NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[CZroe]

I'm surprised that scientists identified variant P.1 as being present in Brazil in December of 2020. Does Brazil actually do any surveillance testing? Do they freeze some swabs for later analysis? I mean, we are talking about Brazil! I just wonder if it was present b/4 December. The apparent explosive spread in an area where 75% of the population had already been infected is troubling and suggest that it could take years to eliminate COVID-19 (or, that it might become like influenza).

Original article: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...re-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil

Coronaviruses already are like influenza: The common cold. Even if this novel coronavirus becomes endemic that really only means it will become like the common cold since we will have partial immunity (resistance) to new variants. No existing resistance is what really distinguished it and it will not longer have that distinguishment.

 

[Ajay]

Coronaviruses already are like influenza: The common cold. Even if this novel coronavirus becomes endemic that really only means it will become like the common cold since we will have partial immunity (resistance) to new variants. No existing resistance is what really distinguished it and it will not longer have that distinguishment.

What? The morbidity rate on the common cold (Rhinovirus) is nothing like influenza, let alone COVID. It's too early to tell if that distinction will fade out. What if SARS-COV-2 has a high successful mutation rate two or three times faster than that of influenza B? I don't know what is going to happen; I just know it's starting to look like a more challenging long term project than we thought it would be just a few months ago.

I do take your point, that 50% immunity, for example, would be better than zero.

 

[CZroe]

What? The morbidity rate on the common cold (Rhinovirus) is nothing like influenza, let alone COVID. It's too early to tell if that distinction will fade out. What if SARS-COV-2 has a high successful mutation rate two or three times faster than that of influenza B? I don't know what is going to happen; I just know it's starting to look like a more challenging long term project than we thought it would be just a few months ago.

I do take your point, that 50% immunity, for example, would be better than zero.

It's only so morbid because we had no existing resistance. Morbidity goes down once it becomes endemic because we keep getting exposed and our immune systems are primed. That isn't the case for first time exposure to the novel strain, hence, pandemic. The derivative endemic strains lack that novelty.

Example: Some pandemic influenzas obviously did have comparable (or worse) morbidities and they don't now that they are endemic.

It's certainly not too early to see if that distinction will fade out since it started out being driven by mild and asymptomatic cases typical of colds, unlike something like 2009 Pandemic Swine Flu. IOW, it was already distinct from the start.

 

[manly]

I constantly hear of an extreme pressure on ICU capacity, but haven't seen anything about it actually running out. I'm thinking the death rate is due partly to this government's instincts always being to open things up as much as possible so as to keep the rents and profits flowing (that ludicrous scheme for subsidising upmarket restaurant meals - i.e. the kind that Tory MPs eat - so as to encourage people to eat out, being the most absurd example), partly because of their decades of under-investment in the NHS, and partly due to Brits just being not the most healthy of peoples, in terms of things like obesity rates. Perhaps the new coroniavirus strain is part of it also.

In some ways, extreme pressure is a euphemism for running out. In Southern California, ICU beds basically ran out so hospitals went to "surge" plans by adding more beds. But you couldn't really add more nurses (because of the regional crisis) so intensive care was essentially being rationed. I believe that's a large part of why the mortality in L.A. County and the UK has been so high in recent weeks.

I understand the rest of the strategic misfires you mentioned, but Americans aren't known as healthy people either. The official U.S. CFR is about 1% lower than the UK's. If you want to analyze what real numbers look like, it can be pretty jarring:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

https://twitter.com/x/status/1349894094290563072

On another note, it seems like a third wave is hitting Spain and France. Being that the U.S. tends to trail western Europe by a few weeks, this is potentially disastrous news. Everyone here is now assuming the U.S. has seen the worst of the pandemic and is on a glide path to better days once vaccinations pick up. But as Dr. Fauci recently said, we're in a race against time. And unlike Europe, U.S. counties either had few restrictions or are already removing those restrictions.

 

[K1052]

Novavax UK/SA phase 3 results.

SA group small so those figures less informative.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1354899611652128770

 

[Svnla]

COVAX

www.who.int

COVAX was setup for that purpose. Canada has committed to donating unused supply. AstraZeneca is also affordable, just need to wait for production rampup

Saw on Bloomberg TV earlier today that EU is cracking down on exporting of those vaccines from manufacturers with plants/facilities that based in EU countries.

 

[sdifox]

Saw on Bloomberg TV earlier today that EU is cracking down on exporting of those vaccines from manufacturers with plants/facilities that based in EU countries.

Funny enough this is one time Brexit is a plus sign. AstraZeneca is based in UK xd
Chances are the licensing for all vaccines will happen.

 

[Mai72]

Seems that Dr. Osterholm is very concerned with the variants of COVID19, specificaly the B117 variant. He then went on to state that we could easily blow past 300,000 cases a day.

