November '06 House and Senate expectations

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
These are the Senate races

For the record... the senate..

For the record... the house

The norm for mid term elections is that if the approval rating of the President is near 50% his party might lose 3 or so House Seats and break even in the Senate... all other things being equal.
Bush is pretty far below that ATM so I think the Democrats win 18 seats in the House (net).
It is in the Senate that the dynamics are really interesting, to me at least...:)

I think the Donkey gets a net 3 even though the Donkey and Jeffords have 18 up and the Elephant 15.

There are other issues that peak my interest too.. mainly the age of the Senators not up for reelection.. but age or disease may keep the Senate seats they hold well on the radar for both parties... Spending huge sums even in states Like Penn where Spectre who has cancer may retire soon...

The only hope for the Elephant in the House is for some event to occur that demands the voters give the house to the elephant... what ever that could be...
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
We need 500 new members.

There are not another 500 electable people in this nation other than those the 'party' decides are fit for the job... and the bazillions needed to run...
Good decent folks can't win... it takes years to build up a rep with in the party structure... and with that goes the 'good and decent'...
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,132
6,612
126
Why we need balloting by descending preference and 'none of the above' plus endless recall elections so no matter who wins they will never serve. In the mean time I will not vote for any incumbent regardless of party. Time to sink the ship to rid it of rats.
 
Jun 27, 2005
19,216
1
61
I had to peek at the governors races...

Alaska (R-Murkowski) - When Frank Murkowski was elected governor in 2002, he appointed his daughter, Lisa, to replace him in the U.S. Senate. Because of it, Lisa faced tough challenges in the primary and general elections (and won). Murkowski, who ranks among the nation's least-popular governors, will likely face former Gov. Tony Knowles (D). The Alaska Primary is August 22. June 6

Hahahahahahahahahaha...

Of the three Rs running in the primary, Murkowski is THIRD. He will not face Knowles in the general election because he won't be there.

Depending on which poll you trust, either Sarah Palin or John Binkley is in the lead. Either one should beat Knowles.


 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
State races other than my own state, California, are so foreign to me that I almost never bother to read up on them. They usually have no impact on me or on any other state's citizens except as it may relate to judicial activity etc..

Arnold some how seems unbeatable in Cali... probably cuz he's married to Maria.. :D

But Poor ole Moonbeam.. ours not Brown... heheheh he can't seem to settle into accepting the reality of politics...
It has very little to do with anything but who can beat who for how much.. No one going against an incumbent with favorable ratings will ever get a cent... or many anyhow..

The exception of course are the baby princes and princesses.. like John Glenn and any Kennedy... or maybe a duke or earl like Jim Bunning...
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Why we need balloting by descending preference and 'none of the above' plus endless recall elections so no matter who wins they will never serve. In the mean time I will not vote for any incumbent regardless of party. Time to sink the ship to rid it of rats.


Oh Captain, My Captain.... you'd sink my ship and I can't swim... All we have are rats to speak for us.. they squeek and squeek the vowles of money...

Rats... Rats.... everywhere Rats.... do you think they will let you pull their plug... not hardly... it is Cats... many many Cats are what we need... to right the ship... lots of Cats.. Yellow Cats, Red Cats... lots of Cats...
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: ntdz
Democrats won't regain the house or senate...

Not the Senate.. that is almost impossible but the House.. that is another story... and quite doable.. easily doable if no major event occurs like the Head of OBL suddenly appears on the Tower bridge...
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: zendari
Wonder if these are the people who predicted Kerry in 04.

Very long odds for Kerry to unseat an incumbent President with high favorables versus not too bad unfavorables. In November the President's unfavorables will really hurt the Elephant..

I should add... Kerry won!
I should add... Gore won!

It was America that lost...
 
Jun 27, 2005
19,216
1
61
Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: zendari
Wonder if these are the people who predicted Kerry in 04.

Very long odds for Kerry to unseat an incumbent President with high favorables versus not too bad unfavorables. In November the President's unfavorables will really hurt the Elephant..

I should add... Kerry won!
I should add... Gore won!

It was America that lost...

Ok... I'm familliar with the sentiment toward Gore... But where did this "Kerry won!" stuff come from?
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: zendari
Wonder if these are the people who predicted Kerry in 04.

