CZroe
Lifer
- Jun 24, 2001
- 24,195
- 856
- 126
The organizers have about 6 months or so to make it work. The bad thing is they already spent billion and billion to set up the whole thing and if it is canceled, it would hurt a lot financially.
Tokyo Olympics 'unlikely to go ahead in 2021'
Former London 2012 Olympics boss says Tokyo event likely to be disrupted by Covid-19 pandemic.www.bbc.com
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Welcome to 2020... the year when Japan already canceled their Summer Olympics and it was already cost billions and it already hurt a lot financially. People were already angry that Japan didn't cancel it as soon as it was clear that it wasn't contained.
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IronWing
No Lifer
- Jul 20, 2001
- 69,006
- 26,884
- 136
As of this morning, I can't even get to the scheduling tool. Someone didn't pay for scaling their servers.
More bad news
www.theguardian.com
I also don't really understand this bit:
"The theory of the tradeoff between infectivity and lethality goes that a virus is programmed for survival. If it is too deadly, it will kill off its hosts. So if it starts to spread more, the lethality reduces, because if it didn’t, there would be nobody left to infect."
That seems to be attributing a capacity for planning and fore-thought, as well as intentionality to the virus. Surely that only applies in an evolutionary sense, i.e. retrospectively over the long term and large scale? Surely any given virus could just as easily randomly mutate to be both more contagious _and_ more dangerous. It can't _know_ that won't be good for it's future.
Viruses that do that may well then go extinct from killing its hosts, but so what? That won't prevent another virus from one day making the same "error".
The only way it could work is via a kind of meta-evolution, where the capacity for certain kinds of mutation are themselves selectable traits? So viruses that are capable of mutating in such a way don't survive. But is the capacity for certain kinds of mutation something that can itself be selected for by selection of random mutations?
In any case, this is still not good news.
Reasons why Covid variant could kill more people are uncertain
Analysis: Whatever the answer, everyone has to try even harder not to catch it in the first place
I also don't really understand this bit:
"The theory of the tradeoff between infectivity and lethality goes that a virus is programmed for survival. If it is too deadly, it will kill off its hosts. So if it starts to spread more, the lethality reduces, because if it didn’t, there would be nobody left to infect."
That seems to be attributing a capacity for planning and fore-thought, as well as intentionality to the virus. Surely that only applies in an evolutionary sense, i.e. retrospectively over the long term and large scale? Surely any given virus could just as easily randomly mutate to be both more contagious _and_ more dangerous. It can't _know_ that won't be good for it's future.
Viruses that do that may well then go extinct from killing its hosts, but so what? That won't prevent another virus from one day making the same "error".
The only way it could work is via a kind of meta-evolution, where the capacity for certain kinds of mutation are themselves selectable traits? So viruses that are capable of mutating in such a way don't survive. But is the capacity for certain kinds of mutation something that can itself be selected for by selection of random mutations?
In any case, this is still not good news.
destrekor
Lifer
- Nov 18, 2005
- 28,799
- 359
- 126
More bad news
Reasons why Covid variant could kill more people are uncertain
Analysis: Whatever the answer, everyone has to try even harder not to catch it in the first place
I also don't really understand this bit:
"The theory of the tradeoff between infectivity and lethality goes that a virus is programmed for survival. If it is too deadly, it will kill off its hosts. So if it starts to spread more, the lethality reduces, because if it didn’t, there would be nobody left to infect."
That seems to be attributing a capacity for planning and fore-thought, as well as intentionality to the virus. Surely that only applies in an evolutionary sense, i.e. retrospectively over the long term and large scale? Surely any given virus could just as easily randomly mutate to be both more contagious _and_ more dangerous. It can't _know_ that won't be good for it's future.
Viruses that do that may well then go extinct from killing its hosts, but so what? That won't prevent another virus from one day making the same "error".
The only way it could work is via a kind of meta-evolution, where the capacity for certain kinds of mutation are themselves selectable traits? So viruses that are capable of mutating in such a way don't survive. But is the capacity for certain kinds of mutation something that can itself be selected for by selection of random mutations?
In any case, this is still not good news.
Evolution is a tricky thing to word. It's the same at all scales, in general discussion it often seems as if there is a will and intention attributed to every change at the genetic and physical levels. But in reality the actual organism doesn't really have a say or role, nor do the individual cells or their organelles for that matter. I'd argue it serves as a tidy way to present the base concept in simple language that can help illustrate the idea for the widest array of people.
It's almost more a physics puzzle than anything else. Viruses that kill a high rate of people tend to limit their own spread, which means such viruses often don't spread all that well in the end. IIRC it seems most of the deadliest viruses often have an element of speed to them, where you can't medically intervene fast enough, either due to severity of acute symptoms or rapid replication leading to overwhelming everything.
Though this virus, in my mind, might have a better chance than most at breaking the mold, considering it can have a decently long incubation period, a significant period of asymptomatic transmission, and when sickness progresses it's kind of all over the map - death has been fast after first severe symptoms, but has also been slow, after a long long fight; most problematic is the asymptomatic spread and incubation, as that has helps break quarantines and conceal wider spread. Qualities you definitely don't want to see matched up with the original SARS and MERS fatality rates. Perhaps we've learned enough about the immune reaction to novel coronaviruses that today those variants wouldn't have the same fatality rate, which would be great for us. But if they still produce a high number of long-term ICU stays, that can make all deaths from many causes all jump up if it has a significant enough spread rate (that oft-mentioned R-value)
Zorba
Lifer
- Oct 22, 1999
- 14,519
- 9,895
- 136
Yeah, I've been watching the peds trials everyday and noticed it was missing from the list today. Figured out it was because it is fully. Hopefully they expand to prepubescent kids shortly. I will offer up my 5 year-old as a tribute.
