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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
25,737
1,359
126
This happened to some friends of ours who decided to go to Hawaii a few days after xmas. Got tested 3 days before their flight that came back negative, got tested again in Hawaii and their 2 kids came back positive and started showing symptoms. They were stuck in a room quarantining, kids got better after a few days, then the parents started getting sick. I don't think they've seen the beach since they've gotten on the island.

We were supposed to go with them and cancelled.
The good news is flights were dirt cheap, right? I hope they bounce back and recover....well wishes for your friends.

I want to head back to check out Maui and the other side of the Big Island after we went back in March. The best part about our trip was the virus wasn't widespread in the US populations yet and risk was actually much lower than it is now. Because the news frightened everyone so much, most hotels were at 30% capacity. We enjoyed easy dinner reservations and empty pools all week in Waikiki and Waikoloa. I think we've decided we're not even going to try until 2022 or once we are all vaccinated and the perceived risk drops. Since my kids aren't of age to be vaccinated, they will likely be the biggest risk and potentially at the biggest risk. I wouldn't want to expose them to it until we know more about the long term affects.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,262
11,688
136
I don't understand what's wrong with these people and the distribution logistics. If you find you have stock of vaccine left after innoculating the first wave of people, start bringing in the second. Why is this so difficult?

The perfect pair: Cuomo, the huge asshole micromanager, and BdB, the utterly incompetent executive.
Cuomo went so far as to say excess doses could be shipped back to the state instead of administered to the next group locally which is just fucking insane.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
20,778
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Cuomo went so far as to say excess doses could be shipped back to the state instead of administered to the next group locally which is just fucking insane.
For something that has...
1) Need to be kept at extreme cold temperatures (Phizer obviously, moderna still has to be kept cold as well)
2) Has an overall shelf-life expiration date - regardless of how cold it's kept

You would have to be incredibly moronic to try and micro-manage that shit to only give it to certain parties.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,262
11,688
136
For something that has...
1) Need to be kept at extreme cold temperatures (Phizer obviously, moderna still has to be kept cold as well)
2) Has an overall shelf-life expiration date - regardless of how cold it's kept

You would have to be incredibly moronic to try and micro-manage that shit to only give it to certain parties.
Yeah, not a good plan.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,262
11,688
136
Now he says they're going to start "scheduling" 1B. Hopefully that means actuality allowing injections.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
Uh oh, new cases are popping up in china.


New infections are rising fast in Japan, rising concerns about the 2021 Olympic. If things don't get better, it could be another delay or cancel completely.

Australia PM says his country will cut 50% of foreign visitors for now. Brisbane residents are now have to wear masks in public.

London's cases are up too.

Indonesia new cases are over 1,000 daily. First time ever.
.
 
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manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,061
585
126
I also said "if:"


Clearly, we didn't get frontline workers and the most vulnerable vaccinated by then while I was expecting them plus more and the cases we are having now (first week of 2021) are the cases from the end of 2020... namely, the ones I was expecting to bring us closer to immunity. As you know, the count lags the actual infections. The bulk of currently active cases in the official count are infections from the end of 2020. Cue the slowdown from infections peaking at the end of 2020, but the high number of active cases at this peak will definitely make the drop/slowdown less steep than it would have been if we got here more slowly and with more vaccine-acquired immunity.

Despite my poor wording ("significant slowdown by the end of 2020"), the expectation was never that we would see the effect of this immunity while everyone was still sick at the beginning of 2021. Of course we would still be detecting those end of 2020 cases in the first week of 2021. The expectation was that it would finally be forced to slow down soon afterwards (early 2021) due to the vaccine rollout and community spread getting us closer to herd immunity. It was based on their promise that we would have tens of millions vaccinated by the end of the year and we didn't even have a fraction of what we were expecting. Obviously, that leaves the door open for even more community spread.

Looks like we are on track for herd immunity "sooner rather than later" despite the vaccine rollout. The fact that there has been no let up in the pace is exactly why. The pace only hastens it. IOW, the pace is what supports what I was saying and continue saying. Herd immunity doesn't just kick in overnight when it reaches a magic number. There is a taper and the high number of current active cases as we approach that number is probably going to skew it higher than it otherwise would be. Still, it absolutely will slow down before it hits a brick wall. Hopefully the vaccine will make it a lot more sudden but at the current rate I fear it's too little, too late. Weeks earlier would've made all the difference.