Very long odds for Kerry to unseat an incumbent President with high favorables versus not too bad unfavorables. In November the President's unfavorables will really hurt the Elephant..

I should add... Kerry won!
I should add... Gore won!

It was America that lost...

Ok... I'm familliar with the sentiment toward Gore... But where did this "Kerry won!" stuff come from?

Both Gore and Kerry lost their races against Bush. Gore's was via Supreme court decisions and Harris.... But Kerry.... He won... his running mate lost.. Unfortunately they vote for the pair...

edit: Kerry and just about anyone else may have pulled off the win... least ways imo..
 

straightalker

Senior member
Dec 21, 2005
515
0
0
Some friendly advice. Always keep your expectation in tune with reality. Have a contingency plan in place for dealing with the potential for the unexpected to happen.

The Democrats will take the House if there is a fall election. That's almost certain. The Senate perhaps as well. Which would be a complete and total disaster for the current Neo Fascists who siezed power in the USA in 2000 during that election coup. If the Dems take over both Houses and put their scum in power to occupy the entire Legislative Branch, it would mean the entire end of the current Neo Fascist imperialist agenda and their 100 year series of pre-planned wars for the planet. Think they'll just give up that easily? Gracefully? With honor?

What makes you all so sure there is going to even be a 2006 Congressional election in November. The way things are set up, all it takes is declaring a National State of Emergency to put the entire USA Government into the hands of the Emergency Management Agencies and the Military. One nuke in one city is all they need to overthrow the fall elections.

These November elections will be the most important time in USA history. We are all at a crossroads here in the USA. A continuation of the way things are going today will surely destroy our Nation. A Dem victory this fall represents a changing of the guard. One set of scum replacing another. The Legislative Branch of our Government at odds and fighting against the Executive, during the Bush Hunta's final two years occuptation of the USA, will be a good thing. Compared to the far worse chaos of a greased all Republican pig slide into oblivion.

Expect a lot of fireworks either way the next couple years. Hopefully all political. And nothing nuclear. Or tyranical. Such as an emergency government take over and martial law.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
I thought the head of OBL on Tower Bridge would be a big deal but what you've outlined, straightalker, is beyond the beyonds.... It is down right scary... actually consistent with some of the claims of the conspiracy folks regarding our '01 event in NYC and DC...

In any event, I can't see the Senate moving that many seats.. the races that are solid one side or another won't change come hell or high water.. there really are only six seats that can go either way.. Washington is really iffy and I give to the Elephant... 50/50 at best and Cheney would put the stamp on that... But... with out the house the Elephant can only wander about.. like Clinton..

IMO..
 

straightalker

Senior member
Dec 21, 2005
515
0
0
but what you've outlined, straightalker, is beyond the beyonds
All law and executive order. All on the public record. All they need is a single nuke disaster in one city and the USA as we know it is gone. Keep in your head though that this would definitely be infinitely unConstitutional and infinitely a coup. But with so many scum in power since JFK what did you expect?

About the predictions for the fall elections, ...there are some other huge variables to consider.

1] Electronic voting machines are completely bogus.

2] People are increasingly being sickened by the status quo of stinking Republican dominated entire 3 Branches of our Government and strongly desire a major chage.

3] A new threat of terror, probably false like so many of the others, but this time much larger, could scare people into voting one way or another.

4]Many signs indicate the Neo Fascists in power are going to try to expand their areas of global dominance by dragging the USA and our soldiers into another huge war. Syria and Iran most likely. Conveniently right before the fall elections of course. Which would cause a shift one way or another in the polls for all candidates, Some minor. Some major.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: straightalker
but what you've outlined, straightalker, is beyond the beyonds
All law and executive order. All on the public record. All they need is a single nuke disaster in one city and the USA as we know it is gone. Keep in your head though that this would definitely be infinitely unConstitutional and infinitely a coup. But with so many scum in power since JFK what did you expect?

About the predictions for the fall elections, ...there are some other huge variables to consider.

1] Electronic voting machines are completely bogus.

2] People are increasingly being sickened by the status quo of stinking Republican dominated entire 3 Branches of our Government and strongly desire a major chage.

