When this was announced (and I expected Apple Silicon to perform about as well as it ended up doing) I thought that if Apple was able to double their market share to ~15% in five years that would exceed their wildest projections. Getting comfortably into double digits is probably their goal for the next three.It is alright to be skeptical...
I am not disagreeing with your logic. I bet long term Apple is going to grow market share, but I also recognize there is no way to prove the future with present info.
I am just sharing what info I have now.
They are "comfortably in the double digits" in the mobile market (a bit higher in the smartphone market) and that's about as good as they can ever do given that they sell premium devices. The market for premium PCs is larger as a percentage (because the really poor people that are a majority of the world's population who do own very low end smartphones or feature phones do not and never will own PCs) but Windows has an entrenched advantage they didn't face when they entered the mobile market.