NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
India police also beats people when they are caught violating stay at home and gathering orders. So, like China, they are generally more "effective" at enforcing dumb people to stop doing dumb things.

Say what you will about the methods and their efficiency at turning the entire country into a prison for about 1 and a half months, but China knocked that shit out of the park.
Not sure how beating people keeps their deaths per confirmed cases proportionally lower, which is what that conversation thread was about.

In response to Ponyo saying he was more comfortable with the spike because of the lower death rate we have now in the US, I was saying that India still had half as many deaths and more recoveries despite lower confirmed case numbers. IOW, the US has 45% more confirmed cases with 200% more deaths.

Considering that deaths and severe cases are the most visible and likely to be counted cases, especially in India, I can't take comfort in our death numbers. I don't see how he can. Even if they are declining they are still massively high compared to CFRs in other countries. Maybe that's because we are more willing to attribute a death with certain complications or maybe it is our comparatively poor health like Svnla implies, but 200% more deaths with only 45% more cases is a lot... especially when you consider that visibility in India is likely to skew even further toward severe cases due to their enormous population.
 

thestrangebrew1

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2011
3,482
412
126
Kinda ironic the place I took my family to get a rapid test done this morning is closed because....

An outbreak happened sometime in the last 24 hours. Same place my SIL went yesterday and found out her husband was positive. Place was an hour away and I woke the family up to get there early. It basically turned out to be an extra long Starbucks run. Good thing is no one in my family is showing symptoms and at this point it's been 6 days.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,291
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No offense, but certain countries should be ignored for Covid-19 comparison purposes (to the U.S.) irrespective of the quality of their response or outcomes. India is the poorest G20 country AFAIK (by far) and shouldn't be compared to any developed countries. Most likely they are underreporting deaths related to Covid-19. In judging where the U.S. stands, you can look at the G7 countries and toss in Australia and South Korea (and maybe China, but their political system is vastly different).

Obviously the U.S. is lumped in with several other hard-hit European countries: UK, Spain, France & Italy. We're clearly worse off than Germany; and significantly worse than the few countries that performed extremely well (i.e. AU and SK, among other non G20 examples).

All that aside, anybody who says they're okay with current CFR isn't truly seeing the automobile crash happening in slow motion. That particular post of just a few days ago hasn't aged well, has it?

As for the "recoveries," isn't it obvious the U.S. isn't really tracking this? I mean come on, there are about 100k Americans currently hospitalized (and rapidly increasing). We know 80% of all cases are mild. It stands to reason without doing complex research that there cannot be five million Americans nursing confirmed, active cases of Covid-19. Sure we've heard of long-haulers and what not, but clearly the U.S. (and apparently France) don't track recovered cases with any level of accuracy.

Edit:

The Atlantic writes:
The bulk of evidence now suggests that one of the worst fears of the pandemic—that hospitals would become overwhelmed, leading to needless deaths—is happening now.

Their analysis shows there was a small uptick in CFR in November as compared to the prior 2 months.

 
Last edited:
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Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
CNN has stated today that over 500k Americans will be dead from this virus by April, and that COVID19 is now the he leading cause of death. We are still 3-4 months out before the vaccine is distributed to the masses. In some ways this is truly 1918 all over again. History does repeat itself.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
No offense, but certain countries should be ignored for Covid-19 comparison purposes (to the U.S.) irrespective of the quality of their response or outcomes. India is the poorest G20 country AFAIK (by far) and shouldn't be compared to any developed countries. Most likely they are underreporting deaths related to Covid-19. In judging where the U.S. stands, you can look at the G7 countries and toss in Australia and South Korea (and maybe China, but their political system is vastly different).

Obviously the U.S. is lumped in with several other hard-hit European countries: UK, Spain, France & Italy. We're clearly worse off than Germany; and significantly worse than the few countries that performed extremely well (i.e. AU and SK, among other non G20 examples).

All that aside, anybody who says they're okay with current CFR isn't truly seeing the automobile crash happening in slow motion. That particular post of just a few days ago hasn't aged well, has it?

As for the "recoveries," isn't it obvious the U.S. isn't really tracking this? I mean come on, there are about 100k Americans currently hospitalized (and rapidly increasing). We know 80% of all cases are mild. It stands to reason without doing complex research that there cannot be five million Americans nursing confirmed, active cases of Covid-19. Sure we've heard of long-haulers and what not, but clearly the U.S. (and apparently France) don't track recovered cases with any level of accuracy.

Edit:

The Atlantic writes:


Their analysis shows there was a small uptick in CFR in November as compared to the prior 2 months.


Yea, that's scary. COVID19 put my friend in the hospital for 2 days. He's a perfectly healthy 45 year old as well. He had pneumonia on top of being extremely sick. He told me that he could breathe, but felt like a truck hit him. It was the worse illness he's ever faced.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,291
2,326
136
New Mexico is likely to move into a state of crisis standard of care, allowing overwhelmed hospitals to triage for most likely to survive


Love the quote from New Mexico's leading death cultist:
Stevan Pearce, the Republican Party chair in New Mexico, said Lujan Grisham would be better off following the lead of GOP governors who have taken a hands-off approach and favored “personal responsibility” over government interventions.