3] A new threat of terror, probably false like so many of the others, but this time much larger, could scare people into voting one way or another.

4]Many signs indicate the Neo Fascists in power are going to try to expand their areas of global dominance by dragging the USA and our soldiers into another huge war. Syria and Iran most likely. Conveniently right before the fall elections of course. Which would cause a shift one way or another in the polls for all candidates, Some minor. Some major.

I don't disagree with what you say as a potential regarding 'Black Ops' and the employers of such operatives.. It is scary to me.. and I guess I know that some would use that means... Good Grief.. I hope it don't come to that.. not here..

Regarding your four points..

I've always been a fiscal conservative but some what social liberal depending on the issue. But like Senators Glenn and Metzenbaum's exchange about the 'if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck and looks like a duck... it must be a duck' (Darman's OMB hearings as well) Is sorta my first impression about everything.. usually

The machines are at best problematic...
Many are feeling disenfranchised by all sorts of illegal events.. Especially since the USCCR finding on the 2000 election anomalies.
Threat of terror is an ever present reality.. that it could occur and maybe will before the election is what scares me... another 'October Surprise' but on a grander scale..
All events that will occur by this Administration will be in contemplation of the affect it will have on those states and even districts that have seats that could sway one way or another... I've no doubt about that..
 
Jun 27, 2005
19,216
1
61
Originally posted by: straightalker
Some friendly advice. Always keep your expectation in tune with reality. Have a contingency plan in place for dealing with the potential for the unexpected to happen.

The Democrats will take the House if there is a fall election. That's almost certain. The Senate perhaps as well. Which would be a complete and total disaster for the current Neo Fascists who siezed power in the USA in 2000 during that election coup. If the Dems take over both Houses and put their scum in power to occupy the entire Legislative Branch, it would mean the entire end of the current Neo Fascist imperialist agenda and their 100 year series of pre-planned wars for the planet. Think they'll just give up that easily? Gracefully? With honor?

What makes you all so sure there is going to even be a 2006 Congressional election in November. The way things are set up, all it takes is declaring a National State of Emergency to put the entire USA Government into the hands of the Emergency Management Agencies and the Military. One nuke in one city is all they need to overthrow the fall elections.

These November elections will be the most important time in USA history. We are all at a crossroads here in the USA. A continuation of the way things are going today will surely destroy our Nation. A Dem victory this fall represents a changing of the guard. One set of scum replacing another. The Legislative Branch of our Government at odds and fighting against the Executive, during the Bush Hunta's final two years occuptation of the USA, will be a good thing. Compared to the far worse chaos of a greased all Republican pig slide into oblivion.

Expect a lot of fireworks either way the next couple years. Hopefully all political. And nothing nuclear. Or tyranical. Such as an emergency government take over and martial law.

Wow... put down the crack pipe and slowly back away from the keyboard.
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
I don't presume to know what the future entails, heck I thought Kerry would whallop Bush in 04' and I was dead wrong.

What I do know for certain is that this country wants out of Iraq. Things are getting so bad most people don't care who they put in office as long as it means we distance ourselves from this quagmire we are in right now.
 

wiin

Senior member
Oct 28, 1999
937
0
76
Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: zendari
Wonder if these are the people who predicted Kerry in 04.

Very long odds for Kerry to unseat an incumbent President with high favorables versus not too bad unfavorables. In November the President's unfavorables will really hurt the Elephant..

I should add... Kerry won!
I should add... Gore won!

It was America that lost...

Ok... I'm familliar with the sentiment toward Gore... But where did this "Kerry won!" stuff come from?

Both Gore and Kerry lost their races against Bush. Gore's was via Supreme court decisions and Harris.... But Kerry.... He won... his running mate lost.. Unfortunately they vote for the pair...

edit: Kerry and just about anyone else may have pulled off the win... least ways imo..

Bush won the election in 2000 even after several recount. All the Supreme Court did was put a stop to the democrats shenanigan.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,808
83
91
straightalker, are you one of those people who was convinced that the US would "capture" Osama in October of '04 to ensure a Bush victory?

that entire summer, I remember reading posts from conspiracy theorists who were convinced that Bush had captured Osama a long time ago and was just saving him in captivity somewhere to announce when he needed a bump in the polls.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: wiin
Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: zendari
Wonder if these are the people who predicted Kerry in 04.

Very long odds for Kerry to unseat an incumbent President with high favorables versus not too bad unfavorables. In November the President's unfavorables will really hurt the Elephant..

I should add... Kerry won!
I should add... Gore won!

It was America that lost...

Ok... I'm familliar with the sentiment toward Gore... But where did this "Kerry won!" stuff come from?

Both Gore and Kerry lost their races against Bush. Gore's was via Supreme court decisions and Harris.... But Kerry.... He won... his running mate lost.. Unfortunately they vote for the pair...

edit: Kerry and just about anyone else may have pulled off the win... least ways imo..

Bush won the election in 2000 even after several recount. All the Supreme Court did was put a stop to the democrats shenanigan.

They put a stop to the count you mean... the count that you assert would have gone to Bush and that I assert would have gone to Gore..
There were other issues at stake aside from continuing the count and they were the manner of the count itself and the ballots that disenfranchised voters by the thousands..
If you've not read the US Commission on Civil Rights report on the 2000 election anomalies I'd suggest you do.. and if that don't convince you of the magnitude of issues well then I guess we just have to move on to 2006 as is the case anyhow..

Mary Francis Berry was the Chair but she is a pretty straight shooter in my opinion
Pursuant to its authority, and fulfilling its obligations, members of the Commission staff conducted a preliminary investigation and discovered widespread allegations of voter disenfranchisement in Florida in the 2000 presidential election. The Commissioners voted unanimously to conduct an extensive public investigation into these allegations of voting irregularities. Toward that end, the Commission held three days of hearings in Miami and Tallahassee and, using its subpoena powers, collected more than 30 hours of testimony from more than 100 witnesses?all taken under oath?and reviewed more than 118,000 pages of pertinent documents."
" The disenfranchisement of Florida?s voters fell most harshly on the shoulders of black voters. The magnitude of the impact can be seen from any of several perspectives:

Statewide, based upon county-level statistical estimates, black voters were nearly 10 times more likely than nonblack voters to have their ballots rejected.

Estimates indicate that approximately 14.4 percent of Florida?s black voters cast ballots that were rejected. This compares with approximately 1.6 percent of nonblack Florida voters who did not have their presidential votes counted.

Statistical analysis shows that the disparity in ballot spoilage rates?i.e., ballots cast but not counted?between black and nonblack voters is not the result of education or literacy differences. This conclusion is supported by Governor Jeb Bush?s Select Task Force on Election Procedures, Standards and Technology, which found that error rates stemming from uneducated, uninformed, or disinterested voters account for less than 1 percent of the problems.

Approximately 11 percent of Florida voters were African American; however, African Americans cast about 54 percent of the 180,000 spoiled ballots in Florida during the November 2000 election based on estimates derived from county-level data. These statewide estimates were corroborated by the results in several counties based on actual precinct data.

Poor counties, particularly those with large minority populations, were more likely to possess voting systems with higher spoilage rates than the more affluent counties with significant white populations. There is a high correlation between counties and precincts with a high percentage of African American voters and the percentage of spoiled ballots. For example:

Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of African American voters had spoilage rates above the Florida average.

Of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of white voters, only two counties had spoilage rates above the state average.

Gadsden County, with the highest rate of spoiled ballots, also had the highest percentage of African American voters.

Where precinct data were available, the data show that 83 of the 100 precincts with the highest numbers of spoiled ballots are black-majority precincts. "

One might also like to know that generally minority and other non white voters vote liberal.... or for Gore in 2000.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: loki8481
straightalker, are you one of those people who was convinced that the US would "capture" Osama in October of '04 to ensure a Bush victory?

that entire summer, I remember reading posts from conspiracy theorists who were convinced that Bush had captured Osama a long time ago and was just saving him in captivity somewhere to announce when he needed a bump in the polls.


And if OBL shows up in October of '06 and cries out that he'd been held for two years in a dark dank prison.. what then... Bush says.. nope just found him in Starbucks in down town Istanbul...

It is all about what we each WANT to believe, ain't it.. :D