Next gen AMD/ATi Southern Islands by Christmas? Any guesstimates of performance yet?

[dug777]

The rumour mill says SI was taped out in April, and knowing nothing about anything to do with the industry, does that mean we are likely to see SI before Christmas?

I presume since it appears to be 40nm again, there should be limited process issues to address which should help them, and Anand seemed to suggest they are pretty deadly serious about their schedule of new products these days in his awesome RV870 background article.

I suppose until mid-range and low-range 'Fermi' arrives from nVidia, AMD/ATi are probably in no tearing hurry as they currently have the entire 'sub GTX 470' DX11 market to themselves?

Is it possible that SI will only come out at the high-end, given no DirectX feature changes (or are there? Is DX11.1 real?), and then an entire product refresh for Northern Islands on a smaller/cooler/cheaper process in 2011?

 

[Idontcare]

The rumour mill says SI was taped out in April, and knowing nothing about anything to do with the industry, does that mean we are likely to see SI before Christmas?

Quite possible, unless they need to do 6 respins or some such.

Didn't Cypress tape out April'ish timeframe of 2009 and debut at end of Sept?

 

[Grooveriding]

S.I. is supposed to be a hybrid of part of what N.I. will be and what the 58XX series currently is.

Going on that, it will definitely offer more than your standard refresh, which is usually the same chip tweaked or put out on a smaller process for a nominal performance jump.

As per ATI it will come out this fall and will be an offering to hold us over until 28nm is ready for a full release of N.I.

Who knows what performance will be like. Going on general video card cycles, we'll likely see about 150% the performance of a 5870 in S.I. and near 200% when N.I. hits in 2011. But who knows.

 

[Kuzi]

Quite possible, unless they need to do 6 respins or some such.

Didn't Cypress tape out April'ish timeframe of 2009 and debut at end of Sept?

Yeah IDC, I think ATI had running Cypress samples internally by April/May 2009.

But if S.I is really going to be a 40nm part, then I would expect performance to be 20-25% faster than a 5870 at best. That would make it slightly faster than a GTX480, and it should still end up much smaller than Fermi (420mm^2?).

 

[at80eighty]

Who knows what performance will be like. Going on general video card cycles, we'll likely see about 150% the performance of a 5870 in S.I. and near 200% when N.I. hits in 2011. But who knows.

you mean 200% for the NI v/s 5870 or SI / 5870 w/ driver improvements?

 

[HumblePie]

Anyone know if they are adding sideport in for SI or NI? I would love to have a multi GPU card without micro stuttering issues.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

If this is true nvidia will be in a world of hurt. Just when they caught up ATI drops the hammer. It's a business though and I wouldn't expect anything else. ATI not only got off the canvas they hopped up and landed a haymaker.

 

[OCGuy]

I would say anyone who guestimates performance is pulling it out of thier ass. 🙂

I expected a non "SI" refresh well before Xmas. Basically something like an overclocked 5870 being sold as a new "stock" card. (4890ish).

 

[cbn]

Anyone know if they are adding sideport in for SI or NI? I would love to have a multi GPU card without micro stuttering issues.

I hope this is what they end up doing.

Maybe add shared frame rendering to the drivers also?

 

[bunit]

SI Guestimates are 20-30% over 5870 via Charlie @ Semiaccurate + rumors from Chinese chip sites (chiphell). They've/he's been right before, so yeah. Either way it'll place ATI at the top of the single GPU category (most likely at least). This is probably before driver enhancements too, so we could potentially a bigger increase than that as well.
There's a new uncore (NI) but the shaders/memory (Cypress) are the same. It's very much a last-minute hybrid kind of part because the silicon fabs have been failing, massively. They won't need many respins unless something goes majorly wrong with the new parts, because most of it is recycled, and they're very familiar with the process by now. 2 or 3 will be sufficient, most likely.
September is possible, but early/mid October is more likely.
SI is almost 100% going to be out before Christmas, as NI is slated for Q2 2011 so yeah.
NI will probably be a beast, seeing as it will be on a new process and it's completely new architecture - but nobody knows.
Maybe Nvidia has something up their sleeves for early 2011 - but for 2010 it looks like ATI will be fighting back decently.

