November NPD Numbers

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: Queasy

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
Those are good numbers for the PS3 COD and Assassin's creed, showing that PS3 versions of cross-platform games are worth the extra effort. It's not going to convince anyone to make PS3 exclusives for the US market though.

Throw in the fact that neither Uncharted: Drake's Fortune or Ratchet & Clank made the top 10 and that puts a further damper on PS3 exclusives.

i can't really say i'm not that surprised, especially about uncharted.

while the game kicks MAJOR ass, it is hardly advertised anywhere. i don't even think I would have known about it if I didn't always look at game stuff online. i heard there is commercials out for it but i have yet to see it myself, and I watch a lot of TV 🙂.

Oddly enough, I barely watch TV and I think I've seen two commercials of Uncharted. I think they were on G4 though when I was watching Ninja Warrior.

 

[Aikouka]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
1. non gamers don't buy near as many games as gamers do. this has clearly been shown by the attach rate of the nintendo wii.

I don't think the Wii numbers necessarily show that. I know looking at people I know with a Wii is not statistically significant, but they are gamers and they only own 2 or 3 games for the Wii because there simply aren't enough games to get. If I owned a Wii, I would probably have around that many games as well. On the flip side, I have over 30 games for the 360.

I do think that the Wii is going the way of the N64 and Gamecube and what that really means is that most of the great games come from Nintendo. The abysmal 3rd party support is what really shut the Gamecube out of the race as it wasn't a horrible system and was pretty much as "graphically good" as the other two (three if you count Dreamcast).

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: Aikouka
I do think that the Wii is going the way of the N64 and Gamecube and what that really means is that most of the great games come from Nintendo. The abysmal 3rd party support is what really shut the Gamecube out of the race as it wasn't a horrible system and was pretty much as "graphically good" as the other two (three if you count Dreamcast).

The Wii is getting 3rd party support....it is just shovelware and crapware however. Nintendo needs to raise its standard of what comes out on the system.

 

[tatteredpotato]

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I agree with purbeast that the Wii will go the way of the GC and N64, the only difference is that a lot more units will be sold. I firmly believe that no matter how many people buy Wii's, the attach rate will still be abysmal, because the typical non-gamers who are snatching up this system will not be buying games all the time. I mean, if they didn't have Mario, and not including Wii Play (which I still contend should not be considered on ANY software sales list), the only other thing is the mass market GH3. The fact that Mario, GH3, and a 10-minute collection of mini-games shows what kind of market buys the Wii.

But again, I think the Wii will tread in the territory of only first-party games being the shining light every year, everything else will go by the wayside for the Wii. Plus, I think that once this Wii craze dies down and every mom and pop figures out that they don't need to buy one because of hype, sales will plummet tremendously, going below even that of the PS3 sales. I'm almost willing to stake money that this will happen by this time next year.

On a side note, I like how Nintendo claims they've been at max production the whole time, selling right above 500k units every month, then all of a sudden they pull an extra 450k of them out of their ass just in time for the holiday season. If they are really throttling inventory on purpose, kudos to them, it's working perfectly to their advantage right now.

Also keep in mind that Nintendo makes money on hardware, so they don't need the higher attach ratio to make more money.

 

[BigJ]

Originally posted by: ObscureCaucasian
Also keep in mind that Nintendo makes money on hardware, so they don't need the higher attach ratio to make more money.

Even though they make money on the hardware, they still stand to make far more money on software. The total software sales for a system should be many, many times over the number of hardware units sold.

Numbers from that top 10:
Microsoft moved nearly 3.5m software units, with Nintendo moving almost 2m software units. Comparing that to hardware units sold this month, that's almost 5x as many 360s sold and 2x the number of Wiis sold. Comparing that to overall numbers (we'll use US sales since these numbers only include that) that's 1/3 of total 360 sales and 2/7 of total Wii sales in a single month.

 

[randay]

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: Queasy

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
Those are good numbers for the PS3 COD and Assassin's creed, showing that PS3 versions of cross-platform games are worth the extra effort. It's not going to convince anyone to make PS3 exclusives for the US market though.

