New updates on the Iranian election.

[Lemon law]

To somewhat blow my own horn, I predicted that the Iranian election would not be easily resolved by force and it would have wide ranging changes in Iranian thinking.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...n.html?ref=global-home

Just when it looked like a done deal that the Grand Ayotollah had won, a very very important group of Iranian clerics are calling the election illegitimate. It has to be a huge blow to the overly autocratic Iranian Grand Ayatollah who is assumed to infallible. And as the Iranian election and its aftermath may end up being not only the first real crisis to his long rule, and perhaps its going to end up with his removal.

With the Iranian legislature also getting into the act, siding with the protesters, and maybe ready to say no to the draconian punishment the Grand Ayatollah wants to inflict on ordinary Iranians who dared to protest. And in terms of Islamic scholarship and sheer credibility, the power of that group of clerics dwarfs that of the Grand Ayatollah.

 

[JSt0rm]

cool.

 

[Lemon law]

I am not ready to call it cool yet, and the existing results of the election may stand, but its still a matter that a glass ceiling has shattered, and, IMHO, the existing Iranian rule by clerics is long term skating on ever thinner ice.

Worse yet, the Grand Ayatollah may decide to really use the military and police powers of the Iranian guard to really crack down
on all dissent in Iran, sometimes the next to the last refuge of scoundrels. It worked for far too long for the Shah, but it was still the beginning of the Shah's end.

 

[JSt0rm]

well i think its cool to see mobilization within the establishment. Who knows if its going to work out or not but its their fight and I'm glad we didn't bomb or invade them as it seems that would of been a horrible move.

 

[Acanthus]

This really is big news because the ayatollah is considered to have near absolute power.
The clerics questioning his authority is nearly unprecedented.

 

[Modelworks]

If the clerics are against him he is out of there. If he attacks the clerics there will be all out war .

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
To somewhat blow my own horn, I predicted that the Iranian election would not be easily resolved by force and it would have wide ranging changes in Iranian thinking.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...n.html?ref=global-home

Just when it looked like a done deal that the Grand Ayotollah had won, a very very important group of Iranian clerics are calling the election illegitimate. It has to be a huge blow to the overly autocratic Iranian Grand Ayatollah who is assumed to infallible. And as the Iranian election and its aftermath may end up being not only the first real crisis to his long rule, and perhaps its going to end up with his removal.

With the Iranian legislature also getting into the act, siding with the protesters, and maybe ready to say no to the draconian punishment the Grand Ayatollah wants to inflict on ordinary Iranians who dared to protest. And in terms of Islamic scholarship and sheer credibility, the power of that group of clerics dwarfs that of the Grand Ayatollah.

I think you have the terms mixed up a bit.

I heard a good explanation on NPR, that the 'Supreme Leader' is an Ayatollah, but not a Grand Ayatollah. There aren't many Grand Ayatollahs, and they clearly outrank the Supreme Leader religiously, and that counts in this theocracy. And the Supreme Leader is appointed by, and can be removed by, a governing council of clerics.

If I recall correctly, a key cleric whose support was crucial to the current supreme leader being selected, is either wavering or is openly challenging this last election.

The NPR guest also explained how this was not over at all, agreeing with you on that point, explaining that the same people who overthrew the Shar are now opposing this election.

He said that their tactics will take some time, keeping the opposition going.

I'm wondering if at some point the governing council won't decide they need to replace the supreme leader to try to protect their own power.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

My prediction (and it will be nothing but luck if I'm right) was that the current government has 9 to 12 months before something major happens, and I have my money on the current government being ousted. What replaces it is unknown, but hopefully more friendly towards the west.

The opposition candidate turned out to be far too weak to offer effective resistance, but no matter. The population will me more irritated everytime it's leadership comes on the tele. When the Iranians have enough then they'll start resisting.


We'll see.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
To somewhat blow my own horn, I predicted that the Iranian election would not be easily resolved by force and it would have wide ranging changes in Iranian thinking.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...n.html?ref=global-home

Just when it looked like a done deal that the Grand Ayotollah had won, a very very important group of Iranian clerics are calling the election illegitimate. It has to be a huge blow to the overly autocratic Iranian Grand Ayatollah who is assumed to infallible. And as the Iranian election and its aftermath may end up being not only the first real crisis to his long rule, and perhaps its going to end up with his removal.

With the Iranian legislature also getting into the act, siding with the protesters, and maybe ready to say no to the draconian punishment the Grand Ayatollah wants to inflict on ordinary Iranians who dared to protest. And in terms of Islamic scholarship and sheer credibility, the power of that group of clerics dwarfs that of the Grand Ayatollah.

