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Near Earth Asteroid Research

kzinti1

kzinti1

Junior Member
I was wondering if there's a DC program for computing the orbits of these things. Finding these asteroids is one thing. Computing the probability of an Earth intersecting orbit is quite another.
Searching for disease cures is very altruistic. Searching for an ET signal is, as well.
Searching for an asteroid that could cause global destruction and the extinction of all life on Earth seems, to me at least, of greater concern as all the other DC programs combined.
 
If it can be helped by DC crunching we'll do it. 😉 Though, I've never heard any mention that lack of computer power has effected computation of orbits. Good idea nevertheless, let us know if you find anything. 🙂
 
Sounds like a good cause, but I am left wondering, what would we do with the knowledge that a big rock was going to kill us all? For that matter, those who research these things seem to have the computing power they need, but suppose they did locate one that would wipe out the earth some day? What steps could be taken to prepare for its arrival, other than everybody going wild and doing whatever they want to because everyone's going to be dead in a few months?

Not trying to dismiss any concerns or put down any (potential) projects, but I'm curious as to the usefulness of something like that...
 
That's the problem. I don't know how to phrase a relevant query as a Google Search as to this idea. My 1st hit using "N.E.A.R." as a search parameter gave a rather interesting link to Johns-Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab.
I just thought one of my fellow forumites might be, or know, an astro-physicist that would know if such a program exists.
 
Originally posted by: kzinti1
That's the problem. I don't know how to phrase a relevant query as a Google Search as to this idea. My 1st hit using "N.E.A.R." as a search parameter gave a rather interesting link to Johns-Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab.
I just thought one of my fellow forumites might be, or know, an astro-physicist that would know if such a program exists.
Click to expand...
Well, though I don't know anything that might be of use to you, I wish you luck in your search. Hopefully you shall find something useful soon, perhaps with the help of one or more of our wonderful TeAmmates... 🙂
 
Sorry! I was replying while you were. Destruction of such an asteroid wouldn't work, of course. That would make a single projectile into a very large load of buckshot.
All it takes is a gentle nudge in the right direction. Anything from rocket engines embedded in the surface to simple mass-drivers. It all depends on the size and foreknowledge of the object, its speed, its trajectory.
Asteroids, meteors and rogue comets are a scientific fact. The sky really is falling. Every single second. Usually in pieces the size of a grain of sand. Take a look at the moon. Those craters weren't always there, you know?
With all the accumulated knowledge we've amassed over the centuries it would be stupid to ignore such a possibility when we could, quite possibly, be able to avert such a disaster.
 
Originally posted by: kzinti1
Sorry! I was replying while you were. Destruction of such an asteroid wouldn't work, of course. That would make a single projectile into a very large load of buckshot.
All it takes is a gentle nudge in the right direction. Anything from rocket engines embedded in the surface to simple mass-drivers. It all depends on the size and foreknowledge of the object, its speed, its trajectory.
Asteroids, meteors and rogue comets are a scientific fact. The sky really is falling. Every single second. Usually in pieces the size of a grain of sand. Take a look at the moon. Those craters weren't always there, you know?
With all the accumulated knowledge we've amassed over the centuries it would be stupid to ignore such a possibility when we could, quite possibly, be able to avert such a disaster.
Click to expand...
I thought of nukes, but realized right away that such a method would not work.

Your suggestion of utilizing some sort of force to change the path of the object, however, seems to be quite reasonable to my physics-challenged mind. 🙂
 
I don't think that there is a DC project dedicated to this topic. But as a starting point you can check out the JPL site:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Be sure to check out the orbit diagrams!

Brought to you by your friendly neighborhood astrophysicist. 🙂
 
You can use nukes to push away a large object. Just detonate it near enough to the object to push it off it's course while still not totally destroying it.
 
