NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
33,226
5,121
126
It kinda annoys me that Costco of all places hasn't implemented curbside since this pandemic started.

Bad move overall, thought they used to be pretty smart business wise - but it seems they have lost their touch.
Couple of girls next door did a Costco run a month or so ago and got stuff for me and said they'd do it again in a month or two. But they both moved out in the last week or two! One may call me, maybe not, said she would, but I'm not holding my breath. If she doesn't, I WON'T call her!

I think somebody on Nextdoor posted that Costco will deliver. I have no idea if that's true or what the system would be.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,778
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Couple of girls next door did a Costco run a month or so ago and got stuff for me and said they'd do it again in a month or two. But they both moved out in the last week or two! One may call me, maybe not, said she would, but I'm not holding my breath. If she doesn't, I WON'T call her!

I think somebody on Nextdoor posted that Costco will deliver. I have no idea if that's true or what the system would be.
They deliver but it's typically severely limited in what they will deliver. For example, Ive never seen on their site the ability to order eggs, milk, produce, etc.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
33,226
5,121
126
They deliver but it's typically severely limited in what they will deliver. For example, Ive never seen on their site the ability to order eggs, milk, produce, etc.
Oh, I guess you mean Costco Online. I've ordered from them a few times. I was thinking the warehouse... delivery or something. Guess that's not doable.
 
Feb 4, 2009
31,921
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Freaking China. Looks like there's ANOTHER virus with pandemic potential now thanks to them.


Also not sure if related but there's a video floating around of them burning pigs ALIVE. Just brutal. At least shoot them first.
Thing I saw a long time ago and I can’t explain the specifics but every first world country knows to keep cow, chicken and pigs separated from each other with minimal overlap.
Basically viruses pass from chicken or cows to each other, which then spread to pigs whose immune system is close enough to ours that viruses can make a leap to man.
Everywhere keeps the animals separated from each other so they don’t eat poop lying around from one another. Some places don’t allow all three species to be kept on the same farm.
For whatever reason China is incapable of keeping the three animals separated.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
10,929
1,322
126
What no one is talking about is the incoming rate of crime. It's going to increase because of COVID19. With 50m plus unemployed it's going to get bad.

Besides that, I think we are in for a rough next 6 months. This could alter our lives immensely.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
62,670
9,780
126
twitter.com
Thing I saw a long time ago and I can’t explain the specifics but every first world country knows to keep cow, chicken and pigs separated from each other with minimal overlap.
Basically viruses pass from chicken or cows to each other, which then spread to pigs whose immune system is close enough to ours that viruses can make a leap to man.
Everywhere keeps the animals separated from each other so they don’t eat poop lying around from one another. Some places don’t allow all three species to be kept on the same farm.
For whatever reason China is incapable of keeping the three animals separated.
Yeah that's the thing, China just has all around horrible practices when it comes to farming, livestock, food and well... everything really. Not just from a humane perspective but a cleanliness perspective too, and well just overall. They really just don't care and it's a total different mentality over there. I mean, they eat half hatched eggs, and fish that are still alive. It's just so messed up in so many ways. This is why I am so critical of them. They caused Coronavirus, and it's not even over yet and they are not even changing any of their practices and there's already another virus that could potentially hit us.

I can appreciate some aspects of China like laxer regulations about everything and the overall business friendly approach, as in most modern countries we have way too many, but there needs to be a happy medium. You do need regulations, perhaps just not to the point that everything you try to do involves some kind of barrier and red tape.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
62,670
9,780
126
twitter.com
What no one is talking about is the incoming rate of crime. It's going to increase because of COVID19. With 50m plus unemployed it's going to get bad.

Besides that, I think we are in for a rough next 6 months. This could alter our lives immensely.
Already seeing more crime in my city, though it's hard to tell if it's because of covid or not since crime has been going up anyway.

