Next Generation Nintendo Console (Wiii)

[MODEL3]

Actually I think that the safer prediction regarding the next generation consoles falls with the Wii.
As we all know the Wii is the most successful current gen console, but still hasn't got the third party support of XBOX360 & PS3.There are many reasons and 3 major reasons are the following:

1. in the beggining, when most of the third parties listen the final spec of Wii and general the business plan of Nintendo they said No freakin way (their Loss)

2. The track record of Nintendo's 2 last generations (N64 & GCN) wasn't so good (In relation with the competition of cource).

3. All, they wanted (or already have started) to invest in the next generation engines (in order to learn, understand and prepare for the future).After all the Wii was the only non Direct X 9.1/10 level of hardware and all the others (XBOX360,PS3,PC) was a group with similar specs (well I mean, in order to port a game from one to another)

I suspect now that all (I suppose I have to exclude EA since they said at launch that the Wii is going to capture 1/3 of the market) they have learn their lessons, so I suppose that the willingness to support Wii next is going to be higher.
All Nintendo has to do is make their decision a little bit easier.

99% of the third parties they understand the level of XBOX360/PS3 hardware and have of cource engines, tools, games etc.Wouldn't be sweet from a business perspective the next gen Wii to have the same level of power/features as the XBOX360 & PS3, so the developers can port with easy (wishful thinking) their engines, tools, games?

After all PS3 is projected to have a long life (freakin 400$ in Q3 2009 anyone?) so the PS3 & the Wii next can form another group (in order to influence the third parties away from PC and next gen XBoX360 group).

So here are the specs for the next gen Wii:
Remember the concept is very simple:
XBOX360/PS3 level hardware (but with the capability (my wish) to run these games at 1080p instead 720p and retain all the quality per pixel) with Wii type controler:

1,5-2X the power of the XBOX360 CPU (It depends from the architecture - if it is classic PowerPC based 1,5X is sufficient, if it is something a little more exotic (even if it is PowerPC based, but non classic) 2X becauce the developers should first learn to adapt to the architecture.

1G RAM (twice the Ram for all those lovely textures at 1080P)

2-3X the power of RSX/Xenos (again for all those lovely 1080P visuals, again it depends on the architecture)

All I can say without getting into the technical details, is that from a financial point of view the cost for Nintendo to make the next gen Wii is going to be similar or a little less in relation with Wii (2006 cost) if it has only DVD-ROM (DVD-9 media as those used by XBOX360) or a little more if it has BD like PS3 (in the date I'm forecasting the next gen Wii to launch the FOB price of a BD drive is going to be much lower than to date, actually the FOB price of a 4X BD-Rom right now is less than 50$ FOB price (LiteOn iHOS104), or more if it includes and HDD.

Regarding the launch date, this is more difficult to predict than the actual specification level, since we have a console (Wii) that is selling so many units as it's opponents (XBOX360, PS3) combined, without a drop in price since it's launch in Q4 2006, freakin unbelievable.

We heard recent rumours that the sales of the Wii have drop a little (but nothing to serious except in Japan) even if the situation go worse Nintendo can do the following:

Q4 09 Wii 199$ (maybe with motion plus controller bundle from now on)
Q4 10 Wii 149$ (if the sales keep decline)
Q4 11 Wii 99$ (if the sales keep decline and still make money on the Wii hardware)
Q4 12 next gen Wii

Of cource this is the worst case scenario for the Wii regarding price drops.

But I suspect something else, I suspect that the people at Nintendo are getting a
little arrogant and greedy and they start thinking that they should have 150$ net profit per console on the hardware and that they changed the people perception for the console business and that they expanded the market and that all the above was intentional and projected and strategically planned but none of the above is accurate, they just made a clever business decision and they got lucky, sometimes the time is right, you never know.

Actually what I'm proposing now for the next gen Wii is essentially what Nintendo did with the Wii in 2006 (which is a very logical business decision) except everybody though it was too early for such a move (the graphical fidelity of the Wii was not acceptable enough in contrast with the level of the 360, the motion controller scheme was not mature enough etc.)

