NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[MrSquished]

I heard the best booster shot was getting onto a Jeff Bezos rocket then jumping out during the apex of LEO

 

[K1052]

There is a Lambda variant floating around now but I don't know much about it. I thought I heard that Pfizer was going to seek EUA for the multivalent booster by the end of August, but perhaps I misunderstood.

They want to submit for it by August or September but it will take time to review and I don’t think the FDA will be in too much of a rush. Absent some surprise I’d be kind of amazed if they authorized much before the end of the year at the earliest.

 

[Torn Mind]

Also don't forget that EVERY school starts in Sept too ... with VERY few mask mandates in effect.

Some school systems are more cautious than others, but every system has implemented some form of classroom return.

I expect Delta to cripple select states who thought COVID could be manageable without needing vaccines.

I also expect "silent sufferers" among the vaccinated because they are going out and about and the 5-10% who don't get the efficacy of the vaccine will get struck with it.

People have perception problem with small numbers, especially past the decimal point. Each added 0 is a division by ten. 10% to 5% is a reduction in half. If one out of every 20 people are going to not avoid infection even with vaccination, then that means vigilance should remain. So, the CDC telling vaccinated people they didn't need masks is highly suspect advice; the vaccinated may not be harmed as severely by COVID but they are likely helping it spread because COVID doesn't need to cause symptoms to spread.

 

[local]

There is a Lambda variant floating around now but I don't know much about it. I thought I heard that Pfizer was going to seek EUA for the multivalent booster by the end of August, but perhaps I misunderstood.

They want to submit for it by August or September but it will take time to review and I don’t think the FDA will be in too much of a rush. Absent some surprise I’d be kind of amazed if they authorized much before the end of the year at the earliest.

The current Pfizer booster trial is for a 3rd shot of the exact same concoction as the first two. A trial for the Delta modified version is anticipated to start in August or September.

Yes, I am still in the Pfizer trial but did not get selected to receive the booster.

 

[K1052]

The current Pfizer booster trial is for a 3rd shot of the exact same concoction as the first two. A trial for the Delta modified version is anticipated to start in August or September.

Yes, I am still in the Pfizer trial but did not get selected to receive the booster.

My recollection is that they were testing a version that also covers Beta variant in addition to testing a 3rd dose of their original vaccine. They could have decided not to and I didn’t see it.

 

[local]

My recollection is that they were testing a version that also covers Beta variant in addition to testing a 3rd dose of their original vaccine. They could have decided not to and I didn’t see it.

While I obviously am not privy to everything the only trial that is happening that I know of is the 3rd dose version. I know they prepped a Beta version like they have now for Delta but I believe that one was scrapped.

 

[Zorba]

There is a Lambda variant floating around now but I don't know much about it. I thought I heard that Pfizer was going to seek EUA for the multivalent booster by the end of August, but perhaps I misunderstood.

I think I read they were going to start trials for it. I assume it'd go straight to a small phase 3, but IDK.

 

[Zorba]

While I obviously am not privy to everything the only trial that is happening that I know of is the 3rd dose version. I know they prepped a Beta version like they have now for Delta but I believe that one was scrapped.

They're running the kiddie trials now too.

 

[Roger Wilco]

NYT article says Delta is milder than Beta was in lab studies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418540110883209218

I don't have an NYT subscription...maybe it's time to get one.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

I think I read they were going to start trials for it. I assume it'd go straight to a small phase 3, but IDK.

Yep, I had my details wrong. They're seeking approval for a third dose of the existing vaccine next month while also starting trials for the multivalent version. I'm going to monitor the situation for a little while and probably just go get a dose of Pfizer at CVS. I've heard CVS may not give you the dose if you've already had the J&J, but do they actually have visibility into your state's particular database to check? I sincerely doubt it.

 

[K1052]

Yep, I had my details wrong. They're seeking approval for a third dose of the existing vaccine next month while also starting trials for the multivalent version. I'm going to monitor the situation for a little while and probably just go get a dose of Pfizer at CVS. I've heard CVS may not give you the dose if you've already had the J&J, but do they actually have visibility into your state's particular database to check? I sincerely doubt it.

Yeah, it's pretty unlikely they are checking.

 

[K1052]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418544731970281472

The companies expect to deliver 110 million of the additional doses by December 31, 2021, with the remaining 90 million doses to be delivered no later than April 30, 2022. The U.S. government also has the option to acquire an updated version of the vaccine to address potential variants as well as new formulations of the vaccine, if available and authorized.

