North Carolina to scientists: No you can't use exponential models

[BigBarney]

http://www.care2.com/causes/nc-igno...ake-sea-level-rise-illegal.html#ixzz1wj2yMKes

It’s the legislative equivalent of plugging your ears, closing your eyes, and screaming “I can’t hear you!”

North Carolina’s General Assembly has proposed a bill that would prevent scientists from using modern, scientific models to accurately predict what might happen to sea levels if climate change continues unabated.

Let that sink in for a minute.

Rather than use science to accurately predict what might happen to its valuable coast areas, and thereby educate its citizens about what can be done to prepare for this change, North Carolina’s political leaders would rather just make the truth illegal.

Typically, scientists use an exponential model to predict how much sea levels will rise if global temperatures continue to do the same. They have to use a non-linear model because each time the climate warms even a fraction of a degree, it has a major impact on the ocean’s current volume as well as ice cap melt rates.

Taking these variables into account, most climate experts say that sea levels will rise at least three feet by the end of the century. But this doesn’t sit well with a group of legislators from 20 coastal NC counties whose economies will be most impacted by the swelling seas. So, they’ve introduced Replacement House Bill 819, which makes it illegal for state scientists to use exponential models to predict changes in sea level.

The key language is in section 2, paragraph e, talking about rates of sea level rise: “These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of seas-level rise may be extrapolated linearly. …”

“It goes on,” writes Scott Huler for Scientific American, “but there’s the core: North Carolina legislators have decided that the way to make exponential increases in sea level rise – caused by those inconvenient feedback loops we keep hearing about from scientists – go away is to make it against the law to extrapolate exponential; we can only extrapolate along a line predicted by previous sea level rises.”

Under the new, linear-only rule, the state-appointed board of scientists of the NC Coastal Resources Commission would only be able to predict an 8-inch sea level rise by the end of the century. And that leaves the legislators from those 20 coastal counties feeling just tickled pink.

Now this level of denial might seem shocking, but it’s par for the course in North Carolina. Throughout it’s history, the state has attempted to legislate away lots of pesky things that it just didn’t like, including abortion, gay marriage and racial integration. Unfortunately, this war on reality does nothing more than jeopardize the physical and economic safety of North Carolina’s citizens, who would probably like to know the truth about what’s in store for their state.

Personally, I’m almost looking forward to the day when, knee deep in water on the front porches of their Outer Banks mansions, these legislators will be forced to inform the ocean that it’s breaking the law.

NC really has some freaking retarded political people.

 

[waggy]

/facepalm

 

[JEDIYoda]

/facepalm

 

[gevorg]

this is what you get when your legislators are all lawyers and ex-military members

we need more STEM decision makers in politics!

 

[Greenman]

The article is an opinion, and a pretty slanted one at that.
Is there compelling evidence that exponential models are better than linear? I haven't heard of any global weather model that's been proven accurate.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Think how much energy the state could save if they repeal the Law of Entropy!

 

[Jaskalas]

This seems out of place and not within their realm, but maybe there is something specific about the law and legislation we're not familiar with. Regardless, it's certainly bad PR for them.

 

[Paul98]

The article is an opinion, and a pretty slanted one at that.
Is there compelling evidence that exponential models are better than linear? I haven't heard of any global weather model that's been proven accurate.

You can NOT defend this, this is beyond stupid. What may or may not be the best way doesn't matter, they are just saying oh I like the results we get here so you can't use a different way. We don't care if it's realistic or not, reality doesn't matter to us we just care that the results are what we want to see.

If these are the people we have trying to run this country, it will be destroyed in the 20 or 50 years.

 

[Lemon law]

And how can North Carolina enforce this law? When Scientists all over the world and in various US states ignore the law which only applies in only one US State.

And if some hapless NC citizen goes to the world wide web and finds other reputable scientists saying NC is Full of shit, surely the only NC enforceable response would be to burn such a heretic at the stake. Or dare we hope a more merciful State will merely send them off to reeducation camps located on low ground. And when the rising tide drowns the lot, that will surely solve the problem.

 

[blackangst1]

And how can North Carolina enforce this law? When Scientists all over the world and in various US states ignore the law which only applies in only one US State.

And if some hapless NC citizen goes to the world wide web and finds other reputable scientists saying NC is Full of shit, surely the only NC enforceable response would be to burn such a heretic at the stake. Or dare we hope a more merciful State will merely send them off to reeducation camps located on low ground. And when the rising tide drowns the lot, that will surely solve the problem.

Yeah. This. WTF were they thinking?

 

[HamburgerBoy]

And how can North Carolina enforce this law? When Scientists all over the world and in various US states ignore the law which only applies in only one US State.

And if some hapless NC citizen goes to the world wide web and finds other reputable scientists saying NC is Full of shit, surely the only NC enforceable response would be to burn such a heretic at the stake. Or dare we hope a more merciful State will merely send them off to reeducation camps located on low ground. And when the rising tide drowns the lot, that will surely solve the problem.

How would it be hard to enforce? If you use exponential models and you are a state scientist for North Carolina as described in the bill, you lose your job.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

And here's what our Senate is up to: http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/11158293/
Serious business.