So with Nintendo being arrogant and greedy they may launch the next Wii in Q3-Q4 2011
I am not suggesting Q4 2010 mainly for 3 reasons:

1. Never Nintendo before had less than 5 years cycle (and on much less susseful consoles)
(not counting handhelds which is entirely different thing)

2. In order to have the same profit on the hardware level (in the DVD-ROM scenario) as they had with Wii in 2006 they will have to do it at 2011 (2,2 nm) or beyond

3. it doesn't seem right (I really can't find a single reason that will force Nintendo to release a next gen Wii in 1 year and 1 quarter from now, not with a so successful current console)

 

[RESmonkey]

These specs are just what you are expecting?

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: RESmonkey
These specs are just what you are expecting?

Actually what I am expecting is close to XBOX360 level of power but my wish for 1080p suggest these specs (please work "butterfly effect"?)

 

[R Nilla]

What do you mean by "still hasn't got the third party support of XBOX360 & PS3?" Are you talking about quality or quantity? Certainly the Wii doesn't have the same quality of games available as the 360 or PS3 (or maybe I should say "quantity of quality") but I disagree if you think the Wii doesn't have plenty of third-party games available.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: R Nilla
What do you mean by "still hasn't got the third party support of XBOX360 & PS3?" Are you talking about quality or quantity? Certainly the Wii doesn't have the same quality of games available as the 360 or PS3 (or maybe I should say "quantity of quality") but I disagree if you think the Wii doesn't have plenty of third-party games available.

1. If you read carefully my post, I said the Wii doesn't have so much third party support as XBOX360 / PS3 (so I didn't say "the Wii doesn't have plenty of third-party games available"

2. Also Even if Wii had the same level of third party support as XBOX360 / PS3 (which it has not) then it would be less than what somone would expect (because Wii has nearly 45-50% of the current generation market and the logical thing someone to expect is to have better third party support than it's rivals.

 

[R Nilla]

Originally posted by: MODEL3
1. If you read carefully my post, I said the Wii doesn't have so much third party support as XBOX360 / PS3 (so I didn't say "the Wii doesn't have plenty of third-party games available"

I didn't interpret what you said as "doesn't have...available" nor is that what I suggested.

2. Also Even if Wii had the same level of third party support as XBOX360 / PS3 (which it has not) then it would be less than what somone would expect (because Wii has nearly 45-50% of the current generation market and the logical thing someone to expect is to have better third party support than it's rivals.

What are you basing this off of?

It's not scientific, but a quick look at Metacritic shows a listing of
523 games for the PS3,
756 for the Wii, and
841 for the 360.
Obviously these lists are limited to American releases.

If you look at the list of games for each system on Wikipedia, you will find
PS3 - 695 (557 disc, 138 PSN)
360 - 931 (695 disc, 236 XBLA)
Wii - 1267 (1002 disc, 265 WiiWare).
These lists appear to include international and future releases. Again, dubious data at best.

Note that the 360 has been out longer while the Wii and PS3 launched at about the same time.

I think you are mistaken if you believe the Wii does not have as much support as the 360 or PS3.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: R Nilla
What are you basing this off of?

It's not scientific, but a quick look at Metacritic shows a listing of
523 games for the PS3,
756 for the Wii, and
841 for the 360.
Obviously these lists are limited to American releases.

If you look at the list of games for each system on Wikipedia, you will find
PS3 - 695 (557 disc, 138 PSN)
360 - 931 (695 disc, 236 XBLA)
Wii - 1267 (1002 disc, 265 WiiWare).
These lists appear to include international and future releases. Again, dubious data at best.

Note that the 360 has been out longer while the Wii and PS3 launched at about the same time.

I think you are mistaken if you believe the Wii does not have as much support as the 360 or PS3.

Oh we are starting a numbers game?

As You point out These lists include releases in the Future not now (H2 9009 & H1 & H2 2010) (I was reffering until now) of cource seeing all the success of Wii the last 2,5 years developers had to support it $$$ (from now and on).

Also These lists include releases from First parties and from EA (which I exclude saying that it was the only that had equal support for all 3 platforms)

Also I am not sure if the Wii list includes the Gamecube titles (compatibility) although probably not.

