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Next week's debate will decide the election

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
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There is no bigger moment for Romney or Obama.

If Obama comes out anywhere near as flat again there is a very real chance that the post debate bump Romney is seeing solidifies even more. It wouldn't guarantee a Romney victory, he still needs to win Ohio/Florida/Virginia, but it does make what was once a very remote possibility a lot more realistic.

On the other hand, if Obama can come out with a strong debate performance that hammers away all of the key talking points he forgot to mention the last time around then this race is effectively over.

There simply aren't enough moments left in the campaign for Romney to get the sizable boost that he needs to overtake Obama. The last debate is foreign policy and frankly that's not deciding this election. The jobs report that comes at the end of the month is also unlikely to be dramatically positive or negative.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
There is no bigger moment for Romney or Obama.

If Obama comes out anywhere near as flat again there is a very real chance that the post debate bump Romney is seeing solidifies even more. It wouldn't guarantee a Romney victory, he still needs to win Ohio/Florida/Virginia, but it does make what was once a very remote possibility a lot more realistic.

On the other hand, if Obama can come out with a strong debate performance that hammers away all of the key talking points he forgot to mention the last time around then this race is effectively over.

There simply aren't enough moments left in the campaign for Romney to get the sizable boost that he needs to overtake Obama. The last debate is foreign policy and frankly that's not deciding this election. The jobs report that comes at the end of the month is also unlikely to be dramatically positive or negative.
Didn't you already declare this race over about a month ago? I'm pretty sure you did. How many times are you going to declare it's over?
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
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Didn't you already declare this race over about a month ago? I'm pretty sure you did. How many times are you going to declare it's over?
I think if last week's debate demonstrated anything, it's that this race clearly isn't going to be over until it's actually over. For whatever reason, it seems pretty clear that single events can result in pretty substantial voter movement. My theory is that a lot of people aren't as strongly tied to either candidate as we might think. But whatever the reason, if one debate can take what looked like an almost sure thing for Obama and turn it back into a serious race, the next debate can result in big changes as well...as can the next one. Or anything else that might come up before election day.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
9,184
1,325
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No. Not over. First you have the debates, then Election Day, then the recount, then the Supreme Court decission, and then and only then is it over.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
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I think if last week's debate demonstrated anything, it's that this race clearly isn't going to be over until it's actually over. For whatever reason, it seems pretty clear that single events can result in pretty substantial voter movement. My theory is that a lot of people aren't as strongly tied to either candidate as we might think. But whatever the reason, if one debate can take what looked like an almost sure thing for Obama and turn it back into a serious race, the next debate can result in big changes as well...as can the next one. Or anything else that might come up before election day.
It's pretty clear that oneofthese days is another hyper-partisan that loves to shrilly exclaim that the debate/election/whatever is over and his side won so there's no reason for further debate. He was wrong the last 2 or 10 times he said it and he'll be wrong again as will his hyper-partisan supporters.

My opinion hasn't changed in almost a year that Obama will retain the presidency. The biggest debate is whether Republicans will control the Senate.
 

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,677
482
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I think the first debate already decided it. All Romney has to do at this point is either get a draw or not lose terribly in the next two debates. He's still getting dividends from the last debate in the polls.

I also think it will be uniquely difficult to beat Romney in a debate by a huge margin, considering how freely and frequently he denies his own past statements and ideas.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
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Next weaks debate means nothing other than it will create more devision of the American people , Obummer wins the election with eas. Romney could win every state but obummer still wins hands down . This election cycle was all about keeping PAUL out . A network like CBS would have tried to help Paul and been reporting on him . Never happened. Why would CBS do this. Because they feel Paul is no threat by their own reporting they stated this . Instead CBS HELPED romney . Makes no sense. CBS is no loger owned by gene autrey a true American , Now it run by enimies of the people
 
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Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
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My grandson was taught the pledge by me with flag substituted with the word constitution. Well last week in school they told the kids they were going to teach them the pledge. My grandson said I already know the pledge. Teacher asked him to recite it . He did she said that was vary . good but you made a mistake . My grandson said I was thought not to use the flag word as its incorrect, Teacher said by who . He replied by my grandpa, My grandpa also told me that you teachers would try to to make me subservient to your false knowledge . She said really . She asked what else did he tell you , He told me that inorder to get along I would have to learn what you teach . and I will he said . But I will also learn the truth. Well this didn't go well . My daughter was called in and was brow beaten by these cave people. She was really pissed at me . She was really reapin me a new one and my grandson stopped her by saying Moma stop it grandpa is right. He said to her. What does the flag stand for . What does the constitution mean . My daughter looked at me and said Oh my god what have you done . My grandson said mommmy grandpa did good he was right are they not tring to make me subservient. She thought and finely said well he maybe is correct . But stick to what he taught you than and learn as they teach. He said I will mommy. But I will also search for truth. She said good enough
 

