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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,456
4,065
126
Indiana reported a backlog of 1,500 so the real count for 2/4 is about 3600. The new infections curve is bending down and deaths will soon dip as well. However, it's much too early to celebrate as many experts are cautioning that the new strains can/will cause a 3rd wave in March/April.

Look at UK/Spain/Portugal/France for a preview of what a third wave can bring.
We really need to meme out the mask/SD ideas. We can only do so much in terms of ramping up vaccine production. Only a handful of companies are capable of manufacturing mRNA vaccines (i.e. Pfizer & Moderna). Most of the pharma giants are incapable of a crucial step. This is a great read that explains why it's not possible to increase levels of the mRNA vaccines to levels that we'd like any time soon (other vaccine types are another matter), followed by myriad comments by in-the-main people deep in pharma:

 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
24,238
1,865
126
Meanwhile, in Florida:


Hell yeah, brother... Cleetus McFarland is sharing COVID at the Freedom Factory! :rolleyes:
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
10,111
2,367
136
Only a handful of companies are capable of manufacturing mRNA vaccines (i.e. Pfizer & Moderna). Most of the pharma giants are incapable of a crucial step. This is a great read that explains why it's not possible to increase levels of the mRNA vaccines to levels that we'd like any time soon (other vaccine types are another matter), followed by myriad comments by in-the-main people deep in pharma:
But we don't need to. There's only so much of the population that is going to take it and you are basically guaranteed now to have at least J&J in the mix.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,456
4,065
126
But we don't need to. There's only so much of the population that is going to take it and you are basically guaranteed now to have at least J&J in the mix.
Experts are saying we want 75%+ of the populace vaccinated or we won't have herd immunity. That requires a lot of vaccine and an overwhelming public commitment to get stuck. And meantime, people will need to keep masked up and socially distanced.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
10,111
2,367
136
Experts are saying we want 75%+ of the populace vaccinated or we won't have herd immunity. That requires a lot of vaccine and an overwhelming public commitment to get stuck. And meantime, people will need to keep masked up and socially distanced.
That's unlikely to happen. What's more likely to happen is most states will go back to normal soon after the vaccine is generally available to genpop. People catch it, they catch it.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
3,364
1,916
136
Just got a call from my mom that she tested positive for Covid, and it sounds like my Dad is coming down with the symptoms as well. Both are in their late 60's, not in terrible or great health, and my Dad was on the waitlist at his work to get the jab.

Both describe feeling more run down than they have ever felt before, basically eat/drink/sleep/repeat.

Keeping my finger's crossed, I'd rather have parent's who do the whole "It wasn't THAT bad" thing over no parents. Can't do anything about it now other then check in on the daily, but there is that, so not getting super wrapped up about it.

Prior to this current surge, the virus was always somewhere else affecting someone else, but its slowly crept in closer and closer as more people I know get it. Kinda wild, like meeting a celebrity.
- Just wanted to update this post.

My mom is fine, and nearly fully recovered. She was a school teacher, and was quite active until recently. Her bout with Corona Virus landed solidly into "the worse Flu you've ever had" territory, but she has made a near full recovery.

My dad was admitted to the hospital on 1/30. I had bought my mom an oxygen sensor and my Dad's O2 Saturation had dropped to 80% while awake. She called the Paramedics, who after some discussion decided to take my Dad to the hospital, rather than the ER.

Today we just got the call that the doctor felt that while he was far from 100%, he had done all the recovering that he could do in a hospital after a week long round of Remdesivir. O2 tank shipped to my Parent's house, and my Dad will basically need 24/7 O2 assistance for a minimum of 1 month.

Talking to my dad while he was at home just before he want to the hospital (80% O2 level) was like talking to a 90 year old Alzheimer's patient with emphysema. It was like he had just run a marathon with dementia. He was making no sense, couldn't string together more than a handful of nonsensical unrelated thoughts together between gasps of breath. I asked him a question he should have a strong opinion on "Dad, what are your thoughts about the 1/6 Capitol riots". I am convinced that there are no 60yo+ men who do not have a vast overestimation of the importance of their opinion on things, and expected a deluge of bile and disappointment from my dad. Instead I got "I think... ... ... top guy... .. ... .. implicated" / "Who, what top guy dad? Trump?" / "Trump?... ... ... Who... ... ... No... ... ... what?... ... ..." / "Ok time to go to the hospital old man".

I was pretty sure he was going to die there. The he sounded like a train wreck, literally, hacking and wheezing. I've been bracing myself and making plans for what to do if he kicks off, it was bad.