Don't focus on the number of games, as you can understand even if Wii had the same number of games as XBOX360/PS3 each third party has the best programmers / designers / artists working more time in XBOX360 / PS3 games

THAT'S WHY IN THE FIRST PLACE I DIDN'T SAY "MORE THIRD PARTIES GAMES" BUT I SAID "BETTER THIRD PARTY SUPPORT" (WHICH IS A MUCH MORE BROAD TERM) I WAS HOPING TO AVOID THE NUMBERS GAME IN THIS TOPIC

Why don't you focus in the actual topic theme "Next Generation Nintendo System" (I am interested in your opinion/prediction)

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: R Nilla
I didn't interpret what you said as "doesn't have...available" nor is that what I suggested.
.

so when you said the following:

Originally posted by: R Nilla
but I disagree if you think the Wii doesn't have plenty of third-party games available.

what is your suggestion?

 

[MrChad]

But I suspect something else, I suspect that the people at Nintendo are getting a
little arrogant and greedy and they start thinking that they should have 150$ net profit per console on the hardware and that they changed the people perception for the console business and that they expanded the market and that all the above was intentional and projected and strategically planned but none of the above is accurate, they just made a clever business decision and they got lucky, sometimes the time is right, you never know.

I don't see how you can call Nintendo's decisions greedy. They've made all the right moves this round and their hardware continues to sell well. Why would they lower their price point when they aren't losing sales/marketshare?

1. They made a conservative leap in hardware, building off the existing Gamecube platform. This allowed them to undercut the competition significantly while still turning a profit.
2. Realizing that Microsoft and Sony were focused on the same demographic, they focused on family friendly and casual titles, capturing a much bigger marketshare in the process.

Nintendo has a history of designing their hardware to make the games that Nintendo wants to make, not what 3rd party developers are looking for. Wii poses some unique challenges in that it 1) has less horsepower than the 360 or PS3, 2) has a unique controller scheme that doesn't port easily from other systems and 3) has a different customer base than other systems. I expect that any successor will have similar challenges, but Nintendo will still find a way to make money hand over fist.

 

[R Nilla]

Originally posted by: MODEL3
Oh we are starting a numbers game?

I have no interest in playing a numbers game, but I'm not sure how else you would evaluate the degree of third party support. Again, what evidence are you using to arrive at the conclusion that the Wii's third party support is not as good as the 360's or PS3's?

As You point out These lists include releases in the Future not now (H2 9009 & H1 & H2 2010) (I was reffering until now) of cource seeing all the success of Wii the last 2,5 years developers had to support it $$$ (from now and on).

There aren't that many future titles included, the majority is released games and I'm sure the future titles don't significantly distort the distribution between the three systems.

Also These lists include releases from First parties and from EA (which I exclude saying that it was the only that had equal support for all 3 platforms)

Also I am not sure if the Wii list includes the Gamecube titles (compatibility) although probably not.

Again, the effect on the numbers by including first-party games is probably negligible. The Wikipedia numbers DO NOT include any Gamecube, PSOne, PSP or Virtual Console games.

Don't focus on the number of games, as you can understand even if Wii had the same number of games as XBOX360/PS3 each third party has the best programmers / designers / artists working more time in XBOX360 / PS3 games

How do you know this? What is the basis for your assumption? This could be true but it could be true only because the 360 and PS3 are possibly harder to develop for. Are you saying third-party support is based on the amount of time spent developing for each system?

THAT'S WHY IN THE FIRST PLACE I DIDN'T SAY "MORE THIRD PARTIES GAMES" BUT I SAID "BETTER THIRD PARTY SUPPORT" (WHICH IS A MUCH MORE BROAD TERM) I WAS HOPING TO AVOID THE NUMBERS GAME IN THIS TOPIC

That's fine, but how are you arriving at this conclusion? What leads you to believe that third party support is better on the 360 and PS3 than Wii, especially if you are ignoring the amount of third-party games available for each system?

