New CNN Poll: GOP divided over tea party movement

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Siddhartha

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Oct 17, 1999
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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...vided-over-tea-party-movement/?iref=allsearch

New CNN Poll: GOP divided over tea party movement
By: CNN Political Unit


Washington (CNN) - The Republican Party is split right down the middle between tea party movement supporters and those who do not support the two-and-a-half-year-old movement, according to a new national survey.

And a CNN/ORC International Poll released Thursday also highlights the differences in demographics, ideology, and temperament between the two camps. According to the survey, on some issues, the two wings of the GOP are in accord, but tea party activists and supporters do not speak for the entire Republican Party on issues such as the deficit, global warming, evolution, abortion, gay marriage, the Federal Reserve, the Department of Education, or Social Security.

Full results (pdf)

"Demographically, the tea party movement seems to hearken back to the 'angry white men' who were credited with the GOP's upset victory in the 1994 midterm elections," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Ideologically, it effectively boils down to the century-old contest between the conservative and moderate wings of the party."

According to the survey, roughly half (49 percent) of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they support the tea party movement or are active members, with roughly half (51 percent) saying that they have no feelings one way or another about the tea party or that they oppose the movement.

The poll indicates that demographically, tea party Republicans are more likely to be male, older, and college educated, with non-tea party Republicans more likely to be younger, less educated, female, and less likely to say they are born-again or evangelical. Both groups are predominantly white.

Nearly eight in ten tea party Republicans describe themselves as conservatives, with nearly half of non-tea party Republicans call themselves moderate, or in a few cases, liberal. But the differences are also a matter of temperament: 50 percent of tea party Republicans say they are "very angry" about the way things are going in the country today, compared to just 29 percent of their Republican counterparts.

How does all of that affect their views on the issues of the day?

"One of the biggest differences is on the relative importance of jobs versus the federal deficit. Most tea party Republicans say that Congress and President Barack Obama should pay more attention to the deficit," says Holland. "Most non-tea party Republicans say that reducing unemployment is more important than reducing the deficit."

But the "science" issue is also a strong divider. Nearly six in ten tea party Republicans say that global warming is not a proven fact. Most non-tea party Republicans disagree. Six in ten tea party Republicans say that evolution is wrong. Non-tea party Republicans are split on evolution. Six in ten tea party Republicans say the Department of Education should be abolished, but only one in five of their GOP counterparts holds that same view.

There is also disagreement on social issues: Tea party Republicans are roughly twice as likely to say that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances and roughly half as likely to support gay marriage. Tea party Republicans are also roughly twice as likely to believe that the Social Security system should be replaced, and although most Republicans on either side disagree with the assertion that Social Security is a lie and a failure, tea party GOPers are much more likely to embrace that view.

What will happen to the GOP next year if tea party Republicans don't get their way?

"Nearly half of them say that they are not very likely to support an independent presidential candidate next year - possibly because removing Obama from power is their overwhelming motivation, and they may recognize that bolting the party would ensure his re-election," says Holland.

Eight in ten tea party Republicans say that they would prefer a candidate who can beat Obama over one who agrees with them on top issues, so ideological purity may take a back seat to pragmatic politics in 2012 even if the GOP nominee is not a tea party favorite.

Non-tea party Republicans are somewhat more likely to consider voting for a third-party candidate, and place somewhat less emphasis on beating Obama.

"So it's possible that a bolt from the GOP may come from the moderates rather than the tea party activists and supporters. But there is no way to predict how people will react to inherently unpredictable events, so anything can happen," adds Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International September 9-11, with 446 Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

–CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

This poll clarifies why the current crop of GOP POTUS candidates are dancing the Tea Party Dance.

I wonder how the GOP POTUS nominee will be able to move to the center for the 2012 general election. Maybe he\she will not have to...
 
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Ausm

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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I wish it was that way in Congress it seems like every time the Teapublicans stomp their feet Boner cowers like a little bitch.
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
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The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International September 9-11, with 446 Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

With numbers and demographics like that, who can question the validity of this poll?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,382
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Much of the GOP is the establishment, big gov, Republican. The likes of Bush, McCain, and Romney. They are the anti-thesis to libertarianism and must be opposed by true conservatives.

The Tea Party has failed if it does not expel them. The people need a party to represent them, and it has been long since they've had one after the corruption of conservatives and rise of the big gov Neocon.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
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There is no ideological purity in either party. Both parties are more alike than not, and moderate Republicans like the Tea Party folks no better than moderate Democrats like the progressives.
 

Ausm

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
25,215
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There is no ideological purity in either party. Both parties are more alike than not, and moderate Republicans like the Tea Party folks no better than moderate Democrats like the progressives.

I wasn't aware there were any "moderate" Republicans left in Congress most of them unfortunately crossed party lines and are Blue dog Democrats.
 

woolfe9999

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Mar 28, 2005
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I wasn't aware there were any "moderate" Republicans left in Congress most of them unfortunately crossed party lines and are Blue dog Democrats.