Seems like a smart insurance policy. We can always donate the doses if we don't need them but maintains continued access.

 

[jpiniero]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418544731970281472

Seems like a smart insurance policy. We can always donate the doses if we don't need them but maintains continued access.

Unless they are expecting a surge in demand once full approval is given I don't see the point. The US is barely using any vaccines right now as it is. An option to acquire the multivariant vaccine (if approved) I could see.

Booster does nothing for me.

Edit: CDC says J&J only has 13M shots so far. I believe they bought 200 million. Maybe J&J should be trying the booster, not Pfizer.

 

[K1052]

Unless they are expecting a surge in demand once full approval is given I don't see the point. The US is barely using any vaccines right now as it is. An option to acquire the multivariant vaccine (if approved) I could see.

Booster does nothing for me.

Edit: CDC says J&J only has 13M shots so far. I believe they bought 200 million. Maybe J&J should be trying the booster, not Pfizer

Full approval will create some demand since more entities are likely to mandate vaccination after that. Plus the EUA for 5-11 will come down sometime later this year so they're going to want to have doses available as some older lots have probably expired out. The rest seems like a hedge for a possible boost with the original formulation depending on what data Pfizer presents from its testing or worst case an emergency multivalent if something nasty unexpected shows up.

It's clear the government doesn't want to get caught empty handed in any event.

Edit: Because of the technology involved it's much easier for the mRNA producers to turn on a dime and get into mass production. The adenovirus guys (J&J and AZ) have to build new cell lines to grow the updated vaccine and get those into the production which is touchier. It's a big risky commitment.

 

[Muse]

NYT article says Delta is milder than Beta was in lab studies.

I don't have an NYT subscription...maybe it's time to get one.

I got a free trial and let it spill to paid. I believe I'm paying $8/mo. autopay on a CC, online NYT.

 

[allisolm]

Fl has less than 50% fully vaccinated and accounts for 20% of the nation's new cases and in my FL county, the main hospital announced a moratorium on voluntary surgeries that require inpatient stays, and a reopening of the section just for covid-19 patients. There are too many to just put in individual negative pressure rooms. For us it's 0 steps forward and 2 steps back. At least all but 2 of the current covid patients there are nonvaccinated folks.

 

[Zorba]

NYT article says Delta is milder than Beta was in lab studies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418540110883209218

I don't have an NYT subscription...maybe it's time to get one.

I finally broke down and got a NYT and WaPo. Well worth it, IMHO.

 

[Zorba]

Yep, I had my details wrong. They're seeking approval for a third dose of the existing vaccine next month while also starting trials for the multivalent version. I'm going to monitor the situation for a little while and probably just go get a dose of Pfizer at CVS. I've heard CVS may not give you the dose if you've already had the J&J, but do they actually have visibility into your state's particular database to check? I sincerely doubt it.

If I had gotten J&J I'd probably try to get one. It won't hurt and peace of mind is worth a lot.

 

[local]

They're running the kiddie trials now too.

That is true I was just referring to new "everyone" trials.

Speaking of the kid trials though there are some interesting developments there. The UK has come out against vaccinating kids under 18 this week, without special circumstances, because they are finding the side effects from the vaccine outweigh the damage caused by COVID in that age group. Germany might be going the same way as the UK soon apparently but both will continue to evaluate the data. Also I have heard some grumbling that the vaccine side effects even more significantly outweigh the risks from COVID in the under 12 group in the trial.

It is entirely possible we do not get a under 12 kids vaccine at this point due to risk/reward not panning out. We may still get one to help line Pfizers pockets but that is pretty much just a US thing. Either way I hope that it pans out and is successful in case we do suddenly have to have it because of a new variant that harms kids more than what we have today.

 

[Zorba]

That is true I was just referring to new "everyone" trials.

Speaking of the kid trials though there are some interesting developments there. The UK has come out against vaccinating kids under 18 this week, without special circumstances, because they are finding the side effects from the vaccine outweigh the damage caused by COVID in that age group. Germany might be going the same way as the UK soon apparently but both will continue to evaluate the data. Also I have heard some grumbling that the vaccine side effects even more significantly outweigh the risks from COVID in the under 12 group in the trial.