Why don't you focus in the actual topic theme "Next Generation Nintendo System" (I am interested in your opinion/prediction)

I don't really have much to say about this topic nor am I comfortable speculating on what the next console will be like or when it will come out. I will say I think that continuing the Wii trend of releasing new hardware that isn't bleeding edge but will support HD and perhaps be on par with the 360/PS3 makes a lot of sense. Consoles are moving in entirely new directions, especially with digital distribution entering the game, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

Originally posted by: MODEL3

Originally posted by: R Nilla
I didn't interpret what you said as "doesn't have...available" nor is that what I suggested.
.

so when you said the following:

Originally posted by: R Nilla
but I disagree if you think the Wii doesn't have plenty of third-party games available.

what is your suggestion?

Maybe I should have worded it better. The keyword in that sentence is plenty, meaning you seemed to be arguing that the Wii third-party library is relatively sparse.

 

[purbeast0]

i think all he's simply trying to say is that the Wii's good third party games are far less than the good third party games on Xbox360 and PS3, and because of that, the PS3 and Xbox360 have 'better third party support" than the Wii.

i think...

this guy is all over the place so i could be completely wrong.

but if that is what he's stating, yes i agree, and i thought that was painfully obvious at this point in the game.

and even with the good third party games on the wii, they are not selling very well and would make me think that it would only discourage third party devs from investing in making good third party games for the wii.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: MrChad
I don't see how you can call Nintendo's decisions greedy. They've made all the right moves this round and their hardware continues to sell well.

I did't call all Nintendo decisions greedy just those that involve 150$ net profit per console on the hardware level.
It's my opinion, what, are you a republican? (guys just kidding I don't know much about your political system, I am from Greece)

Yes, I said it myself also "They've made all the right moves this round and their hardware continues to sell well"

Originally posted by: MrChad
Why would they lower their price point when they aren't losing sales/marketshare?

It was (like I said) the worst case scenario (I used this scenario in order to point out that no outside factor (but only Nintendo itself) can force Nintendo to launch "Next Wii" before Q4 2012

Originally posted by: MrChad
1. They made a conservative leap in hardware, building off the existing Gamecube platform. This allowed them to undercut the competition significantly while still turning a profit.
2. Realizing that Microsoft and Sony were focused on the same demographic, they focused on family friendly and casual titles, capturing a much bigger marketshare in the process.

Nintendo has a history of designing their hardware to make the games that Nintendo wants to make, not what 3rd party developers are looking for. Wii poses some unique challenges in that it 1) has less horsepower than the 360 or PS3, 2) has a unique controller scheme that doesn't port easily from other systems and 3) has a different customer base than other systems.

I agree with all the above

Originally posted by: MrChad
I expect that any successor will have similar challenges, but Nintendo will still find a way to make money hand over fist.

Like they used to do with N64 & Gamecube (just kidding)
When you say "I expect that any successor will have similar challenges" what exactly do you mean in the hardware level, be more specific, come on, be more daring!

 

[R Nilla]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
i think all he's simply trying to say is that the Wii's good third party games are far less than the good third party games on Xbox360 and PS3, and because of that, the PS3 and Xbox360 have 'better third party support" than the Wii.

i think...

this guy is all over the place so i could be completely wrong.

but if that is what he's stating, yes i agree, and i thought that was painfully obvious at this point in the game.

That's what I was trying to clarify in my first post. If that's really what he's trying to say then I fully agree, but it doesn't seem like that's what he's getting at.

and even with the good third party games on the wii, they are not selling very well and would make me think that it would only discourage third party devs from investing in making good third party games for the wii.

This is another key factor that I think he is missing. Nintendo could completely dominate console sales (more than they already do) but that doesn't necessarily mean anything to third-party developers if none of those consumers are buying games.

Even when third party devs try to develop games aimed at "hardcore" players, they generally still fall flat (No More Heroes, Mad World, Deadly Creatures, Conduit, etc.).

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
i think all he's simply trying to say is that the Wii's good third party games are far less than the good third party games on Xbox360 and PS3, and because of that, the PS3 and Xbox360 have 'better third party support" than the Wii.

i think...

but if that is what he's stating, yes i agree, and i thought that was painfully obvious at this point in the game.