Funny though, when the pandemic started one of the well known drug houses went up in flames. Guess they were worried drugs would not be deemed an essential service and they would not make enough money so they went the insurance fraud way lol.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
33,226
5,121
126
Haha no I work in an entirely different industry but always found biology fascinating. Since I'm furloughed probably until August I've had lots of time to read articles and figure out what actual experts on twitter aren't full of shit and follow their analysis.
Can you identify some of those experts? Please?!
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
33,226
5,121
126

They've tried nothing and are all out of ideas?
The 28% positivity rate is what's astounding.

Saw report that Oklahoma had 100% positivity rate yesterday of over 300 cases. WTF!

Saw video that blew my mind. I knew from something a couple months ago in the news that TX Lt. Governor was an asshole, but they showed him last night saying that he disagreed 100% with everything that Dr. Fauci has said and will never listen to him again. Just unfathomable.

 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
11,347
3,058
136
The 28% positivity rate is what's astounding.

Saw report that Oklahoma had 100% positivity rate yesterday of over 300 cases. WTF!
300 tests isn't that much. And yes 100% doesn't tell you much beyond that they are only testing people with symptoms. Probally not getting the flu in the middle of the summer in Oklahoma.
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
24,488
29,302
136
The 28% positivity rate is what's astounding.

Saw report that Oklahoma had 100% positivity rate yesterday of over 300 cases. WTF!

Saw video that blew my mind. I knew from something a couple months ago in the news that TX Lt. Governor was an asshole, but they showed him last night saying that he disagreed 100% with everything that Dr. Fauci has said and will never listen to him again. Just unfathomable.

That 100% positive was from people that ended up in the trump klan rally


50,000 new cases a day now

Developing nation helps deliver PPE to reservation (you'd think the US would be able to provide for their own...)

 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
39,712
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Regarding percent-positive (positivity) numbers, how do you guys think antibody/serology tests should be calculated?

I read a hit piece from May critical of the way Georgia was figuring their positivity numbers. Though their goal was to make it look like Georgia was cooking the books I came out with the opposite understanding: the authors were clearly ignoring key details to paint the wrong picture.

See, the WHO recommends a positivity rate below 5% before reopening. Though I've seen people criticize states for lowering their positivity rates with more testing, that's the entire point of the WHO's recommendation: To increase visibility and know that the infection rate in the general population is even lower than that (considering positivity is skewed higher from testing probable cases).

So here's where they claim that Georgia is cooking the books:
Georgia doesn't count positive serology tests toward the positivity numbers but does count the negative ones. Supposedly, this gives GA up to 3% lower positivity. OMG!

Well, think about that for a second. You obviously can't count positive serology tests for a true positivity rate since the rate is supposed to measure active cases and a serology test will still be positive after a patient has recovered (hopefully forever). A negative serology test is almost equivalent to a negative PCR test, though it does take a little longer for the body to create antibodies. Counting them as negative tests for the positivity calculations sounds like it would skew the rate down... until you consider that everyone who tests positive will then get a PCR test to see if the infection is still active. Unless they still count it as two tests for the positivity calculation, this will keep the rate balanced and accurate.

Am I missing something here?

This was the article:
It seems extremely improper (and arguably intentionally dishonest) to combine PCR and antibody testing results. Just report both sets of stats independently.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
39,712
16,946
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Latest US Jobs report has been released today with better than expected results.

US Unemployment rate down to 11.1% after a high of 14.7% in April.

Watching the government spiking the football declaring problems solved so aggressively should concern everybody. Cases are exploding and big states are closing up again which isn't reflected in the data employment being touted because of lag. Woe to the incumbent government come August if congress and the president fail to extend the UI boost and dramatically cut fiscal stimulus.
 
Nov 8, 2012
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Watching the government spiking the football declaring problems solved so aggressively should concern everybody. Cases are exploding and big states are closing up again which isn't reflected in the data employment being touted because of lag. Woe to the incumbent government come August if congress and the president fail to extend the UI boost and dramatically cut fiscal stimulus.
Well... This is the June job report, so shouldn't the re-closing of states from last week be accounted for here?

