Next Generation Geforce/Radeon cards when?

[Mars999]

I have a friend who wants to buy my Radeon 5870, and looking to sell it. Problem is the only thing I see that is really a decent upgrade is the Geforce 580 or some crossfire solution?

I am a bit leery of using SLI/X-fire as I hear they stutter? Is this still an issue this late in the game with multi-GPUs?

So, I begin to wonder is the Radeon 7K or Geforce 600 series out next year sometime? If so what time frame or best guess? Any leaked info on this yet?

Thanks!

 

[nitromullet]

Probably Q4 of 2011.

 

[daRkKon]

q4? no way amd has their strategy "new cards every 6 months"

so the next time will be summer for the next generation of AMD/ATI cards

 

[Arkaign]

q4? no way amd has their strategy "new cards every 6 months"

so the next time will be summer for the next generation of AMD/ATI cards

I'm predicting a slowdown between the next major architectures, I think we'll see a truly new gen no sooner than Sept/Oct, but more likely Nov/Dec.

 

[Qbah]

I'd say in 12-18 months. So roughly 1H 2012.

 

[borisvodofsky]

I'm predicting a slowdown between the next major architectures, I think we'll see a truly new gen no sooner than Sept/Oct, but more likely Nov/Dec.

Definately wait for the 69xx refresh, faster probably cheaper, and cooler.

 

[nitromullet]

"new cards every 6 months"

Not since 2005-2006 has that been the plan. NV and AMD have not really been doing 6-month refresh cards for a while now.

The only time you have seen a shorter than a year interval between generations is when the preceding generation was late.

NVIDIA G80 (2006) -> G92 (2007) -> GT200 (2008) -> GF100 (2010 late) -> GF110 (2010)

AMD/ATI - R600 (2007 late) -> RV670 (2007) -> RV770 (2008) -> Evergreen (2009) -> Southern Islands (2010)

 

[Genx87]

Q3 2011 unless there is manufacturing problems.

 

[Daedalus685]

Q3 2011 unless there is manufacturing problems.

There are whispers at beyond 3d that 28nm might be falling behind schedule. Some pessimists say it might not be ready until 2012... Lets hope not!!

 

[Lonyo]

Q3 2011 unless there is manufacturing problems.

This.
The real next gen cards can't really happen until we have a new process node for making the GPUs, which is dependent on TSMC managing to get their 28nm node going, like Genx87 says.
Basically we're at the mercy of TSMC.

 

[RavenSEAL]

Yep, as said above...Q3 PROBABLY.

 

[taltamir]

I'm predicting a slowdown between the next major architectures, I think we'll see a truly new gen no sooner than Sept/Oct, but more likely Nov/Dec.

its not a hard prediction to make, both TSMC and Foundery company had to scrap their major 32nm process' after long delays, and said they will then focus on 28nm... except it has also been delayed.
nvidia planned to go from their 40nm GTX4## series to a 32nm process, when it was canceled they went ahead and decided to come up with a slightly improved 40nm GPU which came out as the GTX5##.
For AMD the same happened, they wanted to go from their 5### series 40nm to a 32nm, but it was canceled; along with the delays in 28nm they ended up coming up with an unplanned 40nm improvement which came out as the HD6###

Those current gen cards are using the same process and were not planned much in advance, so they had minimal improvement, and are all you can expect to see for a year. Possibly a little more because I doubt that either TSMC or Foundery Co. will be able to get 28nm on schedule. (they will get them eventually, I just don't expect them to do so on schedule)

 

[Idontcare]

its not a hard prediction to make, both TSMC and Foundery company had to scrap their major 32nm process' after long delays, and said they will then focus on 28nm... except it has also been delayed.
nvidia planned to go from their 40nm GTX4## series to a 32nm process, when it was canceled they went ahead and decided to come up with a slightly improved 40nm GPU which came out as the GTX5##.
For AMD the same happened, they wanted to go from their 5### series 40nm to a 32nm, but it was canceled; along with the delays in 28nm they ended up coming up with an unplanned 40nm improvement which came out as the HD6###

Those current gen cards are using the same process and were not planned much in advance, so they had minimal improvement, and are all you can expect to see for a year. Possibly a little more because I doubt that either TSMC or Foundery Co. will be able to get 28nm on schedule. (they will get them eventually, I just don't expect them to do so on schedule)

AMD's 28nm GPU's are coming from GloFo or TSMC?

I understand 28nm Bobcat/Ontario shrink is coming from TSMC, but did GloFo get any discreet GPU business at 28nm?

I hope so, its the only thing that will light an actual fire under the asses of TSMC executive management (the guys in charge of R&D budget, not the guys tasked with developing leading edge nodes on a shoestring budget).

 

[Wreckage]

AMD's 28nm GPU's are coming from GloFo or TSMC?

