I'm thinking Microsoft will have 50% or more of the next gen market, Sony somewhere around 30% and Nintendo pulling up the rear, my reasoning as follows:
Nintendo is wandering in the street with it's finger up it's nose. It's screen controller/wands will look hopelessly outdated vs. the Kinect 2. It's first party IP is tired, dated and over exposed.
Sony was standing there with it's pants around it's ankles when word got out how far along Microsoft was with an Xbox 720 2013 release and whatever they were working on for a 2015 or 2016 PS4 release (unlike Microsoft, Sony appeared to be serious about their avowed next gen release timeline) was tossed aside for a far timlier and less expensive 'semi-custom' AMD solution ala the Xbox 720. Giving Microsoft a one year lead might be unavoidable, giving them a two year lead is committing console hari kari and competing in a multi-billion market with only one other real competitor is a luxury Sony doesn't enjoy in any of their other divisions.
Charlie D is saying Microsoft is sourcing it's chip across three different foundries to make sure it makes a 2013 release and that it's a bit of a touch and go at that. If it's touch and go for Microsoft with their substantial planning lead and long time and deep collaboration with AMD, fabrication physics dictate it's probably impossible for Sony to make a 2013 launch. Which is likely the reason Charlie said flat out a couple days ago on S/A Microsoft will release in 2013 and Sony in 2014.
Kinect 2 is almost certain to read facial and finger movements and accurately track several players simultaneously enabling almost endless precision gaming control possibilites and have a much shorter minimum distance requirement. Record breaking Kinect sales were driven by mothers avid for a controller that couldn't be lost, stepped on, broken or fought over. And got little Johnny and Susie off the couch. A Kinect 2 requiring only a few feet to operate in with far more precise control will have a massive advantage over any other contoller type with mothers.
Hence a scenario of Microsoft releasing it's next gen console into an essentially competitor free market voracious for new hardware and games with advanced graphics, AI and controller potential opening up a massive lead in the next gen console race, establishing the Kinect 2 as an THE controller mechanism of choice and having an extensive ecosystem to support and interact with it. It's packaging and advertising is certain to display the metro interface which by fall of 2013 will be ubiquitous and associate the Xbox 720with Windows Phone, Tablets and PCs in consumers minds.
Cost wise Microsoft has already officially committed to the low down payment/Xbox gold subscription model for the 720. This will enable it to price the 720 far closer to hardware production costs and the subscription cost will be offset by most buyers no longer needing cable programming (or any other set top streaming service) as the services and programming Xbox live is bringing to the table will suffice for most. Makes it extremely easy to justify buying an Xbox needing only $99 down.
That's a stunning number of advantages Microsoft is bringing to the next gen wars in 2013.
Sony might still be saying publicly it's in no hurry to bring out a new console, but there's no way they're not scrambling desperately to come up with some way to stay competitive with Microsoft and release a console a.s.a.p.
What possible feature(s) could Sony promise to make it worthwhile to wait a year to keep people from just going with the Xbox?
Given that years head start I see Sony being a perennial and somewhat distant second and Nintendo a very distant third in the next gen console race.
Nintendo is wandering in the street with it's finger up it's nose. It's screen controller/wands will look hopelessly outdated vs. the Kinect 2. It's first party IP is tired, dated and over exposed.
Sony was standing there with it's pants around it's ankles when word got out how far along Microsoft was with an Xbox 720 2013 release and whatever they were working on for a 2015 or 2016 PS4 release (unlike Microsoft, Sony appeared to be serious about their avowed next gen release timeline) was tossed aside for a far timlier and less expensive 'semi-custom' AMD solution ala the Xbox 720. Giving Microsoft a one year lead might be unavoidable, giving them a two year lead is committing console hari kari and competing in a multi-billion market with only one other real competitor is a luxury Sony doesn't enjoy in any of their other divisions.
Charlie D is saying Microsoft is sourcing it's chip across three different foundries to make sure it makes a 2013 release and that it's a bit of a touch and go at that. If it's touch and go for Microsoft with their substantial planning lead and long time and deep collaboration with AMD, fabrication physics dictate it's probably impossible for Sony to make a 2013 launch. Which is likely the reason Charlie said flat out a couple days ago on S/A Microsoft will release in 2013 and Sony in 2014.
Kinect 2 is almost certain to read facial and finger movements and accurately track several players simultaneously enabling almost endless precision gaming control possibilites and have a much shorter minimum distance requirement. Record breaking Kinect sales were driven by mothers avid for a controller that couldn't be lost, stepped on, broken or fought over. And got little Johnny and Susie off the couch. A Kinect 2 requiring only a few feet to operate in with far more precise control will have a massive advantage over any other contoller type with mothers.
Hence a scenario of Microsoft releasing it's next gen console into an essentially competitor free market voracious for new hardware and games with advanced graphics, AI and controller potential opening up a massive lead in the next gen console race, establishing the Kinect 2 as an THE controller mechanism of choice and having an extensive ecosystem to support and interact with it. It's packaging and advertising is certain to display the metro interface which by fall of 2013 will be ubiquitous and associate the Xbox 720with Windows Phone, Tablets and PCs in consumers minds.
Cost wise Microsoft has already officially committed to the low down payment/Xbox gold subscription model for the 720. This will enable it to price the 720 far closer to hardware production costs and the subscription cost will be offset by most buyers no longer needing cable programming (or any other set top streaming service) as the services and programming Xbox live is bringing to the table will suffice for most. Makes it extremely easy to justify buying an Xbox needing only $99 down.
That's a stunning number of advantages Microsoft is bringing to the next gen wars in 2013.
Sony might still be saying publicly it's in no hurry to bring out a new console, but there's no way they're not scrambling desperately to come up with some way to stay competitive with Microsoft and release a console a.s.a.p.
What possible feature(s) could Sony promise to make it worthwhile to wait a year to keep people from just going with the Xbox?
Given that years head start I see Sony being a perennial and somewhat distant second and Nintendo a very distant third in the next gen console race.
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