This is what I was expecting minus the pitiful vaccination rate. It seems to be exactly what I was expecting/predicting for community spread, peaking in the US around the end of 2020 before existing immunity starts to slow it down. Obviously, having 50% of the population immune and some percentage of the remainder gradually acquiring immunity without the virus will inevitably slow the virus down even though it isn't the number needed for herd immunity. There are literally half as many people around for each infected person to infect, which measurably affects the r0.

In the same post I also said...

Since then their estimate has dropped to one in 7.2 cases, which is what I used to calculate that nearly half the population should have immunity when the current active cases have recovered. That 7.2 estimate was before the holidays so, if anything, our sudden inability to get a timely free test here and the drop in testing during the holidays would likely widen that ratio during this new peak in active cases.
Ajay and I were saying that IF the CDC model/estimate is true, then you can make assumptions about how close you're getting to natural herd immunity from infections (and first vax phases) alone. (Actually Ajay was referring to the true infection fatality rate.)
Whereas you're saying IF a baseline number of people get vaccinated and immunized, then transmissions will slow down enough to be noticeable. I'm not saying you guaranteed it'd happen by now, but your argument strongly implied it's happening on the order of weeks from New Year's Day. We shall see soon enough. I'm not holding my breath or planning a trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. :p

Again, I'm not saying the CDC model is flat out wrong, but I'm not assuming that it's correct. I haven't seen anywhere else imply that 160M Americans have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2. It seems to us that you're treating that 7.2 to 1 ratio as fact, when no serology survey that I've yet read of can support it.

FWIW, Dr. Scott Gottlieb has his personal estimates of how much of the U.S. population will be infected or vaccinated in the upcoming weeks:

And he does tend to agree with your general argument that there will be fewer new hosts to infect by that time. Still far off from 70% of the population AFAIK.
 
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Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
9,203
3,768
136
Production is continuing to expand. May as well distribute what we have now and use future deliveries for the second dose, assuming that there is good overall logistical coordination.
That is exactly what I'm worried about. I expect the Biden team to do a better job; but it won't happen immediately because it's so fvcked up.

By not letting go of more than you have and letting them skip the line when they come back.
And that is fine, IF it works, as above.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,262
11,688
136
That is exactly what I'm worried about. I expect the Biden team to do a better job; but it won't happen immediately because it's so fvcked up.
Last I heard the incoming admin is in direct contact with the manufacturers so they should have a really solid idea what production looks like.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
Ajay and I were saying that IF the CDC model/estimate is true, then you can make assumptions about how close you're getting to natural herd immunity from infections (and first vax phases) alone. (Actually Ajay was referring to the true infection fatality rate.)
Whereas you're saying IF a baseline number of people get vaccinated and immunized, then transmissions will slow down enough to be noticeable. I'm not saying you guaranteed it'd happen by now, but your argument strongly implied it's happening on the order of weeks from New Year's Day. We shall see soon enough. I'm not holding my breath or planning a trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.

Again, I'm not saying the CDC model is flat out wrong, but I'm not assuming that it's correct. I haven't seen anywhere else imply that 160M Americans have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2. It seems to us that you're treating that 7.2 to 1 ratio as fact, when no serology survey that I've yet read of can support it.

FWIW, Dr. Scott Gottlieb has his personal estimates of how much of the U.S. population will be infected or vaccinated in the upcoming weeks:

And he does tend to agree with your general argument that there will be fewer new hosts to infect by that time. Still far off from 70% of the population AFAIK.
Perhaps the CDC's estimate considers that antibodies can drop to near-undetectable levels in a matter of months and older immunity may not show in serological surveys. While obviously not verified as fact, I assume the CDC would have a particularly well-informed estimate, and it's hard to find a more authoritative estimate when this sort of thing is literally their job. If we are going to speculate about such things it seems a pretty good place to start from.