Performance margins aren't great by any means but they're enough to keep things interesting. They're not in line with most of the recent patterns we've seen lately but that's mostly due to the hybrid nature (40nm) of the 'refresh'. But because of the marginal performance gains, that means that price will like be priced 'right'. Top of Line: Probably at $400 or $450 (like with previous generations) to undercut the GTX480 with better performance + thermals. OR ATI could go the price gouging route and match it at $500, where it would still be the better buy over the Nvidia, but still be overpriced in my opinion. Let's hope for the sake of all of us, that they price it at 5870 prices, so $400. Less works too 😀

Chip size will be smaller then Fermi but bigger than current ATI cards because of the same 40nm process.
NI will be 28nm and if GloFo/TSMC get off their asses and make it work then Q2 2011 is a very good estimate - if not, then well we're all in for a disappointment..

This is great for all of us because it'll most likely be a better performing top of the line single card than the GTX480 and will probably be priced anywhere from $50-$100 cheaper. This will probably cause Nvidia to drop prices as well, so even if you bleed green like certain members here, its a win win for all. I can't wait.

 

[v8envy]

Yeah, that'd be fantastic. 13 months after the 58xx launched we'd be looking at roughly the same performance at the same pricepoints IF we're lucky, more $ if we're not. I can't wait!

The great video hardware drought of 2009-2011. If we geeks were the breedin' kind we'd be telling our grandkids about it.

On the bright side I might be able to sit out yet another video card generation. 4 years of my G92 being a midrange part will be some kind of a depressing record.

 

[Ranulf]

Sigh. So wait another 6 months or buy now. Meh, might as well buy now.

 

[bunit]

Yup.
This is mostly due to Fermi failing to meet expectations and silicon fabs failing to get their 28nm process ready..Like I've been saying earlier it's a bad time to buy a graphics card. But, it will be better after ATI releases Southern Islands - prices should go down and performance will go up, even if it's not by that much - It'll still be better than the current crap situation we're in.

 

[Grooveriding]

Yup.
This is mostly due to Fermi failing to meet expectations and silicon fabs failing to get their 28nm process ready..Like I've been saying earlier it's a bad time to buy a graphics card. But, it will be better after ATI releases Southern Islands - prices should go down and performance will go up, even if it's not by that much - It'll still be better than the current crap situation we're in.

This pretty much nails it. It was a good time to buy six months ago when the 5870s dropped, now it's a poor time to buy if you want top end. When S.I. drops in four months it will be the best card around again.

If you are always in the market for the high end, unless you like buying new cards every six months, it's best to stick with ATI currently if you prefer to buy once a year as they have the lead on nvidia atm. Unless nv can catch up and release a card in tandem with an ATI release that outperforms it, not worth buying nv imo.

I buy once a year, so as things stand now, ATI is ahead of the game.

 

[SolMiester]

Current 5870 top out at 950mhz....however there is room for their memory bus to improve....unless they find other weak points to improve in SI, any memory bus improvements arent going to be enough to provide 20-25% performance increases that I can think of...but that just guessing on current info!

Edit - I certainly dont think Ati is ahead of the game ....is their turn to try for the crowd perhaps....

 

[Grooveriding]

Current 5870 top out at 950mhz....however there is room for their memory bus to improve....unless they find other weak points to improve in SI, any memory bus improvements arent going to be enough to provide 20-25% performance increases that I can think of...but that just guessing on current info!

Edit - I certainly dont think Ati is ahead of the game ....is their turn to try for the crowd perhaps....

Please try and make sense when you post. They have had the crown for the past nine months, in the 5870 and 5970. The 480 has been out for a month and did not take the single card performance lead.

 

[dug777]

Current 5870 top out at 950mhz....however there is room for their memory bus to improve....unless they find other weak points to improve in SI, any memory bus improvements arent going to be enough to provide 20-25% performance increases that I can think of...but that just guessing on current info!

Edit - I certainly dont think Ati is ahead of the game ....is their turn to try for the crowd perhaps....

