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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,304
11,762
136
I still check worldometers regularly. I am concerned that at some point places like California could see an uptick just like the UK has (which is not looking good right now), but until that starts happening I'm enjoying normalcy. If this thing keeps mutating which it will... at some point efficacy of the current mRNA vaccines will drop enough to warrant restrictions going back into place until everyone gets their boosters. And since I'm not could mentally handle another lockdown without getting this "summer break".
Even in places with a lot of Delta basically everybody in the hospital due to COVID is unvaccinated. Hospitalizations and deaths are likely to rise in communities that have resisted vaccination not in the places that have embraced it as a priority.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
19,206
2,750
126
Just got back from Mets vs Brewers @ Citi Field in NYC with my daughter.

Very few masks in sight inside or outside and while I wore mine while in the stores and stuff I went without in outdoor areas. (Note I didn't get so much as a cross-eyed look under either circumstance... I <3 NY)

Had a really good time and the Mets won too... last game we saw was almost exactly two years ago and I CLEARLY recall missing the 7th inning stretch with my daughter that night and thinking no big deal they'll be another game soon.

When she was little we always made a big deal out of singing "take me out to the ball game" at Mets games during the 7th inning stretch ... it might seem silly but I choked up a bit tonight. (fortunately she didn't notice! ;) )
 

allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
23,941
2,171
136
Sadly, 17% of the U S new cases are in Florida. In our county, the number of cases is up 130% this past week over the week before (161 vs 70). The good news is that our hospitalizations and deaths have not been rising so I guess the cases are not as severe. According to the newspaper many of the new cases here are outbreaks of children at summer camps.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,778
4,750
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Sadly, 17% of the U S new cases are in Florida. In our county, the number of cases is up 130% this past week over the week before (161 vs 70). The good news is that our hospitalizations and deaths have not been rising so I guess the cases are not as severe. According to the newspaper many of the new cases here are outbreaks of children at summer camps.
Well now were at a point where we need more granular data to know how many of these are cases where the person already had the vaccine vs. didn't have it yet.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,304
11,762
136
Well now were at a point where we need more granular data to know how many of these are cases where the person already had the vaccine vs. didn't have it yet.
Positivity overall is now less important of a metric than hospitalizations per capita. The UK has got a lot of positivity because they are asymptomatic testing but no commensurate rise in hospitalizations because of their vaccine program.

The US, OTOH, is starting to see hospitalization rates rise again in places with low vaccine penetration as Delta becomes prevalent.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,180
2,454
126
Feb 4, 2009
31,157
11,592
136
Well now were at a point where we need more granular data to know how many of these are cases where the person already had the vaccine vs. didn't have it yet.
I think that already exists and it is something like 1 in 8 infections have had a vaccination and 1 in 20 hospitalized had a vaccination.
Going from memory so figure could be off but the takeaway way vaccinated die and get hospitalized at a far lesser amount, which is what the 90-something percent effectiveness thing is.
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,087
597
126
Sadly, 17% of the U S new cases are in Florida. In our county, the number of cases is up 130% this past week over the week before (161 vs 70). The good news is that our hospitalizations and deaths have not been rising so I guess the cases are not as severe. According to the newspaper many of the new cases here are outbreaks of children at summer camps.
Sadly this is a preview of things to come for areas with low vaccination rates.

I think that already exists and it is something like 1 in 8 infections have had a vaccination and 1 in 20 hospitalized had a vaccination.
Going from memory so figure could be off but the takeaway way vaccinated die and get hospitalized at a far lesser amount, which is what the 90-something percent effectiveness thing is.
To support what K1052 and you are saying, approx. 99% of all recent Covid-19 deaths are with unvaccinated people, according to CDC data.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
Things are not going well in several countries in Asia regarding the virus.

S. Korea has highest ever daily rise.

Japan could get the Olympics with zero fan. Not one, nada, zip in the stands.

Vietnam has its largest city under 15 days lock down.

Indonesia expands nationwide curbs.

Malaysia and Thailand are still struggling to fight the virus.

Not good at all.
 
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allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
23,941
2,171
136
Well now were at a point where we need more granular data to know how many of these are cases where the person already had the vaccine vs. didn't have it yet.
I haven't seen stats for all states, but the governor of MD says last month "unvaccinated people made up 95% of new Covid-19 cases in the state and 93% of new Covid-19 hospitalizations."

"The connection between vaccination status and Covid-19 is not specific to Maryland and is not limited to last month, medical experts have said.
Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine, said Maryland's data is a trend that will be seen in states across the country."

We'll see what other states report.

 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,304
11,762
136
We know how this is going to turn out for states/counties with low vaccination rates, don't even have to guess. Rising hospitalizations and then rising deaths.
 
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Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
Much cussing was likely involved....All that money spent....but no one in the stands.
From what I read, over $20 billion USD (and counting) already spent on the game so they (IOC, Japanese government, etc.) are trying to salvage the money by having it on TV/streaming. Better get some money back or none at all by cancel the whole thing.

And after this mess, look like less and less countries would want to host the game.

Over Budget and Fraught with Problems, Tokyo Games Spark Calls for Olympic Reforms | Voice of America - English (voanews.com)

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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,566
8,960
126
www.uovalor.com
Well, it is official. The Olympics game in Tokyo (in two weeks) will have no spectators in the stands. The first time ever with zero fans in attendance.

