Newest State Polling.... Holy Crap edition

[winnar111]

http://www.rasmussenreports.co..._presidential_election



Florida 51/46 McCain
Ohio 50/46 McCain
Virginia 50/48 McCain
Michigan 51/46 Obama
Pennsylvania 48/45 Obama

 

[First]

The RCP spread is now 2.7% for Obama, which is a complete reversal from 9 days ago when McCain was leading by the same margin. I'd say the diminishing RNC campaign bump and the weakening economy are contributing to this complete reversal. Though I think his lead would have increased over McCain whether the economy had experienced this bad banking news or not. I don't know if it'll be enough to convince voters in Florida, but right now it's getting real tight there, going from 7+ points in McCain's favor just 9 days ago to 2 points today: http://www.realclearpolitics.c.../obama_vs_mccain/#data

 

[Butterbean]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
I think the most interesting aspect of this whole election will be how much did the new voter registration drives help Obama and how well were they measured BEFORE the election.

Ah I was reading about some of those new voter registrations last week:


Bad voter applications found
Clerks see fraudulent, duplicate forms from group

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs...icle?AID=2008809140383

 

[Butterbean]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Kudos go to Obama for leveraging the power of the internet and his skills as a community organizer

Thats "Marxist commnity organizer"

Keep in mind almost all these polls turn out having more Dems respond to them than Reps. No doubt because the Dems are home during the day.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: Butterbean

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Kudos go to Obama for leveraging the power of the internet and his skills as a community organizer

Thats "Marxist commnity organizer"

Keep in mind almost all these polls turn out having more Dems respond to them than Reps. No doubt because the Dems are home during the day.

No, it's a question of party weighing and turnout. The estimates for party based turnout ranges from plus 5 for dems (ras is usually the lowest) to plus 12 or so.

 

[Butterbean]

Yes I know about "weighting" and how many of these polls skew it to make news/hype. There are several issues that ah heck these polls over and over.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Originally posted by: Butterbean
Yes I know about "weighting" and how many of these polls skew it to make news/hype. There are several issues that ah heck these polls over and over.

And no one knows buggering like Butterbean.


edit: I repeat that I will start taking presidential polling seriously sometime around November 5th...

 

[Harvey]

Originally posted by: CallMeJoe

Originally posted by: Butterbean

Yes I know about "weighting" and how many of these polls skew it to make news/hype. There are several issues that ah heck these polls over and over.

And no one knows buggering like Butterbean.

Maybe he'd like to change it to Buggerbean. :laugh:

 

[Pepsei]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

I can only speak for the North VA urban areas (DC Metro - Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax area), but the ground game for Obama is noticeable. I've seen them at a bunch of Metro stops (blue line to VA) helping people register to vote. But of course this area is pro-Obama. You make a good point about the key figures who are also helping VA. Can anyone comment that's from southern VA (Richmond, Norfolk, etc) on what it's like in your area?

in richmond, i'm seeing the same thing, BUT richmond is quite liberal, and i saw more john kerry stickers before too, and he didn't win here.

 

[Stoneburner]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/..._co_mi_mn_wi_91421.php

Colorado (1,418 LV, 2.6%)
Obama 49, McCain 45

Michigan (1,364 LV, 2.7%)
Obama 48, McCain 44

Minnesota (1,301LV, 2.7%)
Obama 47, McCain 45

Wisconsin (1,313 LV, 2.7%)
Obama 49, McCain 42

NBC/Mason DIxon Poll - Obama 47 Mccain 45 in Florida.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Never heard of these peoples but it has Obama up 50 to 41 in Mich.

If memory serves, Michigan's electoral votes went to the Democrats in every presidential contest since 1992, so this shouldn't be too big of surprise.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: Butterbean

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Kudos go to Obama for leveraging the power of the internet and his skills as a community organizer

Thats "Marxist commnity organizer"

Keep in mind almost all these polls turn out having more Dems respond to them than Reps. No doubt because the Dems are home during the day.

Ah, the Marxist connection.

So you're claiming the the polling number's we're seeing are exaggerated in favor of the Dems. If, on election day, Obama's actual totals meet or exceed the then current polling numbers, will you state clearly, "I, Butterbean, was wrong?"

 

[JeffreyLebowski]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Obama established his ground game early, and had a lot of money in the primaries to do it with.

In crucial swing states like New Mexico (which is now almost solid blue), Obama has 4x as many field offices as McCain, packed with paid and volunteer staffers who have helped register hundreds of thousands of new Democrats to vote in the primaries and for the general.

That's why most respected pollsters are saying that Obama will almost certainly over-perform compared to his polling numbers by a few points. If a state is tied going into election day, the huge disparity in new registrations for the Democrats will put Obama over the top. And if a state is leaning Dem, it will be solid Dem when the actual numbers come in.

That's how the extended primary helped Obama greatly increase his chances of winning. When he wins on election day, that will be the second hard-fought political battle he has won this year.

It's going to come down to election day and when the voters are in their little booth they're going to vote the way they truly feel and not what was hip for a while. I expect Obama to lose some votes because when it comes down to it people do a lot of stupid shit for appearances even if it isn't what they truly believe in.

 

[Stoneburner]

More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

 

[jpeyton]

Also shows him up a few points in CO today.