Regardless of how accurate 7.2 is, testing sites shutting down for the holidays and people skipping testing to travel and be with family are a recipe for increasing the disparity between confirmed cases and actual cases. The resulting wave of infections using up available testing resources so that people can no longer take advantage of free public testing will push the disparity even further.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
So let say you get the 2 doses of covid vaccine (one for now and another one for about 3-4 weeks later). How long will they last until you have to get another one? A year? I look online and nothing from CDC or Mayo clinic.
 
Dec 10, 2005
21,177
2,726
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So let say you get the 2 doses of covid vaccine (one for now and another one for about 3-4 weeks later). How long will they last until you have to get another one? A year? I look online and nothing from CDC or Mayo clinic.
No one knows how long it will last because a) the virus hasn't been around long enough to gauge very long-term immunity (current reports put immunity at about 8 months minimum for most) and b) the vaccine has not been used for a long enough time period to gauge. We don't even have proper evidence yet for whether the vaccines prevent asymptomatic disease.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
So let say you get the 2 doses of covid vaccine (one for now and another one for about 3-4 weeks later). How long will they last until you have to get another one? A year? I look online and nothing from CDC or Mayo clinic.
Possibly never if it ends the pandemic.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
25,737
1,359
126
My wife got the Pfizer vaccine 3 weeks ago and was told she could get her 2nd shot today. Due to availability at the time, she drove 20 minutes away to a hospital in a neighboring city to get it for the first round.

She and some colleagues went this morning to a local vax center by the same group and asked for a booster. They were all turned away and told they were only allowed to give shots from the same lot. I suppose that's for the sake of liability or QC if there were some manufacturing snafu. Anyhow, she's going to wait until Monday to get it and will return to the original location. This is likely one of those logistics issues that we're seeing with the distribution. They give half the vaccines and have to wait 3-4 weeks to give the other half. That means they are sitting on 50% of vaccines in cold storage and waiting for people to come back to free up space. I understand there are up to 7 doses per vial, but there's still quite a bit of space required to store those. As distribution of the Pfizer vaccine moves forward, I'm guessing you'll either see them get lax with that policy or they'll move away from it entirely. They're going to accrue too many different lots/doses and deal with indexing them once they try to find the lot a particular recipient needs.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
The mayor of London is saying the city is in crisis with rising new cases (with new more infectious (up to 70%) variant of virus). The health ministry is saying some of the restrictions could last until winter (months and months).
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
62,359
15,646
136
In some small towns in Arizona, 25%+ of the populations have tested positive for COVID. I was listening to some folks in one of those towns yesterday. They kept talking about how outsiders kept bringing it in and it really didn't penetrate that they could give it to each other. "You have to wear a mask when other people are around but not when it's just people from here." I kept my mask on.
 
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Spacehead

Lifer
Jun 2, 2002
11,560
5,704
136
My wife got the Pfizer vaccine 3 weeks ago and was told she could get her 2nd shot today. Due to availability at the time, she drove 20 minutes away to a hospital in a neighboring city to get it for the first round.

She and some colleagues went this morning to a local vax center by the same group and asked for a booster. They were all turned away and told they were only allowed to give shots from the same lot. I suppose that's for the sake of liability or QC if there were some manufacturing snafu. Anyhow, she's going to wait until Monday to get it and will return to the original location. This is likely one of those logistics issues that we're seeing with the distribution. They give half the vaccines and have to wait 3-4 weeks to give the other half. That means they are sitting on 50% of vaccines in cold storage and waiting for people to come back to free up space. I understand there are up to 7 doses per vial, but there's still quite a bit of space required to store those. As distribution of the Pfizer vaccine moves forward, I'm guessing you'll either see them get lax with that policy or they'll move away from it entirely. They're going to accrue too many different lots/doses and deal with indexing them once they try to find the lot a particular recipient needs.
Hopefully the need to get both shots from the same batch ends up not being an issue. We don't need anymore reasons to keep holding things up.
And if Biden's plan is to release all doses to get the 1st dose to as many people possible that might really be a problem. I hope there's an easy answer to this.
One of the doctors i saw interviewed the other day (don't remember his name...Offi or something like that) was concerned about people not getting the 2nd dose on time & how important that 2nd dose is in achieving the immunity needed.


My test results came back negative.
 
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