Yet that fucking country's absolute leader is a religious cleric. They'll always be fucked when religion wins out over reality

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Lemon law
To somewhat blow my own horn, I predicted that the Iranian election would not be easily resolved by force and it would have wide ranging changes in Iranian thinking.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...n.html?ref=global-home

Just when it looked like a done deal that the Grand Ayotollah had won, a very very important group of Iranian clerics are calling the election illegitimate. It has to be a huge blow to the overly autocratic Iranian Grand Ayatollah who is assumed to infallible. And as the Iranian election and its aftermath may end up being not only the first real crisis to his long rule, and perhaps its going to end up with his removal.

With the Iranian legislature also getting into the act, siding with the protesters, and maybe ready to say no to the draconian punishment the Grand Ayatollah wants to inflict on ordinary Iranians who dared to protest. And in terms of Islamic scholarship and sheer credibility, the power of that group of clerics dwarfs that of the Grand Ayatollah.

Yet that fucking country's absolute leader is a religious cleric. They'll always be fucked when religion wins out over reality

It's not about religion. It's about power. Right now the religions clerics are taking advantage of the situation. It isn't their religion, it's that they pretend that's where their authority comes from. In fact it comes from the barrel of a gun.

If you think that's wrong, I submit that Stalin and Mao disliked religion enough to kill those who practiced it. At last count, the two of them accounted for more deaths than any Islamic government.

So who would want to live in their "utopia"? It certainly was free from religious contamination.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Lemon law
To somewhat blow my own horn, I predicted that the Iranian election would not be easily resolved by force and it would have wide ranging changes in Iranian thinking.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...n.html?ref=global-home

Just when it looked like a done deal that the Grand Ayotollah had won, a very very important group of Iranian clerics are calling the election illegitimate. It has to be a huge blow to the overly autocratic Iranian Grand Ayatollah who is assumed to infallible. And as the Iranian election and its aftermath may end up being not only the first real crisis to his long rule, and perhaps its going to end up with his removal.

With the Iranian legislature also getting into the act, siding with the protesters, and maybe ready to say no to the draconian punishment the Grand Ayatollah wants to inflict on ordinary Iranians who dared to protest. And in terms of Islamic scholarship and sheer credibility, the power of that group of clerics dwarfs that of the Grand Ayatollah.

Yet that fucking country's absolute leader is a religious cleric. They'll always be fucked when religion wins out over reality

It's not about religion. It's about power. Right now the religions clerics are taking advantage of the situation. It isn't their religion, it's that they pretend that's where their authority comes from. In fact it comes from the barrel of a gun.

If you think that's wrong, I submit that Stalin and Mao disliked religion enough to kill those who practiced it. At last count, the two of them accounted for more deaths than any Islamic government.

So who would want to live in their "utopia"? It certainly was free from religious contamination.

Yeah and? It's not as if Religious bullshit is the only way to suppress people. I know you are on a defend those who believe in religion schtick and that's fine, I also feel that people should be able to believe in any hooey they want too, but they should also be able not to believe in it. That's not happening in Iran and they have their version of Jerry Falwell's wet dream running things there.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

And I know you think that people who believe in religion are idiots. In that belief you seem to have forgotten what the potential possibilities for a secular society. It just may be that the Iranians could wind up being controlled by the military, who may be far more quick to shoot civilians. So yeah, the idiots would be gone, and real killers installed. Getting rid of the clerics (and restoring a secular government) would be grand. I'd like to see that. Not at all costs though. YMMV

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
And I know you think that people who believe in religion are idiots. In that belief you seem to have forgotten what the potential possibilities for a secular society. It just may be that the Iranians could wind up being controlled by the military, who may be far more quick to shoot civilians. So yeah, the idiots would be gone, and real killers installed. Getting rid of the clerics (and restoring a secular government) would be grand. I'd like to see that. Not at all costs though. YMMV

No I don't think all who believe in religion are idiots. There are many who believe in religion who are wise, I just think they are wrong. Those who I think are idiots are those who believe that all must adhere to their religion.

 

[silverpig]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
And I know you think that people who believe in religion are idiots. In that belief you seem to have forgotten what the potential possibilities for a secular society. It just may be that the Iranians could wind up being controlled by the military, who may be far more quick to shoot civilians. So yeah, the idiots would be gone, and real killers installed. Getting rid of the clerics (and restoring a secular government) would be grand. I'd like to see that. Not at all costs though. YMMV

No I don't think all who believe in religion are idiots. There are many who believe in religion who are wise, I just think they are wrong. Those who I think are idiots are those who believe that all must adhere to their religion.