If that were to happen, that would be nuts. Dr. Osterholm has for the most part been accurate when he gave his prediction back last March.

 

[Zorba]

Looks like JNJ results next week. Dose availability is a little different than what we've heard so far but previous comments could have meant scale deliveries start in April.

Also there were arms in Brazil and South Africa so data on performance vs variants is likely.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1354041623420809217

If definitely seems like companies didn't actually start manufacturing at risk. Probably standing up manufacturing, but not actually producing.

 

[Zorba]

I constantly hear of an extreme pressure on ICU capacity, but haven't seen anything about it actually running out. I'm thinking the death rate is due partly to this government's instincts always being to open things up as much as possible so as to keep the rents and profits flowing (that ludicrous scheme for subsidising upmarket restaurant meals - i.e. the kind that Tory MPs eat - so as to encourage people to eat out, being the most absurd example), partly because of their decades of under-investment in the NHS, and partly due to Brits just being not the most healthy of peoples, in terms of things like obesity rates. Perhaps the new coroniavirus strain is part of it also.

At least around here, the hospitals and ICUs will never run out of space, because the barrier for entry keeps climbing. Our ICUs hit 96% full a couple months ago, since then our infections have sky rocketed, deaths way up, but ICU space has stayed the same. I personally know a 6 year-old that would be in the hospital at any other point in time, but she has never made it past the ER. She goes to the ER when her O2 drops below 90%, they give her some oxygen, they come up, they kick her out.

 

[Zorba]

Novavax UK/SA phase 3 results.

SA group small so those figures less informative.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1354899611652128770

Mostly good news, 60% on the SA strain for people that don't have HIV. Much better than 0%. The article didn't say, but the other 40% likely had milder cases as well. This does show why it is so important to get the vaccines out quickly and to slow the spread as much as possible in the meantime. The more this thing spreads the more it will evolve.

In other news my wife got the Novavax shot yesterday. Pretty sure it was the real thing. I'm not able to do it because I regularly donate platelets .

 

[pmv]

At least around here, the hospitals and ICUs will never run out of space, because the barrier for entry keeps climbing. Our ICUs hit 96% full a couple months ago, since then our infections have sky rocketed, deaths way up, but ICU space has stayed the same. I personally know a 6 year-old that would be in the hospital at any other point in time, but she has never made it past the ER. She goes to the ER when her O2 drops below 90%, they give her some oxygen, they come up, they kick her out.

On the subject of ICUs, this sort of thing mystifies me. When did everyone go crazy?

Is it that the better communication technology becomes, the more people will infect each other with madness?

Hospital incursions by Covid deniers putting lives at risk, say health leaders

Healthcare and police chiefs also say online activity is channelling hatred against NHS staff

www.theguardian.com

 

[pmv]

Though I'm tempted by the "Babel fish" theory (the bit in Hitchhiker's Guide about how, by removing all language barriers to communication, the Babel Fish ended up causing more wars than any other discovery in history - the internet, likewise by allowing everyone to talk to each other, has revealed just how deranged most of us are) I still ultimately believe people believe what they do as a result of the circumstances and experiences of their lives. Something about the nature of many people's lives in this world causes them to believe nonsense. I just can't figure out what that is.

 

[K1052]

Mostly good news, 60% on the SA strain for people that don't have HIV. Much better than 0%. The article didn't say, but the other 40% likely had milder cases as well. This does show why it is so important to get the vaccines out quickly and to slow the spread as much as possible in the meantime. The more this thing spreads the more it will evolve.

In other news my wife got the Novavax shot yesterday. Pretty sure it was the real thing. I'm not able to do it because I regularly donate platelets .

SA group was only 4400 and the number of events small so its hard to say definitively what's going on. Didn't seem to be any severe disease in the vaccine arm though.

 

[K1052]

J&J single dose results are in.

Headline figure kind of undersells that it does prevent severe disease and hospitalization. They’re doing a two dose study also which should Improve that figure too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1355138883592269829

 

[Svnla]

Disney will delay all cruises until May or later. Air traffic around the world are still down. Not good if you work in leisure/travel/hospitality businesses.

 

[Kaido]

Disney will delay all cruises until May or later. Air traffic around the world are still down. Not good if you work in leisure/travel/hospitality businesses.

Coming up on the year anniversary of the start of the spread in the U.S. in a few months...I think this is just going to still be the "new normal" for awhile. Probably at least half of the people I've talked to over the past couple of months have stated they're not going to take the vaccine. I was on the fence about it, and I'm not happy about the unknown long-term effects (as I have personal negative experiences with that), but the long-term side-effects of the virus look pretty scary, not to mention the risk of death. Sign me up!

 

[Kaido]

J&J single dose results are in.

