Northern pakistan : welcome to Al_Qaida-TalibanLand

[Vonkhan]

Text

The pak govt. never really had much sway in the NWFP (north west frontier province). The situation has pretty much reached a tipping point now with the pak air force bombing villages since the regular army is getting its ass whooped, not to mention soldiers deserting.

In the meanwhile, Bhutto quietly ran off to Dubai less than 2 weeks after she got to pak - cold feet?

Question is - how long can Mush hold on?

 

[Fern]

Hard to say.

I read this morning that the Pak army killed about 60 militants in fighting yesterday.

Mush has an upcoming court challenge to recent electoral victory as Pres.

Yeah, Bhutto's off see her family (husband & kids) at a ritzy villa on a golf course. Can't blame her for having the rest of her family outside of Pak, though. To darn dangerous.

Fern

 

[The Green Bean]

They haven't sent their regular army yet. They've been sending poorly trained paramilitary frontier corps and still managing a kill ratio of about 8:1. I say it's about time we send our regular army and bombers before it really gets out of control. I wouldn't be too happy if I were you Vonkhan. An unstable Pakistan means that India is at much greater risk. And the biggest risk is that someone like Zia Ul Haq will come into power and make an alliance with Iran on the basis of an Islamic union (Imagine what our nuclear and missile tech + Iranian oil money can do). It also means that there is a greater chance of nuclear war and both countries being turned into glass. On the other hand the "friendly tribals" gave an ultimatum to the foreign fighters to leave or else.

I'm in favour of a declaration of an emergency and a quick end to the rebellion before it hurts us even more. And I'm in strong favour of this action. It needs to be much stronger. It's a rebellion and rebellions need to be crushed in the strongest possible ways. I'm afraid the real WOT is being fought in Pakistan. And it's more a political war than a military war. If a Zia ul Haq does come into power then the the whole war can turn on it's head. If Mushy goes, the doomsday clock will be moved one minute closer. India and Israel will be in real danger.

I demand that you change the subject to a more suitable one. I'll make sure it gets locked if you don't because it makes for a flaimbait and does not reflect the situation in the north.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Fern
Yeah, Bhutto's off see her family (husband & kids) at a ritzy villa on a golf course. Can't blame her for having the rest of her family outside of Pak, though. To darn dangerous.

That b!tch caused the deaths of 150+ and now runs away just when she suspected an emergency could be declared. That would mean she is going to jail.

 

[maddogchen]

Pakistan

Today no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan. It has everything Osama bin Laden could ask for: political instability, a trusted network of radical Islamists, an abundance of angry young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas, access to state-of-the-art electronic technology, regular air service to the West and security services that don't always do what they're supposed to do. (Unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan, there also aren't thousands of American troops hunting down would-be terrorists.) Then there's the country's large and growing nuclear program. "If you were to look around the world for where Al Qaeda is going to find its bomb, it's right in their backyard," says Bruce Riedel, the former senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council.

 

[Aimster]

Is this thread an attack on the Pakistan military?

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Pakistan

Today no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan. It has everything Osama bin Laden could ask for: political instability, a trusted network of radical Islamists, an abundance of angry young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas, access to state-of-the-art electronic technology, regular air service to the West and security services that don't always do what they're supposed to do. (Unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan, there also aren't thousands of American troops hunting down would-be terrorists.) Then there's the country's large and growing nuclear program. "If you were to look around the world for where Al Qaeda is going to find its bomb, it's right in their backyard," says Bruce Riedel, the former senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council.

I stopped reading newsweek after they published that article. It's biased and full of anti-Pakistan propaganda with twisted facts.

 

[The Green Bean]

edit: probably shouldn't have said that.

 

[maddogchen]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Pakistan

Today no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan. It has everything Osama bin Laden could ask for: political instability, a trusted network of radical Islamists, an abundance of angry young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas, access to state-of-the-art electronic technology, regular air service to the West and security services that don't always do what they're supposed to do. (Unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan, there also aren't thousands of American troops hunting down would-be terrorists.) Then there's the country's large and growing nuclear program. "If you were to look around the world for where Al Qaeda is going to find its bomb, it's right in their backyard," says Bruce Riedel, the former senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council.

I stopped reading newsweek after they published that article. It's biased and full of anti-Pakistan propaganda with twisted facts.

I thought it was interesting, how Taliban fighters injured in fighting with coalition forces retreat to Pakistan for medical care and recoup. And it has a lot of interesting quotes from interviews with Taliban commanders that made their way to pakistan.

