November 7th, 2007.. I predict China's bubble will burst.

[brxndxn]

Okay..

China's entire stock market went up over 100% last year.. and is up way over 100% this year. That's stupid growth.. Chinese company earnings are only awesome because they're based on their own awesome stock pricing.

I predict November 7th, 2007 will be the day the Chinese market drops 20%+ in one day. Why? Gut feeling.

So.. when do you think it will burst?

 

[George P Burdell]

:roll:

 

[Savij]

I'll buy that. If we can spread the word, and enough people get nervous then maybe it'll come true. I'll work in the north, and you get the south. Together we'll bring down the chinese economy!

 

[Imdmn04]

If the Chinese economy goes down, we are going right down with it.

Back in February, when the Chinese stocks dropped 9 percent in one day, Dow dropped 500 points the next day.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: brxndxn
Okay..

China's entire stock market went up over 100% last year.. and is up way over 100% this year. That's stupid growth.. Chinese company earnings are only awesome because they're based on their own awesome stock pricing.

I predict November 7th, 2007 will be the day the Chinese market drops 20%+ in one day. Why? Gut feeling.

So.. when do you think it will burst?

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting (or buying puts) on the Chinese stock market? I have a gut feeling you aren't.

 

[brxndxn]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: brxndxn
Okay..

China's entire stock market went up over 100% last year.. and is up way over 100% this year. That's stupid growth.. Chinese company earnings are only awesome because they're based on their own awesome stock pricing.

I predict November 7th, 2007 will be the day the Chinese market drops 20%+ in one day. Why? Gut feeling.

So.. when do you think it will burst?

Are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting (or buying puts) on the Chinese stock market? I have a gut feeling you aren't.

Of course I'm not shorting it. Instead, I took all of my money out of it. It wouldn't be a wise decision to short a market that can go up 20% on the news that someone farts.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

Originally posted by: George P Burdell
:roll:

 

[StageLeft]

Well, with the yuan tied to US dollar and the US dollar quickly approaching less value than used toilet paper, that can't be helping China's ability to import needed things like oil.

 

[LuckyTaxi]

Stop it! I got some money in the Hong Kong ETF.

 

[Casawi]

 

[AnitaPeterson]

Won't happen before the Beijing Olympics, that you can bet on...

 

[brxndxn]

Originally posted by: AnitaPeterson
Won't happen before the Beijing Olympics, that you can bet on...

See.. That's what I thought at first. But, after reading a bunch of different articles over the the past few months, it seems to me that is the same attitute as the Chinese citizens - who are desperately leveraging themselves (despite a previous high savings rate) to buy into the expanding market. They are saying, "The government will keep the markets up at least until the Olympics." But, I think it will crash before the Olympics.

The Chinese government has a TON of money at hand to try to avert disaster - but, they let the market grow too big too fast.. When the government starts letting its citizens know that even the vast resources of the Chinese government are not enough to tame the markets, there will be panic on a widespread scale.

So.. I picked November 7th.. I'm probby way off - but trading around a single date, imo, is better than people acting like it will never burst. It will. It's inevitable.