• Guest, The rules for the P & N subforum have been updated to prohibit "ad hominem" or personal attacks against other posters. See the full details in the post "Politics and News Rules & Guidelines."

NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

Page 530 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
8,608
3,378
136
Government wants to not hold on to 2nd doses now and adjust eligibility to 65+ and anyone over 16 with conditions. CDC expected to announce today.

Bourla was on CNBC and upped Pfizer's production to 2B doses for 2021. Says production expansion proceeding over previous expectations and material supplies are in line.
This is okay if managed correctly. Deviating from the FDA requirements of 2nd doses at 21/28 days for mRNA vaccines is too much of a gamble. On the plus side, with Pfizer running ahead of schedule in it's production ramp - there is more hope that this can be accomplished. I'm not sure how this will affect me, just read in Sunday's local paper that 1b folks will be vaccinated in February-March. I'll get a call from my provider's hospital network with scheduling and location info. And the NH national guard are the ones doing the actual injections, as well as directing traffic and crowd control.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,579
10,550
136
This is okay if managed correctly. Deviating from the FDA requirements of 2nd doses at 21/28 days for mRNA vaccines is too much of a gamble. On the plus side, with Pfizer running ahead of schedule in it's production ramp - there is more hope that this can be accomplished. I'm not sure how this will affect me, just read in Sunday's local paper that 1b folks will be vaccinated in February-March. I'll get a call from my provider's hospital network with scheduling and location info. And the NH national guard are the ones doing the actual injections, as well as directing traffic and crowd control.
If supply is keeping pace then minus a small amount held in reserve for contingencies (damaged doses, shipped to wrong location, etc) seems like the right thing to do. Vaccinating more people sooner especially in light of the more contagious strains that are starting to emerge is increasingly important I think.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CZroe

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,187
845
126
Although this is by all indications a "well-informed" estimate, it's also the only basis for your strong assertions that roughly half of Americans have already been infected by SARS-CoV-2. How can you suggest the accuracy of the ratio doesn't matter?
I'm not. I'm suggesting that it's in the ballpark especially given the impact on visibility caused by recent testing concerns, seasonality, new variants, and the holidays.

7.2 is very different from 4x (which is basically what Dr. Gottlieb asserted in his recent interview).
...and yet many other doctors keep using the shorthand of 10x confirmed cases for their rough estimates. Reality is likely somewhere in between these extreme examples, which is where we find the CDC's estimate.

Zorba stated that in his state of OK, the ratio found in antibodies testing has consistently hovered around 2x for some time.
That sounds about right in line with what I would expect if antibodies really can fall to undetectable levels in a matter of months.

As of late November, about 1 in 3 Stockholmers had antibodies and they literally had no formal controls until late fall? I'm guessing they're still under 50% by now.
It was probably pretty close to 1 in 3 in the USA by the end of November too, though not nearly all of them would have detectable antibodies.

The USA had 14 million confirmed cases on November 30th. That's close to 101 million Americans by the CDC's estimate. With a population of 328 million we may as well just call that a third.

Again, if 1M Stockholmers haven't "achieved" herd immunity, I find it extremely hard to believe America's 330M are getting somewhat close without acceleration of vaccinations. If the 7.2x multiple also applies to L.A. County, then about 65% of my county's residents have already been infected! In theory, the daily confirmed cases should be plummeting soon?
Yes and yes. That's precisely what I'm saying. Obviously, much of the population in LA County is in a particularly dense urban center so they would skew higher. The rural places are where it's more likely to be below the CDC's estimate.

Wish we had the promised 20 million vaccinated by the end of December instead of barely 4 million since that obviously means we have a lot more active cases out there than we would if we reached 50% the right way. This means a larger portion of the remaining 50% will contract it than they otherwise would but it will be slowing down regardless. If half the population has immunity then there are obviously half as many people an infected person could infect, driving the r0 down accordingly.