“We’ve been one of the most restrictive states in the nation yet we’re still seeing the spike,” said Pearce, who lost a 2018 election to Lujan Grisham. “So obviously the controls didn’t work. We may have to just learn to live with this.”
Let's fire all the epidemiologists because personal responsibility will keep everyone healthy! <sarcasm />
 
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local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,851
512
136
My neighbors son died this week, seemingly very healthy 36 year old. He was at their house on Thanksgiving doing some stuff said he didn't feel well and collapsed. They took him to the hospital where he required sedation and a vent. Two days later all major internal organs were failing, heart was pumping at 5% so they put him in a coma. Two days later and they made the call. He did not test positive for COVID but he did have antibodies. Official cause of death is complications from COVID. Looks like he had an asymptomatic case that lead to blood clots and a pulmonary embolism and maybe more clot related damage then infection set in to his liver, kidneys, lungs and heart. Even asymptomatic cases can be deadly.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,554
34,229
136
My neighbors son died this week, seemingly very healthy 36 year old. He was at their house on Thanksgiving doing some stuff said he didn't feel well and collapsed. They took him to the hospital where he required sedation and a vent. Two days later all major internal organs were failing, heart was pumping at 5% so they put him in a coma. Two days later and they made the call. He did not test positive for COVID but he did have antibodies. Official cause of death is complications from COVID. Looks like he had an asymptomatic case that lead to blood clots and a pulmonary embolism and maybe more clot related damage then infection set in to his liver, kidneys, lungs and heart. Even asymptomatic cases can be deadly.

Jesus Christ that’s terrible.
 

Stopsignhank

Platinum Member
Mar 1, 2014
2,319
1,496
136
My wife has someone who reports to her at work that tested positive last month. So did her father who was living with her. He was in the hospital for a couple of days but was released and went home. He ended up back in the hospital over the weekend. His organs started to shut down, they tried dialysis but he passed away yesterday.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
Both of my in-laws and at least 15 at my church now have covid. One in my church died of it last week and one is in the ICU today with double pneumonia.

We haven't been to church since early March or late February. We purposefully quarantined away from the in-laws because they broke the protocol when my MIL took a trip to have a family gathering with her sister and her family.

Be careful folks. It doesn't take but a few days for this stuff to spiral when people keep letting their guard down.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
Welp, my brother gots the COVID as does his husband. Both were feeling like crap but are doing better. My brother in law tested positive two weeks ago so they will both end up quarantining for about a month.
Hoping they bounce back.
 

local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,851
512
136
Jesus Christ that’s terrible.

Yeah they are pretty shocked. No one even knew he was sick.

Be careful folks. It doesn't take but a few days for this stuff to spiral when people keep letting their guard down.

Yep. We had a mostly isolated Thanksgiving, went to the in-laws and ate outside at separate tables. My wife's grandfather was not invited as he is quite old and vulnerable, 80 something I think. But he went to another dinner instead. Last Monday he started feeling sick so he went to the hospital he couldn't breath, body aches, etc. Hospital ran a COVID test but before it came back they let him go as he was not doing poorly. So what does everyone assume from this? He must not have COVID since the hospital let him go so he has now been in contact with half the family and is staying with my in-laws who are all 60+. Then they are surprised when a day later he gets his positive test results...

It is like people default to the worst possible choice when given a chance.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,554
34,229
136
Yep. We had a mostly isolated Thanksgiving, went to the in-laws and ate outside at separate tables. My wife's grandfather was not invited as he is quite old and vulnerable, 80 something I think. But he went to another dinner instead. Last Monday he started feeling sick so he went to the hospital he couldn't breath, body aches, etc. Hospital ran a COVID test but before it came back they let him go as he was not doing poorly. So what does everyone assume from this? He must not have COVID since the hospital let him go so he has now been in contact with half the family and is staying with my in-laws who are all 60+. Then they are surprised when a day later he gets his positive test results...

It is like people default to the worst possible choice when given a chance.

This is directed at the situation not you:

CF197003-465D-4735-A079-DB8553758CEB.jpeg
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
...Obviously the U.S. is lumped in with several other hard-hit European countries: UK, Spain, France & Italy. We're clearly worse off than Germany; and significantly worse than the few countries that performed extremely well (i.e. AU and SK, among other non G20 examples).

It seems that the USA is significantly below Germany in the so-called "Severity Index:"
Screenshot_20201206-010413_YouTube.jpg
Screenshot_20201206-010707_YouTube.jpg


Yeah, I don't put much stock in it either.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
Yeah they are pretty shocked. No one even knew he was sick.



