I figured that mantle was just a re-factoring of the low level work they'd done with consoles to simply fit on to the PC, it seems like a lot of work for them to do just for the PC platform from the ground up, so I think you're probably dead right there.
My concern isn't the consoles it's the PC, are AMD really going to keep up the work necessary to keep the drivers and the API working flawlessly across all of their cards and make sure implementation in various games work well?
What happens when the architecture changes? One thing I've brought up before is that the architecture is the way it is because it primarily caters to DirectX, what happens if MS make changes in DX requirements that make other architectures more efficient for newer features?
All of the issues that come with API and architecture evolving are going to keep piling on AMD as the years go on, I find it very hard to believe this will be something available for the long run, maybe as long as they can keep GCN up, then probably retired.
That we'll just have to see; but anything from GCN and up will be able to handling Mantle.
that means 7000+ and new R200 series - 6000 and below won't benefit from mantle as they are a different art..
I see GCN lasting easily as long if not longer than last art from AMD - specially since its programmable and very flexable.