Netflix stock $300 ---> $161 since July price hike! UPDATE: $106!

[Dari]

Netflix was doing everything right for years. I guess they got tired of their winning streak and decided to fuck with things. They then proceeded to fuck with the UI. They fucked with the price. Then they fucked with their bread-n-butter: DVDs. I attribute it to either boredom or to a CEO who thinks he can do no wrong. Afterall, he talked Hollywood into all these streaming deals for pennies on the dollar. But now, with all this backlash and the 900%-9000% increase in cost for streaming that Hollywood is about to renegotiate on these contracts, Netflix is turning its winning streak into a losing streak. IMHO, their new contract will be the standard so I don't see them having any advantages over other streaming companies. I see their stock falling further in the next year. Their golden age is over.

 

[jpeyton]

They then proceeded to fuck with the UI. They fucked with the price. Then they fucked with their bread-n-butter: DVDs. I attribute it to either boredom or to a CEO who thinks he can do no wrong.

None of those things matter. The ONLY reason why Netflix will be hurting in the near-term is because the cost of content acquisition is going WAY up.

The good thing is their losses will only be felt over the next year as they gobble up content partners. Content acquisition deals are typically multi-year, so their near-term hit in profits will be made up in coming years. They are also expanding internationally. They took a small hit in US subscribers because of the price hike, but they are still up almost 5 million subscribers year-over-year in the US alone.

I'm a Netflix streaming subscriber, and I'll stay one until someone comes along and gives me a better value for $7.99/month.

 

[Dari]

None of those things matter. The ONLY reason why Netflix will be hurting in the near-term is because the cost of content acquisition is going WAY up.

The good thing is their losses will only be felt over the next year as they gobble up content partners. Content acquisition deals are typically multi-year, so their near-term hit in profits will be made up in coming years. They are also expanding internationally. They took a small hit in US subscribers because of the price hike, but they are still up almost 5 million subscribers year-over-year in the US alone.

I'm a Netflix streaming subscriber, and I'll stay one until someone comes along and gives me a better value for $7.99/month.

They do matter. Design matters. Like I said, this streaming business is novel for Hollywood so they will use Netflix as a template for other companies. I don't think Hollywood would be stupid to give Netflix a sweetheart deal in order for it to become dominant and have leverage over them. They saw what happened with music industry and Apple. Therefore, Netflix is merely laying the path for many other clones to follow. That means things like UI will matter. Fickle customers can leave them for the next website.

 

[dwell]

The good thing is their losses will only be felt over the next year as they gobble up content partners. Content acquisition deals are typically multi-year, so their near-term hit in profits will be made up in coming years. They are also expanding internationally. They took a small hit in US subscribers because of the price hike, but they are still up almost 5 million subscribers year-over-year in the US alone.

Yeah, but the deals they are making suck. Dreamworks Animation only in 2013? CW reruns? They need to heavy deals, like first-run movies showing up in the DVD window.

I can't go into details and you can take this as BS if you want, but I heard a story where the Netflix execs went to one of the major networks begging to license any of their content, even one of their crappiest shows, just so they can make a press announcement that they had that network's content.

So when you hear about them making all these great content deals, take it with a grain of salt.

 

[fenrir]

but I heard a story where the Netflix execs went to one of the major networks begging to license any of their content, even one of their crappiest shows, just so they can make a press announcement that they had that network's content.

take it with a grain of salt.

Fixed.

 

[bfdd]

Anyone bitching about Netflixes policies really needs to blame those responsible for them, the media producers and content providers who are demanding ridiculous amounts of money for their content. I'll keep supporting Netflix until they completely cave into the greedy bastards, at which point I'll proceed to pull my script. Right now though it seems as if they're doing everything possible to try and accommodate their customers due to the rising cost of content. I'd rather see them pull off that content and take a stand than raise my prices. There's so much fucking media out there the price I and many others are willing to pay for old and even new content is going down exponentially daily. A new movie just isn't worth 11 dollars to go see in the theater to me any more when there's literally 10s of thousands of flicks that have came out in my 26 years of life that I have yet to experience.

 

[Doppel]

The good thing is their losses will only be felt over the next year as they gobble up content partners. Content acquisition deals are typically multi-year, so their near-term hit in profits will be made up in coming years.

