New US estimate, 40,000/day from BP oil spill

[StageLeft]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37629111

I read something to this effect yesterday elsewhere but was slightly confused by it, but here it is in any case from a second source. I take it this is after capping, but they've only capped 73k or something like that.

Their shares continue to plummet, as of yesterday BP's US traded shares were about 50% of what they were on April 22nd. Florida attorney general has asked BP to escrow $2.5B (not much money for a company that big--yet) but option to have to escrow more. I doubt it's binding, however.

I've read a few statements from Britain (at telegraph.co.uk), Britain is upset over the rhetoric. Apparently BP is a huge part of many British pensions, its dividends paying out about 1/7th of pension money or something crazy, which bodes poorly for more than one person talking of BP's bankruptcy.

 

[Acanthus]

They wont go bankrupt unless there is a massive boycott from them flubbing this cleanup.

They make more in a single year than this will cost them.

 

[charrison]

I think the report actually says up 40k, with it likely being around 25k.

 

[chin311]

they just need to stop it first. who gives a shit about money right now. won't do anyone good if it ruins the planet.

 

[charrison]

they just need to stop it first. who gives a shit about money right now. won't do anyone good if it ruins the planet.

I think they have a decent handle on it now. It is not going to completely stop until the relief wells are in place

 

[chin311]

I think they have a decent handle on it now. It is not going to completely stop until the relief wells are in place

how's that? just curious. because they say they will be able to capture "85%" of the oil coming out?

don't know if i'd trust that but im just hoping for the best.

 

[Lemon law]

Worse yet for BP, they will not simply be able to pass their higher operating costs on to the consumer, simply because other more responsible ( or lucky ) oil companies do not share their need to increase the price. Bottom line, if BP gas stations want to post 50 cents
a gallon higher prices than their competitors, BP gas stations will get no customers buying gas.

 

[Lemon law]

Worse yet for BP, they will not simply be able to pass their higher operating costs on to the consumer, simply because other more responsible ( or lucky ) oil companies do not share their need to increase the price. Bottom line, if BP gas stations want to post 50 cents
a gallon higher prices than their competitors, BP gas stations will get no customers buying gas.

 

[Thump553]

Quite a change from BP's initial estimates which, as I recall were either 100 or 1,000 barrels a day. No wonder BP wouldn't share the video feeds for so long, but it clearly establishes their lack of credibility (ie, they are a lying sack of sh*t).

BTW BP's stock popped back up 16% yesterday, the general consensus is they have been way oversold. Transocean (RIG) has fallen more than 50% since the fire and the leak, and only did a minor recovery in yesterday's boom. I'm not sure why the market is treating RIG differently-they recovered more than the rig cost in insurance proceeds and apparently have little exposure to most of the liability.

 

[Lonyo]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37629111

I read something to this effect yesterday elsewhere but was slightly confused by it, but here it is in any case from a second source. I take it this is after capping, but they've only capped 73k or something like that.

Their shares continue to plummet, as of yesterday BP's US traded shares were about 50% of what they were on April 22nd. Florida attorney general has asked BP to escrow $2.5B (not much money for a company that big--yet) but option to have to escrow more. I doubt it's binding, however.

I've read a few statements from Britain (at telegraph.co.uk), Britain is upset over the rhetoric. Apparently BP is a huge part of many British pensions, its dividends paying out about 1/7th of pension money or something crazy, which bodes poorly for more than one person talking of BP's bankruptcy.

1/7th of pension dividends from FTSE 100 companies (the 100 largest companies listed on the FTSE).
40% of BP is owned by UK investors, 40% by US investors, and BP employs more than 2x as many people in the US than it does in the UK.

Hurting BP doesn't hurt BP, it hurts everyone related to BP, including tens of thousands of US jobs, probably thousands of investors, and thousands who have pensions linked to BP (both in the US and UK I would expect).

 

[rudder]

Worse yet for BP, they will not simply be able to pass their higher operating costs on to the consumer, simply because other more responsible ( or lucky ) oil companies do not share their need to increase the price. Bottom line, if BP gas stations want to post 50 cents
a gallon higher prices than their competitors, BP gas stations will get no customers buying gas.

No, congress will increase the gasoline tax. This will reduce the money needed to be paid by BP so the consumer gets stuck with helping pay the bill... rather than BP's profits.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FTDV7O1

They are still going to get raped in court from all the businesses along the gulf coast filing suit.

 

[tk149]

1/7th of pension dividends from FTSE 100 companies (the 100 largest companies listed on the FTSE).
40% of BP is owned by UK investors, 40% by US investors, and BP employs more than 2x as many people in the US than it does in the UK.

Hurting BP doesn't hurt BP, it hurts everyone related to BP, including tens of thousands of US jobs, probably thousands of investors, and thousands who have pensions linked to BP (both in the US and UK I would expect).

I've heard that (US) state pensions hold 10% of BP.

 

[her209]

BP = Bailout Please!

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Be Patient while we By Pass the Blowout Preventor with Billowing Plumes of Bubbling Petroleum destroying Billions of Plankton

 

[Lonyo]

I've heard that (US) state pensions hold 10% of BP.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-aims-at-bp-hits-state-pensions-2010-06-09
According to this (adding up the numbers) it's at least 3.3% (100+million shares out of 3.13 billion), not 10%, but then that's probably not all of the companies exposed by various means.