Today was definitely a shot of "good" news. He's not out of the woods by a long shot, and its very possible that things turn around on him fast and he lands himself right back in the hospital again. But I'll take the win, regardless of how temporary it might be.

Hug the people you love folks. Call em if you can't. Think of that person that you haven't spoken to in a while, not because you don't want to, but you're just busy. Connect with them. Enjoy every day you have with the people that you have.

These last 2 weeks have been hell, and we're not even done yet.
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,172
652
126
That's unlikely to happen. What's more likely to happen is most states will go back to normal soon after the vaccine is generally available to genpop. People catch it, they catch it.
Why wait? I think many states will just reopen again like it's summer 2020, if they haven't done so already.
 

H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
400
239
86
Indiana reported a backlog of 1,500 so the real count for 2/4 is about 3600. The new infections curve is bending down and deaths will soon dip as well. However, it's much too early to celebrate as many experts are cautioning that the new strains can/will cause a 3rd wave in March/April.

Look at UK/Spain/Portugal/France for a preview of what a third wave can bring.

We had a few days with around 16K new daily cases and crossed 300 fatalities in a day twice (both times 303 deaths). Since USA has roughly 32 times Portugal's population, that's the equivalent of 512K new daily cases and 9696 fatalities in a day.

The UK variant if the predominant variant now in Portugal but a few cases of the South African variant have also been detected.

Portugal has been hit VERY HARD by this 3rd wave.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,456
4,065
126
That's unlikely to happen. What's more likely to happen is most states will go back to normal soon after the vaccine is generally available to genpop. People catch it, they catch it.
I figure that depends on available ICU beds. If that gets challenged, they'll have to restrict... no indoor dining (or limited), close bars, salons, restrict capacity. The wild card is the new strains. A mutation happens every ~2 weeks.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,220
4,245
136
Interesting how step 5 (fill/finish) seems to be tripping up both companies too now with Moderna asking to squeeze more doses in vials and Pfizer partnering up for help. Would seem to indicate they can actually make more vaccine than they can readily prepare for shipment. Did they scale up their lipid + rna mixing infrastructure but forget what happens after that?
Bill Gates has been saying since march that filling would be a bottle neck and obtaining the vials. This should be something the NDA could've helped with back in March.

I hate this "it's hard, there's nothing we can do mentality." It is the coup out of a certain past admin to excuse their inaction. At the end of the day, if you give enough resources to the people working the problem, they can develop solutions. Of course there aren't tons of ideal mRNA factories out there, but if in March 2020 we had made a serious push to work the process and bottlenecks we could've vastly expanded our capability.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,220
4,245
136
Watched some longish (13-15 minute) videos about "long haulers," "long-covid" sufferers. Makes me want to be even more careful to stay uninfected until I'm immunized by vaccinations.

There's a 60 Minutes Australia segment (didn't know they had one like the USA version), that was excellent, offered on Youtube, on long haulers. There are other long-covid videos, one deals with a NYC clinic that's seen over 1000 CV19 suffers who are experiencing lasting effects. Apparently most of these were 20-40 people, not the older you might expect, and most were never hospitalized. However, even with their relatively mild cases, they didn't get over the infection, it's persisted for months with no end in sight. Likely many of these people will suffer chronically for life. Here's a couple of zoom-type shots that are food for thought that I grabbed with print screen from the 60 Minutes Australia piece.
View attachment 39121View attachment 39122
I wonder if anyone has tried the antibody treatments on a long hauler. I wonder if that would help their system finally clear the virus.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,456
4,065
126
I wonder if anyone has tried the antibody treatments on a long hauler. I wonder if that would help their system finally clear the virus.
I'm sure they've tried anything obvious, for instance that NYC clinic that's dedicated to treating long-covid-19 patients that's seen over 1000 of them. Check the videos.
 
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allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
23,975
2,212
136
- Just wanted to update this post.

My mom is fine, and nearly fully recovered. She was a school teacher, and was quite active until recently. Her bout with Corona Virus landed solidly into "the worse Flu you've ever had" territory, but she has made a near full recovery.

My dad was admitted to the hospital on 1/30. I had bought my mom an oxygen sensor and my Dad's O2 Saturation had dropped to 80% while awake. She called the Paramedics, who after some discussion decided to take my Dad to the hospital, rather than the ER.

Today we just got the call that the doctor felt that while he was far from 100%, he had done all the recovering that he could do in a hospital after a week long round of Remdesivir. O2 tank shipped to my Parent's house, and my Dad will basically need 24/7 O2 assistance for a minimum of 1 month.