It's ironic that you're now saying testing is diminished, when you said over 6 months ago that American testing capacity is world-leading and IIRC you proudly stated in May? that if a person needs a test in Georgia, it's available. There was a natural holidays drop-off but the 7 day MA has been about 1.6M daily tests for a couple months now:
Nothing ironic at all. I never said the spread of the virus couldn't jump to overwhelm testing capacity. I never said that converting testing sites to vaccination sites would have no impact on testing capacity. I never said things would stay as good as they were forever. All I was saying was that the people who were still acting like testing in the US was still sub-par had not re-evaluated after the rocky start with bad tests was behind us and that the US testing capacity was doing as well as could be expected of a large, developed nation with 330 million people. Indeed, the USA had excess testing capacity at the time so increasing the daily test numbers wasn't even a matter of increasing capacity. It was a matter of increasing demand, which the rapid spread of the virus has obviously done.

Look all I'm saying is "we don't know what we don't know." I'd want more than one CDC estimate to conclude half of Americans have likely already contracted the virus, and dismiss a multitude of serological surveys that have been reported on. Note one thing I pointed out a month ago about that CDC page is they model asymptomatic cases at 15%, much lower than most other estimates. If we adjust asymptomatic cases to 1 in 3, does that boost the estimated ratio of total to confirmed cases even higher? To 9x or 10x?
Pre-symptomatic spread is almost as bad as asymptomatic spread. An asymptomatic individual who gets on a plane and spreads it was asymptomic at the time even if they develop symptoms later, but they would not be counted as an asymptomatic case since they did eventually show symptoms. The CDC is likely excluding these people from their estimate of truly asymptomatic infections.

Asymptomatic spread != Asymptomatic case

I don't believe we are missing anywhere near the number of cases as we were even six months ago.
...not even with the traveling, gathering, and lack of testing that happened over the holidays? Not even with timely free public testing becoming suddenly unavailable to people with known exposure?

That huge supposedly undetected number is just another tool people are using to claim herd immunity is near and this thing is almost over without more lockdowns or vaccines.
No. I've been trying to shine a light on actual cases>confirmed cases all along so people know how series this is. COVID is everywhere. Stay safe. Don't travel for Thanksgiving. Don't travel for Christmas.

It also gives certain hysterical people a dose of reality. Anyone still talking about extreme measures into 2022 even with the vaccines needs to hear it.

It was probably true in April but now not so much.
The CDC estimate was for the entire period including September and was updated on December 23rd. Why would they even bother if the estimate was that out of date?
 
Last edited:

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
59,670
8,593
126
www.uovalor.com
So Ontario basically issued a stay at home order. Though, it's technically the same as what it's been the whole time, I think it's just that they'll be more strict about it now. But they did stress that you're still allowed to go for walks and stuff so it's not like a curfew but basically they just don't want people gathering, is the jist of it. More restrictions for small businesses as well, they have to be closed by a certain time. 8pm I think. Big box stores don't really change, though they will be enforcing the rules more on them, like limiting people inside. None of them have really been doing that. I still say they need to close all the big box stores and grocery stores too, and only do curbside pickup or delivery. It's just not fair for small businesses to be forced to close completely when these big stores can open. At least let everything stay open, but only curbside or delivery. Same with restaurants, small ones should be allowed to do delivery or take-out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captante

Spacehead

Lifer
Jun 2, 2002
11,098
4,475
136

This is just sad to me especially since my wife's grandmother just died after testing positive for COVID-19 in a care facility. She was 96 and as lovely a lady as you will ever meet. It's possible it was unrelated to COVID as she never showed respiratory distress but she was in good health for her age and the timing is pretty coincidental.
One of the guys at work was just telling me today that one of his relatives was going to be getting the vaccine soon, a nurse or healthcare worker of some sort. He told me that relative didn't want to get it because of "all the side effects". They were apparently told it's just a matter of when you want to schedule it.. you will be getting it!

:mad:
Idiots, if they don't want it let my parents go get it!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zorba and Captante

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,915
1,362
126
Brazil reports the vaccine from china is only about 50% effective.


Japan is expanding restrictions to other areas because new cases are popping up in numerous cities/towns.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
59,670
8,593
126
www.uovalor.com
Brazil reports the vaccine from china is only about 50% effective.