You're talking as if they're about to get the content contracts done and then sit on their butt and collect subscriber cash. Their content is still going to suck and they'll continually be trying to get more of it. Their content costs will rise inexorably and continually.

Despite earlier hating I actually got my netflix membership back recently but only for streaming and only until I can catch up on a bunch of series backlogged, then I'll cancel it again and do it again in a year. The only reason to keep a membership going would be for new release movies and they're no good there. Netflix will NEVER stream as part of an inexpensive monthly membership a significant number of new releases. Never, ever, ever, for it would destroy the $5/movie people are paying their cable provider or amazon pay-per-view or apple or xbox or whatever else. They will always be sloppy seconds at any price within the ballpark of their current one.

 

[ponyo]

Backlash from Netflix Buybacks

Netflix hits 20 month low

Issued more debt and sold more stock.

 

[dwell]

52 week 69.00 - 304.79

Currently at ~70

 

[Rage187]

I cancelled the other day. This recent blow out reminded me that I hadn't utilized the service in a couple months.

 

[Wyndru]

Wow, this really doesn't look good for them.

 

[Miramonti]

Backlash from Netflix Buybacks

Netflix hits 20 month low

Issued more debt and sold more stock.

Since the start of 2011, the company has more than tripled such commitments to a whopping $3.5 billion, of which $2.9 billion is due in the next three years.

This is going to be hilarious...the most they've made is ~$300m/yr iinm, and they expect to operate in the red next year as they expand europe. There is no possible way they will meet those payments.

 

[ponyo]

52 week 69.00 - 304.79

Currently at ~70

The only thing better would have been if I shorted the stock after the announced price increase at ~$280 or so. My gut told me to short but my brain told me no since these type of momo stock can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. I did cancel the service right after the price increase announcement. It's still fun to watch the implosion.

 

[bfdd]

seriously listening to people talk about Netflix is funny to me. What are they doing wrong now? Trying to keep content and not allow their customers to be raped by content creators/providers? I support them because they refused to pay Starz what they wanted because that would to have led to even a larger price jump for us customers.

also, i don't much care for new releases. there is literally tens of thousands of movies that have come out over the years I haven't seen and just as many tv shows. i think to many of you guys forget that shit.

 

[sourceninja]

I love netflix. I've only ever used their streaming service and I'm hoping they find a way to pull this back together. I still have 3 more seasons of the X-Files to watch!

 

[dwell]

seriously listening to people talk about Netflix is funny to me. What are they doing wrong now? Trying to keep content and not allow their customers to be raped by content creators/providers? I support them because they refused to pay Starz what they wanted because that would to have led to even a larger price jump for us customers.

You support them because they have less content?

Content deals are the name of the game. Nobody has it figured out yet. What people are finding amusing is that Netflix has been the darling of Wall Street for the past two years. Overnight it was exposed that management has no clue what they are doing and that their business model is unsustainable.

A lot of us knew this for a long time and were wondering how it was possible their stock kept rising despite a broken business model. Reed Hastings just accelerated things by putting a gun to his feet and pulling the trigger.

 

[manly]

This is going to be hilarious...the most they've made is ~$300m/yr iinm, and they expect to operate in the red next year as they expand europe. There is no possible way they will meet those payments.

commitments? Not sure if it was in this thread, but I'll reiterate that the billion dollar bubble stock buybacks are solely a fireable offense. Dismiss the entire board if they approved the repurchases.

FWIW last time I was in the Lakewood, CA Best Buy they still have a few Netflix gift cards in the TV department. These are grandfathered in at the old $8.99/month combo plan that no longer exists. They're pretty much OOS everywhere but it's a bargain if you find it at your local Best Buy. They honor the grandfathered value of the GC whatever your current plan is; for me, it's streaming only.

 

[dwell]

Is there no bottom?

 

[Pulsar]

No there isn't, because they continue to do STUPID shit.

Now their star system is broken. My already-watched movies are showing back up in my unwatched movie que with their star ratings removed, like that's going to make me watch them again. At the same time, the amount of new content that they've added in the last 2 months has been laughable.

Netflix is dying due to their own stupidity.

 

[ShawnD1]

Is there no bottom?

Fascinating!

from page 1

According to your chart, it looks like regression to the mean. The graph shows a fairly consistent growth until 2010 then it goes from 50 to 300 in less than a year. It will drop below 100 for sure.