 

[ElFenix]

Worse yet for BP, they will not simply be able to pass their higher operating costs on to the consumer, simply because other more responsible ( or lucky ) oil companies do not share their need to increase the price. Bottom line, if BP gas stations want to post 50 cents
a gallon higher prices than their competitors, BP gas stations will get no customers buying gas.

most companies are unable to pass on to the customer as much as people think. even if the whole industry is hit at the same time, say with an industry-wide fee, customers can make the choice to purchase less from that industry (even gasoline is long-term elastic).

 

[peonyu]

So this is a new estimate of a former new estimate which was re-estimated from another estimate but the original "professionally done" done estimate was low so they had to re-estimate that one to, and then did another estimate since a camera was installed.

Anyways I have lost tracked on the number of new estimates done by now, I just know that each time they re-estimate the leak, the 'maximum' that can leak becomes the new minimum that is leaking...All in all BP and our leaders in the Government deserve a B, a B for bullshit.

But I am certain that this leak will be the largest in history...Were getting very close to eclipsing the Mexican oil spill from a few decades back, if not already passed that number [a new re-estimate may show the BP leak has already leaked more, who knows].

 

[charrison]

how's that? just curious. because they say they will be able to capture "85%" of the oil coming out?

don't know if i'd trust that but im just hoping for the best.

The cap they have on now is working reasonably well and they have making new that will work better than the current one. I think they have a good shot of being able to get most of it.

 

[Atheus]

It has been decided in a private phonecall between the President and the Prime Minister that this dispute will be decided on the result of the football game tomorrow. You win, BP pays out compensation, you lose, they pack up their stuff and go home. Good luck!

 

[KlokWyze]

1/7th of pension dividends from FTSE 100 companies (the 100 largest companies listed on the FTSE).
40% of BP is owned by UK investors, 40% by US investors, and BP employs more than 2x as many people in the US than it does in the UK.

Hurting BP doesn't hurt BP, it hurts everyone related to BP, including tens of thousands of US jobs, probably thousands of investors, and thousands who have pensions linked to BP (both in the US and UK I would expect).

Very good point. Not an investor by any means, but I have been watching the BP stock value, stories, etc. There is no way BP would really even falter from this catastrophe. They make plenty of money, huge profit margins and they are horrible @ even pretending to care. LOL.

 

[Nemesis 1]

The lies being told are just utterly fantasticly hugh . By my own calculations and I had to know these things . Given the pressure of 7,500psi and the ocean pressure of 2000psi pushing against the 7500 psi in the well. on a 12" pipe the amount spilled already is 250,000,000 gallons this is a conserative numbers . Lieing bastereds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRjgMPoCdD8&feature=related

 

[Nemesis 1]

The cap they have on now is working reasonably well and they have making new that will work better than the current one. I think they have a good shot of being able to get most of it.

You sir are out of touch with reality.

 

[Nemesis 1]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37629111

I read something to this effect yesterday elsewhere but was slightly confused by it, but here it is in any case from a second source. I take it this is after capping, but they've only capped 73k or something like that.

Their shares continue to plummet, as of yesterday BP's US traded shares were about 50% of what they were on April 22nd. Florida attorney general has asked BP to escrow $2.5B (not much money for a company that big--yet) but option to have to escrow more. I doubt it's binding, however.

I've read a few statements from Britain (at telegraph.co.uk), Britain is upset over the rhetoric. Apparently BP is a huge part of many British pensions, its dividends paying out about 1/7th of pension money or something crazy, which bodes poorly for more than one person talking of BP's bankruptcy.

that escrow of 2,5 billion is the amount BP was going to hand out as Dividens

 

[nonlnear]

they just need to stop it first. who gives a shit about money right now. won't do anyone good if it ruins the planet.

LOL

This is America where the only thing anybody cares about is liability, and the best thing to happen to the legal profession (which - counting credentials - happens to include the majority of elected officials) is the destruction of the world - as long as liability can be assigned.

 

[werepossum]

Interesting story in Rolling Stone (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/111965?RS_show_page=0) says that is the upper range of the lower end estimates, that they didn't include the high-end estimates because the team could not agree on a magnitude.

"The upper bound from the plume group, if it had come out, is very high," says Timothy Crone, a marine geophysicist at Columbia University who has consulted with the government's team. "That's why they had resistance internally. We're talking 100,000 barrels a day."

The median figure for Crone's independent calculations is 55,000 barrels a day – the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez every five days. "That's what the plume team's numbers show too," Crone says. A source privy to internal discussions at one of the world's top oil companies confirms that the industry privately agrees with such estimates. "The industry definitely believes the higher-end values," the source says. "That's accurate – if not more than that." The reason, he adds, is that BP appears to have unleashed one of the 10 most productive wells in the Gulf. "BP screwed up a really big, big find," the source says. "And if they can't cap this, it's not going to blow itself out anytime soon."

By anyone's calculations this thing is accelerating rather than slowing down. This raises a truly scary thought - what if one or even two relief wells don't drop the pressure enough to cap this well?

Even worse - what if one of the relief wells hits a close but unconnected pocket and experiences the same catastrophe?