 

[sandorski]

The article is an opinion, and a pretty slanted one at that.
Is there compelling evidence that exponential models are better than linear? I haven't heard of any global weather model that's been proven accurate.

Politicians should not dictate Science.

 

[LunarRay]

Our Universe is expanding at an ever increasing rate. Our science folks indicate it should be actually contracting based on their estimate of the visible mass. So the universe don't much care what science says so it expands... Well... to come to terms with this phenomenon science has come up with invisible stuff... Dark Matter/Energy. Then they say it must be there to allow the continued expansion.

They also predict in 4 billion years Andromeda and our galaxy will meet and destroy each other...

Science says these things cuz they can measure it pretty good...

Global warming effect also can be measured. We can estimate the amount of ice and the effect of its melting.

So to make all the folks in NC happy we should say there is no global warming, but, rather, some of that invisible stuff is on the planet and it is hot stuff which melts the ice and we can't do diddly about it cept not help it along.

Seems consistant to me... :whiste:

 

[RightIsWrong]

The article is an opinion, and a pretty slanted one at that.
Is there compelling evidence that exponential models are better than linear? I haven't heard of any global weather model that's been proven accurate.

Seriously? That's your response?

No weather model will be 100% accurate because we don't control the weather and we don't know every single variable that is impacting it at any given moment.

With that said, here's the actual proposed bill and it reads like a spoiled brat saying "You have to do it my way or not at all!"

www.nccoast.org/uploads/documents/CRO/2012-5/SLR-bill.pdf

In this case, you can't simply use linear calculations because the previous effects still need to be accounted for.

 

[SirStev0]

ugh.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Should have just let the south secede.

 

[Darwin333]

The article is an opinion, and a pretty slanted one at that.
Is there compelling evidence that exponential models are better than linear? I haven't heard of any global weather model that's been proven accurate.

Who gives a fuck? Do you honestly believe that the legislators can better tell scientists how to do their scientific studies, including what models they can use and how, better than oh I dunno the fucking scientists????? Seriously? Foe real dawg?

 

[Texashiker]

Rick Perry and Texas did the same thing when studies showed the sea level was rising in Galveston bay.

 

[Merad]

And how can North Carolina enforce this law? When Scientists all over the world and in various US states ignore the law which only applies in only one US State.

I don't think they are technically banning this type of prediction, they're banning it from being used in planning for NC's coast.

This is all about communities on the coast of NC which don't want to admit that they are likely not to exist 100 years from now if sea rise predictions are remotely correct. And if we admit that these places are going to be wiped out in the near future, it's that much harder for them to get money from the state to keep doing things like repairing their roads every year when a hurricane wipes them out. So, they have advocacy groups doing all they can to attack sea level rise predictions.

More info here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/24/3265614/coastal-nc-counties-fighting-sea.html

 

[RightIsWrong]

I don't think they are technically banning this type of prediction, they're banning it from being used in planning for NC's coast.

This is all about communities on the coast of NC which don't want to admit that they are likely not to exist 100 years from now if sea rise predictions are remotely correct. And if we admit that these places are going to be wiped out in the near future, it's that much harder for them to get money from the state to keep doing things like repairing their roads every year when a hurricane wipes them out. So, they have advocacy groups doing all they can to attack sea level rise predictions.

More info here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/24/3265614/coastal-nc-counties-fighting-sea.html

If this is truly their intent, then when the shit does indeed hit the fan, then they (the idiots who passed legislation like this that bans fairly accurate ways of predicting the likely outcome should be able to be held financially accountable to those that are injured by their shortsightedness.

 

[glenn1]

Who gives a fuck? Do you honestly believe that the legislators can better tell scientists how to do their scientific studies, including what models they can use and how, better than oh I dunno the fucking scientists????? Seriously? Foe real dawg?

The scientists in question are state employees. The legislators can tell them to do whatever the fvck they want since they're the ones signing the paychecks (or authorizing them to be signed if you want to be a stickler).

 

[manimal]

The scientists in question are state employees. The legislators can tell them to do whatever the fvck they want since they're the ones signing the paychecks (or authorizing them to be signed if you want to be a stickler).

And those people work for us the taxpayer.

So your basically saying is that it's ok for the government t to lie to you since they sign those checks that we pay?

 

[Greenman]

Who gives a fuck? Do you honestly believe that the legislators can better tell scientists how to do their scientific studies, including what models they can use and how, better than oh I dunno the fucking scientists????? Seriously? Foe real dawg?

I have no idea which is the better method, or if either one is close enough to even bother with, that's why I asked.

My guess is that the law doesn't tell scientists what model to use, just which one will be allowed when it's on the the states nickel, or when it involves a study the result of which will cost the state money. The one thing you can depend on is that money is at the heart of the issue.

 

[Mr. Pedantic]

The article is an opinion, and a pretty slanted one at that.
Is there compelling evidence that exponential models are better than linear? I haven't heard of any global weather model that's been proven accurate.

The issue isn't whether one model is more accurate than another, that is really quite irrelevant. The important issue is that people are trying to legislate truth. Just as stupid as the Indiana Pi bill.