I think it's safe to say after this jobs report they aren't going to be passing a stimulus that is anywhere close to what it was last time - probably trim the UI bonus to half, not even sure they will do them stimulus check at this point.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
39,712
16,946
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Well... This is the June job report, so shouldn't the re-closing of states from last week be accounted for here?

I think it's safe to say after this jobs report they aren't going to be passing a stimulus that is anywhere close to what it was last time - probably trim the UI bonus to half, not even sure they will do them stimulus check at this point.
I think the report's reference week is mid-June which is before a lot of the pullback started.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
It seems extremely improper (and arguably intentionally dishonest) to combine PCR and antibody testing results. Just report both sets of stats independently.
They do report them independently. I was talking about how they combine them for figuring the positivity rate, which sounds bad at first but makes sense when you think about it. Remember, a low positivity rate target ensures two things: lower community infections AND increased testing/visibility of active infections (instead of just testing people who are likely sick).

It seems entirely appropriate when a positive antibody test that wasn't anticipated will almost invariably result in a follow-up PCR test. Count that one, since it reflects the current activity of the virus (visibility of active infections, remember?). All PCR tests count so the active case visibility improves, which is the goal of reaching positivity <5%. Negative antibody tests obviously count about as much as a PCR negative. For negative results factoring into positivity rate, the two kinds of testing are nearly equivalent other than the antibody test's slightly longer lag time before testing positive. I don't feel that is a big issue when the goal is visibility through increased testing. Both kinds of negatives improve visibility and they aren't skewing by eliminating antibody positives as long as they factor the inevitable follow-up PCR instead... which they do. This 3% lower skew the article theorizes about seems to be FUD.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
39,712
16,946
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They do report them independently. I was talking about how they combine them for figuring the positivity rate, which sounds bad at first but makes sense when you think about it.
Some states were not breaking them out and they should not be used to calculate the positivity rate for the purposes of setting current health policy.


It seems entirely appropriate when a positive antibody test that wasn't anticipated will invariably result in a PCR test. Count that one, since it reflects the current activity of the virus. All PCR tests count so the active case visibility improves, which is the goal of reaching positivity <5%. Negative antibody tests obviously count about as much as a PCR negative. For negative results factoring into positivity rate, the two kinds of testing are nearly equivalent other than the antibody test's slightly longer lag time before testing positive. I don't feel that is a big issue when the goal is visibility through increased testing. Both kinds of negatives improve visibility and they aren't skewing by eliminating antibody positives as long as they factor the inevitable follow-up PCR instead.
PCR tests are to look for active infections so you can manage the outbreak. Antibody tests just tell you what happened likely after the person ceases to be significantly or at all contagious. There is no reason to give someone a PCR test on the basis of a positive antibody test. Both kinds of testing do give views into the outbreak but antibody testing is just looking through the rear view mirror. Broader serology studies trying to gauge how much of the population has been infected are useful to know where we stand.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
Some states were not breaking them out and they should not be used to calculate the positivity rate for the purposes of setting current health policy.

PCR tests are to look for active infections so you can manage the outbreak. Antibody tests just tell you what happened likely after the person ceases to be significantly or at all contagious. There is no reason to give someone a PCR test on the basis of a positive antibody test. Both kinds of testing do give views into the outbreak but antibody testing is just looking through the rear view mirror. Broader serology studies trying to gauge how much of the population has been infected are useful to know where we stand.
I actually did a lot more editing just before your response so the version of the post you responded to was only half-baked. Sorry.

Yes, a positive antibody test is a look back, which is why they are not counted, but how long is the lag for a positive antibody test versus a positive PCR? If it is only a day or two and a positive serology test will result in a follow-up PCR test, I feel it might be appropriate to count the negatives this way.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
39,712
16,946
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I actually did a lot more editing just before your response so the version of the post you responded to was only half-baked. Sorry.

Yes, a positive antibody test is a look back, which is why they are not counted, but how long is the lag for a positive antibody test versus a positive PCR? If it is only a day or two and a positive serology test will result in a follow-up PCR test, I feel it might be appropriate to count them this way.
IgG I think a week or so after symptom onset generally so significantly later than PCR which can find it presymptomatic.
 
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