Oooooh, senior mod showdown!

Back on topic:
Who thought it was over? I'm following a few people on twitter and they're still as active as ever. It sounds like there are more protests every day there.

 

[randomlinh]

Originally posted by: silverpig

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
And I know you think that people who believe in religion are idiots. In that belief you seem to have forgotten what the potential possibilities for a secular society. It just may be that the Iranians could wind up being controlled by the military, who may be far more quick to shoot civilians. So yeah, the idiots would be gone, and real killers installed. Getting rid of the clerics (and restoring a secular government) would be grand. I'd like to see that. Not at all costs though. YMMV

No I don't think all who believe in religion are idiots. There are many who believe in religion who are wise, I just think they are wrong. Those who I think are idiots are those who believe that all must adhere to their religion.

Oooooh, senior mod showdown!

Back on topic:
Who thought it was over? I'm following a few people on twitter and they're still as active as ever. It sounds like there are more protests every day there.

Simple, media here doesn't give it attention, and it pretty much dwindles in the american public's eye

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: silverpig

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
And I know you think that people who believe in religion are idiots. In that belief you seem to have forgotten what the potential possibilities for a secular society. It just may be that the Iranians could wind up being controlled by the military, who may be far more quick to shoot civilians. So yeah, the idiots would be gone, and real killers installed. Getting rid of the clerics (and restoring a secular government) would be grand. I'd like to see that. Not at all costs though. YMMV

No I don't think all who believe in religion are idiots. There are many who believe in religion who are wise, I just think they are wrong. Those who I think are idiots are those who believe that all must adhere to their religion.

Oooooh, senior mod showdown!

Back on topic:
Who thought it was over? I'm following a few people on twitter and they're still as active as ever. It sounds like there are more protests every day there.

We disagree at times. It would be weird if we didn't, but we can be who we are without yelling at each other.

As far as Iran, it's hard to know what's really going on. Reporters are shut down for the most part, and a lot of what we get is third hand.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Lemon law
To somewhat blow my own horn, I predicted that the Iranian election would not be easily resolved by force and it would have wide ranging changes in Iranian thinking.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...n.html?ref=global-home

Just when it looked like a done deal that the Grand Ayotollah had won, a very very important group of Iranian clerics are calling the election illegitimate. It has to be a huge blow to the overly autocratic Iranian Grand Ayatollah who is assumed to infallible. And as the Iranian election and its aftermath may end up being not only the first real crisis to his long rule, and perhaps its going to end up with his removal.

With the Iranian legislature also getting into the act, siding with the protesters, and maybe ready to say no to the draconian punishment the Grand Ayatollah wants to inflict on ordinary Iranians who dared to protest. And in terms of Islamic scholarship and sheer credibility, the power of that group of clerics dwarfs that of the Grand Ayatollah.

Yet that fucking country's absolute leader is a religious cleric. They'll always be fucked when religion wins out over reality

It's not about religion. It's about power. Right now the religions clerics are taking advantage of the situation. It isn't their religion, it's that they pretend that's where their authority comes from. In fact it comes from the barrel of a gun.

If you think that's wrong, I submit that Stalin and Mao disliked religion enough to kill those who practiced it. At last count, the two of them accounted for more deaths than any Islamic government.

So who would want to live in their "utopia"? It certainly was free from religious contamination.

What if Islam is a religion of peace but not a religion that turns the other cheek. I don't know much but I thought that Islam will fight evil with maximum vigor right up to when evil surrenders, and then the evil will be forgiven. So what if those horrible power loving clerics are men of God who have as their religious duty to fight against evil in the name of the good and they say that stealing an election is wrong. Can't it ever be that some people are motivated by truth, justice, and love.

I guess not. What a crazy idea.

 

[Lemon law]

Not sure who said it, but we contend with the "Yet that fucking country's absolute leader is a religious cleric. They'll always be fucked when religion wins out over reality.", statement.

But when any given countries leaders are autocratic idiots, does it really matter if they are a religious cleric, a king, a dictator, or a Shah, sooner or later the people tend to take action and give the head banana the ole heave ho.

And the way the initial statement reads, its assumes that once a cleric gets absolute power, it will be forever that way.

But when we look at history, its simply not the case in the long term. And the more autocratic and idiotic the leader, the sooner they will fall. But even then, its often premature to expect instant results.