*** NFL Week 13 Discussion Thread ***

[mugs]

I can't find longer stats, but from 2000-2007 over 148 OT games:

- The coinflip winner takes the games 60%
- The coinflip loser never touches the ball in 30% of those games
- The home team only wins 51% of games that went to OT

The last stat is significant because homefield is seen as a huge advantage in the NFL. This shows that home teams win only as much as they win the coin flip. And 60% is a huge edge. When you are in control of the ball on offense then you dictate the tempo of the game which is a major advantage. A team is both offense and defense and a team should be given equal chance in winning in OT as in regulation.

I tried to explain that in the previous thread, but he doesn't understand. I'm not sure why I bothered trying to explain this to him again. I guess I just couldn't believe the absurdity of citing the Saints-Redskins game as proof of fairness.

 

[Adrenaline]

I can't find longer stats, but from 2000-2007 over 148 OT games:

- The coinflip winner takes the games 60%
- The coinflip loser never touches the ball in 30% of those games
- The home team only wins 51% of games that went to OT

The last stat is significant because homefield is seen as a huge advantage in the NFL. This shows that home teams win only as much as they win the coin flip. And 60% is a huge edge. When you are in control of the ball on offense then you dictate the tempo of the game which is a major advantage. A team is both offense and defense and a team should be given equal chance in winning in OT as in regulation.

From initial coinflip:

How many coinflip winners win in regulation?
How many coinflip winners have 1 more possession throughout a game?
(Opting to receive and having a 4-3 (5-4, etc.) possession in the first half and equal possessions in the second half.)
In essence regulation games don't even have equal possessions in some games. Where are the complainers for this?

Show me these studies.

If you change OT rules, people will start picking at possessions during a game. It just seems like it would happen.

 

[crownjules]

How many coinflip winners win in regulation?
How many coinflip winners have 1 more possession throughout a game?

If there was a significant advantage in winning the regular coinflip then we'd never see a team defer the kickoff (or vice versa if that were statistically advantageous). Both teams are afforded an opening half kickoff and so it is balanced. In OT, only one team gets to receive and 100% of coinflip winners elect to receive the kick.

In essence regulation games don't even have equal possessions in some games. Where are the complainers for this?

Regulation doesn't end if I score on my first possession. Why even put a time limit on OT? Just make it SD if that's the way you want it.

I'd also be perfectly fine with a tie being a tie at the end of regulation. But most sports fans don't like games that end in a draw.

 

[mugs]

Don't waste your time crownjules, I explained to him in the previous thread why regulation time is fair and none of his questions are relevant.

You can lead a horse to water...

 

[Adrenaline]

Don't waste your time crownjules, I explained to him in the previous thread why regulation time is fair and none of his questions are relevant.

You can lead a horse to water...

You explained nothing in the other thread really. All my questions are relevent as teams can have 1 more possession in regulation and if they win by 7 points or less then that 1 extra possession helped them.

If you can't win in regulation deal with the OT rules.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

You explained nothing in the other thread really. All my questions are relevent as teams can have 1 more possession in regulation and if they win by 7 points or less then that 1 extra possession helped them.

If you can't win in regulation deal with the OT rules.

WTH? The team that loses the regulation coin flip still gets the ball after the half (there is no "extra possession" for the winning flip), and the team that wins the regulation coin flip doesn't automatically win the game if they score on the initial possession.

Are you seriously reading the stuff you're writing? This is beyond nonsensical.

 

[Adrenaline]

If there was a significant advantage in winning the regular coinflip then we'd never see a team defer the kickoff (or vice versa if that were statistically advantageous). Both teams are afforded an opening half kickoff and so it is balanced. In OT, only one team gets to receive and 100% of coinflip winners elect to receive the kick.

The team receiving the opening kickoff has the potential to have an extra possession for the whole game. For OT, you have a defense and special teams that need to get you the ball back. They need to play like they have been.

Regulation doesn't end if I score on my first possession. Why even put a time limit on OT? Just make it SD if that's the way you want it.

I'd also be perfectly fine with a tie being a tie at the end of regulation. But most sports fans don't like games that end in a draw.

You have 60 minutes to decide a football game, if you can't then you are allotted 15 more minutes of sudden death. It is simple, play the game you prepared for and execute.

Watching a tie happen in any sport is a waste of my time. It is a reason why I did not watch college football for years.

 

[Adrenaline]

WTH? The team that loses the regulation coin flip still gets the ball after the half (there is no "extra possession" for the winning flip), and the team that wins the regulation coin flip doesn't automatically win the game if they score on the initial possession.