Ajay
Lifer
- Jan 8, 2001
- 15,429
- 7,847
- 136
Fortunately, I was at my computer when the CDC emailed me to schedule a vaccination. I immediately went to the their site, filled out the required web forms and have a date of Jan 28th for my 1st dose! I feel like I won the lottery! Not sure which vaccine I'll be getting - I'd like Pfizer just because of the shorter interval to the second dose; but I'm not going to look this gift horse in the mouth. This is really good news as it's looking like my wife will be transitioning from work at home back to her elementary school sometime next month.
I am little worried about her, in elementary school it's the teachers that kept coming down with COVID - really don't understand the city's position on this as they have pushed the responsibility down to individual school principles as to whether or not to return to remote learning if the infection rate goes up (WTF?). They have been given some guidelines to follow, but why the hell the health department isn't making these determinations is totally beyond me.
I am little worried about her, in elementary school it's the teachers that kept coming down with COVID - really don't understand the city's position on this as they have pushed the responsibility down to individual school principles as to whether or not to return to remote learning if the infection rate goes up (WTF?). They have been given some guidelines to follow, but why the hell the health department isn't making these determinations is totally beyond me.
Svnla
Lifer
- Nov 10, 2003
- 17,999
- 1,396
- 126
Schools across Africa are shutting down because new cases are spiking up. Asia and Europe are not doing well either. I think the Olympics would be cancel sooner than later if new cases keep going up and up.
Covid !9: Schools across Africa shutdown as second wave cases spike - CNN
Australia will suspense all travel to New Zealand for 72 hours.
.
Covid !9: Schools across Africa shutdown as second wave cases spike - CNN
Australia will suspense all travel to New Zealand for 72 hours.
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K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 46,021
- 32,993
- 136
Moderna says that existing vaccine works against the UK and South African variants but there is a drop off in neutralizing antibody activity for the latter. Because the vaccines induce such high antibody levels this is more of concern to watch than a huge problem right now. They've also developed a booster for the spike mutations found in the South African one and are moving to test it.
- Jan 2, 2001
- 24,983
- 4,314
- 136
Fauci on the new UK variant: "I'm pretty convinced there is a degree of increase in seriousness of the actual infection."
He said the plateauing of new cases is likely signaling the end of the holiday surge, but this is absolutely no time to get complacent, especially with the new variants spreading around.
He said the plateauing of new cases is likely signaling the end of the holiday surge, but this is absolutely no time to get complacent, especially with the new variants spreading around.
GodisanAtheist
Diamond Member
- Nov 16, 2006
- 6,783
- 7,113
- 136
Just got a call from my mom that she tested positive for Covid, and it sounds like my Dad is coming down with the symptoms as well. Both are in their late 60's, not in terrible or great health, and my Dad was on the waitlist at his work to get the jab.
Both describe feeling more run down than they have ever felt before, basically eat/drink/sleep/repeat.
Keeping my finger's crossed, I'd rather have parent's who do the whole "It wasn't THAT bad" thing over no parents. Can't do anything about it now other then check in on the daily, but there is that, so not getting super wrapped up about it.
Prior to this current surge, the virus was always somewhere else affecting someone else, but its slowly crept in closer and closer as more people I know get it. Kinda wild, like meeting a celebrity.
Both describe feeling more run down than they have ever felt before, basically eat/drink/sleep/repeat.
Keeping my finger's crossed, I'd rather have parent's who do the whole "It wasn't THAT bad" thing over no parents. Can't do anything about it now other then check in on the daily, but there is that, so not getting super wrapped up about it.
Prior to this current surge, the virus was always somewhere else affecting someone else, but its slowly crept in closer and closer as more people I know get it. Kinda wild, like meeting a celebrity.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 46,021
- 32,993
- 136
There is a lot of antibody therapy lying around unused. Might be worth seeing if their doctor can refer them for infusion.
Fanatical Meat
Lifer
- Feb 4, 2009
- 34,553
- 15,766
- 136
Seems like a simple problem, to my understanding the few people who have bad reactions also have known allergies. Also it appears a basic epi pen solves the problem.
Keep people around a little longer post shot, keep those with known allergies around longer, ask people to bring their epi pens along & keep an adequate stock of epi pens on hand.
Zorba
Lifer
- Oct 22, 1999
- 14,519
- 9,895
- 136
- Jan 2, 2001
- 24,983
- 4,314
- 136
Here's hoping for the very best of outcomes for both of them.
Ichinisan
Lifer
- Oct 9, 2002
- 28,298
- 1,234
- 136
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 46,021
- 32,993
- 136
Donor plasma is pretty wildly inconsistent with different levels of neutralizing antibodies. These therapies are manufactured after effective neutralizing antibodies are selected for production. Eli Lilly uses one antibody and Regeneron uses two. The only downside is that they need to be given early on in the course of illness and it's an IV infusion.
Svnla
Lifer
- Nov 10, 2003
- 17,999
- 1,396
- 126
Double masking = better? I think I will stay with my regular mask (double layers) with a filter in the middle. It is working fine for me along with washing hands, keep a distance from others, and common sense/good hygiene practices.
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GDPR Support
www.ajc.com
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UK variant spreading in SE MI thanks to someone in Michigan who traveled there and brought it back
https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbo...ses-identified-at-university-of-michigan.html
Fortunately I am posting this from the waiting room after getting my first Pfizer vaccine shot
https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbo...ses-identified-at-university-of-michigan.html
Fortunately I am posting this from the waiting room after getting my first Pfizer vaccine shot
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