Headline figure kind of undersells that it does prevent severe disease and hospitalization. They’re doing a two dose study also which should Improve that figure too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1355138883592269829

66% sounds bad on paper, but it's a question of tilting the odds in your favor. Most of us took Flintstones vitamins growing up...it's a small drop in the health bucket, but our parents were willing to give us a boost of a tiny percentage by giving us our vitamins, so 66% is a pretty big leap over a possibly 0% unvaccinated immunity!

 

[Svnla]

Coming up on the year anniversary of the start of the spread in the U.S. in a few months...I think this is just going to still be the "new normal" for awhile. Probably at least half of the people I've talked to over the past couple of months have stated they're not going to take the vaccine. I was on the fence about it, and I'm not happy about the unknown long-term effects (as I have personal negative experiences with that), but the long-term side-effects of the virus look pretty scary, not to mention the risk of death. Sign me up!

As I said above, working in certain fields are horrible right now. More than half of pilots around the world are not working in the same field and many that are working with permanent lower salaries.

....only 43% were doing the job they had trained for, with 30% unemployed, 17% furloughed and 10% in non-flying roles.

.... Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd, for example, instituted permanent pay cuts of up to 58%, and Turkish Airways and Singapore Airlines Ltd have temporarily lowering salaries.

More than half of world's airline pilots no longer flying - survey | Reuters

I am not crazy about the longer term (years down the road, not just a few months or a year) effect of the vaccines, especially to my future kid(s). Pick your poison and cross your fingers indeed.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Actually doing pretty bad here in Canada now. To think we were actually doing half decent at the start.

The numbers are in: Canada’s COVID-fighting efforts are among world’s worst - Macleans.ca

Scott Gilmore: Every day 130 Canadians die. Our economy staggers. We are failing to properly respond to COVID and it may only get worse.

www.macleans.ca

 

[Scarpozzi]

Actually doing pretty bad here in Canada now. To think we were actually doing half decent at the start.

The numbers are in: Canada’s COVID-fighting efforts are among world’s worst - Macleans.ca

Scott Gilmore: Every day 130 Canadians die. Our economy staggers. We are failing to properly respond to COVID and it may only get worse.

www.macleans.ca

I think it's worse in rural communities these days because people spread it by ignoring the risk. Last Summer/Fall I knew of pool parties and baseball games and football parties. The numbers shot up.

Vaccines have short term side effects..... rarely long term ones. My wife took 2 doses of Pfizer, but didn't feel bad until the second dose...about 24 hours afterwards. The next morning, she felt fine.

She took the antibody test and passed it, so it appears to have worked. She still masks up and treats exposure risks as high.

Take the vaccine if you can. Any one is better than none.

 

[H T C]

Actually doing pretty bad here in Canada now. To think we were actually doing half decent at the start.

The numbers are in: Canada’s COVID-fighting efforts are among world’s worst - Macleans.ca

Scott Gilmore: Every day 130 Canadians die. Our economy staggers. We are failing to properly respond to COVID and it may only get worse.

www.macleans.ca

Compared to Portugal, you're doing pretty good.

We had over 16K new daily cases and 303 fatalities last Thursday, both of which are Portugal's "all time records": those numbers may not sound that bad until you account for population differences, and they would be the equivalent of over 512K new daily cases and nearly 9.7K fatalities in USA (USA has roughly 32 times Portugal's population).

We had as many as 40 ambulances waiting @ one of our major hospital's entrance to drop off patients, also last Thursday, because the hospital couldn't cope with the rush of patients, some of which were waiting as much as 20 HOURS before finally being admitted to the hospital.

 

[KMFJD]

This story in Philly is something

In Philadelphia, A Scandal Erupts Over Vaccination Startup Led By 22-Year-Old

City officials gave coronavirus vaccines to Philly Fighting Covid, whose brash CEO had no health care experience. After a WHYY investigation, the city cut ties with the group over alleged misconduct.

www.npr.org

‘’The investigation revealed that in December, just before Philly Fighting Covid began its vaccination work, it reorganized and became a for-profit company called Vax Populi.’’

 

[K1052]

66% sounds bad on paper, but it's a question of tilting the odds in your favor. Most of us took Flintstones vitamins growing up...it's a small drop in the health bucket, but our parents were willing to give us a boost of a tiny percentage by giving us our vitamins, so 66% is a pretty big leap over a possibly 0% unvaccinated immunity!

And It is 85% effective in preventing severe disease and the immune response seems to improve over time. They are running a two dose trial also with the 2nd dose coming at 57 days.

Does appear increasingly likely vaccine makers will have to design a follow on shot for the E484 mutations but that's doable.

 

[K1052]

Seems like a number of constraints on the fill/finish side of things with this and Biontech teaming up with Novartis. AZ supposedly also having problems.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1355298210030432256