It is entirely possible we do not get a under 12 kids vaccine at this point due to risk/reward not panning out. We may still get one to help line Pfizers pockets but that is pretty much just a US thing. Either way I hope that it pans out and is successful in case we do suddenly have to have it because of a new variant that harms kids more than what we have today.

I'd bet a lot of money that the US will get a kiddie vaccine recommend and it has nothing to do with lining pockets.

We also require Chicken Pox vaccine, which I believe many EU countries don't.

I personally know of multiple kids that were sick for more than a month and still have long term effects, plus over 350 kids have died in the US. No way the risks of vaccination is higher than the disease, but I've learned medical ethics people will always pick the passive option on the trolley problem.

 

[K1052]

That is true I was just referring to new "everyone" trials.

Speaking of the kid trials though there are some interesting developments there. The UK has come out against vaccinating kids under 18 this week, without special circumstances, because they are finding the side effects from the vaccine outweigh the damage caused by COVID in that age group. Germany might be going the same way as the UK soon apparently but both will continue to evaluate the data. Also I have heard some grumbling that the vaccine side effects even more significantly outweigh the risks from COVID in the under 12 group in the trial.

It is entirely possible we do not get a under 12 kids vaccine at this point due to risk/reward not panning out. We may still get one to help line Pfizers pockets but that is pretty much just a US thing. Either way I hope that it pans out and is successful in case we do suddenly have to have it because of a new variant that harms kids more than what we have today.

The UK has on occasion throughout this crisis made some er interesting choices that are not always backed up by data. I'd want to see hard data on increased adverse effects in the pediatric trials which are using a reduced dose before forming an opinion.

 

[Brainonska511]

If I had gotten J&J I'd probably try to get one. It won't hurt and peace of mind is worth a lot.

I got the J&J shot, but I'm not particularly worried about it all. There is a lot of misinterpretation of the original clinical trial data for all the vaccines out there, and the real world data and small follow-up studies that trickle out in newspapers is somewhat problematic - small populations, no true comparator arms, in vitro data of dubious linkage with clinically meaningful things, antibody titers with limited applicability to long term immunity (ie, the cells that make antibodies don't just die, even if antibody levels drop off with time)...

For me, I'm likely going to wait on any booster until they have some better quality data (ie, clinical trial) or it becomes broadly recommended by leading health groups.

 

[Muse]

It is entirely possible we do not get a under 12 kids vaccine at this point due to risk/reward not panning out. We may still get one to help line Pfizers pockets but that is pretty much just a US thing. Either way I hope that it pans out and is successful in case we do suddenly have to have it because of a new variant that harms kids more than what we have today.

Unvaxxed kids will be vectors, that's a big reason to get them vaxxed.

 

[K1052]

I got the J&J shot, but I'm not particularly worried about it all. There is a lot of misinterpretation of the original clinical trial data for all the vaccines out there, and the real world data and small follow-up studies that trickle out in newspapers is somewhat problematic - small populations, no true comparator arms, in vitro data of dubious linkage with clinically meaningful things, antibody titers with limited applicability to long term immunity (ie, the cells that make antibodies don't just die, even if antibody levels drop off with time)...

For me, I'm likely going to wait on any booster until they have some better quality data (ie, clinical trial) or it becomes broadly recommended by leading health groups.

I think NIH is doing mixing trials now. Though Oxford released this recently which shows some likely merit to following an adenovirus prime shot with mRNA in terms of better neutralizing antibody levels and T cell counts compared to the conventional regimen.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-2...generate-robust-immune-response-against-covid

Granted everybody is kind of taking a stab about what metrics constitute what levels of protection from a clinical perspective.

 

[local]

I'd bet a lot of money that the US will get a kiddie vaccine recommend and it has nothing to do with lining pockets.

We also require Chicken Pox vaccine, which I believe many EU countries don't.

I personally know of multiple kids that were sick for more than a month and still have long term effects, plus over 350 kids have died in the US. No way the risks of vaccination is higher than the disease, but I've learned medical ethics people will always pick the passive option on the trolley problem.

The UK has on occasion throughout this crisis made some er interesting choices that are not always backed up by data. I'd want to see hard data on increased adverse effects in the pediatric trials which are using a reduced dose before forming an opinion.

Agreed

Unvaxxed kids will be vectors, that's a big reason to get them vaxxed.

Supposedly we are all vectors including us vaxxed, I don't look to the vaccines as a way to limit spread that is just a nice benefit.