I understand 28nm Bobcat/Ontario shrink is coming from TSMC, but did GloFo get any discreet GPU business at 28nm?

I hope so, its the only thing that will light an actual fire under the asses of TSMC executive management (the guys in charge of R&D budget, not the guys tasked with developing leading edge nodes on a shoestring budget).

I have yet to read anything that points to GloFo making GPU's. Nothing. Nada. Zip. In fact when AMD bought ATI that's all anyone could talk about was the foundries making graphics chips. Still to this day.....ничего.

 

[taltamir]

AMD's 28nm GPU's are coming from GloFo or TSMC?

I understand 28nm Bobcat/Ontario shrink is coming from TSMC, but did GloFo get any discreet GPU business at 28nm?

I don't really know which one of them will get what.
IIRC I saw online rumors for both, but nothing reliable so I don't really know.

I hope so, its the only thing that will light an actual fire under the asses of TSMC executive management (the guys in charge of R&D budget, not the guys tasked with developing leading edge nodes on a shoestring budget).

Fire has already been lit: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20101213175351.html

Apparently, TSMC intends to build yet another giant production facility called fab 16 that will cost it whopping $10 billion dollars and which TSMC intends to start building in 2014, reports China Economic News Service. Unlike current fab 12 and fab 14, the fab 16 will consist of five phases and will take many years to become fully operational. At present exact details about the fab are not known and TSMC naturally does not comment on market rumours, but it is projected that after the fab 16 is fully utilized, TSMC’s total capacity will be approximately 600 thousand 300mm wafers per month.

Combined capacity of fab 12 and fab 14 is scheduled to exceed 240 thousand 300mm wafers per month by the end of this year. When the fab 15 becomes fully operational, TSMC's combined 300mm manufacturing capacities will be over 340 thousand 300mm wafers per month, which will let the company to maintain its position of the world's largest contract maker of semiconductors.

 

[Idontcare]

Fire has already been lit: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20101213175351.html

^ that's production capex (capital expenditure), entirely different budget allocation from R&D.

I assure you the 28nm development guys aren't seeing any of that. None of the R&D guys for any of the nodes gets to see those billions, that's all for the production and manufacturing division. (which is good in terms of ramping yields and capacity, doesn't speak to node capability and deliver date)

edit: I guess we have this from Dirk to go on, not a shabby source:

“The first intersection of our AMD GPUs and Globalfoundries are on the 28nm. We haven’t been public with respect to any timing there,” said Dirk Meyer, chief executive officer of AMD, during a quarterly conference call with financial analysts.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...d_28nm_Graphics_Chips_at_Globalfoundries.html

 

[taltamir]

nice find idontcare.

 

[Dark Shroud]

That coincides with rumors about AMD's 28nm series being either full GloFo or some mix of GloFo & TSMC.

Either way unless something else happens we can assume the usual Q3 2011 for AMD at least. What Nvidia actually does is anyones guess.

 

[nyker96]

I think amd is rumored to use both GF and TSMC 28nm. So I'd think it's reasonable to say one of these players will have it ready for Q3/2011. But since AMD is already design a 28nm cayman, the current 69xx is just a feature reduced version of the original, I think amd already got a 28nm design at hand, barring unforeseen events, I'd bet they will have the card ready as soon as the process is ready. again Q3/2011 sounds reasonable.

 

[GundamF91]

It sounds like the HD6xxx and GTX6xx are probably going to be a "lost generation"? They were suppose to be 32nm cards, and more powerful than old generation, but now AMD and nVidia are effectively stuck on 40nm and making smaller leaps in performance? Maybe 7xxx/7xx will be 28nm, or maybe wont' get to it until 8xxx/8xx.

 

[OCGuy]

Q4 2011

nV supposedly has 28nm samples already. That would mean they were telling the truth when they said the issues with GF100 did not delay any other part of their roadmap.

 

[Martimus]

I thought that one of the terms of the split of Global Foundries from AMD was that AMD had to start producing at least 50% of their discrete GPUs from Global Foundries at the 32nm node, with a plan to ramp up to a higher percentage at later nodes. I don't know if this was true, but if it was I think that we can expect some of the smaller discrete dies to come from GF in 2011, while they will likely wait until the second gen 28nm parts to start producing larger dies there.

Of course, this is definitely not my expertise. I think there were some articles about the terms of their break-off in some of our earlier discussions on GF vs. TSMC though.

 

[taltamir]

It sounds like the HD6xxx and GTX6xx are probably going to be a "lost generation"? They were suppose to be 32nm cards, and more powerful than old generation, but now AMD and nVidia are effectively stuck on 40nm and making smaller leaps in performance? Maybe 7xxx/7xx will be 28nm, or maybe wont' get to it until 8xxx/8xx.

HD6xxx and GTX5xx actually.
hopefully we will really see 28nm in a year.