be a novelty and therefore very expensive for quite some time. Until they become more mainstream and the technology filters down but we shall see!

They said that about personal computers too and yet here we are..

 

[UglyCasanova]

yea, well my Mazda3 has power windows!

My Mazda 3 has a big scratch on the bottom where I hit a curb

 

[Bitek]

Yes, but do TSLA shares share any blame? My portfolio doesn't need a crash.

 

[urvile]

They said that about personal computers too and yet here we are..

True enough. It's not quite the same thing...but PCs did start out very expensive. Especially back in the days before windows and IIRC didn't even have colour screens. Which is kind of my point but it's all good. I could go back to my mazda 3 analogy and how technology filters down but I don't think I will bother. I am just going to keep on drinking some beer. Cheers.

However you might find that autonomous cars are not going to be a technology for the masses. Not immediately anyway and there are a lot of factors as to why but beer. Delicious beer.

I had to spend 45mins under my desk at work today and it sucked.

 

[JSt0rm]

They said that about personal computers too and yet here we are..

It's amazing to me how many people on a tech forum think this isn't happening.

 

[urvile]

It's amazing to me how many people on a tech forum think this isn't happening.

It's crazy isn't it? Let us know how your autonomous car handles when you get one. I still think a mexican can do a better job. Provided they haven't all been shipped off to trump themed "camps".

 

[UglyCasanova]

Huh?

 

[JSt0rm]

It's crazy isn't it? Let us know how your autonomous car handles when you get one. I still think a mexican can do a better job. Provided they haven't all been shipped off to trump themed "camps".

i dont know the difference between a Mexican or other driver but im pretty sure autonomous cars will be safer by any metric. And I'm sure everyone of the forums will be talking about them when I get one. I'll keep my Porsche though. and the autocar.

 

[urvile]

i dont know the difference between a Mexican or other driver but im pretty sure autonomous cars will be safer by any metric. And I'm sure everyone of the forums will be talking about them when I get one. I'll keep my Porsche though. and the autocar.

Sweet dude. I look forward to it. Although I will just add that for companies like uber or taxi providers it comes down to cost plus risk and if it works out cheaper to hire mexicans based on statistics (drunk mexicans causing crashes etc.) and you know other stuff then that is what they will do.

It all comes down to cost and risk mitigation and balance in between. What does that have to do with autonomous cars I am not sure and I don't really care. I am sure there is a lesson in that for all of us though.

I should also add that I am just using mexicans as an example I could just as easily use slovenians.

 

[urvile]

another way of looking at it is. Is it worth uber's money/investment to buy a fleet of autonomous cars which they are then responsible for (maintenance, legal responsibility etc.) or is it more profitable/preferable to provide an app/IT infrastructure to people who own and operate their own vehicles and then take a percentage?

 

[JSt0rm]

another way of looking at it is. Is it worth uber's money/investment to buy a fleet of autonomous cars which they are then responsible for (maintenance, legal responsibility etc.) or is it more profitable/preferable to provide an app/IT infrastructure to people who own and operate their own vehicles and then take a percentage?

man you really dont read up on this stuff do you? UBER is already investing heavily in autonomous cars. In fact thats the end road to profitability that they tell their investors.

 

[pmv]

man you really dont read up on this stuff do you? UBER is already investing heavily in autonomous cars. In fact thats the end road to profitability that they tell their investors.

They might be investing in developing them, I don't see that their investment is producing much in the way of usable results. The figures I've seen say they still can only manage less than a mile of self-driving before the human driver has to intervene. If you have to have a human driver sitting there ready to grab the wheel, where's the added profit going to come from?

This is an unresolvable argument, because only time will tell, but I just don't believe these things will ever be good enough for mass use. The research may well produce more safety features for human-driven cars, but fully autonomous ones still seem to be in the realm of SF (er, I mean science fiction, not San Fransisco!).