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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Dec 10, 2005
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The government is not likely to tell anybody except the immunocompromised that they need 3rd shots this year, absent something unusual happening. Though a lot of those people are already just going out and getting the extra shot.
I don't quite understand all this rush to get 3rd shots (or second shots if you had J&J) - it's all very back of the envelope and built on somewhat shitty, piecemeal data. Just run a confirmatory trial that protection is actually provided by the extra shot relative to the standard dosing - the incidence rate of covid should be high enough for a trial to generate data fairly quickly.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
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I don't quite understand all this rush to get 3rd shots (or second shots if you had J&J) - it's all very back of the envelope and built on somewhat shitty, piecemeal data. Just run a confirmatory trial that protection is actually provided by the extra shot relative to the standard dosing - the incidence rate of covid should be high enough for a trial to generate data fairly quickly.
I think we'll get some of that data from Pfizer next month so we'll see what it says. NIH is running mix and match trials too. Delta has people kinda freaked out.

From what I've read a lot of the breakthrough cases in hospitals are immunocompromised people. Given the low risk of additional dosing I'd expect them to get the nod for a 3rd soon which looks like would provoke a better immune response in at least some of them.
 
Dec 10, 2005
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I think we'll get some of that data from Pfizer next month so we'll see what it says. NIH is running mix and match trials too. Delta has people kinda freaked out.

I get that, but there are people that should know better. Constantly jumping the gun needlessly doesn't instill confidence in public health decisions. Look at our utter failure to run proper trials in the US for treatments compared to the RECOVERY trial in the UK.

From what I've read a lot of the breakthrough cases in hospitals are immunocompromised people. Given the low risk of additional dosing I'd expect them to get the nod for a 3rd soon which looks like would provoke a better immune response in at least some of them.
I certainly understand that; but that should be a relatively small population. It would help if more people got vaccinated in the first place, but here we are...
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,304
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I get that, but there are people that should know better. Constantly jumping the gun needlessly doesn't instill confidence in public health decisions. Look at our utter failure to run proper trials in the US for treatments compared to the RECOVERY trial in the UK.
Well on the plus side we actually know the vaccines work unlike the idiots still pounding down ivermectin. But yes before a 3rd dose is recommended to the general public we should possess the data to back up that call.

I certainly understand that; but that should be a relatively small population. It would help if more people got vaccinated in the first place, but here we are...
Yeah we are where we are unfortunately.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,007
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,763
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Case counts here in UK been coming down again for the last week. But I'm wondering if that's not just the "EUFA" wave subsiding, and we have yet to see the effects of the end of pandemic restrictions (that were only lifted a week ago, and whose effects on case counts won't be seen for another week).

On the other hand, the Imperial College modellers, whose alarming forecasts caused the government to abandon it's "herd immunity through infection" strategy the first time round, are now saying we'll be out of the woods by October. So maybe there will be one last wave of infections, as a result of lockdown ending, starting very soon, and then that, the sixth wave, will be the last, and it will be all over by Christmas, at least domestically?

Trouble is, if it's still raging away in poorer countries without sufficient vaccines, is there not then a risk of new variants appearing, that will evade the vaccines and spread around the world again?
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,566
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www.uovalor.com

pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,763
3,710
136
Falling case numbers here might just be a statistical artifact, according to Prof Spector (and his wall of COVID).



On the other hand, the Imperial College modellers, who have been far from over-optimistic so far, are forecasting the pandemic will largely be over in the UK by October, as we'll have achieved 'herd immunity'. Though that must surely depend on no new vaccine-evading variants appearing before then? There's also all those countries that don't have sufficient vaccine supplies, that could produce such a variant, which could then go global, no?
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
61,319
5,158
126
We hit almost 85,000 cases in the US yesterday with very few places flinching on reopening. September is going to be interesting.
 

Torn Mind

Diamond Member
Nov 25, 2012
6,076
743
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Ouch that's not good. Will also give ammunition to antivaxxers. "see? It does not matter if you get the vaccine!" I presume these cases are rare though. Maybe for some people the vaccine just does not work that well.
People make erroneous inferences all over the place....
The proper take is that efficacy is never 100%. Thus, one never should have thought they were "all clear" and other defenses suddenly became unnecessary and "normal" can fully be back. For the sake of collective altruism, protecting that one exception(The Black Lotus) matters and it is evident people would rather be socially satisfied than continuing to play defense. Plus, effectiveness is a different concept from efficacy.

That doesn't mean the vaccine is useless or didn't work either. The vaccine works as it should but wishful thinking and motivated reasoning made people desperate to believe it alone would have fairy dust powers that would keep the body pure.

5% of 20 million is 1 million.

People also have a problem with small number. Comparing tens, thousands, millions, and billions have a understandable change in scale. But talk about tenths, thousandths, millionths, and billionths, and peoples' brains start thinking "synonymous".

 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
51,876
4,338
126
People make erroneous inferences all over the place....
The proper take is that efficacy is never 100%. Thus, one never should have thought they were "all clear" and other defenses suddenly became unnecessary and "normal" can fully be back. For the sake of collective altruism, protecting that one exception(The Black Lotus) matters and it is evident people would rather be socially satisfied than continuing to play defense. Plus, effectiveness is a different concept from efficacy.

That doesn't mean the vaccine is useless or didn't work either. The vaccine works as it should but wishful thinking and motivated reasoning made people desperate to believe it alone would have fairy dust powers that would keep the body pure.

5% of 20 million is 1 million.

People also have a problem with small number. Comparing tens, thousands, millions, and billions have a understandable change in scale. But talk about tenths, thousandths, millionths, and billionths, and peoples' brains start thinking "synonymous".

Red Squirrel in particular loves his erroneous inferences.
 

local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,813
473
136
I'm skeptical this is a good idea, to say the least.

I bet this is in response to Austin trying to mandate vaccines for city workers yesterday.

Reading it though I do not believe it would stop an organization from restricting access to someone for refusing to take a test, they just cannot restrict on vaccination status. So require daily testing unless you show proof of vaccination. Although I'm sure he would EO that away pretty quick.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
61,319
5,158
126
I'm ashamed to say I was Dallas this weekend. I was at an indoor invent of several hundred people and one of about 20 people that was continuously masked. I've been vaccinated since January but feel out of good conscience I should get tested again.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,304
11,762
136
I'm ashamed to say I was Dallas this weekend. I was at an indoor invent of several hundred people and one of about 20 people that was continuously masked. I've been vaccinated since January but feel out of good conscience I should get tested again.
I've stocked up on antigen tests. I have to go to Las Covi...er...Las Vegas the third week in August. Some will be coming along.
 

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