Throw in the fact that neither Uncharted: Drake's Fortune or Ratchet & Clank made the top 10 and that puts a further damper on PS3 exclusives.

i can't really say i'm not that surprised, especially about uncharted.

while the game kicks MAJOR ass, it is hardly advertised anywhere. i don't even think I would have known about it if I didn't always look at game stuff online. i heard there is commercials out for it but i have yet to see it myself, and I watch a lot of TV 🙂.

dont forget all the nasty tearing!

oh and its nice to see that the playstation family is still outselling the wii! \o/

 

[NaOH]

Novelty really wears out quick, and the lack of any decent titles really makes me not want to keep one (have one up on ebay). I thought about keeping it, but it's mainly due to the hype of it being rare and etc. I do fine with my 360 + halo + rockband and my PC with COD4 + crysis + TF2

 

[blurredvision]

Originally posted by: ObscureCaucasian

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I agree with purbeast that the Wii will go the way of the GC and N64, the only difference is that a lot more units will be sold. I firmly believe that no matter how many people buy Wii's, the attach rate will still be abysmal, because the typical non-gamers who are snatching up this system will not be buying games all the time. I mean, if they didn't have Mario, and not including Wii Play (which I still contend should not be considered on ANY software sales list), the only other thing is the mass market GH3. The fact that Mario, GH3, and a 10-minute collection of mini-games shows what kind of market buys the Wii.

But again, I think the Wii will tread in the territory of only first-party games being the shining light every year, everything else will go by the wayside for the Wii. Plus, I think that once this Wii craze dies down and every mom and pop figures out that they don't need to buy one because of hype, sales will plummet tremendously, going below even that of the PS3 sales. I'm almost willing to stake money that this will happen by this time next year.

On a side note, I like how Nintendo claims they've been at max production the whole time, selling right above 500k units every month, then all of a sudden they pull an extra 450k of them out of their ass just in time for the holiday season. If they are really throttling inventory on purpose, kudos to them, it's working perfectly to their advantage right now.

Also keep in mind that Nintendo makes money on hardware, so they don't need the higher attach ratio to make more money.

I don't care one bit about how much money each of the big 3 are making. I'm just discussing what I think their position is right now in the industry, and where I think it's headed. I just think that when the Wii loses the wind in it's sails, it will fall and fall fast.

And to make a comment on the opposite side of the fence, how you can guys talk like Galaxy is a flop because it "only" sold just over a million units? Smells like success to me, and it will only sell more through the end of the year IMO. I don't care how many systems you have on the market, a million units of software sold in such a short time is a success.

 

[ShotgunSteven]

I would say about 90% of the people I know that have a Wii are interested in getting Super Mario Galaxy, but most of them cannot even find it in stock anywhere.

 

[bl4ckfl4g]

I wish I could rent a Wii to play Super Mario Galaxy. I'm pretty sure it is the only game I'd ever want to play on it but I do really want to play it.

 

[Indolent]

Originally posted by: ShotgunSteven
I would say about 90% of the people I know that have a Wii are interested in getting Super Mario Galaxy, but most of them cannot even find it in stock anywhere.

I see Mario Galaxy in stock everywhere. Where do you live that it's sold out?

 

[Slew Foot]

SMG was hard to find for a week or so, but its pretty much everywhere now. GH3 on the other hand...

 

[techwanabe]

Originally posted by: ShotgunSteven
I would say about 90% of the people I know that have a Wii are interested in getting Super Mario Galaxy, but most of them cannot even find it in stock anywhere.

Really? I just casually checked 3 or 4 stores here in Syracuse and it was in stock at all three. In fact the copy I got for my daughter was used!