Are you seriously reading the stuff you're writing? This is beyond nonsensical.

There is a possibility for an extra possession if you receive the opening kickoff.

Do you watch football?

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

There is a possibility for an extra possession if you receive the opening kickoff.

Do you watch football?

Do you watch football? The team that loses the opening coin flip gets the ball after the half. Thus, it is balanced. There is no such balance in OT. The team that wins the OT coin flip has the statistically proven advantage. If they score, it's game over. The loser of the coin flip gets no possession, thus, unbalanced.

Also, sometimes the team that wins the regular flips elects to kickoff, yet they never elect to do so in OT. Why is this? Why would a team give up an "extra possession" by electing to kick if they won the opening flip? Oh that's right...there isn't any. It's balanced because the kicking team gets the ball after the half, thus evening things out.

I think I am going to listen to mugs' advice and just stop now. Facts and statistics apparently have no effect on you. :\

 

[mugs]

There is a possibility for an extra possession if you receive the opening kickoff.

Do you watch football?

There is the possibility of an extra possession if you don't receive the opening kickoff as well. Do you watch football?

Both teams have an equal opportunity to end up with one more possession than the other team in regulation. Both teams have an equal opportunity; that is why the regulation time rules are fair (as I explained to you two weeks ago). It's not the outcome that determines whether it's fair, it's the opportunities.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Some people have floated the idea of "first to 6" (or alternatively, first to 4, so that two safeties or FG + safety counts as a win) for overtime. Seems like a good idea to me. Go for the quick win with a TD drive, or kick the field goal and risk letting the other team drive for a TD?

Though I don't think the current OT rules are as bad as people say. From the way people talk about it you'd think the coin flip winner was guaranteed a victory. But not only are they not guaranteed a victory, but if they get held to a three and out they end up with worse field position than the other team.

 

[darkxshade]

You explained nothing in the other thread really. All my questions are relevent as teams can have 1 more possession in regulation and if they win by 7 points or less then that 1 extra possession helped them.

If you can't win in regulation deal with the OT rules.

This is why we need to bring back :confused;

 

[Adrenaline]

Do you watch football? The team that loses the opening coin flip gets the ball after the half. Thus, it is balanced. There is no such balance in OT. The team that wins the OT coin flip has the statistically proven advantage. If they score, it's game over. The loser of the coin flip gets no possession, thus, unbalanced.

Also, sometimes the team that wins the regular flips elects to kickoff, yet they never elect to do so in OT. Why is this? Why would a team give up an "extra possession" by electing to kick if they won the opening flip? Oh that's right...there isn't any. It's balanced because the kicking team gets the ball after the half, thus evening things out.

I think I am going to listen to mugs' advice and just stop now. Facts and statistics apparently have no effect on you. :\

I am asking for regulation studies since they have all of these OT studies. Where are they? It is called sudden death for a reason.

Let me break this down with lets say Colts and Pats with Colts getting kickoff:

Colts
Pats
Colts
Pats
Colts

Halftime

Pats
Colts
Pats
Colts
Pats
Colts

See the extra possession? It is a possibility, not a given to happen.

Why not just give 5 possessions call halftime then 5 more possessions and call the game using no clock but a playclock then?

There is no 100% fair way to do regulation and OT in an NFL game. Everything will happen by chance. I am still waiting for facts and statistics for regulation.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

Some people have floated the idea of "first to 6" (or alternatively, first to 4, so that two safeties or FG + safety counts as a win) for overtime. Seems like a good idea to me. Go for the quick win with a TD drive, or kick the field goal and risk letting the other team drive for a TD?

This is a good alternative. Something needs to be done...the current NFL OT system is statistically proven to be unbalanced and unfair. It's only a matter of time. Many are still clinging to "tradition" as their only defense of the current broken system, but all it will take is another Colts/Chargers debacle, and that will be that.

Could you imagine a Super Bowl going to OT, and one of the teams never even gets to touch the ball en route to losing The Big Game because they lost the OT coin flip? What a travesty that would be...

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

I am asking for regulation studies since they have all of these OT studies. Where are they? It is called sudden death for a reason.

Let me break this down with lets say Colts and Pats with Colts getting kickoff:

Colts
Pats
Colts
Pats
Colts

Halftime

Pats
Colts
Pats
Colts
Pats
Colts

See the extra possession? It is a possibility, not a given to happen.

Why not just give 5 possessions call halftime then 5 more possessions and call the game using no clock but a playclock then?

There is no 100% fair way to do regulation and OT in an NFL game. Everything will happen by chance. I am still waiting for facts and statistics for regulation.

