New Time Magazine Poll

[ntdz]

I dont have a link yet, but it appears Bush is getting a significant bounce

It said Bush had 52%, Kerry 41%

The poll was taken before Bush's great speech as well. Kerry is in deep trouble...

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: ntdz
I dont have a link yet, but it appears Bush is getting a significant bounce

It said Bush had 52%, Kerry 41%

The poll was taken before Bush's great speech as well. Kerry is in deep trouble...

Yawn.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Here are Zogby's numbers from the swing states, taken last week. I believe they accurately predicted every state in 2000. Obviously these may have changed after the RNC, since a few of the states were quite close.

Polling Report is probably the best omnibus polling site IMO.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: DonVito
Here are Zogby's numbers from the swing states, taken last week. I believe they accurately predicted every state in 2000. Obviously these may have changed after the RNC, since a few of the states were quite close.

All but four of the states are within the sampling margin of error. What happened to the rest of the map? Only shows like ten states.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

All but four of the states are within the sampling margin of error. What happened to the rest of the map? Only shows like ten states.

Those are the swing states.

 

[ntdz]

lol, those polls were taken before Kerry's plummet in the polls happened. I expect Bush to be winning in nearly all those swing states once Zogby posts the new poll results...

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

All but four of the states are within the sampling margin of error. What happened to the rest of the map? Only shows like ten states.

Actually I think you're miscounting. I count the margin in nine of the states as greater than the margin of error.

EDIT - I guess you're right, though it isn't totally clear. The numbers actually reported don't seem to track with which ones they're saying are within the margin of error.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ntdz
lol, those polls were taken before Kerry's plummet in the polls happened. I expect Bush to be winning in nearly all those swing states once Zogby posts the new poll results...

What "plummet"? Have you looked at the actual polls?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUSH vs. KERRY: Among likely voters; with leaners, where available. (See registered voters.)

Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
End Date % % Bush Kerry mates?

Zogby 9/2 46 44 2 Y

American Research Group 9/1 48 47 1 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/29 49 49 n/a

ICR 8/29 46 50 4 Y

Time [without leaners] 8/26 46 46 Y

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25 44 45 1 N

Gallup 8/25 50 47 3 Y

NPR 8/24 45 50 5 N

GWU Battleground 8/17 47 49 2 N

Zogby 8/14 43 50 7 Y

Gallup 8/11 50 47 3 Y

ICR 8/8 48 48 Y

Time [with leaners] 8/5 44 51 7 Y

Democracy Corps (D) 8/5 45 52 7 N

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 48 5 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/1 48 49 1 n/a

CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 51 47 4 Y

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




BUSH vs. KERRY: Among registered voters; with leaners, where available. (See likely voters.)

Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
End Date % % Bush Kerry mates?

American Research Group 9/1 46 48 2 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/29 48 49 1 n/a

ICR 8/29 44 51 7 Y

Gallup 8/25 47 48 1 Y

Los Angeles Times 8/24 49 46 3 Y

IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23 44 44 N

CBS 8/18 44 47 3 Y

Gallup 8/11 48 47 1 Y

ICR 8/8 45 50 5 Y

Time 8/5 43 51 8 Y

IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/5 43 49 6 N

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 46 3 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/1 45 52 7 n/a

American Research Group 8/1 46 49 3 N

CBS 8/1 43 49 6 Y
CBS 8/1 44 51 7 N

CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 48 48 Y

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[ntdz]

and, here is the poll link....

http://www.time.com/time/press.../0,8599,692562,00.html

Keep denying it...

Spin it baby one more time...

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ntdz
and, here is the poll link....

http://www.time.com/time/press.../0,8599,692562,00.html

Keep denying it...

I'm not denying it, but it's just one poll. The Harris and Zogby polls have been historically the most accurate, but each poll has its own results.

 

[burnedout]

Originally posted by: ntdz
I dont have a link yet, but it appears Bush is getting a significant bounce

It said Bush had 52%, Kerry 41%

The poll was taken before Bush's great speech as well. Kerry is in deep trouble...

Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead - Time

New York: For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6. . . . .

EDIT: Ooops. Looks like I was a bit too slow.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: DonVito

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

All but four of the states are within the sampling margin of error. What happened to the rest of the map? Only shows like ten states.

Actually I think you're miscounting. I count the margin in nine of the states as greater than the margin of error.

EDIT - I guess you're right, though it isn't totally clear. The numbers actually reported don't seem to track with which ones they're saying are within the margin of error.

I don't care to know how they managed a 7%+ in error... Did they ask like three people? The poll is kinda shoddy in general I guess.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: ntdz
lol, those polls were taken before Kerry's plummet in the polls happened. I expect Bush to be winning in nearly all those swing states once Zogby posts the new poll results...

Someone take note of this prediction.

It's possible that Kerry could be going down because of the hate and fear-mongering by the sleazy Bush campaign. Kerry needs to fight back, and it sounds like he's started to do that last night.

Great post don vito of the WSJ site. When does the next zogby poll come out?

 

[ntdz]

I don't care to know how they managed a 7%+ in error... Did they ask like three people? The poll is kinda shoddy in general I guess.

Where does it say 7%? It says 3% for registered and 4% for likely. You dont add them together, lol...quit drawing for straws and admit Kerry is gonna lose

 

[xxxxxJohnGaltxxxxx]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

I don't care to know how they managed a 7%+ in error... Did they ask like three people? The poll is kinda shoddy in general I guess.

As someone who has an affinity for numbers/data/statistics, I, too, agree with the questionable 7%..probably a sample size (n) of 200.

 

[ntdz]

Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 ? September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.


OK, all this garbage is put to rest. It's a valid poll.

 

[Red Dawn]

I figured this would happen after the horrible August Kerry had. What's even worse for Kerry is a lot of those who totally dislike Bush might believe that Kerry is not a better Alternative because he has come across weak so they won't even bother to vote. Too bad because the Dub was ripe for the picking.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: ntdz

I don't care to know how they managed a 7%+ in error... Did they ask like three people? The poll is kinda shoddy in general I guess.

Where does it say 7%? It says 3% for registered and 4% for likely. You dont add them together, lol...quit drawing for straws and admit Kerry is gonna lose

I was talking about Zogby, not Time. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
I figured this would happen after the horrible August Kerry had. What's even worse for Kerry is a lot of those who totally dislike Bush might believe that Kerry is not a better Alternative because he has come across weak so they won't even bother to vote. Too bad because the Dub was ripe for the picking.

More and more polls looking bad for Kerry...

And this doesnt include a total convention bounce.



Kerry is in serious trouble.

 

[sMiLeYz]

Kerry got a bounce from the DNC, naturally Bush got a bounce from the RNC.

Let's wait until debates .

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: ntdz

I don't care to know how they managed a 7%+ in error... Did they ask like three people? The poll is kinda shoddy in general I guess.

Where does it say 7%? It says 3% for registered and 4% for likely. You dont add them together, lol...quit drawing for straws and admit Kerry is gonna lose

Yawn. You post like a troll you will be treated as such. November is a long ways away and there are a few little hurdles in both candidates way, like Debates...

This election is up for grabs no matter how badly you want Bush to win. Bush can and very well may come off like a chump when he gets debated. Kerry could do the same.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Great post don vito of the WSJ site. When does the next zogby poll come out?

No idea, though I imagine they'll take one by the end of next week.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

We all know this race is going to be close, I'm not denying Bush isn't going to get a bounce out of this convention. But that's all he's gonna get, a bounce, and things will fall back to what they were: a dead heat. People forget speeches, conventions, within a very short period of time.

Anyone else feel like were in an Alice and Wonderland world with this economy. Here we have Bush touting the strength of the economy, and the improvements that are being made. Taking a look at the actual market shows a quite different picture. Wages are down, the quality of jobs isn't as good as before, the wrong types of jobs are being created (low-paying service jobs account for 100,000+ of the new jobs this august), and consumer confidence in the economy is still shaky.

 

[ReiAyanami]

Let's hope Bush gets bounced out of office.

 

[Genx87]

It's possible that Kerry could be going down because of the hate and fear-mongering by the sleazy Bush campaign. Kerry needs to fight back, and it sounds like he's started to do that last night.

Or it could be more people are getting sick of Kerry not really saying much of anything. At some point in time the guy is going to have to take a stand on something. Not say one thing, do another, then say another thing.

I have a couple of friends who are moderate liberals and they are voting Bush for the simple fact they at least know what he is, what he stands for, and what he wants to do. They say with Kerry it goes with the wind.