- Mar 22, 2004
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'Neocons' empowered by Bush win
By JANINE ZACHARIA
WASHINGTON
US President George W. Bush's victory over Senator John Kerry could trigger the promotion, rather than the replacement, of the architects of the Iraq war and lead to little reevaluation of his current foreign policy approach, political observers said Wednesday
.
The neoconservative thinkers, led in part by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, who pushed hard for the war ? which has turned into a budget-busting occupation plagued by chaos and violence ? are expected by some to achieve even greater prominence over the next four years.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, despite calls for his resignation following the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, is expected to remain in his post. And there is wide speculation that National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice will replace Secretary of State Colin Powell, with Wolfowitz replacing Rice as the president's chief adviser on security and international issues. Wolfowitz could also be considered for the secretary of state job, sources here say.
Other Bush loyalists, including Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton, are expected to be promoted.
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, predicted that Bush would not "in any way be shy about putting the people he wants where he wants them... So if he wants Wolfowitz as secretary of state or defense, he'll go for it even if the rest of Washington is saying he's too much the architect of a troubled Iraq policy."
A strengthened Republican majority in the Senate will also make it easier for Bush to appoint people to foreign policy positions that require Senate approval.
The war in Iraq, both Republicans and Democrats agree, afflicted, rather than benefited, Bush's race for the White House. But unlike in 2000, Bush won a clear majority of the popular vote ? 51 percent ? in what the White House is describing as a fresh mandate to continue along its foreign and domestic agendas.
"He got elected in spite of public dissatisfaction over Iraq," CNN political analyst Bill Schneider said.
But Bush's leadership in the war on terrorism seemed to trump possible disillusionment among the majority of voters about the outcome so far in Iraq. And, in the end, Iraq proved hardly a top concern despite its prominence late in the campaign. Twenty-one percent of American voters cited moral values as the issue that mattered most when voting, followed by the economy (20%), terrorism (18%), and Iraq (15%).
"The Iraq war was probably on balance not helpful to the president. On the other hand, when voters looked at who they wanted to lead them in defending the country, in the war on terror, and more broadly, I think they decided they wanted Bush," said Richard Perle, a leader of the neoconservative movement that has advocated using US power to affect democratic change around the world. "They just didn't have the same confidence in Kerry."
"There's a mandate for his leadership. And I don't think the public is going to second-guess the tactical decisions that are made with respect to Iraq. The country understood perfectly well that reelecting him meant continuing a vigorous effort to win the war in Iraq," Perle added.
If the neoconservatives do remain prominent in the second term, calls from the more realist voices in the Republican Party for deeper mediation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be tamped out. What happens to Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat will be decisive in the Bush administration's thinking as to whether or not to engage more deeply.
Asked if Bush would feel compelled to become involved in peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians should Arafat die, Perle said, " I don't think he'd feel compelled. I think he'd see an opportunity."
More broadly, O'Hanlon predicted Bush would continue to act boldly, even if his moves are unpopular with a large portion of the US populace and abroad.
"He's not going to change his strategy from the first term, which was to just go for it," he said. "If you had an idea go for it. Whether it was in domestic politics or in international relations, have the courage of your convictions and go with the people you want to have around you."
"He's convinced overthrowing Saddam was the right thing and that a lot of people just didn't really have the backbone to support what was necessary," O'Hanlon added.
It is that conviction, coupled with a steady stream of ideas from advisers, that has made Bush an active president internationally. But O'Hanlon says Bush will at the same time not be manipulated in his next term by zealous neoconservatives, citing the hunger of thinkers like Wolfowitz to see regime change in Iran.
"He's the president. He can make decisions. He doesn't have to overthrow the government in Iran just because the neocons want him too," he said.
So, I am guessing that there are some of you out there that are pretty damned worried? :shocked:
'Neocons' empowered by Bush win
By JANINE ZACHARIA
WASHINGTON
US President George W. Bush's victory over Senator John Kerry could trigger the promotion, rather than the replacement, of the architects of the Iraq war and lead to little reevaluation of his current foreign policy approach, political observers said Wednesday
.
The neoconservative thinkers, led in part by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, who pushed hard for the war ? which has turned into a budget-busting occupation plagued by chaos and violence ? are expected by some to achieve even greater prominence over the next four years.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, despite calls for his resignation following the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, is expected to remain in his post. And there is wide speculation that National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice will replace Secretary of State Colin Powell, with Wolfowitz replacing Rice as the president's chief adviser on security and international issues. Wolfowitz could also be considered for the secretary of state job, sources here say.
Other Bush loyalists, including Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton, are expected to be promoted.
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, predicted that Bush would not "in any way be shy about putting the people he wants where he wants them... So if he wants Wolfowitz as secretary of state or defense, he'll go for it even if the rest of Washington is saying he's too much the architect of a troubled Iraq policy."
A strengthened Republican majority in the Senate will also make it easier for Bush to appoint people to foreign policy positions that require Senate approval.
The war in Iraq, both Republicans and Democrats agree, afflicted, rather than benefited, Bush's race for the White House. But unlike in 2000, Bush won a clear majority of the popular vote ? 51 percent ? in what the White House is describing as a fresh mandate to continue along its foreign and domestic agendas.
"He got elected in spite of public dissatisfaction over Iraq," CNN political analyst Bill Schneider said.
But Bush's leadership in the war on terrorism seemed to trump possible disillusionment among the majority of voters about the outcome so far in Iraq. And, in the end, Iraq proved hardly a top concern despite its prominence late in the campaign. Twenty-one percent of American voters cited moral values as the issue that mattered most when voting, followed by the economy (20%), terrorism (18%), and Iraq (15%).
"The Iraq war was probably on balance not helpful to the president. On the other hand, when voters looked at who they wanted to lead them in defending the country, in the war on terror, and more broadly, I think they decided they wanted Bush," said Richard Perle, a leader of the neoconservative movement that has advocated using US power to affect democratic change around the world. "They just didn't have the same confidence in Kerry."
"There's a mandate for his leadership. And I don't think the public is going to second-guess the tactical decisions that are made with respect to Iraq. The country understood perfectly well that reelecting him meant continuing a vigorous effort to win the war in Iraq," Perle added.
If the neoconservatives do remain prominent in the second term, calls from the more realist voices in the Republican Party for deeper mediation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be tamped out. What happens to Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat will be decisive in the Bush administration's thinking as to whether or not to engage more deeply.
Asked if Bush would feel compelled to become involved in peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians should Arafat die, Perle said, " I don't think he'd feel compelled. I think he'd see an opportunity."
More broadly, O'Hanlon predicted Bush would continue to act boldly, even if his moves are unpopular with a large portion of the US populace and abroad.
"He's not going to change his strategy from the first term, which was to just go for it," he said. "If you had an idea go for it. Whether it was in domestic politics or in international relations, have the courage of your convictions and go with the people you want to have around you."
"He's convinced overthrowing Saddam was the right thing and that a lot of people just didn't really have the backbone to support what was necessary," O'Hanlon added.
It is that conviction, coupled with a steady stream of ideas from advisers, that has made Bush an active president internationally. But O'Hanlon says Bush will at the same time not be manipulated in his next term by zealous neoconservatives, citing the hunger of thinkers like Wolfowitz to see regime change in Iran.
"He's the president. He can make decisions. He doesn't have to overthrow the government in Iran just because the neocons want him too," he said.
So, I am guessing that there are some of you out there that are pretty damned worried? :shocked:
You have 8 years, right? 12 More would make for a nice retirement check.
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