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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
394
228
86
If the CDC estimates that only one in 7.2 infections are reported in the USA since February and we have 21 million reported cases then they are essentially saying that we will be cruising past 50% immunity before the vaccine had the chance to make a dent (US population is only 328 million). While that's not enough for herd immunity it will certainly slow things down soon. Not the way I would've preferred, considering we already have the vaccine. :( More realistically, there are probably enough active cases right now that it ain't really slowing down until these morons finish infecting a good bit of the remaining 50%.
People KEEP focusing on THE WRONG THING. This is going to sound callous but it's NOT the deaths that matter: it's the hospitalizations, both "regular" and ICU.

It's the STUPID amount of people in potential need of hospitalization that have driven countries to enact lockdowns SINCE MARCH (and even earlier, in China's case): they realized that, left unchecked, the hospital system WILL COLLAPSE.

Many countries have opted to have "soft localized lockdowns" after having had a more severe lockdown earlier in the year. How's that working out? Let's ask UK, Germany, to name but a few ...

I've said it before and i'll say it again: it's better to have a HARD lockdown with severe measures that lasts around 1 to 2 months (depending on the number of cases BEFORE starting it), with the economic consequences that carries, than to have "soft localized lockdowns" that work dubiously @ best if @ all, but for a MUCH MORE PROLONGED period of time, which ends up having A BIGGER IMPACT on the economy in the long run.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
IF being the key word here. CZroe said weeks ago that he expected herd immunity (via infections & vaccinations) to come sooner rather than later, and so far there is no let-up in the pace of infections in the U.S. (and other countries around the world). I didn't study the CDC model on how many infections have already occurred, but I stated my doubts then:
  1. Testing has scaled up massively since the early days. It's highly dubious to think that testing missed 86% of infections last April, and continues to miss 86% of cases now.
  2. Every serology survey I've seen on places believed to have the highest rate of infections (i.e. Stockholm and Brazil) has turned up percentages much lower than the ~70% that experts estimate are needed for herd immunity. If the 1M residents of Stockholm aren't close to 70%, there's no way in hell that 330M Americans are either.
I'm not ruling out that as vaccinations pick up significant pace, then new infections will quickly taper off before the end of winter. But right now there's no concrete evidence to believe this is already occurring.

As far as the infection fatality rate, reasonable estimates I've seen are in the 0.5% range or approx. 5 times as deadly as seasonal flu. You can decide for yourself if that rate is very low (certainly it is compared to MERS or Ebola), or if the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S. for 2020 is overblown as many maintain to this day.
I also said "if:"
My point exactly. The number is significant enough that we will be seeing a significant slowdown by the end of this year when you total community-acquired and vaccine-acquired immunity, even *if* we only have frontline workers and the most vulnerable with a few more vaccinated by then.
Clearly, we didn't get frontline workers and the most vulnerable vaccinated by then while I was expecting them plus more and the cases we are having now (first week of 2021) are the cases from the end of 2020... namely, the ones I was expecting to bring us closer to immunity. As you know, the count lags the actual infections. The bulk of currently active cases in the official count are infections from the end of 2020. Cue the slowdown from infections peaking at the end of 2020, but the high number of active cases at this peak will definitely make the drop/slowdown less steep than it would have been if we got here more slowly and with more vaccine-acquired immunity.

Despite my poor wording ("significant slowdown by the end of 2020"), the expectation was never that we would see the effect of this immunity while everyone was still sick at the beginning of 2021. Of course we would still be detecting those end of 2020 cases in the first week of 2021. The expectation was that it would finally be forced to slow down soon afterwards (early 2021) due to the vaccine rollout and community spread getting us closer to herd immunity. It was based on their promise that we would have tens of millions vaccinated by the end of the year and we didn't even have a fraction of what we were expecting. Obviously, that leaves the door open for even more community spread.

Looks like we are on track for herd immunity "sooner rather than later" despite the vaccine rollout. The fact that there has been no let up in the pace is exactly why. The pace only hastens it. IOW, the pace is what supports what I was saying and continue saying. Herd immunity doesn't just kick in overnight when it reaches a magic number. There is a taper and the high number of current active cases as we approach that number is probably going to skew it higher than it otherwise would be. Still, it absolutely will slow down before it hits a brick wall. Hopefully the vaccine will make it a lot more sudden but at the current rate I fear it's too little, too late. Weeks earlier would've made all the difference.

This is what I was expecting minus the pitiful vaccination rate. It seems to be exactly what I was expecting/predicting for community spread, peaking in the US around the end of 2020 before existing immunity starts to slow it down. Obviously, having 50% of the population immune and some percentage of the remainder gradually acquiring immunity without the virus will inevitably slow the virus down even though it isn't the number needed for herd immunity. There are literally half as many people around for each infected person to infect, which measurably affects the r0.