What kind of junk math are you trying to peddle here? Where is your consideration for TIME OF POSSESSION or TURNOVERS? Heck, even SAFETIES. Each possession is not a static value...some are longer, some are shorter. Your arguments have no merit. You just took one game and listed who has possession, without even bothering to see how time of possession or turnovers might have affected how often someone had the ball. CLOCK MANAGEMENT and AVOIDING TURNOVERS/CAPITALIZING ON TURNOVERS are a huge part of any NFL team's strategy. DENYING POSSESSIONS and TURNOVER +/- RATIO are core, fundamental football principles. This is basic NFL 101 stuff here, but I see that such simple things elude you, or you aren't interested in even taking them into consideration.

Under the current regulation rules, each team is given a fair shot to have equal possessions. What they do with that shot is up to them. In OT, no such fair opportunity is provided. If you win the OT flip, you are heavily statistically favored to win the game on that first drive.

If a kick returner fumbles a kickoff and the kicking team recovers, are you going to try and chalk that up as evidence as to why regulation coin flips are "unfair" because they got an extra possession from a turnover?

 

[Adrenaline]

There is the possibility of an extra possession if you don't receive the opening kickoff as well. Do you watch football?

I was aware of this and thought I may have pointed this out in the other thread, not sure and don't care to look. I was pointing out that it can happen, yet I don't hear statistics brought up on it.

Here you go, using Pats and Colts

C, P, C, P

Half

P, C, P, C, P

Either way you can have an extra possession.

Both teams have an equal opportunity to end up with one more possession than the other team in regulation. Both teams have an equal opportunity; that is why the regulation time rules are fair (as I explained to you two weeks ago). It's not the outcome that determines whether it's fair, it's the opportunities.

Equal opportunities don't always occur, thus I am asking for a study on this since you all have access to studies on OT.

Each team has a 50% chane to get the ball on the coin toss in regulation. It is called sudden death OT.

 

[Adrenaline]

What kind of junk math are you trying to peddle here? Where is your consideration for TIME OF POSSESSION or TURNOVERS? Heck, even SAFETIES. Each possession is not a static value...some are longer, some are shorter. Your arguments have no merit. You just took one game and listed who has possession, without even bothering to see how time of possession or turnovers might have affected how often someone had the ball.

Under the current regulation rules, each team is given a fair shot to have equal possessions. What they do with that shot is up to them. In OT, no such fair shot is provided. If you win the OT flip, you are heavily statistically favored to win the game on that first drive.

If a kick returns fumbles a kick and the kicking team recovers, are you going to try and chalk that up as evidence as to why regulation coin flips are "unfair" because they got an extra possession from a turnover?

There is a chance to have an equal amount of possessions, but how often does it happen? I am asking for studies. Not EVERY NFL game will be 100% fair. Not every OT will be 100% fair either, that is the point.

This past weekend the Redskins got the ball, lost it and the Saints got the ball and scored. It doesn't always happen, but it can.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

There is a chance to have an equal amount of possessions, but how often does it happen? I am asking for studies. Not EVERY NFL game will be 100% fair. Not every OT will be 100% fair either, that is the point.

This past weekend the Redskins got the ball, lost it and the Saints got the ball and scored. It doesn't always happen, but it can.

The equal opportunity is PROVIDED in regulation...what each team does with that opportunity is up to them, but it exists. The equal opportunity is NOT PROVIDED in OT. It is baffling that you fail (or refuse) to see this glaring discrepancy.

I'm done. The facts and statistics are there. Facts > meely-mouthed mumbo-jumbo.

 

[Adrenaline]

The equal opportunity is PROVIDED in regulation...what each team does with that opportunity is up to them, but it exists. The equal opportunity is NOT PROVIDED in OT. It is baffling that you fail (or refuse) to see this glaring discrepancy.

I'm done. The facts and statistics are there. Facts > meely-mouthed mumbo-jumbo.

Provided, yes. A given, no. Are there statistics on this? It will not always be 100% fair.

Sudden death OT is not bad. The team just needs to stop the other team from scoring. Make the other team punt. They did it during regulation. These are professionals, they should be able to do this.

 

[MotF Bane]

Monday Night Football!

Ravens @ Packers.

Anyone else?

 

[Q]

Monday Night Football!

Ravens @ Packers.

Anyone else?

Hope the Packs stick it to the Ravens.

 

[MotF Bane]

Good move to challenge that one.

 

[Cdubneeddeal]

Fuckin take out Flacco already.

 

[Q]

www.nfl.com/live
Steelers vs. Browns.

Come on Steelers!

 

[MotF Bane]

Steelers/Browns is Week 14.