I would be amazed if you did think ATi was ahead, in fact I would probably assume your account had been hacked and out of concern contact the mods to rescue you! 😉

Some would argue that having had their pretty much their entire DX11 range out top to bottom for almost six months before your competitor had a DX11 card out, and maybe being in a position to launch your next gen card 6 months after theirs comes out was 'ahead of the game' 😉

As we don't know what the SI 'hybrid' of RV870/NI will look like, it's a bit early to be speculating performance I would agree.

 

[biostud]

The great video hardware drought of 2009-2011. If we geeks were the breedin' kind we'd be telling our grandkids about it.

How many games are not able to run on 58xx hardware?

As long as there's no software which demands faster videcards, I don't see a problem.

 

[scooterlibby]

Please try and make sense when you post. They have had the crown for the past nine months, in the 5870 and 5970. The 480 has been out for a month and did not take the single card performance lead.

I really don't think Nvidia was shooting for the single 'card' performance lead with the 480. Only the most rabid supporters claimed that might happen. Nvidia reasonably thought they could take the single GPU lead and they did, with the hope of putting two of those suckers in a single card. Unfortunately that was impossible given the TDP.

 

[Barfo]

I would say anyone who guestimates performance is pulling it out of thier ass. 🙂

You now know the meaning of "guesstimating", welcome to the awesome club 😀

 

[pw38]

I would say anyone who guestimates performance is pulling it out of thier ass. 🙂

lol I'm sorry I just had to laugh at that. 🙂

 

[happy medium]

The Amd refresh will be 5/10% faster then the top single Nvidia card, then be overtaken by a gtx 485 512sp's version.
Same goes for the dual gpu card. The gtx490 will overtake a 5970, then the 5970 will refresh and then be overtaken by a gtx 495 480 sp dual card.

I just don't see the Nvidia leader giving up that easy. He has a big ego.

Isn't this how it allways works?

We shall see.

 

[OCGuy]

This pretty much nails it. It was a good time to buy six months ago when the 5870s dropped, now it's a poor time to buy if you want top end. When S.I. drops in four months it will be the best card around again.

If you are always in the market for the high end, unless you like buying new cards every six months, it's best to stick with ATI currently if you prefer to buy once a year as they have the lead on nvidia atm. Unless nv can catch up and release a card in tandem with an ATI release that outperforms it, not worth buying nv imo.

I buy once a year, so as things stand now, ATI is ahead of the game.

Huh?

 

[lifeblood]

The Amd refresh will be 5/10% faster then the top single Nvidia card, then be overtaken by a gtx 485 512sp's version.
Same goes for the dual gpu card. The gtx490 will overtake a 5970, then the 5970 will refresh and then be overtaken by a gtx 495 480 sp dual card.

I just don't see the Nvidia leader giving up that easy. He has a big ego.

Isn't this how it allways works?

We shall see.

I think your estimate (5-10%) will end up closer the the actual numbers, but I'm not sure S.I. is shooting for a simple speed increase. I bet they add features like sideport to battle nVidia on the "intangible" side of the house. It seams nVidia has more "other stuff" like CUDA, 3D, and PhysX compared to Eyefinity so ATI may use S.I. to even out the list. Since S.I. appears to be more than a refresh, but is stuck on 40nm I don't see what else they could do.

 

[Grooveriding]

I really don't think Nvidia was shooting for the single 'card' performance lead with the 480. Only the most rabid supporters claimed that might happen. Nvidia reasonably thought they could take the single GPU lead and they did, with the hope of putting two of those suckers in a single card. Unfortunately that was impossible given the TDP.

I hear what you're saying, but single gpu is meaningless. Motherboards come with PCI express slots that accept video cards, not gpus. NV holds one performance slot lead, and that is the multi-card position, 480 SLI is really nice performance. I only see buying a 480 as worth it if you are getting two, otherwise spend $100 more for a 5970 if you don't want to drop the cash on 2 480s.

I like the performance 480 SLI offers, but won't drop $1k on it to see ATI's new cards later this year outperform them. I'll get a full year out of my 5870s and then get two of the new ATI cards, unless nvidia can pull a rabbit out of their hat and somehow release something faster at the same time as ATI does.