Nehalem - Waiting Risky?

[guptasa1]

Hey all,

I'm at a crossroads. I keep waiting on upgrading machines and was all set to go with something in the near future on the now mature X48 chipset, quad core processor, etc. Part of me, however, is worried about Nehalem and thinks maybe I should wait, because even though I can build an awesome rig now, my upgrade path as far as processor is essentially nonexistant.

On the other hand, I can't help but feeling Nehalem is going to be so new and different, and even if I were to be an early adopter, I might regret it due to several revisions before they have a final spec for mobos and even processors. How likely is it the socket may change in the early months and future processors won't be compatible, etc.? Any expert opinions? I know this chipset is going to do some impressive new things, which should mean a big jump in performance, but it also sounds like a lot of new problems could crop up as well...

(As to when I need a PC, I could really, really use an upgrade now...but I also *could* wait another 6 months or so if I really wanted to).

Thanks for any thoughts on this. I'm still really leaning towards soon, but I don't want to regret it.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Go ahead and build now. It will be way more than six months before Nehalem becomes available and anywhere near affordable. The first platform coming out will be highend server stuff, with the cheapest 6core cpu's likely over $1000, and the motherboards and of course DDR3 ram will also be crazy.

And the truth of the matter is unless you have some seriously intense multithreaded apps or are a folding fiend, you won't see a great improvement in most all general apps and games with Nehalem. Look how long duals and quad have been out and still hardly any games or apps scale from 2 to 4 cores and many still don't stress a dual.

Having 6 cores + 30% performance clock for clock sounds very sexy, but the reality is games are still very much GPU bound at higher resolutions and nehalem 6x isn't going provide much over any decently clock C2D. And IMO the multi-tasking argument everyone makes when promoting 4x over 2x cpu's makes some sense but I don't beleive it holds up going from 4x to 6x

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: GuitarDaddy
Go ahead and build now. It will be way more than six months before Nehalem becomes available and anywhere near affordable. The first platform coming out will be highend server stuff, with the cheapest 6core cpu's likely over $1000, and the motherboards and of course DDR3 ram will also be crazy.

And the truth of the matter is unless you have some seriously intense multithreaded apps or are a folding fiend, you won't see a great improvement in most all general apps and games with Nehalem. Look how long duals and quad have been out and still hardly any games or apps scale from 2 to 4 cores and many still don't stress a dual.

Having 6 cores + 30% performance clock for clock sounds very sexy, but the reality is games are still very much GPU bound at higher resolutions and nehalem 6x isn't going provide much over any decently clock C2D. And IMO the multi-tasking argument everyone makes when promoting 4x over 2x cpu's makes some sense but I don't beleive it holds up going from 4x to 6x

Replace all the "6" talking points with "8" and your post is golden advice at this time.

(a quad-core Nehalem will support 8 threads simultaneously thanks to hyperthreading...there are no 6-core Nehalems planned for desktop at this time)

 

[Andrew1990]

Hmm, anyone remember the socket 423 days? It was replaced in what, a year by S478?

I say buy now, worry later. I mean, what game besides Crysis really needs more performance than what the current Quad cores can give?

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Andrew1990
Hmm, anyone remember the socket 423 days? It was replaced in what, a year by S478?

I say buy now, worry later. I mean, what game besides Crysis really needs more performance than what the current Quad cores can give?

I suspect the Nehalem sockets will be here to stay for a while due to the fact that there is zero memory changes on the horizon.

No one has even breathed a mention of what is to come after DDR3 and it could only be a memory change (DDR4 or whatever is planned to replace DDR3) to spur a socket change-out.

That said, how many people buy a CPU and mobo and then 1-2yrs later are interested in only upgrading the CPU? Usually mobo's have a lot of improvements (USB, SATA, DIMMs, PCIe 2.0, etc) that go on as well as general stability improvements in the meantime.

So whether the nehalem socket this fall is the same socket for Westmere in 1-2 yrs time the odds are pretty good that you'll want to upgrade to whatever the latest and greatest mainstream mobo's have to offer at the time when you replace that nehalem with a westmere anyways.

 

[Lonyo]

Well what do you have now?
You might be better off going with a reasonable Core 2 system (P35/Q6600/4GB RAM sort of thing) and then saving the rest of your money for 18 months or so (end of 2009) when you can look at getting a Nehalem when they've settled and DDR3 prices have come down from where they are now.

