I'm increasingly unsure what I think about COVID now. I was always instinctively a 'lockdown hawk', and completely against the "herd immunity via infection" idea, that libertarian types kept promoting. But it does seem that omicron has changed the situation. I don't even know what I think about the idea of ongoing vaccine boosters (as opposed to putting the effort into getting the rest of the world up-to-speed on initial shots).
The question I don't know the answer to, is how likely is it that further mutations would produce something as, or more, contagious than omicron, but more lethal? Is there any way to know that? Is it a given that any further increase in infectiousness will involve still milder symptoms?
Is omicron going to be the way that the vaccine-refuseniks finally acquire some level of immunity?
It's partly because I now know of someone nearly 90 who got the omicron variant and got through it in a week or two without needing medical attention. It does seem like it's a very different disease to previous strains. (I mean, I know two friends-of-friends in their 50s who died of previous strains).
This was already the case with delta. People now forget the hysteria over delta: as transmissible as measles! Health experts were already saying then that if you're not vaccinated, you'll eventually get infected.
Omicron does change the landscape because of immune escape, but that is balanced by the lower virulence. But again, the delta waves already had proven to us that the unvaccinated were going to acquire their immunity naturally. Especially since they've had a "see no evil" approach to COVID since last summer anyway. The best example of this is the UK's delta surge, which was basically from July to December, and only ended because omicron outcompeted delta.
As for the future, nobody really knows. There is a mild consensus that it's unlikely you'll have a "worse" strain than omicron. It's not impossible, but it would have to be more transmissible to outcompete omicron. But if it's also more virulent, it would kill more people rather than allowing them to go to work and infect more people.
But people like Dr. Fauci are saying it's too early to declare "pandemic over" because it's hard to predict the future.
Don't be like our resident expert who predicted the end is near, in November 2020:
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