lotus503

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2005
6,502
1
76
My grandson was taught the pledge by me with flag substituted with the word constitution. Well last week in school they told the kids they were going to teach them the pledge. My grandson said I already know the pledge. Teacher asked him to recite it . He did she said that was vary . good but you made a mistake . My grandson said I was thought not to use the flag word as its incorrect, Teacher said by who . He replied by my grandpa, My grandpa also told me that you teachers would try to to make me subservient to your false knowledge . She said really . She asked what else did he tell you , He told me that inorder to get along I would have to learn what you teach . and I will he said . But I will also learn the truth. Well this didn't go well . My daughter was called in and was brow beaten by these cave people. She was really pissed at me . She was really reapin me a new one and my grandson stopped her by saying Moma stop it grandpa is right. He said to her. What does the flag stand for . What does the constitution mean . My daughter looked at me and said Oh my god what have you done . My grandson said mommmy grandpa did good he was right are they not tring to make me subservient. She thought and finely said well he maybe is correct . But stick to what he taught you than and learn as they teach. He said I will mommy. But I will also search for truth. She said good enough
He said all of that eh?

Lol
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
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I think the first debate already decided it. All Romney has to do at this point is either get a draw or not lose terribly in the next two debates. He's still getting dividends from the last debate in the polls.
That's mainly because there hasn't been another big event in the news cycle to break the momentum. If Obama wins or even ties the next debate, that changes the story and make people less likely to just consider the first debate. And if Romney wins, that will help his momentum even more.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
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He said all of that eh?

Lol
Yes he did . I been talking about him here for 5 years now . This child is special. He has other knowledge none that know him understand. His brother is like all kids his cousin is like all kids . He is not like others Never ever cries even as an infant. Well he did observe that cring sometimes works in getting your way learned from younger brother. . He seen this and tried to make it work for himself . I put an end to that.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
It's pretty clear that oneofthese days is another hyper-partisan that loves to shrilly exclaim that the debate/election/whatever is over and his side won so there's no reason for further debate. He was wrong the last 2 or 10 times he said it and he'll be wrong again as will his hyper-partisan supporters.

My opinion hasn't changed in almost a year that Obama will retain the presidency. The biggest debate is whether Republicans will control the Senate.
Right now I feel that it's more likely the Democrats will control the Senate than the Presidency, but the margins for both aren't what I'd call gigantic. I think the difference with the Senate though is that it's hard for a single big event to shake things up as much.

Clearly things can still change a lot before election day, but right now I think the four options, from most to least likely are Obama/Democratic Senate, Romney/Democratic Senate, Obama/Republican Senate, Romney/Republican Senate. But that assumes the chances of winning the Senate and the Presidency are independent for Republicans and Democrats when it seems like that they're at least a little intertwined.
 

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,677
482
126
That's mainly because there hasn't been another big event in the news cycle to break the momentum. If Obama wins or even ties the next debate, that changes the story and make people less likely to just consider the first debate. And if Romney wins, that will help his momentum even more.
I'm not so sure. It seems like there must have been a significant number of undecideds just sitting somewhere in the middle, and apparently the debate finally made them commit.

It was probably an easier task to get them to finally commit than it will be to reverse their opinion at this point. They were apparently indecisive for a long time, though, so who knows.
 
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buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
I think the first debate already decided it. All Romney has to do at this point is either get a draw or not lose terribly in the next two debates. He's still getting dividends from the last debate in the polls.
My guess is that people that haven't been paying attention, paid attention at the first debate. Obama got undressed and bent over in front of 70 million people. A blowout like that has never occurred in a modern presidential debate. Most debates don't move the needle significantly but this one was particularly lopsided (historically I'd say).

Obama has the last 4 years to defend while Romney has less ground to lose because he hasn't been in office. Romney's "borders" are easier to defend in other words.

If Obama comes out like Biden I think that backfires.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
My guess is that people that haven't been paying attention, paid attention at the first debate. Obama got undressed and bent over in front of 70 million people. A blowout like that has never occurred in a modern presidential debate. Most debates don't move the needle significantly but this one was particularly lopsided (historically I'd say).
The problem for Romney is that the debate doesn't seem enough all by itself. However good his debate performance was, people aren't very likely to still be moving his way after a week and a half based on the debate...and he still needs to get more support to have a better than even chance of winning. Like I said in a different thread, the debate performance definitely helped Romney a lot, but he had a lot of ground to make up.