Just ignore that cover picture.

 

[Vonkhan]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean


I demand that you change the subject to a more suitable one. I'll make sure it gets locked if you don't because it makes for a flaimbait and does not reflect the situation in the north.

You can "demand" all you want, just like you "categorically reject" the Taliban and AQ

Look, it's a global media flamebait conspiracy ...

BBC : The authorities say there are fears that the Swat valley is becoming a haven for al-Qaeda and the Taleban

CNN: "expansion of Islamist movements in northwestern Pakistan"

Time : al-Qaeda affiliated terrorists and the Pakistani Taliban currently gaining strength in the lawless tribal areas spanning the border with Afghanistan

AP : pro-Taliban militants are gaining sway across a swath of the country's northwest

Newsweek : Pakistan's demoralized military seems incapable of stopping the jihadists even in the cities

ADN Kronos : militants later freed the soldiers on Friday and gave each of them $8 (LOL!)

And despite your claims to the contrary, there are "regular Pakistani army troops" which have been there since July who seem to prefer surrender than actually fight "tribals" or simply run away (more than 100 troops abandoned their positions on Thursday night)

Wake up and smell your own bs

The truth is that pak is going down the crapper really fast and unless Mush imposes an emergency, chances are that he'll eventually get lynched Mussolini-style and

 

[The Green Bean]

While I agree these are tough times for Pakistan, today India had it's worse day for a while.

18 Indian police feared dead in ambush RAIPUR, India, Nov 2 (AFP) - At least 18 policemen were feared killed in an Maoist rebel ambush on Friday in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, officials said. The attack occurred in the state's rebel-infested Bijapur district which adjoins Andhra Pradesh state, a senior police officer said in capital Raipur. (Posted @ 19:46 PST)

Tribal rebels kill 7 policemen in India's Assam GUWAHATI, India, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Tribal rebels killed seven policemen in an ambush in India's tea- and oil-rich northeastern state of Assam on Friday, a senior military officer said. Heavily armed guerrillas of a little-known group (DHD), ambushed a vehicle carrying CRPF men on patrol in the mountainous, rebel-infested area of North Cachar Hills district. ?All seven of them died on the spot and militants took away their weapons from the site,? the officer, who did not want to be named, said. The DHD is fighting for political autonomy for the Dimasa tribes people in the hilly region. (Posted @ 17:05 PST)

militancy is not just a Pakistan problem but a global problem especially in countries with poor education. But the world does not notice except what they want to. And the world has become too lenient with rebellions. If we start dealing with them like they need to be dealt with we would have a better lasting peace; be it with fewer liberties.

 

[Vonkhan]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Is this thread an attack on the Pakistan military?

No, this thread is about Mush's options

1) Negotiate another deal with AQ/Taliban proxies
Result: Give them a safe haven for A'tan, US royally p!ssed

2) Declare martial law (not a first in pak ) and an all out assault using the pak army & air force
Result: US happy but will be seen as a US lapdog and anti-Muslim, make the general population even more unhappier with him

3) Maintain status quo - keep fighting a low intensity conflict
Result: 'grats Mush, you have your own little mini-war with which you can hang onto power and siphon off more US funds while getting people only half-mad with you

4) Run - let Bhutto or Shariff or whoever else handle the sh!tstorm
Result: ???

 

[Vonkhan]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean
While I agree these are tough times for Pakistan, today India had it's worse day for a while.

18 Indian police feared dead in ambush RAIPUR, India, Nov 2 (AFP) - At least 18 policemen were feared killed in an Maoist rebel ambush on Friday in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, officials said. The attack occurred in the state's rebel-infested Bijapur district which adjoins Andhra Pradesh state, a senior police officer said in capital Raipur. (Posted @ 19:46 PST)

Tribal rebels kill 7 policemen in India's Assam GUWAHATI, India, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Tribal rebels killed seven policemen in an ambush in India's tea- and oil-rich northeastern state of Assam on Friday, a senior military officer said. Heavily armed guerrillas of a little-known group (DHD), ambushed a vehicle carrying CRPF men on patrol in the mountainous, rebel-infested area of North Cachar Hills district. ?All seven of them died on the spot and militants took away their weapons from the site,? the officer, who did not want to be named, said. The DHD is fighting for political autonomy for the Dimasa tribes people in the hilly region. (Posted @ 17:05 PST)

militancy is not just a Pakistan problem but a global problem especially in countries with poor education.

Typical pakistani response - someone points out your problems and you immediately compare yourself to India. Quite a complex you got going there ...

