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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,489
12,009
136
This looks grim to me. Best of luck to those forum regulars here who work in hospitals.
Sweden is seeing lots of medical professionals quit. Every place is going to have a breaking point for its staff who have been unthinkably burdened for months. Does the US get through the next two months without this happening here? Not sure, kinda doubt it though.
 
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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
19,567
2,940
126
This looks grim to me. Best of luck to those forum regulars here who work in hospitals

I have several friends who work at Yale New Haven hospital in different capacities and my landlords son is currently doing his residency there so no shortage of verifiable information.

I can tell you with 100% confidence that things look bleak around here in the short-run in terms of ICU beds. Connecticut is doing substantially better than many locations in this regard too largely because we just have a lot of big hospitals in-state. (also a lot of medical pro's)

Anywhere with only one small ICU facility available (and thus limited staff) that gets whacked hard is in VERY serious trouble.

:oops:
 
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Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
Germany will start a national hard lock down next week and probably to the new year. Yike.

 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
In an optimistically depressing note, ~225k Americans a day are already being vaccinated by the cold bitch herself, mother nature.
Random blood testing reveals that the real numbers are likely 10x higher. Months ago they were already saying that half of New Yorkers were showing antibodies.
 
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Spacehead

Lifer
Jun 2, 2002
11,716
6,091
136
Any idea how long after getting the vaccine one should feel "safe"? I thought i had heard after the 1st dose there was close to 50% effectiveness & then they've been saying around 95% after the 2nd dose. Just wondering how long it takes to kick in.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,489
12,009
136
Any idea how long after getting the vaccine one should feel "safe"? I thought i had heard after the 1st dose there was close to 50% effectiveness & then they've been saying around 95% after the 2nd dose. Just wondering how long it takes to kick in.
7+ days after the second dose for fullest protection.
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,146
635
126
Random blood testing reveals that the real numbers are likely 10x higher. Months ago they were already saying that half of New Yorkers were showing antibodies.
This is not likely at all; are you cherry-picking some old data point?* Back when testing was far short of necessary, many infections indeed were never confirmed by a lab test. During the summer is when CDC at one point said the true number is likely to be 5X confirmed cases. You've been saying since the summer that the U.S. testing infrastructure eventually became amongst the best in the world. Asymptomatic cases or those who choose not to get a COVID-19 test aside, I don't think we're still missing 9 out of 10 infections.

Do the math, if 16M have been confirmed positive, you're suggesting 160M Americans have already contracted the virus. That's awfully close to herd immunity range, by some estimates. At a 2M per day new case rate, you could reach herd immunity by Inauguration Day.
My hunch is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3X to 4X of lab-confirmed cases. I.e. 50 to 65M Americans have already contracted SARS-CoV-2.

* IIRC it wasn't half of NYC residents tested positive for antibodies. It was half in certain zip codes and the methodology tends to capture more people who are out and about and thus at higher risk (obviously you're not testing hermits who are hiding at home all day long).
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
This is not likely at all; are you cherry-picking some old data point?* Back when testing was far short of necessary, many infections indeed were never confirmed by a lab test. During the summer is when CDC at one point said the true number is likely to be 5X confirmed cases. You've been saying since the summer that the U.S. testing infrastructure eventually became amongst the best in the world. Asymptomatic cases or those who choose not to get a COVID-19 test aside, I don't think we're still missing 9 out of 10 infections.

Do the math, if 16M have been confirmed positive, you're suggesting 160M Americans have already contracted the virus. That's awfully close to herd immunity range, by some estimates. At a 2M per day new case rate, you could reach herd immunity by Inauguration Day.
My hunch is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3X to 4X of lab-confirmed cases. I.e. 50 to 65M Americans have already contracted SARS-CoV-2.

* IIRC it wasn't half of NYC residents tested positive for antibodies. It was half in certain zip codes and the methodology tends to capture more people who are out and about and thus at higher risk (obviously you're not testing hermits who are hiding at home all day long).
My point exactly. The number is significant enough that we will be seeing a significant slowdown by the end of this year when you total community-acquired and vaccine-acquired immunity, even if we only have frontline workers and the most vulnerable with a few more vaccinated by then.