Yeah that's true, but what's interesting is that the poll suggests that there are indeed plenty of moderate conservatives who identify with the GOP (as opposed to identifying as conservative democrats) amongst the general population. Apparently the "angry white man" is the squeaky wheel, and the squeaky wheel gets all the grease.

- wolf
 
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GTaudiophile

Lifer
Oct 24, 2000
29,776
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Haha! Berry must have paid for this article. The timing is too perfect.

A day after the Ds got blasted at the polls, CNN turns to report on a divided R party?
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
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I wasn't aware there were any "moderate" Republicans left in Congress most of them unfortunately crossed party lines and are Blue dog Democrats.
LOL I have the same feeling about the Democrats, that the party has driven out the moderates (many of whom became Republicans) and has become radicalized. In both cases we're really reacting to the fact that the opposite party is more to our left or right. In reality both parties are more alike than dissimilar; they have to be, because they rely on the unaffiliated center to gain and hold power. Look not at what the politician says, look instead at what he does. You'll find it's much the same for both sides.

This is why it was so difficult for Obama and the Dems to pass a relatively mild form of socialized medicine in a nation where the federal government already spends almost half of every health care dollar, even with a veto-proof Senate majority, and why his party was so punished for doing so. It may be to your right and to my left, but the center is where both parties govern.
 

woolfe9999

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Mar 28, 2005
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LOL I have the same feeling about the Democrats, that the party has driven out the moderates (many of whom became Republicans) and has become radicalized. In both cases we're really reacting to the fact that the opposite party is more to our left or right. In reality both parties are more alike than dissimilar; they have to be, because they rely on the unaffiliated center to gain and hold power. Look not at what the politician says, look instead at what he does. You'll find it's much the same for both sides.

This is why it was so difficult for Obama and the Dems to pass a relatively mild form of socialized medicine in a nation where the federal government already spends almost half of every health care dollar, even with a veto-proof Senate majority, and why his party was so punished for doing so. It may be to your right and to my left, but the center is where both parties govern.

You may have the same perception of the democratic party, but your perception is simply not accurate. There is no real counterpart to the blue dog democrats in the GOP. There is a reason the dems can't agree in lockstep on a piece of legislation but the republicans can. There is a reason you can get every republican to vote against a dem bill but you can't get every dem to vote against a rep bill. The dems have a moderate wing and a left wing. The reps do too, amongst their voters, but the moderates are very low in number and marginalized in influence in Congress.

Furthermore, the democratic base is more hetrogenous and diverse than is the republican base. Socio-economically, educationally, ideologically, regionally and ethnically. The dem base consists of groups who are not actually liberal across the board but identify with the dems out of self-interest. Union members, for example, will tend to support the dems because of their pro-union stance, but on the whole members of unions aren't any more liberal than the general population on issues not related to unions. Similarly, blacks tend to be socially conservative. Etc. etc.

Have you ever wondered why in polls quite a bit more people in this country identify as conservative than as liberal, but when you look at *party* identification, typically slightly more identify as democrat than as republican? It's because the dem party is not a uniformally liberal party but the republican is a uniformally conservative party.

Overall I agree that the parties are somewhat similar in deed if very different in rhetoric. The similarity in actual governance, however, often has to do with the compromises involved in the political process. Ordinarily the end result of almost any process is going to be some sort of "centrist" compromise or no bill at all. These compromises tend to leave both liberals and conservatives dissatisfied with the results, and both perceive the political parties as similar when in fact they are coming from very different places ideologically and arriving at a compromise for pragmatic reasons. The recent debt ceiling crisis and its resolution is a perfect example of that. Notice that many liberals and many conservatives think their side got screwed, and both are angry at their respective parties over it?

- wolf
 
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Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,995
776
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Much of the GOP is the establishment, big gov, Republican. The likes of Bush, McCain, and Romney. They are the anti-thesis to libertarianism and must be opposed by true conservatives.

The Tea Party has failed if it does not expel them. The people need a party to represent them, and it has been long since they've had one after the corruption of conservatives and rise of the big gov Neocon.

Yes, clearly the tea party, a slight majority who are against free trade, and a solid majority who favor entitlement programs, are the bastions of libertarianism. You are retarded.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,717
47,406
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LOL I have the same feeling about the Democrats, that the party has driven out the moderates (many of whom became Republicans) and has become radicalized.

That's really not held up by the evidence. The average DW-NOMINATE score for a Democratic member of Congress has become more liberal over the last 30 years, but the average Republican has shifted considerably more to the right.

5670586288_5204d53f36.jpg


Democrats and Republicans were roughly equal in 1980 from a DW-NOMINATE perspective, both clocking in at just over -.3 and .3 respectively. In 2010, Democrats came in at around a -.39, and Republicans at about a .46-.47. That means that Democrats over the last 30 years have moved 0.9 to the left, and Republicans have moved around 1.6-1.7 to the right, almost double the rate of the Democrats.

While both have become more ideologically extreme, one has radicalized to a far greater extent.
 
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