Well.. the economy's demand pull will slacken due to the bazillion ARM's that were created in the last few years.. The Fed will have to increase the discount rate and up goes them there ARM rates and there goes the disposable income.. the built in CofL that some folks get will not occur for awhile... and won't help much.
The worst issue is the change in the make up of the National Debt.. If I have my data right... we moved a sizable portion of the debt from LT to ST and when that renews the interest due on it will have immediate affect... We always felt that to lock in on LT was the best policy but something changed in that thinking.. I guess some portion of it will be the attitude of folks cashing in LT vehicles for cash to meet the cash flow needs the rising inflation might or will bring...
edit: The rising fuel costs will also sap the disposable income as well as everything else. Like everyone knows... ya gotta pay for your housing, food and transport before ya buy that TV.