6 month Nehalem will supposedly be the high end/upper mainstream products which are LGA1366 IIRC, and might be limited in the future to more expensive/higher end processors if you want to upgrade in the future, but obviously no one really knows yet (which is another reason not to bet on what might be).

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: Idontcare
I suspect the Nehalem sockets will be here to stay for a while due to the fact that there is zero memory changes on the horizon.

That's true, but even if the socket doesn't change, the chipset that's required will. Just like you can't use a C2D today on a 915, 925, or most 945 chipsets, I highly doubt you'll be able to use a first generation Nehalem chipset with a Westmere, even if they use the same socket.

 

[Akabeth]

..

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: myocardia

Originally posted by: Idontcare
I suspect the Nehalem sockets will be here to stay for a while due to the fact that there is zero memory changes on the horizon.

That's true, but even if the socket doesn't change, the chipset that's required will. Just like you can't use a C2D today on a 915, 925, or most 945 chipsets, I highly doubt you'll be able to use a first generation Nehalem chipset with a Westmere, even if they use the same socket.

Absolutely, you can bet every mobo maker out there is depending on Intel to continue to ensure a consistent planned obsolescence roadmap to fuel a perpetual upgrade cycle that includes more than just Intel.

 

[aigomorla]

unless you have the budget in computer spending that will rival mine.

Dont think about neha for at least 1 yr.

7 months if you can dish out a mid 4 figure bill.

Othewise maybe up to 1 yr or more.

 

[Acanthus]

Nehalem will be prohibitvely expensive at launch as it wont be mainstream for quite a while.

Youll be better off with a 45nm quad now and cheap DDR2, then going Nehalem later for a big boost when it actually trickles down to us mortal men.

 

[guptasa1]

Thanks so much guys! I think, being I use my PC for everything (work, games...it's my life basically) and also because there are some good points about obsolescence/early chipsets not likely to support later CPU's, it's probably my best bet to upgrade now.

Yes, Nehalem will be faster, but I'll have tried and true with a great reputation, and hey, I can always replace mobo and processor later but keep the rest of the configuration (save maybe RAM, and I'm strongly considering X48/DDR3 anyways).

As far as what I'm on now, a P4 Northwood 2.6 GHz (400 MHz FSB) with 1GB RDRAM and a GeForce 6800...so...yeah...kinda need an upgrade. ;o) This baby's almost 7 years old now (upgrades along the way, but still)!

 

[Genx87]

I honestly wouldnt expect to see one of these chips in a mid range consumer product until the 2nd quarter of next year. Main reason why I went with a minor upgrade from an E6600 to E8400 in May instead. Ill build a new rig next Summer\Fall.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I honestly wouldnt expect to see one of these chips in a mid range consumer product until the 2nd quarter of next year. Main reason why I went with a minor upgrade from an E6600 to E8400 in May instead. Ill build a new rig next Summer\Fall.

Given the dreadfully slow transition we witnessed in the desktop market for Penryn (versus the rapid ramp to volumes in the Xeon server SKU's) I will be 100% absolutely surprised if Intel does not delay their widespread mainstream and low-cost Nehalem based CPU's for the 32nm shrink (westmere).

Were I an Intel shareholder I'd be truly pissed if Intel canabilizes their desktop Penryn sales with Nehalem sales without maintaining (at a minimum) or elevating (the desired result) their gross margins and profit on operations.

As a 45nm Nehalem CPU will no doubt cost more to produce than a 45nm Penryn CPU (both the die size is larger and the logic/cache area ratio is larger for Nehalem -> means lower yields, no question about it) Intel is going to have to sell 45nm Nehalem for a higher price than corresponding Penryn chips, and that means no low-cost Nehalems until they shrink that die-size.

 

[BassBomb]

Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

 

[aigomorla]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

As a 45nm Nehalem CPU will no doubt cost more to produce than a 45nm Penryn CPU (both the die size is larger and the logic/cache area ratio is larger for Nehalem -> means lower yields, no question about it) Intel is going to have to sell 45nm Nehalem for a higher price than corresponding Penryn chips, and that means no low-cost Nehalems until they shrink that die-size.

i understand now why you went though hell rant when intel said they wouldnt expand research on litho now.

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: Idontcare
As a 45nm Nehalem CPU will no doubt cost more to produce than a 45nm Penryn CPU (both the die size is larger and the logic/cache area ratio is larger for Nehalem -> means lower yields, no question about it) Intel is going to have to sell 45nm Nehalem for a higher price than corresponding Penryn chips, and that means no low-cost Nehalems until they shrink that die-size.