 

[Tiamat]

Originally posted by: tfinch2
http://cache.kotaku.com/assets...06/12/prints_money.gif

:laugh:

 

[her34]

Originally posted by: blurredvision

Originally posted by: ObscureCaucasian

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I agree with purbeast that the Wii will go the way of the GC and N64, the only difference is that a lot more units will be sold. I firmly believe that no matter how many people buy Wii's, the attach rate will still be abysmal, because the typical non-gamers who are snatching up this system will not be buying games all the time. I mean, if they didn't have Mario, and not including Wii Play (which I still contend should not be considered on ANY software sales list), the only other thing is the mass market GH3. The fact that Mario, GH3, and a 10-minute collection of mini-games shows what kind of market buys the Wii.

But again, I think the Wii will tread in the territory of only first-party games being the shining light every year, everything else will go by the wayside for the Wii. Plus, I think that once this Wii craze dies down and every mom and pop figures out that they don't need to buy one because of hype, sales will plummet tremendously, going below even that of the PS3 sales. I'm almost willing to stake money that this will happen by this time next year.

On a side note, I like how Nintendo claims they've been at max production the whole time, selling right above 500k units every month, then all of a sudden they pull an extra 450k of them out of their ass just in time for the holiday season. If they are really throttling inventory on purpose, kudos to them, it's working perfectly to their advantage right now.

Also keep in mind that Nintendo makes money on hardware, so they don't need the higher attach ratio to make more money.

I don't care one bit about how much money each of the big 3 are making. I'm just discussing what I think their position is right now in the industry, and where I think it's headed. I just think that when the Wii loses the wind in it's sails, it will fall and fall fast.

And to make a comment on the opposite side of the fence, how you can guys talk like Galaxy is a flop because it "only" sold just over a million units? Smells like success to me, and it will only sell more through the end of the year IMO. I don't care how many systems you have on the market, a million units of software sold in such a short time is a success.

it's quite possible that these factors:
*price cut
*wii fit
*wii music
*mario kart/smash brothers, for traditional gamers

will ensure that this craze goes on through all of 2008 as well

 

[BD2003]

Originally posted by: RagingBITCH

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: purbeast0
yea but if no one is buying many games for it then it doesn't really matter.

Two things you are forgetting:

1) Non-gamers buy non-gamer-games.

2) With the installed base of the Wii projected to be much, much higher than the X360 and PS3, it can get away with a far lower attach rate and still move lots of software units.

1. non gamers don't buy near as many games as gamers do. this has clearly been shown by the attach rate of the nintendo wii.

2. again the installed base doesn't really matter if not many people are buying games, no matter how many units are being sold. sure some first/second games will come out, but if those games aren't selling very well then the 3rd/4th gen games that devs would be making probably won't be made.

the upside to the wii is that the development cost for it are not that much so i believe thats why you are seeing a ton of shovelware coming out because it's not nearly as much of a risk as it would be to put out crap on the PS3 or Xbox360.

also as blurred pointed out, it makes no sense how all of a sudden nintendo has almost 500k more units for sale this past month JUST in time for the holiday. i still believe that this is an artificial drought of the nintendo wii brought on by nintendo to keep this unit as the "hot item" for as long as possible. nintendo is making a profit on every wii that is shipped so they want to sell as many of those as possible and put more money in their pocket.

The shortage of Wii's is completely intentional. It's hard to believe a company of that size and caliber can't manufacture/crank out enough units. It really is ingenius on their part though.

In regards to the list - surprising that the PS2 outsold the PS3. And COD4 is just blowing everything away...that's pretty amazing.

They lose money on every console NOT sold, especially when some of those non-sales might end up as PS2 or 360 purchases. If anything, theyre kicking themselves for pricing it so low when demand has outstripped supply for over 12 months at this point. They probably could have sold just as many consoles at $279 or $299.

The shortage itself isnt intentional - they would love to put out more consoles, as there is such a wide gap between supply and demand that they could sell a few more million this xmas and still not be able to fully meet demand. What is intentional is their slow ramping up of production - especially now that its too late for xmas. You dont just build facilities, train workers etc overnight. Theyre tearing them out at about a rate of one per second, which is pretty insane as it is.

