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New USA Today/Gallup Poll

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WASHINGTON (AFP) - John Kerry (news - web sites) has overcome a 14-point deficit in a new opinion poll showing the Democratic White House hopeful in a statistical dead heat with President George W. Bush (news - web sites).

The USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll gives Kerry a 49 to 48 percent lead over Bush among likely voters three weeks before the November 2 presidential election. A prior poll had given Bush a 54 to 40 percent edge in mid-September
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Gallup Poll most biased in favor of Bush all these months. Wall St. Journal rated this poll the most defective in its methodology and rated it to be most biased for Bush. Now, even this one is showing Kerry in a slight lead. Bush is in deep trouble.
 
Wow...that must mean Kerry is really up by about 5-6 points. Gallup is skewed to the Republicans.

But that title? "Kerry surges back to tie Bush in poll" Why doesn't it say Kerry Nabs Lead?

Damn librul media.


But:

which contender expresses himself more clearly (57 to 38 percent)
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Good news for Kerry there.
 
Sorry for this newb question, but how are these polls coducted? Is it just a random survery of people distributed across the nation? And if so, does it really represent what will happen in the election since the vote of each individual person being polled may not ACTUALLY carry the same weight?
 
Originally posted by: TheVrolok
Sorry for this newb question, but how are these polls coducted? Is it just a random survery of people distributed across the nation? And if so, does it really represent what will happen in the election since the vote of each individual person being polled may not ACTUALLY carry the same weight?
Click to expand...

Yep, you're exactly right because just like in 2000, one candidate could win the popular vote while the other wins the electoral college vote. That's why I tend to pay more attention to www.electoral-vote.com. Winning in the popular polls is nice for a candidate, but this election is coming down to about 15 states where the vote really matters.

Now that said, the voting isn't quite as imbalanced as you might think, since electoral votes are based on the combination of a state's senators and representatives, which together are based on a state's population. So while certain votes may carry slightly more weight than others, its not too big a difference. You can work out the math by dividing electoralVotes/population for each state.

 
We should have a predict a new terror alert thread.

We've had schools this past week. I'm going to guess the next one has to do with Halloween candy or that they are going to target churchs next. I have to give this administration credit for coming up with clever ideas.
 
It certainly seems according to that that people are put off with bush's idiotic debating techniques. I mean, I don't hate the guy, but seriously he can't debate for sh*t, and people see that. It's not surprising that people want a more composed articulate person in control of their country. Cheney > Bush
 
Originally posted by: Achtung
Originally posted by: TheVrolok
Sorry for this newb question, but how are these polls coducted? Is it just a random survery of people distributed across the nation? And if so, does it really represent what will happen in the election since the vote of each individual person being polled may not ACTUALLY carry the same weight?
Click to expand...

Yep, you're exactly right because just like in 2000, one candidate could win the popular vote while the other wins the electoral college vote. That's why I tend to pay more attention to www.electoral-vote.com. Winning in the popular polls is nice for a candidate, but this election is coming down to about 15 states where the vote really matters.

Now that said, the voting isn't quite as imbalanced as you might think, since electoral votes are based on the combination of a state's senators and representatives, which together are based on a state's population. So while certain votes may carry slightly more weight than others, its not too big a difference. You can work out the math by dividing electoralVotes/population for each state.
Click to expand...

..............Pop. (2003)....Elect. Votes.....Pop/Elect. Vote Correct Elect. Votes