Japan is expanding restrictions to other areas because new cases are popping up in numerous cities/towns.
I'm so glad we did not end up having that one in Canada. It came close as Trudeau was really pushing for it but then the deal fell through.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
32,864
11,611
146
Well, that's nice, but for those pushing the single dose method of delivery for the double dose vaccine....the single dose was only 50% effective IIRC. And, I also recall reading that 50% effective is considered a-ok by our current measurements. So, while I'm not a big fan of china, or a fan at all, I'm not really seeing the problem there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captante and CZroe

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,187
845
126
Well, that's nice, but for those pushing the single dose method of delivery for the double dose vaccine....the single dose was only 50% effective IIRC. And, I also recall reading that 50% effective is considered a-ok by our current measurements. So, while I'm not a big fan of china, or a fan at all, I'm not really seeing the problem there.
My thoughts almost exactly but I think it was closer to 60% with one dose.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
45,411
2,722
126
So Moderna is saying you get a full year of immunity. For comparison, based on what the doctors currently say, if you get the virus & survive, you only get 90 days of immunity:


Plus Vaxess is working on a 2-in-1 COVID/Flu vaccine shot:


That way you only have to get a single shot with one microchip in it! :p
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
45,411
2,722
126
Horrible numbers. Coming up on 400k deaths in America:


Almost 2 million deaths worldwide:

 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,187
845
126
Companies are going to be conservative on their durability estimates until there is data. One year is a very safe bet.

If natural immunity was only about 90 days we'd have a shit ton of reinfections and we do not.
Exactly. They can tell that detectable antibodies drop significantly in a matter of months but that is not the only way your body recognizes the virus to be effectively immune. All signs are that immunity will last decades even if antibodies drop to undetectable levels since people who had SARS 17 years ago still have their immunity.
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
8,833
434
126

This estimate seems plausible, L.A. County is probably the most infected of all populous U.S. counties.
Like I said previously, the referenced CDC total infections estimate implies 2 of 3 L.A. County residents have already contracted SARS-CoV-2. IF true, you'd expect new confirmed case numbers to rapidly plummet within several weeks at the most.
 

Ichinisan

Lifer
Oct 9, 2002
28,298
1,228
136
So Moderna is saying you get a full year of immunity. For comparison, based on what the doctors currently say, if you get the virus & survive, you only get 90 days of immunity:


Plus Vaxess is working on a 2-in-1 COVID/Flu vaccine shot:


That way you only have to get a single shot with one microchip in it! :p
Maybe I can get two or more microchips in a single shot. Efficiency + redundancy!
 
  • Haha
Reactions: ch33zw1z

local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,791
451
136
I drove over 400 miles going to 5 different counties, meandered through 6 different facilities and met with 16 people today including lunch inside. This is not an abnormal day. I'm starting to think I am one of the lucky people. (At least that is what I tell myself)

I'm really hoping TX derps and releases the vaccine to all people soon so I can get unblinded officially and get my vaccine. April is the official date for me but honestly it is getting a bit nerve racking.

In other news one of the people I met with had just received his 1st dose of the Pfizer vaccine, we had a bit of a high five moment when I told him I was in the trial. The antimaskers with us were not amused.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captante

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,579
10,550
136
Incoming admin is starting to talk about the potential for the government to fund its own vaccine production capacity (presumably mRNA) to be kept at the ready. Since the platform has proved out paying for a facility, presumably operated by a major contractor with experience, that could produce vast amounts of vaccine quickly is probably a good idea. It would be a strategic asset.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zorba

local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,791
451
136
Incoming admin is starting to talk about the potential for the government to fund its own vaccine production capacity (presumably mRNA) to be kept at the ready. Since the platform has proved out paying for a facility, presumably operated by a major contractor with experience, that could produce vast amounts of vaccine quickly is probably a good idea. It would be a strategic asset.
Sounds like a good idea until someone looking to score some points uses it as an example of unnecessary waste and cuts if from the budget to much applause. If only they could somehow sell it as a military production factory though...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zorba

allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
23,753
1,839
136
Companies are going to be conservative on their durability estimates until there is data. One year is a very safe bet.
Let's hope for more than 1 yr. Time will tell.

The Johnson and Johnson vaccine in the pipeline is a one shot that currently shows more antibodies produced than 2 shot ones and requires nothing more than regular refrigeration. Sounds promising.

 
  • Like
Reactions: Captante

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,579
10,550
136
Sounds like a good idea until someone looking to score some points uses it as an example of unnecessary waste and cuts if from the budget to much applause. If only they could somehow sell it as a military production factory though...
Hide it in defense spending and put it in a state with two R senators lol.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY