well can't say much but flash has sort of already become a de facto standard for web animation. Plug in doesn't take too long to download and virtually all IE4+ browsers have support for it. IE5 I believe already has it built in.
Falsh has been a standard (i.e. installed with the app) plug-in for a while now on both IE and Netscape -- I'd say it's even more universally implemented than Adobe's PDF! Plus, you can download Flash for free very easily.
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