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Vonkhan

Originally posted by: The Green Bean
While I agree these are tough times for Pakistan, today India had it's worse day for a while.

18 Indian police feared dead in ambush RAIPUR, India, Nov 2 (AFP) - At least 18 policemen were feared killed in an Maoist rebel ambush on Friday in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, officials said. The attack occurred in the state's rebel-infested Bijapur district which adjoins Andhra Pradesh state, a senior police officer said in capital Raipur. (Posted @ 19:46 PST)

Tribal rebels kill 7 policemen in India's Assam GUWAHATI, India, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Tribal rebels killed seven policemen in an ambush in India's tea- and oil-rich northeastern state of Assam on Friday, a senior military officer said. Heavily armed guerrillas of a little-known group (DHD), ambushed a vehicle carrying CRPF men on patrol in the mountainous, rebel-infested area of North Cachar Hills district. ?All seven of them died on the spot and militants took away their weapons from the site,? the officer, who did not want to be named, said. The DHD is fighting for political autonomy for the Dimasa tribes people in the hilly region. (Posted @ 17:05 PST)

militancy is not just a Pakistan problem but a global problem especially in countries with poor education.

Typical pakistani response - someone points out your problems and you immediately compare yourself to India. Quite a complex you got going there ...

You fall into the group of idiots who tend to generalize everything. I'm just showing you that while you "laugh off" Pakistan's problems you have the same problems back at home. And you say I have a complex? Funny that it has always been you that has made anti Pakistan comments in threads not even related to Pakistan by hoping that America would bomb the crap out of us. You can read all my posts and I've always answered by giving examples from the country of the poster's origin.

May I ask you the level of your education? The more I read your posts the more I think of you as a 15 year old kid with family problems that has dropped out of primary school.

 

[StageLeft]

If we start dealing with them like they need to be dealt with we would have a better lasting peace; be it with fewer liberties.

Well that's the crux, isn't it?! Kimberly Jong is quite good at dealing with rebellion but I'd almost rather live in Somalia (almost, but not quite).

Anyway, militancy is a problem in a lot of countries, but not the good ones that I'm lucky enough to have lived in. There are no rebellions in the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand. OK, so I've not lived in all those, but you get the point.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

If we start dealing with them like they need to be dealt with we would have a better lasting peace; be it with fewer liberties.

Well that's the crux, isn't it?! Kimberly Jong is quite good at dealing with rebellion but I'd almost rather live in Somalia (almost, but not quite).

Anyway, militancy is a problem in a lot of countries, but not the good ones that I'm lucky enough to have lived in. There are no rebellions in the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand. OK, so I've not lived in all those, but you get the point.

Look what happened when the US went into Iraq. Iraq was better off under the iron fist of Saddam than the shining teeth of Bush.

And you can call the Irish mess in the UK a rebellion of a different intensity. Even in Pakistan, both sides are reluctant to kill each other so it's not a bloody war by any means. While on the other extreme you have the Chinese civil war. and I forgot Spain. It is too fighting a rebellion with the ETA I think it's called?

 

[maddogchen]

Originally posted by: Vonkhan

And despite your claims to the contrary, there are "regular Pakistani army troops" which have been there since July who seem to prefer surrender than actually fight "tribals" or simply run away (more than 100 troops abandoned their positions on Thursday night)

just to point out that those troops that surrendered and ran away in your links are paramilitary troops that are part of the Frontier Corps and not the regular army. They are like local militias under the employ of the government.

 

[Ozoned]

Originally posted by: Vonkhan
Text

The pak govt. never really had much sway in the NWFP (north west frontier province). The situation has pretty much reached a tipping point now with the pak air force bombing villages since the regular army is getting its ass whooped, not to mention soldiers deserting.

In the meanwhile, Bhutto quietly ran off to Dubai less than 2 weeks after she got to pak - cold feet?

Question is - how long can Mush hold on?

More importantly, do rational people know the location of all of their nukes, so that they can be disposed of permanently.

 

[Vonkhan]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

You fall into the group of idiots who tend to generalize everything. I'm just showing you that while you "laugh off" Pakistan's problems you have the same problems back at home. And you say I have a complex? Funny that it has always been you that has made anti Pakistan comments in threads not even related to Pakistan by hoping that America would bomb the crap out of us. You can read all my posts and I've always answered by giving examples from the country of the poster's origin.

May I ask you the level of your education? The more I read your posts the more I think of you as a 15 year old kid with family problems that has dropped out of primary school.