In the same post I also said...
...The CDC itself is estimating that only 1 in 8 US cases gets reported officially:
Since then their estimate has dropped to one in 7.2 cases, which is what I used to calculate that nearly half the population should have immunity when the current active cases have recovered. That 7.2 estimate was before the holidays so, if anything, our sudden inability to get a timely free test here and the drop in testing during the holidays would likely widen that ratio during this new peak in active cases.

People KEEP focusing on THE WRONG THING. This is going to sound callous but it's NOT the deaths that matter: it's the hospitalizations, both "regular" and ICU.

It's the STUPID amount of people in potential need of hospitalization that have driven countries to enact lockdowns SINCE MARCH (and even earlier, in China's case): they realized that, left unchecked, the hospital system WILL COLLAPSE.

Many countries have opted to have "soft localized lockdowns" after having had a more severe lockdown earlier in the year. How's that working out? Let's ask UK, Germany, to name but a few ...

I've said it before and i'll say it again: it's better to have a HARD lockdown with severe measures that lasts around 1 to 2 months (depending on the number of cases BEFORE starting it), with the economic consequences that carries, than to have "soft localized lockdowns" that work dubiously @ best if @ all, but for a MUCH MORE PROLONGED period of time, which ends up having A BIGGER IMPACT on the economy in the long run.
100% agree. We are peaking right now and the huge numbers of active cases are also putting a lot of vulnerable people at risk which will be flooding into hospitals in the coming weeks. Hospitals are already at capacity. Severe cases lag even further behind the daily new cases so US hospitals are likely going to have a very rough time even just handling the new infections from last week that have yet to develop that far for all of the ones that will end up being severe. :(
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,063
4,087
136
If the CDC estimates that only one in 7.2 infections are reported in the USA since February and we have 21 million reported cases then they are essentially saying that we will be cruising past 50% immunity before the vaccine had the chance to make a dent (US population is only 328 million). While that's not enough for herd immunity it will certainly slow things down soon. Not the way I would've preferred, considering we already have the vaccine. :( More realistically, there are probably enough active cases right now that it ain't really slowing down until these morons finish infecting a good bit of the remaining 50%.
Got a link? Oklahoma is showing about a 2x antibody vs known case ratio. That has been pretty consistent since antibody positives got over 5%.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,063
4,087
136
It's been that way from the start.... We have known that a huge chunk is asymptomatic from the start. Anyone that was taking the John Hopkins numbers and just dividing deaths by cases was absolutely silly.
I agree, but anyone that thinks all of the covid deaths have been counted is also being silly. The "non-covid" deaths have spiked and followed every spike in COVID deaths all year.
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
Got a link? Oklahoma is showing about a 2x antibody vs known case ratio. That has been pretty consistent since antibody positives got over 5%.
CDC link was already quoted again since that post so I'll go another step and embed the info...
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,063
4,087
136
CDC link was already quoted again since that post so I'll go another step and embed the info...
The post I quoted had no link. Looks like that only goes through Sept and is probably heavily skewed by numbers in March and April.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
The post I quoted had no link. Looks like that only goes through Sept and is probably heavily skewed by numbers in March and April.
It was still their latest estimate updated just before Christmas Eve...


It's their current estimate from two weeks ago about the period between February and September. If it had dropped before the holidays it likely grew during/after due to reduced testing over the holidays. The surge in cases that appears to be using up available free/public testing appointments has likely skewed it higher too. The fact that Ichinisan had known exposure on the 2nd and can't get tested until the 11th (and who knows when he'll have results) speaks volumes, and even that is because he checked other free testing sites (zero appointments available as far as you can schedule them for the closest testing sites). If people with known exposure suddenly can't get tested then they probably won't be counted, driving the disparity between confirmed vs actual cases higher.
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
22,821
24,827
136

i haven't seen this posted here yet , some more info about the startup -

 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
25,806
1,408
126

i haven't seen this posted here yet , some more info about the startup -

In my second-hand experience, rapid covid tests have a very high false negative percentage. I know numerous people who tested negative once or twice, then 2-3 days later tested positive. The detection of the virus lags behind the fist symptoms, sometimes days after exposure.

Influenza rapid tests have similar issues, but the incubation period of the virus is shorter, so it will be more clear from symptoms that you are sick. Covid can be asymptomatic and take 3-5 days longer to test positive. It sucks to trying to convince people they need to cancel work/school/plans and stay home.
 
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Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
45,960
3,096
126
I've said it before and i'll say it again: it's better to have a HARD lockdown with severe measures that lasts around 1 to 2 months (depending on the number of cases BEFORE starting it), with the economic consequences that carries, than to have "soft localized lockdowns" that work dubiously @ best if @ all, but for a MUCH MORE PROLONGED period of time, which ends up having A BIGGER IMPACT on the economy in the long run.
It's kind of crazy that one of our biggest strengths (freedom, self-expression, etc.) is one of our biggest weaknesses in the pandemic. I mean, we're not alone in not choosing the best route for managing it (vs. say New Zealand), but even at this point, a hard lockdown & mandatory isolation for all incoming visitors to the country seems like it would help cut off the spread significantly.