I also suspect a lot of the movement his way has been because of coverage of the debate and not just the debate itself. The story now, even in the "liberal" media, is that Obama was terrible and Romney was on fire...and the more that gets repeated, the better it is for Romney. There hasn't been another big election story to replace it. Another good debate performance could put Romney over the top since it continues the story, but a bad (or even tied) debate performance will turn the story into a one-hit-wonder story. "Romney's debate performance was excellent" is a much better story than "Romney's FIRST debate performance was excellent".
Obama has the last 4 years to defend while Romney has less ground to lose because he hasn't been in office. Romney's "borders" are easier to defend in other words.

If Obama comes out like Biden I think that backfires.
That's true, but Obama also has positive things he can point to in his record which is something Romney can't use...so it's a double edged sword.
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
The problem for Romney is that the debate doesn't seem enough all by itself. However good his debate performance was, people aren't very likely to still be moving his way after a week and a half based on the debate...and he still needs to get more support to have a better than even chance of winning. Like I said in a different thread, the debate performance definitely helped Romney a lot, but he had a lot of ground to make up.
I don't think the polls are all that accurate anyway. The amount of people that say they are democrat in most of these polls skews toward the Democrats. I don't think there is anyway that the turnout ratios will be as favorable towards the Dems this year as they were in 2008. Most of the polls have a higher ratio of Dems responding vs Republicans than last election.
I also suspect a lot of the movement his way has been because of coverage of the debate and not just the debate itself. The story now, even in the "liberal" media, is that Obama was terrible and Romney was on fire...and the more that gets repeated, the better it is for Romney.
Could be but there were 70 million people who tuned in and saw it first hand.
That's true, but Obama also has positive things he can point to in his record which is something Romney can't use...so it's a double edged sword.
It's much easier to attack a position than defend one in debates and Obama has more to defend.

Another thing that is in Romney's favor is that people aren't going to suddenly decide to vote for Obama at this stage of the game. Obama, nationally, is sitting at 46% RCP average, that is a horrible position to be in for him a few weeks out of the election. In contrast Bush was at 48.9% on the same date in 2004.

Being undecided about a sitting president is more negative than being undecided about a challenger.
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
0
0
I think the thread title here is not far from the truth.

Despite Romney's recent momentum, I think Obama can still put this away pretty easily as long as he SHOWS UP for the next two debates. He needs to be alive, engaged and to tackle Romney's dishonesty and radicality head on. If he does this, he'll gain back at least half of what he lost last week.

Part of why I feel this way is looking at his approval/disapproval numbers. They are still quite good. I think what we have seen in the last week is something we haven't seen at all this cycle: people actually wanting to vote for Romney and not against Obama. This is because Obama allowed him to look very positive last week. If Obama can take that away, we'll be back close to where we were before.

It's put up or shut up time for the president. And in a way, that's a good thing.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,916
172
106
-snip-
If Obama comes out like Biden I think that backfires.
Yeah.

I think Obama needs to be careful. I recall Gore coming out and acting like an arrogant azz in his 1st debate with GWB, then in the 2nd he overcompensated and was too submissive. Obama needs to guard against overcompensating for his last performance. Following up Biden's rude performance with another by Obama may not go over too well.

Fern
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
I don't think the polls are all that accurate anyway. The amount of people that say they are democrat in most of these polls skews toward the Democrats. I don't think there is anyway that the turnout ratios will be as favorable towards the Dems this year as they were in 2008. Most of the polls have a higher ratio of Dems responding vs Republicans than last election.

Could be but there were 70 million people who tuned in and saw it first hand.

It's much easier to attack a position than defend one in debates and Obama has more to defend.

Another thing that is in Romney's favor is that people aren't going to suddenly decide to vote for Obama at this stage of the game. Obama, nationally, is sitting at 46% RCP average, that is a horrible position to be in for him a few weeks out of the election. In contrast Bush was at 48.9% on the same date in 2004.

Being undecided about a sitting president is more negative than being undecided about a challenger.
Why wouldn't they change their mind? Even if the polls aren't perfectly accurate, they still registered a major shift towards Romney (and away from Obama) as a result of one debate that wasn't really as much about content as style. Anyone who changed their mind based on the debate is clearly not a very dedicated voter for either side...so the end result is that Obama's soft support became Romney's soft support. It seems unlikely to me that people willing to switch to Romney at this stage of the election are now locked into voting for him.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
Yeah.

I think Obama needs to be careful. I recall Gore coming out and acting like an arrogant azz in his 1st debate with GWB, then in the 2nd he overcompensated and was too submissive. Obama needs to guard against overcompensating for his last performance. Following up Biden's rude performance with another by Obama may not go over too well.

Fern
I definitely agree. Obama could certainly benefit from calling Romney on more (or really any) of what he says, but it needs to sound more like Reagan's "there you go again" than Biden's "that's a bunch of...stuff".
 

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