Olympics bans spectators after Tokyo declares COVID-19 emergency | Reuters

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Pretty crazy, but honestly I think that's the safest way to go. I figured they were going to just have reduced capacity but that's still a risk. Huge hit on revenu. Does the hosting country also get a cut normally? I almost feel Tokyo should get to rehost again at some point sooner rather than later just to make up for the bad circumstances. But I imagine they typically have countries lined up well ahead of time.

This got me thinking, some kind of virtual spectator camera setup would be pretty cool. You have a bunch of high end PTZ cameras throughout and you can buy a ticket to essentially get to control it for the entire event. I could see families and friends wanting to all pitch in to gather around something like that, would be an interesting experience, maybe not as cool as being there though.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
9,939
2,285
136
Pretty crazy, but honestly I think that's the safest way to go. I figured they were going to just have reduced capacity but that's still a risk. Huge hit on revenu. Does the hosting country also get a cut normally? I almost feel Tokyo should get to rehost again at some point sooner rather than later just to make up for the bad circumstances. But I imagine they typically have countries lined up well ahead of time.
The 2024 Summer Olympics will be in Paris and 2028 in Los Angeles. The other cities that had bid on the 2024 games all pulled out for various reasons. The IOC freaked out and decided to decided to just give one to Paris and the other to LA and they just negotiated on who went first.

Edit: The 2022 Winter Olympics are in Beijing which is in February. China will presumably do what China does to ensure the games are normal as possible. Or will they deploy Covid-22? :D
 
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manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,087
597
126
Much cussing was likely involved....All that money spent....but no one in the stands.
Most of the revenue generated from the games are global TV rights. Spectators can affect the atmosphere for the host country, but it isn't a show-stopper to keep them away.

Also, Tokyo has agreed to host the games for the IOC. But the city itself has little say now as far as canceling the whole thing. It's pretty much the IOC's call, unless Covid-19 reached "DEFCON 1" status within two weeks.

Pretty crazy, but honestly I think that's the safest way to go. I figured they were going to just have reduced capacity but that's still a risk. Huge hit on revenu. Does the hosting country also get a cut normally? I almost feel Tokyo should get to rehost again at some point sooner rather than later just to make up for the bad circumstances. But I imagine they typically have countries lined up well ahead of time.
It's getting to the point where hosting the Olympics is virtually guaranteed to be a huge money pit, and few countries even want to do it. Besides China which loves to try and burnish its international reputation, you're getting close to the point where there won't even be a multi-city bidding process for future games. The list of willing cities is becoming extremely short.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,566
8,960
126
www.uovalor.com
Edit: The 2022 Winter Olympics are in Beijing which is in February. China will presumably do what China does to ensure the games are normal as possible. Or will they deploy Covid-22? :D
Maybe they can relase multiple viruses at the same time created by different teams. Synchronized free style pandemic! The one with the most deaths gets the gold medal in that sport.

Then you have another event, synchronized vaccination. One to come up with a vaccine first wins.
 

Artorias

Golden Member
Feb 8, 2014
1,528
699
136
Most of the revenue generated from the games are global TV rights. Spectators can affect the atmosphere for the host country, but it isn't a show-stopper to keep them away.

Also, Tokyo has agreed to host the games for the IOC. But the city itself has little say now as far as canceling the whole thing. It's pretty much the IOC's call, unless Covid-19 reached "DEFCON 1" status within two weeks.


It's getting to the point where hosting the Olympics is virtually guaranteed to be a huge money pit, and few countries even want to do it. Besides China which loves to try and burnish its international reputation, you're getting close to the point where there won't even be a multi-city bidding process for future games. The list of willing cities is becoming extremely short.
No fans is absolutely going to suck. The track and field events are going to be significantly diminished without an atmosphere, I feel for the athletes on this one.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,134
3,968
126
It occurs to me now that the recent news concerning Pfizer applying for approval of a covid-19 booster shot and the FDA and CDC declaring that at this time they don't think a booster is necessary has a subtext, that being that these federal agencies do not want to contribute to the doubts of the unvaccinated. Vaccination rates are crucial in controlling the pandemic in the USA. If a booster is approved (e.g. in Israel, it's been approved for people with compromised immune systems, etc.) what will an unvaccinated American be thinking: "Shit, I have to get 3 shots now???" They don't want that, so they are saying 2 shots is adequate to protect you even from Delta variants.

The minute I can get a booster, I will!
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,762
3,710
136
Positivity overall is now less important of a metric than hospitalizations per capita. The UK has got a lot of positivity because they are asymptomatic testing but no commensurate rise in hospitalizations because of their vaccine program.

The US, OTOH, is starting to see hospitalization rates rise again in places with low vaccine penetration as Delta becomes prevalent.

I wonder if that is a complete 'break' between infection rates and hospitalization rates or if it's just an increasing time-lag?

And won't a high infection rate, in a population like the UK's that is about half fully-vaccinated and half not, create a pressure for the virus to evolve to evade the vaccine-protection?

Indonesia has now been hit hard by the Delta variant. I could tell that just from the shape of their graphs, before googling the question. It really is dramatically more infectious.

Netherlands next, it seems.
 

pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,762
3,710
136
This got me thinking, some kind of virtual spectator camera setup would be pretty cool. You have a bunch of high end PTZ cameras throughout and you can buy a ticket to essentially get to control it for the entire event. I could see families and friends wanting to all pitch in to gather around something like that, would be an interesting experience, maybe not as cool as being there though.
Virtual competitors! Everyone runs alone on their own track, but while wearing VR headsets to simulate being on the same track together.
 

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