NFL Football Best Bet of the Week - Week 9

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TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
Do it!

UPDATE 11/8/04

This is embarrassing

Top 3: 1-1 (tonights minny/indy OVER 58.5 pending)
Overall: 2-6 (above game pending)

Season:
top 3: 10-7 (1 game pending) = 59%
overall: 27-24-1 (1 game pending) = 53% ---- Hey it's still enough to be ahead money-wise if you best the same amount on every game --- just barely
 
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TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
Originally posted by: blurredvision
min @ ind OVER 58.5 - I don't feel too confident about this pick though :(.
Click to expand...

Ya, the "experts" I have in my spreadsheet each week all agreed it would be over. However I'm a tad hesistant based on Moss and Robinson being gimpy. If Moss is declared out then no way is it over and I'd take Indy -6.0 over the Vikes as well.
 
M

mchammer187

Diamond Member
Nov 26, 2000
9,114
0
76
PHI -1.5 @ PIT (i think this is gonna end up being a pick game)

INDY / MIN over

and KC -3 @ TB
 
9

95SS

Golden Member
Nov 30, 2003
1,630
0
76
KC -3 @ TB

Followed closely by IND/MIN OVER 58.5 (Even if Moss doesn't play)
 
K

konichiwa

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,077
2
0
How come no dogs in your poll?

CHI and TB are my two plays for this week, all you betting on KC check it out:

1. Teams following a big dog win (IND @ KC +1.5 last week, KC 45-35) who are favored the next week (KC -3 @ TB) are less than 40% ATS
2. TB is following up a bye week with a game at home
3. 98% of the betting is on KC for this game. The line hasn't moved...you think bookies are going to pay 98% out on this bet?

TB +3!
 
T

TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
Originally posted by: konichiwa
How come no dogs in your poll?

CHI and TB are my two plays for this week, all you betting on KC check it out:

1. Teams following a big dog win (IND @ KC +1.5 last week, KC 45-35) who are favored the next week (KC -3 @ TB) are less than 40% ATS
2. TB is following up a bye week with a game at home
3. 98% of the betting is on KC for this game. The line hasn't moved...you think bookies are going to pay 98% out on this bet?

TB +3!
Click to expand...

Ya I'm scared of the KC and the min/ind over b/c they seem like sucker bets. Like you said, Vegas is taking all this money in on these games b/c they know stats that we can only dream of knowing. I'm still sticking to both of them though b/c Peyton and Co should put up around 35 by themselves leaving on 24 points for minny to get, which even without Moss should be attainable. As far as KC goes, I just think their O-line will maul TB and Holmes is red hot for another couple of TDs.
 
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CChaos

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2003
1,586
0
0
I'll go with the hometown boys and say the G-Men are gonna whip up on Da Bears.
 
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hpkeeper

Diamond Member
Jun 30, 2000
4,036
0
0
C'mon... no one is picking the Vikings and Colts to go over 58.5 points???? my god... the chiefs and the Colts did that last week, and Green Bay and the colts did that. Admittedly the Vikes got killed last week... but still... you get manning and culpepper in a tossing match and that's a high scoring game.


*edit* and KC -3 @TB?????


that means that KC would have to lose to tampa bay... that's a little insane IMO. Chiefs are hot right now.
 
A

Argo

Lifer
Apr 8, 2000
10,045
0
0
As giants fan, I wanna say nyg over chi, -9. However, my brain tells me to pick KC over TA -3. Probably the safest pick.
 
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TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
Originally posted by: hpkeeper
C'mon... no one is picking the Vikings and Colts to go over 58.5 points???? my god... the chiefs and the Colts did that last week, and Green Bay and the colts did that. Admittedly the Vikes got killed last week... but still... you get manning and culpepper in a tossing match and that's a high scoring game.


*edit* and KC -3 @TB?????


that means that KC would have to lose to tampa bay... that's a little insane IMO. Chiefs are hot right now.
Click to expand...

-3 means the Chiefs are spotting TB 3 points so they have to win by more than 3 points to win the bet.
 
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konichiwa

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,077
2
0
Originally posted by: Mwilding
KC over TB is the easiest pick all year...
Click to expand...

Prepare to eat crow. Jurevicius is comig back, that's a big boost for the TB offense. They're coming off a bye week and are playing a rolling team at home, they're going to be pumped up. TB's defense is one of the most underrated in the league in my opinion and KC is a turnover machine.

Not to mention, like I said:

So far this season, teams who have won straight up (i.e. not concerning the spread) when they are an underdog and then are put as the favorite the next week have gone 7-9-1 against the spread in the 2nd week. That's the situation KC is in.

Furthermore when this second game is on the road (as it is in this instance) teams in KC's situation are 0-2 against the spread. I could see TB winning this one straight up. KC is floundering.
 
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marcello

Golden Member
Aug 30, 2004
1,141
0
0
nyg -9 vs chi

The Giants are for real and the Bears had trouble with my Niners last week and are starting a rookie QB......
 
GasX

GasX

Lifer
Feb 8, 2001
29,033
6
81
Originally posted by: konichiwa
Originally posted by: Mwilding
KC over TB is the easiest pick all year...
Click to expand...

Prepare to eat crow. Jurevicius is comig back, that's a big boost for the TB offense. They're coming off a bye week and are playing a rolling team at home, they're going to be pumped up. TB's defense is one of the most underrated in the league in my opinion and KC is a turnover machine.

Not to mention, like I said:

So far this season, teams who have won straight up (i.e. not concerning the spread) when they are an underdog and then are put as the favorite the next week have gone 7-9-1 against the spread in the 2nd week. That's the situation KC is in.

Furthermore when this second game is on the road (as it is in this instance) teams in KC's situation are 0-2 against the spread. I could see TB winning this one straight up. KC is floundering.
Click to expand...
Galloway and Jurevicous are both questionable. Even if they play the won't be 100%. Not to mention Brad Johnson is a horrible quarterback... Their running game is mediocre. That means they will only score 30 points on the Chiefs. They'll lose the footrace! :p
 
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TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
FYI for the KC vs TB game:

TB run D is #21 allowing 118 yds/gm -- KC run O is #1 with 168 yds/gm
KC points per game O is #2 with 29.4 -- TB D is tied for #10 in pts/gm with 17.7 == avg 23.55
KC is tied for #27 in pts/gm allowing 25.3 -- TB O is #28 in pts/gm with 15.6 == avg 20.45

Pretty close call but I like KC's run offense to take control of the game.
 
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TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
More facts that I find fun:

Indy avgs 31.1 pts/gm (#1) --- Minny gives up 23.1 pts/gm (#23)
Minny avgs 26.1 pts/gm (#5) --- Indy give up 25.4 pgs/gm (#29)

So if Indy's averge is 31.1 and minny's D is below average then that should indicated Indy scoring more than 31.1. Same deal with Minny's average per game and Indy's D being WAY below average. Their average combined score is 57.2 so the over looks pretty good (of course Moss is the X-factor here)
 
Muadib

Muadib

Lifer
May 30, 2000
18,084
897
126
Originally posted by: TheNinja
Originally posted by: blurredvision
min @ ind OVER 58.5 - I don't feel too confident about this pick though :(.
Click to expand...

Ya, the "experts" I have in my spreadsheet each week all agreed it would be over. However I'm a tad hesistant based on Moss and Robinson being gimpy. If Moss is declared out then no way is it over and I'd take Indy -6.0 over the Vikes as well.
Click to expand...
Don't be too sure about that. The colts have no D, and the Vikes can still go deep.
 
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