My guess is that they will release the LGA 1171 Nehalems when they said they would, at ~twice the price of an equivalent frequency Penryn. That way, they get no bad press for a paper launch, while making very nice profits on both families. It's just a guess, though. I was wrong one other time in the past.

 

[jgigz]

Originally posted by: BassBomb
Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

Yup.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: jgigz

Originally posted by: BassBomb
Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

Yup.

Correction...some Nehalem will, not all.

 

[guptasa1]

Hmmm - great info all - thanks! =o)

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: guptasa1
Thanks so much guys! I think, being I use my PC for everything (work, games...it's my life basically) and also because there are some good points about obsolescence/early chipsets not likely to support later CPU's, it's probably my best bet to upgrade now.

Yes, Nehalem will be faster, but I'll have tried and true with a great reputation, and hey, I can always replace mobo and processor later but keep the rest of the configuration (save maybe RAM, and I'm strongly considering X48/DDR3 anyways).

As far as what I'm on now, a P4 Northwood 2.6 GHz (400 MHz FSB) with 1GB RDRAM and a GeForce 6800...so...yeah...kinda need an upgrade. ;o) This baby's almost 7 years old now (upgrades along the way, but still)!

You can get a 45nm quad for ~ $300 that will oc to 3.2 with minimal effort and closer to 3.6 with a little more determination (see my two for examples of each). Don't waste money on an x48 mobo unless you want to go crossfire AND you plan to keep it for a LONG time. In your situation with nehalem lurking around the horizon I'd go with a cheap p35 mobo like a ds3L or ip35e and ddr2. If you want a little peace of mind you can get a ds3r for $107 AR shipped at newegg but that's the most I would spend on a mobo. 2x1gb ddr2 is ~ $30 AR right now for high quality 4-4-4-12 pc 6400, so you could get a good mobo, 4 gb ram, and a quad that will oc to a very high level for ~ $ 500 (figuring $40 for a decent aftermarket cooler). That should tide you over until 2h 09 when nehalem mainstream will likely actually arrive, and you'll have a nice enough system that you'll be able to wait a while for 32nm or cheaper nehalem prices at least if you so choose.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: jgigz

Originally posted by: BassBomb
Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

Yup.

Correction...some Nehalem will, not all.

Are you positive? I'm thinking you are thinking of QPI (which is not the IMC) as there are SKU's with and without QPI...the architecture of Nehalem pretty much requires it to have an IMC to my understanding.

 

[palladium]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: jgigz

Originally posted by: BassBomb
Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

Yup.

Correction...some Nehalem will, not all.

Are you positive? I'm thinking you are thinking of QPI (which is not the IMC) as there are SKU's with and without QPI...the architecture of Nehalem pretty much requires it to have an IMC to my understanding.

Yeah, I thought all Nehalems have IMC, some Nehalems have integrated GPU on die.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: jgigz

Originally posted by: BassBomb
Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

Yup.

Correction...some Nehalem will, not all.

Are you positive? I'm thinking you are thinking of QPI (which is not the IMC) as there are SKU's with and without QPI...the architecture of Nehalem pretty much requires it to have an IMC to my understanding.

I am not positive...but I believe it to be true (I have been looking for confirmation either way, but to no avail as of yet).
The last I heard there will be 4 different sockets, with/without QPI and with/without IMC.

palladium
"some Nehalems have integrated GPU on die"

Huh???
The only place I have even heard of that as a rumour was some Japanese website that printed it as a joke...do you have a good source?

 

[palladium]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Idontcare

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: jgigz

Originally posted by: BassBomb
Does nehalem have on die memory controller?

Yup.

Correction...some Nehalem will, not all.

Are you positive? I'm thinking you are thinking of QPI (which is not the IMC) as there are SKU's with and without QPI...the architecture of Nehalem pretty much requires it to have an IMC to my understanding.

I am not positive...but I believe it to be true (I have been looking for confirmation either way, but to no avail as of yet).
The last I heard there will be 4 different sockets, with/without QPI and with/without IMC.

palladium
"some Nehalems have integrated GPU on die"

Huh???
The only place I have even heard of that as a rumour was some Japanese website that printed it as a joke...do you have a good source?

Oops, my bad.. it should read " some Nehalems have an integrated GPU on the same CPU package, as opposed to on the same die."

If you want source,here ( scroll to bottom) and here you go