For "10x" I used the same shorthand many doctors and experts are using when they want to remind us that the real numbers are significantly higher. The CDC itself is estimating that only 1 in 8 US cases gets reported officially:
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
46,000
3,112
126
Perhaps it depends on your location, but googling the words "running out ICU beds" produces results too scary to look at.

It's not so much that you get dozens of news item hits, but more that they aren't different sources reporting about the same places, but different reports about places all over the US and the world. It's the sheer geographical scope over which that same news story appears that is very disturbing.

"The US", locations all over that country, Sweden, Germany, "Europe" as a whole, Manchester, London, Belgium...the list of locations facing the same crisis point goes on and on.
My buddy just had to go to the ER for a non-COVID medical issue. No ICU or ER beds available. They had him sit in a chair in the hallway for 17 hours. No joke.
 
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Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
46,000
3,112
126

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,146
635
126
My point exactly. The number is significant enough that we will be seeing a significant slowdown by the end of this year when you total community-acquired and vaccine-acquired immunity, even if we only have frontline workers and the most vulnerable with a few more vaccinated by then.

For "10x" I used the same shorthand many doctors and experts are using when they want to remind us that the real numbers are significantly higher. The CDC itself is estimating that only 1 in 8 US cases gets reported officially:
I'm not qualified to dispute the CDC, but I have to wonder how accurate this is. Thanks for the source; note that page is updated through September and confirmed cases have doubled since then. Based on their model, 120M Americans have already contracted the virus if you hold the 8:1 ratio fixed. In reality, the U.S. is doing a lot of daily testing so I'd assume this ratio has decreased over time.

Without studying their methodology, I have a couple rebuttals. First, they're modeling only 15% of cases as asymptomatic. That seems lower than other figures we've seen. Secondly, Sweden had very few controls since the pandemic started up until recently. Every time they've surveyed antibodies in Stockholm, the percentage infected has been a lot lower than they expected, or would be needed for herd immunity. I'm not saying Sweden is a close comp to the U.S., but it serves as a cautionary tale against employing a herd immunity "strategy" (intentionally or otherwise).

We'll see if confirmed case numbers begin to taper off in a few weeks. Obviously the vaccine is a game-changer, but I'm skeptical that we'll have acquired that level of immunity so soon. In my viewpoint, to bend the infections curve down will require significant changes in human behavior in the near-term.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,900
3,797
136
Random blood testing reveals that the real numbers are likely 10x higher. Months ago they were already saying that half of New Yorkers were showing antibodies.

Not half of New Yorkers, half of those tested in one zip code in Queens.



New York City on Tuesday released more than 1.46 million coronavirus antibody test results, the largest number to date, providing more evidence of how the virus penetrated deeply into some lower-income communities while passing more lightly across affluent parts of the city.

In one ZIP code in Queens, more than 50 percent of people who had gotten tested were found to have antibodies, a strikingly high rate. But no ZIP code south of 96th Street in Manhattan had a positive rate of more than 20 percent.

Across the city, more than 27 percent of those tested had positive antibody results. The borough with the highest rate was the Bronx, at 33 percent. Manhattan had the lowest rate, at 19 percent.
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
852
126
Not half of New Yorkers, half of those tested in one zip code in Queens.


Yeah, and that was many months ago. It's definitely higher now so it stands to reason that some parts of New York are already slowing down as they near herd immunity. Even 27% would have a measurable effect on how readily the virus can spread, and that was months ago. Confirmed cases have more than doubled.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
62,595
15,921
136

Nerds who spend all day behind an LED screen rejoice lol
UV-C LEDs (shortwave LEDs) are expensive and prone to self-destruction due to overheating. Single LEDs in the 265nm range run US$150+ a pop for relatively low luminescent output. The good news, as mentioned in this paper, is that 280nm LEDs are almost as effective and are cheaper (but still not cheap). Quite frankly, the light bulb in an EasyBake oven is a better COVID killer than UV just due to heating.