Although I agree with your statemement, I am not trying to say that nor I am comparing number of games in order to come to a conclusion (that's how I roll

I used the term "third party support for a reason" which doesn't include factors such if games are going to be good or sales is going to be good (what includes are human & money resources)

Originally posted by: purbeast0
this guy is all over the place so i could be completely wrong.

thanks for the warm welcome to the forums

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: MODEL3

Originally posted by: purbeast0
i think all he's simply trying to say is that the Wii's good third party games are far less than the good third party games on Xbox360 and PS3, and because of that, the PS3 and Xbox360 have 'better third party support" than the Wii.

i think...

but if that is what he's stating, yes i agree, and i thought that was painfully obvious at this point in the game.

Although I agree with your statemement, I am not trying to say that nor I am comparing number of games in order to come to a conclusion (that's how I roll

I used the term "third party support for a reason" which doesn't include factors such if games are going to be good or sales is going to be good (what includes are human & money resources)

Originally posted by: purbeast0
this guy is all over the place so i could be completely wrong.

thanks for the warm welcome to the forums

well it's the truth heh.

and since that isn't what you are trying to say, i have absolutely 0 idea what this thread is about.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: R Nilla

and even with the good third party games on the wii, they are not selling very well and would make me think that it would only discourage third party devs from investing in making good third party games for the wii.

This is another key factor that I think he is missing.

No I am not missing this key factor (do I look someone that could miss it?) I completely agree.
Where did I say that opposite of that in my topic?

Originally posted by: R Nilla
Again, what evidence...

Sorry I don't have evidence, I guess i am gulty after all.

Originally posted by: R Nilla
There aren't that many future titles included, the majority is released games and I'm sure the future titles don't significantly distort the distribution between the three systems

Define "many"

Also, majority is above 50%, right?

Oh, You are sure? Then I have to trust you.

Originally posted by: R Nilla
Again, the effect on the numbers by including first-party games is probably negligible. The Wikipedia numbers DO NOT include any Gamecube, PSOne, PSP or Virtual Console games

I said it myself that propably the Wikipedia numbers DO NOT include any Gamecube (although Wii is backward compatible with Gamecube titles)
regarding the PSOne, PSP or Virtual Console games, I was going to say that I have a feeling that you are pissed at me but you didn't said Virtual Boy so I misunderstood?

Originally posted by: R Nilla
How do you know this? What is the basis for your assumption? This could be true but it could be true only because the 360 and PS3 are possibly harder to develop for. Are you saying third-party support is based on the amount of time spent developing for each system?

No what I am saying is that in the real world support means foremost human & money resources

 

[R Nilla]

I guess I'm not really sure what you're trying to say. You have claimed several times that you believe the Wii has less third-party support than the 360 and PS3 but have provided no evidence or reasoning to logically reach that conclusion. You started your topic with that assumption and gave three reasons for why you believe it happened but those all presume that your assertion is true to begin with.

There's really nothing else to discuss regarding this specific tidbit until you provide an argument for your assumption.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: R Nilla
I guess I'm not really sure what you're trying to say. You have claimed several times that you believe the Wii has less third-party support than the 360 and PS3 but have provided no evidence or reasoning to logically reach that conclusion.

Like I told you many times before, for me the term "third-party support" is not about number of games but about how third parties allocate their money & human resources.
If you are expecting me to tell you how much money each company spend per console or how many people in each company (and how many hours) worked for each console then yes I am sorry I can't do that (but nobody else in the world can do it also)
You have your opinion which I respect and I have mine.

Originally posted by: R Nilla
You started your topic with that assumption and gave three reasons for why you believe it happened but those all presume that your assertion is true to begin with.

I started the topic with that assumption which true or not , doesn't change the topic which is "my prediction about the next gen Wii".

In my next gen scenario, I said that Nintendo can have (with my proposed specs) an even greater compelling business plan, in order to get more third party support than Wii had in relation with the competition (XBOX360/ PS3)

Let's say for a moment that the Wii had better support until now than XBOX360/ PS3
what harm can the extra support do to Nintendo?

