First, it's worth noting that it's pretty much impossible to completely prevent someone from automating their way to said download page, unless you use an actual login scheme. The best you can do is make it difficult to circumvent.
The easiest thing to do would be to have the "I agree" button post to a script that checks the server "referrer" variable. This variable contains the address of the page that led the user to the current page - check if this is the "I agree" page and allow if it is, otherwise deny. Using Perl and Apache, something like:
if( $ENV{HTTP_REFERER} eq "/agree_to_terms.html" ) {
print "heres the download link";
else {
print "you didnt agree to stuff";
}
This is "relatively" easy to circumvent, but enough to keep most people out. For a more sophisticated route, you can use something like Nothinman suggested. Just be aware that a bot could replicate any of these steps if someone cared enough to do so.