I'm not laughing It's pretty serious when country with nukes (even half-assed ones) is gravitating towards the control of AQ and Taliban whackos. The way I see it, if Bush really wanted to go after AQ, WMDs, 9/11 - he should've bombed pak back into the stone age (not that pak is really far from it anyhow). Fortunately for you, pak has very little oil.

But see, here's the main problem - pakistanis are sympathetic to AQ and Taliban since they believe in the concept of Islamic brotherhood across all borders. Here we go, from the BBC:

"I surrendered because I realised that I was only fighting fellow Muslims," said Shafiullah, a soldier from Dargai area."

pak is one giant safe haven for AQ and Taliban, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

You talk about Iran? India has had WAY better relationships with Iran than you can ever hope to have. Iran, India and Russia were helping the Northern Alliance against the Taliban for years, look up your facts. Here's some help ....... Do you have any idea of what happened beyond the last few years? Hell, India had "military advisors" assigned to the NA

While pak was busy kissing upto the US, India supported Iran on the nuclear issue and never voted against it.

My level of education? None of your business, really - but if you have to know: bachelor's in CIS, bachelor's in business administration, working on my MBA. I support my statements and views with facts and references, including ones that demonstrate your utter lack of any geo-political knowledge. All you can do is "demand" and categorically reject" anything that doesn't fit into your self-delusional view of pakistan. Keep it up and you can replace Baghdad Bob someday :thumbsup:

 

[Vonkhan]

Originally posted by: maddogchen

Originally posted by: Vonkhan

And despite your claims to the contrary, there are "regular Pakistani army troops" which have been there since July who seem to prefer surrender than actually fight "tribals" or simply run away (more than 100 troops abandoned their positions on Thursday night)

just to point out that those troops that surrendered and ran away in your links are paramilitary troops that are part of the Frontier Corps and not the regular army. They are like local militias under the employ of the government.

The Frontier Corps is a federal paramilitary force stationed in NWFP. It operates under the Federal Interior Ministry and is headed by an Inspector General who is a Major General deputed from the pakistan army. All senior command positions in the Frontier Corps are filled by regular pak army officers who serve for a period of two to three years.

The Frontier Corps is a paramilitary force, but they are FAR from being local militia.

By the same comparison, if a US National Guardsman gets killed in Iraq, do you say "A US militiaman was killed in blah blah province"? No.

 

[Lemon law]

As everyone roundly criticizes Pakistan, Afghanistan is in an equal mess as Al-Quida and the taliban make advances not only in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also the Stans to the north. Much of Musharrif's problems result from the loss of vital Afghani trade routes that the a taliban stabilized Afghanistan established. And the US deal has put Mushy in deep doo do because the US led Afghani occupation has not delivered equivalent stability especially since the US is militarily tied up in Iraq. So Mushy has little to show for being a US poodle in a Country somewhat sympathetic to taliban style Islamic aims. Right no Mushariff can keep his radical right marginalized but they are still a force that should not be minimized or underestimated. And with the Pakistani courts due to weigh in on the legitimacy of Musharrif's election, its a who knows what could happen if they give a thumbs down to Musharrif.

Vonkhan may be somewhat right on the list of Musharrif options, but the more reliable takes may be from The Green Bean. But long term, the Pakistani future will be secured
and terrorism marginalized by four main events beyond the control of Pakistan alone. (1) The US and Nato occupation must stabilize Afghanistan and open up trade routes. (2) Some sort of US or UN Led effort must defuse India Pakistan tensions over the disputed Kashmir area. (3) Economic development rather than military aid should be the funding priorities for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. (4) We must be more open to Iranian interests because Afghani stability is in the interests of Iran.

With a rising tide lifting all boats, whats good for the region will reduce the appeal of terrorism.

 

[The Green Bean]

But see, here's the main problem - pakistanis are sympathetic to AQ and Taliban since they believe in the concept of Islamic brotherhood across all borders. Here we go, from the BBC:

"I surrendered because I realised that I was only fighting fellow Muslims," said Shafiullah, a soldier from Dargai area."

Because he was a muslim; not Pakistani. There is a difference. Odd. Since you yourself claim to be a muslim.

pak is one giant safe haven for AQ and Taliban, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

You mean the 1000+ killed and 3000+ captured were safe?

You talk about Iran? India has had WAY better relationships with Iran than you can ever hope to have. Iran, India and Russia were helping the Northern Alliance against the Taliban for years, look up your facts. Here's some help .... Hell, India had "military advisors" assigned to the NA

While pak was busy kissing upto the US, India supported Iran on the nuclear issue and never voted against it.