Yep. We had a mostly isolated Thanksgiving, went to the in-laws and ate outside at separate tables. My wife's grandfather was not invited as he is quite old and vulnerable, 80 something I think. But he went to another dinner instead. Last Monday he started feeling sick so he went to the hospital he couldn't breath, body aches, etc. Hospital ran a COVID test but before it came back they let him go as he was not doing poorly. So what does everyone assume from this? He must not have COVID since the hospital let him go so he has now been in contact with half the family and is staying with my in-laws who are all 60+. Then they are surprised when a day later he gets his positive test results...

It is like people default to the worst possible choice when given a chance.
There are so many examples of situations where you wait for things to pass. Weather is the best example when talking about ocean passage or VFR aviation. In both cases, you have weather windows and must wait patiently when the situation is too risky or dangerous to go ahead with your plans. The climate out there is very much along the lines where people are ignoring the storm and going out in the weather nevertheless.... It's disheartening that people continue to fuel the spread when it isn't just stupidity or ignorance.... It's best described as selfishness and wreckless behavior.

I hope we all stay safe until next Summer. I hear heat kills Covid.
 
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thestrangebrew1

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2011
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My first test on Thursday came back negative this morning. Took another test yesterday with my wife and daughter and waiting for those results. It’ll be a few more days for results but so far we’re doing alright with no symptoms. My SIL is waiting for her results but she’s in a cycle of feeling like crap and then feeling fine. Her husband lost his taste and smell Friday.

Our county just went on shutdown since our region has less than 15% capacity for ICU beds. According to the order, anyone who has the ability to wfh should be doing so, but I’m not confident our office is going to implement the order. So stupid. I also found out Friday that a janitor was working on Monday and found out they were positive. This person may have infected half the building. Oddly enough, an email about it only went out to the facilities staff and not the building.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,291
2,326
136
It seems that the USA is significantly below Germany in the so-called "Severity Index:"

[ snipped images ]

Yeah, I don't put much stock in it either.
Obviously that's for a snapshot in time (now). Germany has been muddling along for weeks, with some restrictions but not full panic mode lockdown IIRC. Since their numbers haven't improved enough, they've extended the restrictions into January. The good news for Germany is they have an extremely robust hospitals system, so they are unlikely to run up against hard limits. The case numbers for Italy have been scary; infections are down from November's peak but deaths continue to churn at high totals. It's a likely preview of the next few weeks in the U.S. as America has been racking up huge infections for weeks now.

Anyway I was referring to the entire year for comparison's sake. The U.S. isn't alone among developed countries that did poorly, but that's no solace for anybody.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,554
34,229
136
A disorganized distribution effort is something a lot of people have been afraid of for a while and and it's not looking so hot. States aren't sure how much of which vaccines they'll get and hospitals are mostly in the dark on the same. Among other impending problems.


 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
A disorganized distribution effort is something a lot of people have been afraid of for a while and and it's not looking so hot. States aren't sure how much of which vaccines they'll get and hospitals are mostly in the dark on the same. Among other impending problems.


No one knows anything until the FDA approves the first vaccine and the military or whoever is overseeing the distribution contacts the local markets it's heading to. If they are just doing Pfiezer this month, I wouldn't expect them to get to Moderna until 1-2 weeks later and that basically puts Moderna into January if they have manufacturing going already.

As far as the Pfiezer distrobution goes, I agree that it's going to be tricky. I really don't care if they focus only on a 3-5 major cities to distribute all doses in those key areas...as long as they can distribute what they have ahead of production. I'm assuming the Moderna vaccine is going to be a better fit for rural America anyway.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,330
251
126
This pandemic has revived my PC building hobby and I've gone all out mad it. I'm cutting/modding a case, sleeving my own cables, and OCD bending acrylic tubes to perfect 90 degree angles during some of my free time. I've been working on it for over a month now (actually starting buying parts well over 2 months ago), and I might actually finish it in about 2 more weeks. I can't say I'll ever do a build like this again as it takes way too much time and planning, but it's been a mentally stimulating way to use some of my time.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,554
34,229
136
No one knows anything until the FDA approves the first vaccine and the military or whoever is overseeing the distribution contacts the local markets it's heading to. If they are just doing Pfiezer this month, I wouldn't expect them to get to Moderna until 1-2 weeks later and that basically puts Moderna into January if they have manufacturing going already.

As far as the Pfiezer distrobution goes, I agree that it's going to be tricky. I really don't care if they focus only on a 3-5 major cities to distribute all doses in those key areas...as long as they can distribute what they have ahead of production. I'm assuming the Moderna vaccine is going to be a better fit for rural America anyway.

The number of available doses has to be pretty well known at this point through the end of the year and a lot of it sitting in storage/awaiting filling. Governors have been dribbling out info about how many doses their states are likely to receive of each so people at HHS/OWS have to be telling them something. I think getting Pfizer's vaccine to places (mostly hospitals) is going to be less tricky than making sure those places know to expect it, how much they'll get, when they might get more, and have a plan in place for staff inoculation that's actually going to work. I'm starting to think that mass inoculation centers are a better idea for everybody except long term care residents.