Even Sweden has spiralled out of control. Some in New Zealand had seen the Scandinavian country as an attractive alternative approach to Covid-19 due to its decision to forgo lockdowns and trust citizens to act responsibly. That country’s king and prime minister both recently admitted the approach resulted in abject failure. Sweden ended 2020 with nearly 350,000 infections and 7,800 deaths. The country has only twice the population of New Zealand, which itself suffered 2,500 cases and 25 deaths last year.
 

H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
394
228
86
It's kind of crazy that one of our biggest strengths (freedom, self-expression, etc.) is one of our biggest weaknesses in the pandemic. I mean, we're not alone in not choosing the best route for managing it (vs. say New Zealand), but even at this point, a hard lockdown & mandatory isolation for all incoming visitors to the country seems like it would help cut off the spread significantly.

New Zealand made their "original lockdown" after having a day with NINETY NINE cases: and it was one of the hardest restrictions worldwide, @ the time.

In Portugal we had, for the 3rd day in a row, roughly 10K new daily cases: until this morning (before going to work), our Government was considering having another hard lockdown like the one we had in March but, unlike last time, without closing schools. Haven't watched the news today so that may have changed ...

Keep in mind Portugal has a bit less than twice of New Zealand's population.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,616
8,978
126
www.uovalor.com
Looks like one of the side effects of the vaccine might be that your voice will have... extra distortion.

 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,616
8,978
126
www.uovalor.com
I actually have a pretty big stock of TP right now lol. When I heard the numbers were starting to go up again I started buying some more often in case people go full retard and start hoarding it again. Got a lot of canned food though. Probably due for another grocery run though. If I can avoid touching the reserves even better, but if I get there and stuff is scarce I won't really be in a panic either. This lockdown does not seem to have changed much over here though. Here in Ontario we were suppose to be out of lockdown by end of this week I think, but they added 2 more weeks to it. Quebec has been doing bad too probably worse than Ontario.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,355
11,822
136
This may be borderline political but I didn't think Cuomo could screw up anything as badly as the first wave that hit NY but his vaccine distribution strategy is giving it a run for its money. He's got it so locked down that tons of it is sitting around because he won't let NYC start vaccinating people 75 or older. BdB also is not blameless for his ineptness of getting city clinics and distribution online but the onerous rules and penalties Cuomo has imposed are damaging to public health.

The UK variant is there already so get cracking putting doses into any older people who will take them.
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
Looks like one of the side effects of the vaccine might be that your voice will have... extra distortion.

LOL! I see some A100KΩ potentiometers on that schematic which are exactly the right specs I need to salvage for my Micomsoft XE-1 HE Pro joystick:
...except I need them in slide potentimeter form with 35mm length (20mm travel). The issue seems to be that they are missing the wiper inside.

Not sure why turbo sliders in a game controller would use logarithmic (audio) taper but they do:


I can't find slide pots with those specs so I've resorted to looking for old electronics gear that might have pots from the same manufacturer. Problem is, there's no hint as to who even made them. It's a Japanese products so it probably uses Japanese components but I can't find one from Alps, Panasonic/Matsushita, etc that looks similar enough that I can salvage wipers.

Guess I need to start looking into more Japanese audio equipment since I may find a 100K log pot for a straight swap without needing to transplant internals from one component to another. :)
 
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thestrangebrew1

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2011
3,198
254
126
I know numerous people who tested negative once or twice, then 2-3 days later tested positive. The detection of the virus lags behind the fist symptoms, sometimes days after exposure.
This happened to some friends of ours who decided to go to Hawaii a few days after xmas. Got tested 3 days before their flight that came back negative, got tested again in Hawaii and their 2 kids came back positive and started showing symptoms. They were stuck in a room quarantining, kids got better after a few days, then the parents started getting sick. I don't think they've seen the beach since they've gotten on the island.

We were supposed to go with them and cancelled.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
21,222
2,796
126
This may be borderline political but I didn't think Cuomo could screw up anything as badly as the first wave that hit NY but his vaccine distribution strategy is giving it a run for its money. He's got it so locked down that tons of it is sitting around because he won't let NYC start vaccinating people 75 or older. BdB also is not blameless for his ineptness of getting city clinics and distribution online but the onerous rules and penalties Cuomo has imposed are damaging to public health.

The UK variant is there already so get cracking putting doses into any older people who will take them.
I don't understand what's wrong with these people and the distribution logistics. If you find you have stock of vaccine left after innoculating the first wave of people, start bringing in the second. Why is this so difficult?

The perfect pair: Cuomo, the huge asshole micromanager, and BdB, the utterly incompetent executive.
 

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