AL 4,500,752...........9.................500,083.56..............27
AK 648,818..............3.................216,272.67...............4
AZ 5,580,811..........10................558,081.10...............33
AR 2,725,714...........6.................454,285.67..............16
CA 35,484,453........55................645,171.87..............212
CO 4,550,688...........9.................505,632.00..............27
CT 3,483,372...........7.................497,624.57..............21
DE 817,491..............3.................272,497.00...............5
DC 563,384..............3.................187,794.67...............3
FL 17,019,068........27.................630,335.85.............102
GA 8,684,715..........15.................578,981.00..............52
HI 1,257,608...........4..................314,402.00...............8
ID 1,366,332...........4..................341,583.00...............8
IL 12,653,544........21..................602,549.71..............76
IN 6,195,643..........11..................563,240.27.............37
IA 2,944,062...........7..................420,580.29..............18
KS 2,723,507...........6..................453,917.83...............16
KY 4,117,827...........8..................514,728.38..............25
LA 4,496,334...........9..................499,592.67..............27
ME 1,305,728...........4..................326,432.00...............8
MD 5,508,909..........10.................550,890.90...............33
MA 6,433,422..........12.................536,118.50...............39
MI 10,079,965.........17.................592,939.12..............60
MN 5,059,375...........10................505,937.50...............30
MS 2,881,281............6.................480,213.50...............17
MO 5,704,484...........11................518,589.45...............34
MT 917,621...............3.................305,873.67...............5
NE 1,739,291............5.................347,858.20..............10
NV 2,241,154............5.................448,230.80..............13
NH 1,287,687............4.................321,921.75................8
NJ 8,638,396...........15.................575,893.07..............52
NM 1,874,614............5..................374,922.80..............11
NY 19,190,115.........31.................619,035.97.............115
NC 8,407,248...........15.................560,483.20..............50
ND 633,837..............3..................211,279.00................4
OH 11,435,798.........20.................571,789.90...............68
OK 3,511,532............7..................501,647.43...............21
OR 3,559,596............7..................508,513.71...............21
PA 12,365,455..........21.................588,831.19..............74
RI 1,076,164.............4.................269,041.00...............6
SC 4,147,152.............8.................518,394.00...............25
SD 764,309...............3..................254,769.67................5
TN 5,841,748...........11..................531,068.00..............35
TX 22,118,509.........34..................650,544.38.............132
UT 2,351,467............5...................470,293.40..............14
VT 619,107...............3..................206,369.00...............4
VA 7,386,330...........13..................568,179.23..............44
WA 6,131,445...........11..................557,404.09..............37
WV 1,810,354............5...................362,070.80..............11
WI 5,472,299...........10..................547,229.90..............33
WY 501,242...............3...................167,080.67...............3


Sorry but there is a huge difference.
 
Originally posted by: Achtung
Now that said, the voting isn't quite as imbalanced as you might think, since electoral votes are based on the combination of a state's senators and representatives, which together are based on a state's population. So while certain votes may carry slightly more weight than others, its not too big a difference. You can work out the math by dividing electoralVotes/population for each state.
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An Alaskan's vote is worth nearly three times as much as mine by proportion.

Stupid great compromise 🙁
 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
It certainly seems according to that that people are put off with bush's idiotic debating techniques. I mean, I don't hate the guy, but seriously he can't debate for sh*t, and people see that. It's not surprising that people want a more composed articulate person in control of their country. Cheney > Bush
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Alas, even the neo-cons recognize that would be suicide.
 
And Bush is up 6% in the abcnews/washington post poll. Your point is? As you yourself say conjur, polls mean nothing right? But wait, when Kerry shows a 1% lead you don't say that now do you.
 
Originally posted by: ntdz
And Bush is up 6% in the abcnews/washington post poll. Your point is? As you yourself say conjur, polls mean nothing right? But wait, when Kerry shows a 1% lead you don't say that now do you.
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Because this is from a poll that leans decidedly to the right. This is noticeable.

It's like the Washington Times posting an article uncovering a scandal in the Bush admin.
 
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: ntdz
And Bush is up 6% in the abcnews/washington post poll. Your point is? As you yourself say conjur, polls mean nothing right? But wait, when Kerry shows a 1% lead you don't say that now do you.
Click to expand...

Because this is from a poll that leans decidedly to the right. This is noticeable.

It's like the Washington Times posting an article uncovering a scandal in the Bush admin.
Click to expand...

they probably just fixed the sample group and stopped leaning republican
 
Originally posted by: ntdz
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: ntdz
And Bush is up 6% in the abcnews/washington post poll. Your point is? As you yourself say conjur, polls mean nothing right? But wait, when Kerry shows a 1% lead you don't say that now do you.
Click to expand...

Because this is from a poll that leans decidedly to the right. This is noticeable.

It's like the Washington Times posting an article uncovering a scandal in the Bush admin.
Click to expand...

they probably just fixed the sample group and stopped leaning republican
Click to expand...
In essence . . . they made it more accurate.

This polling is moot since it really cannot tell you who will actually show up and vote on Nov2 . . . but it really looks like this election will go to the aggressor over the next three weeks.

 
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