Although this is by all indications a "well-informed" estimate, it's also the only basis for your strong assertions that roughly half of Americans have already been infected by SARS-CoV-2. How can you suggest the accuracy of the ratio doesn't matter?
I'm not. I'm suggesting that it's in the ballpark especially given the impact on visibility caused by recent testing concerns, seasonality, new variants, and the holidays.
7.2 is very different from 4x (which is basically what Dr. Gottlieb asserted in his recent interview).
...and yet many other doctors keep using the shorthand of 10x confirmed cases for their rough estimates. Reality is likely somewhere in between these extreme examples, which is where we find the CDC's estimate.
Zorba stated that in his state of OK, the ratio found in antibodies testing has consistently hovered around 2x for some time.
That sounds about right in line with what I would expect if antibodies really can fall to undetectable levels in a matter of months.
As of late November, about 1 in 3 Stockholmers had antibodies and they literally had no formal controls until late fall? I'm guessing they're still under 50% by now.
One out of three Stockholmers has antibodies—but exposure isn't helping one of Europe's hardest hit countries.
fortune.com
It was probably pretty close to 1 in 3 in the USA by the end of November too, though not nearly all of them would have detectable antibodies.
The USA had 14 million confirmed cases on November 30th. That's close to 101 million Americans by the CDC's estimate. With a population of 328 million we may as well just call that a third.
Again, if 1M Stockholmers haven't "achieved" herd immunity, I find it extremely hard to believe America's 330M are getting somewhat close without acceleration of vaccinations. If the 7.2x multiple also applies to L.A. County, then about 65% of my county's residents have already been infected! In theory, the daily confirmed cases should be plummeting soon?
Yes and yes. That's precisely what I'm saying. Obviously, much of the population in LA County is in a particularly dense urban center so they would skew higher. The rural places are where it's more likely to be below the CDC's estimate.
Wish we had the promised 20 million vaccinated by the end of December instead of barely 4 million since that obviously means we have a lot more active cases out there than we would if we reached 50% the right way. This means a larger portion of the remaining 50% will contract it than they otherwise would but it will be slowing down regardless. If half the population has immunity then there are obviously half as many people an infected person could infect, driving the r0 down accordingly.
It's ironic that you're now saying testing is diminished, when you said over 6 months ago that American testing capacity is world-leading and IIRC you proudly stated in May? that if a person needs a test in Georgia, it's available. There was a natural holidays drop-off but the 7 day MA has been about 1.6M daily tests for a couple months now:
The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories.
covidtracking.com
Nothing ironic at all. I never said the spread of the virus couldn't jump to overwhelm testing capacity. I never said that converting testing sites to vaccination sites would have no impact on testing capacity. I never said things would stay as good as they were forever. All I was saying was that the people who were still acting like testing in the US was still sub-par had not re-evaluated after the rocky start with bad tests was behind us and that the US testing capacity was doing as well as could be expected of a large, developed nation with 330 million people. Indeed, the USA had excess testing capacity at the time so increasing the daily test numbers wasn't even a matter of increasing capacity. It was a matter of increasing demand, which the rapid spread of the virus has obviously done.
Look all I'm saying is "we don't know what we don't know." I'd want more than one CDC estimate to conclude half of Americans have likely already contracted the virus, and dismiss a multitude of serological surveys that have been reported on. Note one thing I pointed out a month ago about that CDC page is they model asymptomatic cases at 15%, much lower than most other estimates. If we adjust asymptomatic cases to 1 in 3, does that boost the estimated ratio of total to confirmed cases even higher? To 9x or 10x?
Pre-symptomatic spread is almost as bad as asymptomatic spread. An asymptomatic individual who gets on a plane and spreads it was asymptomic at the time even if they develop symptoms later, but they would not be counted as an asymptomatic case since they did eventually show symptoms. The CDC is likely excluding these people from their estimate of truly asymptomatic infections.
Asymptomatic spread != Asymptomatic case
I don't believe we are missing anywhere near the number of cases as we were even six months ago.
...not even with the traveling, gathering, and lack of testing that happened over the holidays? Not even with timely free public testing becoming suddenly unavailable to people with known exposure?
That huge supposedly undetected number is just another tool people are using to claim herd immunity is near and this thing is almost over without more lockdowns or vaccines.
No. I've been trying to shine a light on actual cases>confirmed cases all along so people know how series this is. COVID is everywhere. Stay safe. Don't travel for Thanksgiving. Don't travel for Christmas.
It also gives certain hysterical people a dose of reality. Anyone still talking about extreme measures into 2022 even with the vaccines needs to hear it.
It was probably true in April but now not so much.
The CDC estimate was for the entire period including September and was updated on December 23rd. Why would they even bother if the estimate was that out of date?