You will be surprised to learn how fast religion can unite.

My level of education? None of your business, really - but if you have to know: bachelor's in CIS, bachelor's in business administration, working on my MBA.

I was surprised to learn that you were muslim and I'm surprised to learn that you have a degree. You show traits of neither.

 

[The Green Bean]

I'd also like to mention that I don't support General Musharraf's basis for the war. He says that Pakistan needs to move towards "enlightenment" and "modern Islam." And that probably reflects the feelings of the general public. If we ever needed a change it was towards Islamic values away from British law. What most Pakistanis fail t o realize however that the taliban do not represent the true essence of Islam. I'm sure if Musharraf raised the flag of Islam and fought under its banner he would see more support. People seldom look at the core issues but support what is said on the cover. We should not sell our honor, values and religion for a few american dollars. He should make it clear that our cause is Islam not America. If the west doesn't like it too bad. It won't do anything as long as both parties have similar objectives.

 

[Vonkhan]

But see, here's the main problem - pakistanis are sympathetic to AQ and Taliban since they believe in the concept of Islamic brotherhood across all borders. Here we go, from the BBC:

"I surrendered because I realised that I was only fighting fellow Muslims," said Shafiullah, a soldier from Dargai area."

Because he was a muslim; not Pakistani. There is a difference. Odd. Since you yourself claim to be a muslim.

Huh? Wait ... are you saying that Mr. Shafiullah is not a pakistani? Or are you saying that country means nothing and religion is all that matters?

So he surrendered to fellow Muslims because he is a Muslim himself.

Nice.

All that AQ has to do now is walk up pak AFB Sargodha and announce that they're Muslims and viola! the F-16s with the strap-on nukes are theirs since all the pak troops there are Muslim and will surrender to AQ.

I have a better idea ... The All-Muslim Companies of the Indian Army Rajputana Rifles could walk into pak and the pak soldiers should surrender to them.

Right?

pak is one giant safe haven for AQ and Taliban, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

You mean the 1000+ killed and 3000+ captured were safe?

All I see is in the news reports is: xx pak troops dead, xx surrendered, xx beheaded, xx deserted. Every news source says the same thing - your police / paramilitray / military is getting its ass whooped.

You talk about Iran? India has had WAY better relationships with Iran than you can ever hope to have. Iran, India and Russia were helping the Northern Alliance against the Taliban for years, look up your facts. Here's some help .... Hell, India had "military advisors" assigned to the NA

While pak was busy kissing upto the US, India supported Iran on the nuclear issue and never voted against it.

You will be surprised to learn how fast religion can unite.

Ummm ye ... riiiite ... just like religion kept pak united with Bangladesh? wow, THAT worked out REAL well, didn't it? In contemporary times, show me 2 countries that were arch-rivals but got united over religion ... go ahead, prove me wrong

My level of education? None of your business, really - but if you have to know: bachelor's in CIS, bachelor's in business administration, working on my MBA.

I was surprised to learn that you were muslim and I'm surprised to learn that you have a degree. You show traits of neither.

[/quote]
cry me a river. So far, all I've seen from you is rhetoric - support your statements with references.


Now, back to the topic ...

What are Mush's options? I'm betting that he'll continue to let bleed his army dry in the NWFP and maintain status quo.

1. He gives the impression that he's making an effort to fight AQ/Taliban
2. Gets US funds to fight them
3. Doesn't p!ss off the population with martial law
4. Create a fear psychosis that keeps him in power. It already scared Bhutto away ...

 

[Lemon law]

To Volkhan,

You seem engaged in short run thinking. Musharrif is in his 60's already, has survived many assassination attempts, and could be toppled as Pakistani leader at any time. The new leader would still likely come from the same factions that produced Musharrif, but the Pakistani problems would remain the same.

When are we going to realize that the appeal of terrorism is going to be reduced by regional economic development and not by direct confrontations by an already over extended US military? So far, US policy seems to be working for the terrorists and against regional economic development.

The other point to make is that Pakistan has arrested more taliban than the rest of the world combined. Pakistan is doing more than the US is, while the US only drives more people into taliban and Al-Quida training camps scattered across many nations.

When you see the following-------"I surrendered because I realised that I was only fighting fellow Muslims," said Shafiullah, a soldier from Dargai area."

As someone with business training, you have to realize brand USA just is not selling. And if you want it to sell, you have to radically change the product or you are going to go out of business.