Before launch I predicted you wouldnt be able to easily buy one at retail until March 07, even after the majority of my friends were confident youd just be able to waltz right in on launch day. At this point, I wouldnt even bet on March 08. Between these preorder vouchers, Wii fit and Smash bros, I dont think itll even come close until summer, and even then, I'm expecting it to be regularly OOS through most of 08, unless they REALLY ramp up production.

 

[BigJ]

Originally posted by: RagingBITCH
In regards to the list - surprising that the PS2 outsold the PS3. And COD4 is just blowing everything away...that's pretty amazing.

What's so surprising about the PS2 outselling the PS3? For this year, up until September the Wii was the only console beating it. For the entire life of the 360 up until Septmber, it's been outsold by the PS2 also.

It's a cheap console with a huge library that's affordable for pretty much everyone.

 

[Crafty35a]

Originally posted by: BigJ

Originally posted by: ObscureCaucasian
Also keep in mind that Nintendo makes money on hardware, so they don't need the higher attach ratio to make more money.

Even though they make money on the hardware, they still stand to make far more money on software. The total software sales for a system should be many, many times over the number of hardware units sold.

Numbers from that top 10:
Microsoft moved nearly 3.5m software units, with Nintendo moving almost 2m software units. Comparing that to hardware units sold this month, that's almost 5x as many 360s sold and 2x the number of Wiis sold. Comparing that to overall numbers (we'll use US sales since these numbers only include that) that's 1/3 of total 360 sales and 2/7 of total Wii sales in a single month.

According to these numbers, Wii's attach rate is pretty damn close to 360's. (~28.6% vs. 33.3%). Why is everyone acting like the Wii's attach rate is so bad?

 

[skace]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
I really think the future of the Wii is going to go the route of the GC and the N64.

That really isn't a risky bet though. Expecting the Wii to maintain status queue for Nintendo. The N64 was worse than the GC and the hope is that the GC will be worse than the Wii in that respect. But I would never expect a complete 180 (a complete 180 would be the Wii turning into the next PS2 with an absolutely massive catalog).

Regardless, go go DS!

 

[eelw]

Originally posted by: BD2003
They lose money on every console NOT sold, especially when some of those non-sales might end up as PS2 or 360 purchases. If anything, theyre kicking themselves for pricing it so low when demand has outstripped supply for over 12 months at this point. They probably could have sold just as many consoles at $279 or $299.

Yeah, Nintendo could have sold the Wii for $299 without most blinking an eye.

 

[tk149]

Originally posted by: RagingBITCH

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: purbeast0
yea but if no one is buying many games for it then it doesn't really matter.

Two things you are forgetting:

1) Non-gamers buy non-gamer-games.

2) With the installed base of the Wii projected to be much, much higher than the X360 and PS3, it can get away with a far lower attach rate and still move lots of software units.

1. non gamers don't buy near as many games as gamers do. this has clearly been shown by the attach rate of the nintendo wii.

2. again the installed base doesn't really matter if not many people are buying games, no matter how many units are being sold. sure some first/second games will come out, but if those games aren't selling very well then the 3rd/4th gen games that devs would be making probably won't be made.

the upside to the wii is that the development cost for it are not that much so i believe thats why you are seeing a ton of shovelware coming out because it's not nearly as much of a risk as it would be to put out crap on the PS3 or Xbox360.

also as blurred pointed out, it makes no sense how all of a sudden nintendo has almost 500k more units for sale this past month JUST in time for the holiday. i still believe that this is an artificial drought of the nintendo wii brought on by nintendo to keep this unit as the "hot item" for as long as possible. nintendo is making a profit on every wii that is shipped so they want to sell as many of those as possible and put more money in their pocket.

The shortage of Wii's is completely intentional. It's hard to believe a company of that size and caliber can't manufacture/crank out enough units. It really is ingenius on their part though.

In regards to the list - surprising that the PS2 outsold the PS3. And COD4 is just blowing everything away...that's pretty amazing.

It's amazing how AT has so many experts in sourcing, manufacturing, and distribution on a worldwide scale. :roll: