New Polls: Obama Expands His Electoral College Lead Over McCain

[jpeyton]

Text

Obama is a political phenom. A few years ago he was a state senator in Illinois, a few months ago he was a junior US Senator with almost no name recognition, and now he's moments away from the Democratic nomination for President in a year when Democrats are favored to win everything from the Presidency to numerous Senate and House seats across the country. Along the way, he not only defeated the biggest brand name in Democratic politics (Clinton), but he is now serving McCain Jell-O at his political hospice. Obama has expanded his electoral college lead over McCain even before Hillary has spent one minute stumping for his campaign, which will begin after she concedes this week.

 

[Jhhnn]

I wouldn't be counting my chickens before they hatch, jpeyton. There's a good long while until the votes are actually cast, and a lot of swiftboat helmsmen waiting for the go-ahead to attack...

Expect an epic tidal wave of slime from the rightwing, with McCain trying to ride it like a pro surfer...

Not that I'm against Obama, at all- I'm for him. But we need to be realists, and we need to put our money where our mouth is- give our candidate more than our votes.

 

[Tab]

Given the performance of the Republican Party for the last eight years I'll be putting my money on Obamarama becoming the next POTUS.

 

[nageov3t]

seems like that same site shows Hillary doing significantly better against McCain than Obama, but I don't see you citing that fact

a few months ago he was a junior US Senator with almost no name recognition

that's just downright revisionist. he was on the cover of Time years ago with the headline "Why Barack Obama Could Be the Next President."

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
I wouldn't be counting my chickens before they hatch, jpeyton. There's a good long while until the votes are actually cast, and a lot of swiftboat helmsmen waiting for the go-ahead to attack...

Expect an epic tidal wave of slime from the rightwing, with McCain trying to ride it like a pro surfer...

Not that I'm against Obama, at all- I'm for him. But we need to be realists, and we need to put our money where our mouth is- give our candidate more than our votes.

he is leading despite not having solidified democrats just yet. It may go even further towards obama, especially when he picks a VP and accepts a nomination.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
I wouldn't be counting my chickens before they hatch, jpeyton. There's a good long while until the votes are actually cast, and a lot of swiftboat helmsmen waiting for the go-ahead to attack...

Expect an epic tidal wave of slime from the rightwing, with McCain trying to ride it like a pro surfer...

Not that I'm against Obama, at all- I'm for him. But we need to be realists, and we need to put our money where our mouth is- give our candidate more than our votes.

he is leading despite not having solidified democrats just yet. It may go even further towards obama, especially when he picks a VP and accepts a nomination.

but he's only leading by a hair, despite 8 years of Bush and the republicans running roughshod over the constitution.

I think Obama will see a surge in the polls over the summer, but I don't think these specific numbers are something to celebrate when you're looking at practically 50:50 in what should be a democratic landslide.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
I wouldn't be counting my chickens before they hatch, jpeyton. There's a good long while until the votes are actually cast, and a lot of swiftboat helmsmen waiting for the go-ahead to attack...

Expect an epic tidal wave of slime from the rightwing, with McCain trying to ride it like a pro surfer...

Not that I'm against Obama, at all- I'm for him. But we need to be realists, and we need to put our money where our mouth is- give our candidate more than our votes.

he is leading despite not having solidified democrats just yet. It may go even further towards obama, especially when he picks a VP and accepts a nomination.

but he's only leading by a hair, despite 8 years of Bush and the republicans running roughshod over the constitution.

I think Obama will see a surge in the polls over the summer, but I don't think these specific numbers are something to celebrate when you're looking at practically 50:50 in what should be a democratic landslide.

That Obama is doing that well after a 17-month-long, emotional campaign :Q against Clinton is the big surprise.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
I wouldn't be counting my chickens before they hatch, jpeyton. There's a good long while until the votes are actually cast, and a lot of swiftboat helmsmen waiting for the go-ahead to attack...

Expect an epic tidal wave of slime from the rightwing, with McCain trying to ride it like a pro surfer...

Not that I'm against Obama, at all- I'm for him. But we need to be realists, and we need to put our money where our mouth is- give our candidate more than our votes.

he is leading despite not having solidified democrats just yet. It may go even further towards obama, especially when he picks a VP and accepts a nomination.

but he's only leading by a hair, despite 8 years of Bush and the republicans running roughshod over the constitution.

I think Obama will see a surge in the polls over the summer, but I don't think these specific numbers are something to celebrate when you're looking at practically 50:50 in what should be a democratic landslide.

That Obama is doing that well after a 17-month-long, emotional campaign :Q against Clinton is the big surprise.

Exactly. And again, it's with weak dem support. Here's why i suspect that'll change. Dems generally like their candidates. Some hillary supporters are crying but they'll get over it. On the other hand, McCain isn't firing up his base by any stretch of the imagination. He backed into this nomination. I suspect over the long haul his republican numbers will weaken and obamas will strengthen.

Also, some of the places where obama is leading are downright shocking.

 

[Jhhnn]

I'm just telling my fellow Dems not to get complacent- this won't be easy. It's not a sure thing, at all.

The repub leadership is *desperate*, so they'll throw everything they've got into this, for several reasons. First, losing the presidency after losing congress will basically demand that repubs reform and reorganize- which means a change in leadership. And, quite frankly, if the documentation from the Bush Whitehouse sees the light of day anytime RSN, they'll be pounded into an also-ran position for decades...

Double or nothing- If they lose, they lose it all, and they know it.

 

[ericlp]

If I had to bet a 100Grand on who was gonna take it. My money would be on Obama... But... why would I care?

Anyone wanna go in on mcsame?

Hahaha

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: ericlp
If I had to bet a 100Grand on who was gonna take it. My money would be on Obama... But... why would I care?

Anyone wanna go in on mcsame?

Hahaha

by go-in, do you mean go into jail because betting on the presidential election is illegal?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Tab
Given the performance of the Republican Party for the last eight years I'll be putting my money on Obamarama becoming the next POTUS.

And the two previous elections were considered to be handed to the Dems on a silver platter, yet they could not capitalize.

Poll jumps will always come after a media frenzy.

You will see one after the DNC and the RNC also.

Obama has at least three serious quagmires to negotiate, that are known of right now.

 

[Genx87]

The only poll that counts is the vote. At some point down the road Obama will have to answer the hard questions about his positions and plans. The debates should be entertaining.

 

[Deudalus]

Not to knock you fellas back down to reality but there are a few facts that you guys are frankly not considering.

1: Obama needs all of Hillary's people to have a shot.

2: Hillary and Obama virtually split the primary votes. Obama won, but it was damn near 50/50.

3: If just 25% of Hillary's people decide to not show up, or vote for McCain, then Obama is probably toast.

That's not much leeway.

 

[TallBill]

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: Tab
Given the performance of the Republican Party for the last eight years I'll be putting my money on Obamarama becoming the next POTUS.

And the two previous elections were considered to be handed to the Dems on a silver platter, yet they could not capitalize.

Poll jumps will always come after a media frenzy.

You will see one after the DNC and the RNC also.

Obama has at least three serious quagmires to negotiate, that are known of right now.

Yeah, this one is coming down to the wire.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: Genx87
The only poll that counts is the vote. At some point down the road Obama will have to answer the hard questions about his positions and plans. The debates should be entertaining.

Yea, I can't wait and watch McSame get slaughtered.

 

[Jhhnn]

From CC-

And the two previous elections were considered to be handed to the Dems on a silver platter, yet they could not capitalize.

That's not true, at all. It's rare for a vice president to succeed his own president, ever, while fear, rage, and misplaced pride were still big sellers in 2004...

Neither of those circumstances exist today, but it's still an uphill battle against the brain-numbing mindrot of talk radio and the so-called liberal media, not to mention a lot of white racist sentiment occasionally showing its dorsal fin above the surface... using the accusatory guise of black racism, naturally...

The underlying message being that it's OK for me to be racist, because they are, too...

McCain has real problems in his age, and also in the fact that he's basically the newly appointed helmsman of the USS Bush- any policy differences can be covered by the breadth of my pinky finger. He'll have to build a lot of distractions to overcome the fundamental truths in that.

 

[RightIsWrong]

Originally posted by: Deudalus
Not to knock you fellas back down to reality but there are a few facts that you guys are frankly not considering.

1: Obama needs all of Hillary's people to have a shot.

2: Hillary and Obama virtually split the primary votes. Obama won, but it was damn near 50/50.

3: If just 25% of Hillary's people decide to not show up, or vote for McCain, then Obama is probably toast.

That's not much leeway.

1. No he doesn't. He just needs the hard core Hillary supporters (i.e. Harriet Christian) to stay home and pout or the reasonable ones to realize that he is still a (D) and is very similar to Hillary on most issues. That will be enough for the vast majority of rational thinking people that were backing Hillary to back him.

2. True

3. Wrong again. If 25% don't show or vote for McCain and Obama still gets the other 75% to go along with he current polling lead....he crushes McCain in a landslide.

 

[Pabster]

Obama > McCain

But there's lots of time left before November. This is like Round 1.

 

[TraumaRN]

I'm calling some BS on that site. The fact that they have Obama losing Michigan is kinda laughable...I'm from Michigan and if Obama DIDNT win this state I'd be in a state of shock and awe

 

[lupi]

Yeah, it's gonna be a freaking Hussein landslide.


Assuming of course you ignire the fact the he only won 2 of the top dozen + populous states, only 1 of which would vote dem, and even with the fervour over his sermons he's still running even against McCain in the national polls; against a competator that hasn't done any significant campaigning in about 3 months.

 

[mshan]

"What is the purpose of the simulation runs? To account for three types of error in interpreting polling data: sampling error, state-specific movement, and national movement. Please see my thorough discussion here. The most important concept to grasp is that the error in predicting electoral outcomes is much larger at this stage of the election cycle than would be implied by the margins of errors from the polls alone. That is, the election may 'break' in any number of different and unpredictable directions, both at a state-by-state and at a national level. As we get closer to November 4, the potentiality for these trends will become lesser, and therefore the error assumed by my simulation model will become progressively less. However, even on election eve, the errors in predicting electoral outcomes are larger than those implied by each pollster's margin of error calculation alone." (PECOTA)

Landslide?

 

[SP33Demon]

Take those predictions with a grain of salt, but I would bet on Obama because McCain will surely say open his mouth with stupidity numerous times between now and election time.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Take those predictions with an ocean of salt, but I would bet on Obama because McCain will surely say open his mouth with stupidity numerous times between now and election time.

Kerry, 04, anyone? how quickly they forget

 

[mshan]

Demographic Tidal Wave?

"Unlike some of the other stuff I do here, this is not necessarily meant to be predictive. I'm not necessarily saying there will be big increases in turnout among these groups. Instead, it's meant to be illustrative of how the map would change IF Obama did get higher turnout from these groups. The whole thing is kind of in the conditional tense." (Link)



That being said, I think the only true Obama vs. McCain game-changer is an event that makes the youth question their fundamental faith in the man and his message so that they lose their enthusiasm and just don't show up to vote in November.

Verbal gaffes, selectively edited soundbytes, 527s, etc. might make the race closer because it energizes the Republican base, but I suspect that just matching 2004 Republican turnout levels just ain't going to cut it. Clinton has definitely wounded Obama, and I wonder if she has had a greater negative effect than anything the Republicans and their 527s can throw at him.