Also, in my next gen scenario the proposed specs I gave are based on many factors not on the factor how many games there are for each console (Wii/XBOX360/ PS3)

 

[R Nilla]

Originally posted by: MODEL3
Like I told you many times before, for me the term "third-party support" is not about number of games but about how third parties allocate their money & human resources.
If you are expecting me to tell you how much money each company spend per console or how many people in each company (and how many hours) worked for each console then yes I am sorry I can't do that (but nobody else in the world can do it also)

If it can't be determined then it's ridiculous to make a claim about it since you admittedly have no way of knowing whether it's true or not. It also is most certainly not a matter of opinion but let's just leave it at that and agree to disagree. It's crystal clear at this point where we both stand.

I started the topic with that assumption which true or not , doesn't change the topic which is "my prediction about the next gen Wii".

In my next gen scenario, I said that Nintendo can have (with my proposed specs) an even greater compelling business plan, in order to get more third party support than Wii had in relation with the competition (XBOX360/ PS3)

Let's say for a moment that the Wii had better support until now than XBOX360/ PS3
what harm can the extra support do to Nintendo?

Also, in my next gen scenario the proposed specs I gave are based on many factors not on the factor how many games there are for each console (Wii/XBOX360/ PS3)

I agree with most of what you have to say and am sorry for spending so much time nitpicking on one of your first statements, I was just killing time at work. You are correct that it ultimately doesn't effect what you discuss throughout your post. I think Nintendo already has plenty of third-party support, but with more capable hardware I think there's a better chance that we'll see more games for the system worth playing that don't have the word "party" in them.

 

[DivideBYZero]

"course"

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: R Nilla
If it can't be determined then it's ridiculous to make a claim about it since you admittedly have no way of knowing whether it's true or not. It also is most certainly not a matter of opinion but let's just leave it at that and agree to disagree. It's crystal clear at this point where we both stand.

It is impossible for someone to determine this, and of cource it is ridiculous to make a claim that it can prove it
but it is not ridiculous what I did, which was to say that in my personal understanding of the games industry (which includes hundred of factors which I cannot write in a topic) my verdict is that the Wii hasn't got better third party support than XBOX360/PS3, you see, since nobody can prove those things it is a matter of judgement, and I exposed mine.

I really think is far more crucial to have good judgement than to know many informations (of cource the one without the other is meaningless)
I realy hate this era we are living - the "era of Information"

Originally posted by: R Nilla

I agree with most of what you have to say and am sorry for spending so much time nitpicking on one of your first statements, I was just killing time at work. You are correct that it ultimately doesn't effect what you discuss throughout your post. I think Nintendo already has plenty of third-party support, but with more capable hardware I think there's a better chance that we'll see more games for the system worth playing that don't have the word "party" in them.

Thanks, thanks for your replies

 

[biggestmuff]

How many games do you own for each system?

 

[AbAbber2k]

I came into this thread thinking Nintendo had made some kind of announcement regarding future console plans. I was let down.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: AbAbber2k
I came into this thread thinking Nintendo had made some kind of announcement regarding future console plans. I was let down.

Sorry i didn't mean to trick you here.

I should have written in the Topic Title:

Next Generation Nintendo Console (Wiii) prediction

instead

Nintendo announces Next Generation Nintendo Console (Wiii)


but I guess I didn't do any of them

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: MODEL3

Like I told you many times before, for me the term "third-party support" is not about number of games but about how third parties allocate their money & human resources.
If you are expecting me to tell you how much money each company spend per console or how many people in each company (and how many hours) worked for each console then yes I am sorry I can't do that (but nobody else in the world can do it also)
You have your opinion which I respect and I have mine.

well this is where your point gets screwed up about not having to do with numbers.

the amount of money and human resources that third parties put into a game are based upon how many copies (numbers) and how much money (again, numbers) they think they will make from it.

and the fact that now, 3 years after the launch, you see less and less good third party games on the wii, does indeed have to do with the fact that there aren't many games being sold or money to be made from the third parties.

since there is less money to be made on these third parties from game sales, of course the third parties are going to put less money and resources into developing them.