To get an idea of how hot UV LEDs run, the pic below is of a longwave UV LED with it's heatsink. The LED itself is behind the dark filter glass circle and is about a tenth the size of the circle. The shortwave LEDs needed for disinfection run even hotter.

1607991292209.png
 
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Dec 10, 2005
21,280
2,870
126
Any idea how long after getting the vaccine one should feel "safe"? I thought i had heard after the 1st dose there was close to 50% effectiveness & then they've been saying around 95% after the 2nd dose. Just wondering how long it takes to kick in.
Also, remember that the 95% is effectiveness versus the placebo in a clinical trial. Real-world effectiveness is likely to be lower. Additionally, the trial didn't measure for asymptomatic infections and whether people that are vaccinated that get an asymptomatic infection can still spread the virus.

The vaccine is a great first step, but we'll likely need to maintain some protective measures as the vaccine continues to roll out and the virus still runs rampant.
 
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local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,819
476
136
I received an official letter about unblinding the Pfizer trial. They are offering people the option to unblind and move to the vaccine arm of the trial starting immediately if they are healthcare workers or in long term care facilities. The rest of us have to wait until our 4th visit and we can decide then, for me that is early April. I will be donating blood soon and part of that is an antibody test so I will find out one way or another.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
356
126
Random blood testing reveals that the real numbers are likely 10x higher. Months ago they were already saying that half of New Yorkers were showing antibodies.
This has been said before, either by your or your brother. Back in the spring, there was talk of exactly this topic based on some study or another, and yet ultimately it was recanted. Not saying that your argument is wrong, but I'm curious what sources you've then, and what sources you've now?

I mean to me it does make sense, that the real infective rates are higher than given now, due to the natural self-selection effect driving who gets tested. Of course it's higher than official estimates, so goes the argument.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
46,000
3,112
126
UV-C LEDs (shortwave LEDs) are expensive and prone to self-destruction due to overheating. Single LEDs in the 265nm range run US$150+ a pop for relatively low luminescent output. The good news, as mentioned in this paper, is that 280nm LEDs are almost as effective and are cheaper (but still not cheap). Quite frankly, the light bulb in an EasyBake oven is a better COVID killer than UV just due to heating.

To get an idea of how hot UV LEDs run, the pic below is of a longwave UV LED with it's heatsink. The LED itself is behind the dark filter glass circle and is about a tenth the size of the circle. The shortwave LEDs needed for disinfection run even hotter.

View attachment 35702
Can I get that off Alibaba?
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
9,146
635
126
This has been said before, either by your or your brother. Back in the spring, there was talk of exactly this topic based on some study or another, and yet ultimately it was recanted. Not saying that your argument is wrong, but I'm curious what sources you've then, and what sources you've now?

I mean to me it does make sense, that the real infective rates are higher than given now, due to the natural self-selection effect driving who gets tested. Of course it's higher than official estimates, so goes the argument.
His previous post above this one sounds like speculation.
Like I said, I won't dispute the CDC's model but to me the numbers don't make great sense. If the U.S. is steadily creeping towards herd immunity, so should Sweden be. IIRC, they aren't even close yet.

To be fair, the real number of infections are no doubt significantly higher than lab-confirmed cases so we all agree on that general point. It's very difficult to say by what factor, and 5:1 has been cited in the past when the U.S. was doing a lot less daily testing. I am not an epidemiologist, but 7.7 to 9.7X seems like a stretch.
 
Dec 10, 2005
21,280
2,870
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only negative news is the shots look a little rougher than Pfizer/BNT but I’d still def take it
I'd be careful about making cross trial comparisons, just because of potential differences in study populations and monitoring for adverse events. You could try to "normalize" it by looking at differences from placebo in each trial, but that only gets you so far and the other issues still remain.
 

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