Hug the people you love folks. Call em if you can't. Think of that person that you haven't spoken to in a while, not because you don't want to, but you're just busy. Connect with them. Enjoy every day you have with the people that you have.
So glad your mom is okay. So sorry your dad has had a rough time. I'm sure we all wish him a speedy and complete recovery. And, everybody, pay special attention to that last paragraph. Just do it. Yesterday was our daughter's birthday and, although we spoke to her for a long time, I was so sad because I couldn't be with her. 'This too shall pass' has become my mantra.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
46,024
3,125
126
Good video, under 10 minutes long:


It's crazy to browse through this thread, to see it happening in China to seeing it coming early last year to it just being a way of life these days.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,531
12,067
136
The virus has not adapted to the vaccines. There is basically nobody vaccinated in South Africa so no selective pressure from them. It's mutating from explosive spread.

It should not be that difficult to turn the RNA and adenovirus vaccines on the mutations of concern in an expeditious manner to improve efficacy. Boosters in the fall seem probable.
 
Dec 10, 2005
21,293
2,888
126
The virus has not adapted to the vaccines. There is basically nobody vaccinated in South Africa so no selective pressure from them. It's mutating from explosive spread.

It should not be that difficult to turn the RNA and adenovirus vaccines on the mutations of concern in an expeditious manner to improve efficacy. Boosters in the fall seem probable.
It shouldn't be difficult in theory, but you'd still probably need to run a trial and there are substantial manufacturing hurdles for the mRNA vaccines.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
356
126
It shouldn't be difficult in theory, but you'd still probably need to run a trial and there are substantial manufacturing hurdles for the mRNA vaccines.
Didn't FDA just come out and say that the approved Covid-19 mRNA vaccines won't need further trials (or at least extensive trials) to update for new mutations, much like existing seasonal influenza vaccine platforms?
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,531
12,067
136
It shouldn't be difficult in theory, but you'd still probably need to run a trial and there are substantial manufacturing hurdles for the mRNA vaccines.
Some limited trial appears likely yes but certainly not a new phase 3.

Apparently Pfizer is adding lines in the US as well as Europe plus shrinking the production time required. Lonza, Moderna's contractor, is reportedly scaling up further as well. All approaches seem to be on the table from a reboost with the original vaccine, a booster with the mutated spike, and possibly a multivalent vaccine.

 
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H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
400
239
86
Why didn't they set up smaller plants PER country? Or per country WILLING to do so: this should be TERRIBLY EXPENSIVE to set up, so not all could afford it.

The country would provide the building and the equipment per the vaccine maker specs and the company would produce the vaccines locally. Because the number of vaccines required to be produced in such factories would be quite small by comparison to their current factories, they could produce them much faster and, in case of big countries like USA, they could always make multiple factories instead of just one. And they could also do this for EVERY COVID vaccine maker.

By increasing the number of plants manufacturing the vaccine, it could reach the require number for "normalcy" a heck of a lot sooner, no? A total of between 4.9B and 5.6B vaccines are needed for herd immunity (70% to 80% vaccinated) and that's just for 1st dose, so double that for 2nd dose.

By keeping the number of plants manufacturing the vaccine low they are in essence bottlenecking the vaccine deployment thus for all intents and purposes, prolonging this crisis.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,531
12,067
136
Why didn't they set up smaller plants PER country? Or per country WILLING to do so: this should be TERRIBLY EXPENSIVE to set up, so not all could afford it.

The country would provide the building and the equipment per the vaccine maker specs and the company would produce the vaccines locally. Because the number of vaccines required to be produced in such factories would be quite small by comparison to their current factories, they could produce them much faster and, in case of big countries like USA, they could always make multiple factories instead of just one. And they could also do this for EVERY COVID vaccine maker.

By increasing the number of plants manufacturing the vaccine, it could reach the require number for "normalcy" a heck of a lot sooner, no? A total of between 4.9B and 5.6B vaccines are needed for herd immunity (70% to 80% vaccinated) and that's just for 1st dose, so double that for 2nd dose.

By keeping the number of plants manufacturing the vaccine low they are in essence bottlenecking the vaccine deployment thus for all intents and purposes, prolonging this crisis.
Amongst the many many problems with this, especially for RNA vaccines, no company wants some 3rd party it doesn't really know fucking up and hurting people or their rep. Adenovirus based vaccines can be made in more places but there are still limits to the materials, infrastructure, and expertise available. It is far easier to make a shitload of vaccine at a few plants very efficiently and ship it out everywhere instead of reinventing the wheel.
 

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