Neither Obama or Clinton will have enough delegates by the convention.

[techs]

I saw an interesting analysis that shows the even if Obama or Clinton get a huge momentum going it is alost impossible for either to have enough pledged delegates to win the nomination without the superdelegates.
This is due to the large number of superdelegates.
So it is a certainty that going into the convention it will be up to the superdelegates.
Unless both candidates sit down and decide who gets the nomination.

Here's what I see happening.
Since Hillary (I believe) will have more delegates than Obama and more superdelegates, in fact enough to get the nomination, she will offer the VP to Obama to keep the nominatin from appearing to be decided by the unelected superdelegates.
I am guessing Obama will accept the VP nod.
If Obama has more delegates than Hillary, but Hillary has enough superdelegates to get the nomination its up for grabs whether Hillary or Obama is on top and the other the VP. I think Hillary would agree to the VP spot under these circumstances.
If Obama gets a majority of the delegates AND has enough superdelegates to win, then Hillary will still be offered the VP. And she will accept.

I can't think of scenario at this point where it won't be Hillary AND Obama on the ticket.

 

[Farang]

I think you're wrong on a few things. First, I disagree that Clinton will win pledged delegates but we'll just have to see.

Second, neither will have enough delegates unless the supers start pledging publicly. What I think the general feeling is is that once once a clear winner emerges they will. So if Clinton fails in Texas and Ohio and it is clear she won't win the pledged, the supers will start having to decide whether or not to override the popular vote. This will be done by June at the latest.

If Obama wins both supers and pledged Clinton does not get the VP slot. In fact I can't imagine a scenario in which she does, or in which she accepts.

 

[nonameo]

I don't think hillary will ever accept a VP spot.

 

[Farang]

Also you have to consider Clinton or Obama withdrawing before even allowing the supers to override the popular vote. First, it would be almost certain November disaster for either candidate, and more importantly if that bid fails they will have no political future. Imagine the hatred for either if they started going after the supers once they'd obviously lost the popular vote.

Since this is more or less Clinton's last chance she is more likely to try than Obama, but I could see her just stepping aside if the voters didn't go for her. If she had any ethics.

 

[Vic]

Hey look, techs has gone from "it's over" to Hillary and Obama being on the ticket together! Who wants to bet that he's wrong about that too?

 

[Lemon law]

In MHO, the time to pimp candidates on P&N is over. Now is the time for the American people to weigh in, and after that we can maybe comment on the various possibilities.

There are a large number of February and March primaries to go before the super delegates
may be forced to intervene.

So my prediction is no prediction. Let the voice of the American people be heard.

 

[Nitemare]

Originally posted by: nonameo
I don't think hillary will ever accept a VP spot.

Obama will have a death wish if he chooses that black widow to be his VP

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Vic
Hey look, techs has gone from "it's over" to Hillary and Obama being on the ticket together! Who wants to bet that he's wrong about that too?

:laugh: :thumbsup: :laugh:

 

[ProfJohn]

We have to remember that this is Bill and Hillary we are talking about, so all bets are off the table.

If they enter the conventions with the popular vote close and the elected delegates close I could certainly see Bill and Hillary trying to make the argument that Hillary is most likely to win in the fall.

Then we will see charts and graphs that show how Obama only won in states where the Democrats don?t have a chance of winning in the fall etc.

We also have the issue of the Florida and Michigan delegates and what happens to them.

BTW a Hillary/Obama ticket would be great for Republicans.
Two northern liberals AND you get the anti-Hillary vote out in force.

Good deal.

 

[superstition]

BTW a Hillary/Obama ticket would be great for Republicans. Two northern liberals AND you get the anti-Hillary vote out in force. Good deal.

You also energize female voters and black voters. McCain hasn't energized conservatives. Maybe he'll adopt Huckabee as his VP choice?

 

[Lemon law]

The VP choice is made by the party nominee on both sides. Since even McCain is not a certainty yet, its way premature.

Long ago I warned of the dangers of front loading primaries to get party nominees nailed down early, risking events discrediting the party nominee. More of a danger for
the repubs this year, because if McCain is the early nominee, and Iraqi violence greatly increases well before the general election, the GOP could be doomed in the general election as we all learn the surge was a bust. And if GWB meddling inside of Pakistan causes a Pakistani meltdown, it could rebound on Obama and the GOP.

 

[Rockinacoustic]

Originally posted by: superstition

BTW a Hillary/Obama ticket would be great for Republicans. Two northern liberals AND you get the anti-Hillary vote out in force. Good deal.

You also energize female voters and black voters. McCain hasn't energized conservatives. Maybe he'll adopt Huckabee as his VP choice?

Huckabee wants nothing to do with the VP position.

 

[StageLeft]

In fact I'd be VERY surprised if they combine forces. Obama would gain nothing by giving her a VP spot. She'd gain, but ultimately is still not liked and will stand a great chance of losing the election for the dems.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
In MHO, the time to pimp candidates on P&N is over.

*GASP* :Q :Q :Q
LEMON! I can't believe you would use that word so soon after how much it hurt poor poor Chelsea just this week! shame on you sir... SHAME on you!

 

[Zedtom]

Looking at the scenarios that might unfold if the convention turns into a deadlock makes me yearn for a white knight to appear and unify the democratic party. A man who could lead the party to victory against any republican challenger. A man who has no skeletons in his closet for swiftboaters to exploit. A man who has the experience, knowledge and strength to lead our country.

Mr. Gore, your party and your country needs you.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Looking at the scenarios that might unfold if the convention turns into a deadlock makes me yearn for a white knight to appear and unify the democratic party. A man who could lead the party to victory against any republican challenger. A man who has no skeletons in his closet for swiftboaters to exploit. A man who has the experience, knowledge and strength to lead our country.

Mr. Gore, your party and your country needs you.

That makes about as much sense as him announcing his candidacy January 19, 2009.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Mr. Gore, your party and your country needs you.

...To endorse Barack Obama. :laugh:

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: Vic
Hey look, techs has gone from "it's over" to Hillary and Obama being on the ticket together! Who wants to bet that he's wrong about that too?

Yes, this thread confuses me as it was all over one week ago.

Oh wait, Ohio, PA, and TX will be the firewalls!

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Hillary will win, Pabster will cry, i will laugh.

I mean seriously, i even read a poster on THIS forum where we can be assumed to be reasonably educated and he said Obama was a Muslim, it was Pabsters best butt buddy too, Mystyplyx or whatever he's called and you'd think it was for fun, but it wasn't.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield
Hillary will win, Pabster will cry, i will laugh.

It's tough to laugh when your mouth is full of crow. :laugh:

Marked for later perusal. :laugh:

 

[FoBoT]

wrong
Obama will get more pledged delegates

Democrats will stick with what they said in 2000, 'popular vote is what counts' , 'no insiders deciding', 'power of the people' , so Obama gets the nomination

i don't know if he would put her as VP, i certainly hope not

 

[M0RPH]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
In fact I'd be VERY surprised if they combine forces. Obama would gain nothing by giving her a VP spot. She'd gain, but ultimately is still not liked and will stand a great chance of losing the election for the dems.

Wow, you can't even give Hillary credit for adding value to the ticket as VP. You are filled with spite for her so your opinions have no objectivity.

The truth is an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket is a dream ticket that could not lose. So many people are eager to see a woman president or a black president, and so many people have lamented the fact that finally we have two qualified candidates who can make it happen, but we have to choose between the two. Having them run together would be the next best thing.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: FoBoT
wrong
Obama will get more pledged delegates

Democrats will stick with what they said in 2000, 'popular vote is what counts' , 'no insiders deciding', 'power of the people' , so Obama gets the nomination

i don't know if he would put her as VP, i certainly hope not

^ Agree.

An older more (foreign especially) experienced person would make a better VP candidate IMO. Future events/developments could also impact the VP selection, as well as Obama's willingness to accept a "powerful" VP role in his admin. I.e., his ego or humility. Is it gonna be a Gore or a Cheney?

If Iraq takes a turn for the worse, Biden with all his years of foreign policy experience and his Iraqi partitioning plan could make him a good VP candidate. Biden would make a good Cabinet choice too.

If the economy is the big deal, he'll look elsewhere. Bloomberg? If he's willing he might make a very good/popular VP candidate. He'd be our first Jewish VP too.

Fern

 

[nageov3t]

Obama's got it wrapped up.

I wonder if Hillary will make a clean drop out in exchange for a couple high-profile senate chairmanships.