It'll be nice not having to wait around for results from Ohio and Florida this year.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

And more pools out today showing the national race still just a 2-3 point divide and mccain ahead in PA, OH, and MI.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: lupi

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

And more pools out today showing the national race still just a 2-3 point divide and mccain ahead in PA, OH, and MI.

I saw a poll showing mccain ahead in Michigan, and there are several howing OH leads, but where in PA???

Besides MARist has a series of polls showing Obama leading in IA, MI, PA, and OH!

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

Marist does not have a good rep, but the pollster that showed mccain leading in MI is unknown to me and I dont see their ranking on 538. Also, the MI result showing mccain leading is an outlier. This marist poll shows a 9 point lead, and all other polls have shown some lead.


Moreover, the rasmussen national tracker ticked up 2 points suddenly for Obama... and this is a poll that doesn't do much ticking. The diageo hotline poll jumped to a 6 point lead for Obama.

There are also conflict polls in NH, one showed mccain leading, marist again shows Obama leading. Ras did a recent poll there though, and they are pretty good generally.

 

[QED]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

When you take a look at the internals of the ABC poll, you see it was weighted towards Democrats by a factor between 1.35 and 1.42-- meaning this poll is based on the expectation that for every 8 Republicans that vote there will be 11 Democrats who vote. If Obama can really get that kind of ground game advantage on election day this election won't even be close.

I guess I don't understand why it should come as a suprise that a poll shows Obama is up 9 points when Democrats outrepresent Republicans in the poll by 10 to 16 points.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: QED

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

When you take a look at the internals of the ABC poll, you see it was weighted towards Democrats by a factor between 1.35 and 1.42-- meaning this poll is based on the expectation that for every 8 Republicans that vote there will be 11 Democrats who vote. If Obama can really get that kind of ground game advantage on election day this election won't even be close.

I guess I don't understand why it should come as a suprise that a poll shows Obama is up 9 points when Democrats outrepresent Republicans in the poll by 10 to 16 points.

You realize that in a lot of polls on party ID the Democrats enjoy about a 10-15% party identification advantage, right? (especially when you take in independants that lean one way or the other)

I guess I'm not seeing the problem with the poll.

 

[piasabird]

Cant wait for the real vote where only registered voters can actually vote. You know you have to go to the polling place to cast your vote. Either way it will be interesting.

 

[QED]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: QED

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

When you take a look at the internals of the ABC poll, you see it was weighted towards Democrats by a factor between 1.35 and 1.42-- meaning this poll is based on the expectation that for every 8 Republicans that vote there will be 11 Democrats who vote. If Obama can really get that kind of ground game advantage on election day this election won't even be close.

I guess I don't understand why it should come as a suprise that a poll shows Obama is up 9 points when Democrats outrepresent Republicans in the poll by 10 to 16 points.

You realize that in a lot of polls on party ID the Democrats enjoy about a 10-15% party identification advantage, right? (especially when you take in independants that lean one way or the other)

I guess I'm not seeing the problem with the poll.

Latest Party ID polls (for registered voters):

CBS/New York Times Poll: +8% for Democrats (factor of 1.26)
Diego/Hotline Poll: +5% for Democrats (factor of 1.13)
IPSOS: +7% for Democrats (factor of 1.17)
Rasmussen: +6% for Democrats (factor of 1.18)

The 10-15% advantage Democrats emjoyed (and correspodning factor 1.40 needed to make the above poll work) hasn't been seen (at least according to Rasmussen) since May and June of this year...

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: QED

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: QED

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More polls showing Obama or tied in states like Florida , OH... but A national poll is actually the most interesting. ABC/Wapo has Obama up by 52 to 43....

When you take a look at the internals of the ABC poll, you see it was weighted towards Democrats by a factor between 1.35 and 1.42-- meaning this poll is based on the expectation that for every 8 Republicans that vote there will be 11 Democrats who vote. If Obama can really get that kind of ground game advantage on election day this election won't even be close.

I guess I don't understand why it should come as a suprise that a poll shows Obama is up 9 points when Democrats outrepresent Republicans in the poll by 10 to 16 points.

You realize that in a lot of polls on party ID the Democrats enjoy about a 10-15% party identification advantage, right? (especially when you take in independants that lean one way or the other)

I guess I'm not seeing the problem with the poll.

Latest Party ID polls (for registered voters):

CBS/New York Times Poll: +8% for Democrats (factor of 1.26)
Diego/Hotline Poll: +5% for Democrats (factor of 1.13)
IPSOS: +7% for Democrats (factor of 1.17)
Rasmussen: +6% for Democrats (factor of 1.18)

The 10-15% advantage Democrats emjoyed (and correspodning factor 1.40 needed to make the above poll work) hasn't been seen (at least according to Rasmussen) since May and June of this year...

You are right the numbers are slightly lower than before. The reason these polls are weighting Democrats more heavily in these cases as well also has to do with their ideas as to who is likely to vote. While the enthusiasm gap isn't as huge as it once was, it's still extremely large.

 

[Stoneburner]

UPdates in OP

 

[Stoneburner]

Rasmussen (!!!) has Obama up 49 to 47 in NORTH CAROLINA!

THis is why McCain has been stuntin' again.