There was an article in Scientific American about this a few months ago. Not exactly sure which month though. IIRC there is no lack of computing power in this area as we usually know ~10 years in advance when something is even going to come close to the earth.
The authors point of view was that the current plans, detonating nukes, wouldn't work because of the buckshot problem as kzinti1 pointed out. His suggestion was a very delicate steering operation which involves an apparatus powered by solar sails pushing an asteroid off course very slowly over a period of a couple of years. The biggest risk was the asteroid just falling apart.
I personally think a well placed nuke, far enough in advance would work just fine. The chances of anything hitting the earth are so minimal that you'd only have to make a tiny change to the one asteroid that was going to hit us and we'd be fine. Imagine blowing a nuke on the front of an asteroid. You'd either spray pieces in all directions (no chance they'll hit the earth then) or you'd slow the bulk of the asteroid somewhat. Slowing it down will prevent it from hitting the earth unless the two are on a head-on collision course which is extremely unlikely even given the already unlikely proposition of a collision at all.
It's good that we're all thinking about this stuff though 😀
 
Keep in mind that a nuclear warhead is a "heat bomb" primarily. It causes its main destruction by nearly instantaneous superheating of the air and solids around it. They don't make good space weapons. Detonating it in the path of an asteroid would be little more effective than farting in the path of an oncoming train. A nuke has to at least impact the object, and probably best if tunneled >25% of the diameter.

Pushing is best. From millions of miles away, trajectory changes need relatively small forces.

Hitting it with a high power laser from moderate to long distances could be very effective if the object wasn't spinning too rapidly. As the heated material vaporizes, it would create its own stream of high speed particles. Equal and opposite forces being what they are, it would slowly move away from the direction the beam was coming from. For spinning masses, you could pulse the laser in sync with it so that it always hit the same spot at the same angle.

interesting topic. Not very DC, but interesting.
 
If you read Carl Sagans Book A Pale Blue Dot, you will find there are many reasons not to search for near earth astroids. Gotta go to work now but I will update later with many of the reasons that he gives one of which is the possibility of missuse and tragectory changes made to the astroids on purpose to impact an unsuspecting nation. With very few objects (considering the total number) mapped the probability of one being at the precise orbit around the sun and the correct trajectory with the earth is slim, but if you have countless astroids map the is a better pool to choose from for doing this sort of thing. Just a thought
 
I would say that building a fleet of shuttles specifically for the purpose of ramming the meteor would be more effective. I'm thinking of remotely kamakazeeing a bunch of shuttles (one at a time) into the surface of an oncoming meteor would have a more significant chance of effecting the meteor's trajectory than a bomb, as the shuttles' mass would amount to more momentum than a nuclear warhead.

Martin
 
I think we should just use a bunch of nuclear "bunker busters" (the things that can penetrate a hardend building) say a megaton yeild a peice (china has a few this big so thier possible) put 5 or so all on the same side as the astroid and when the timing is right detonate them all at the same time. most likely will blow a good chunk of the astroid up and the remaing parts will be on different paths not heading in earth direction.

my guess is a hardend warhead traveling with a decent propultion system for a year to reach the astroid would be going at a good enough clip to embed itself pretty deep in the astroid
 
Originally posted by: trevinom
I would say that building a fleet of shuttles specifically for the purpose of ramming the meteor would be more effective. I'm thinking of remotely kamakazeeing a bunch of shuttles (one at a time) into the surface of an oncoming meteor would have a more significant chance of effecting the meteor's trajectory than a bomb, as the shuttles' mass would amount to more momentum than a nuclear warhead.

Martin
Click to expand...

That would take alot more fuel than we could ever get into one spot. A single impact point collision with a rocket wouldn't do much good as most asteroids are loose chunks of rock floating around together. At best you'd push a few of them out of the way, but I'd guess all you'd do is rearrange them a bit.
The more I think about it though, the less effective a nuclear bomb seems to be (given JonB's post and the fact that most asteroids are loosely coupled buncheds of large rocks, not a single giant chunk). But I'm no astrophysicist, of course.
 
The meteor that hit Flagstaff, Arizona that created a crater 2.4 miles in diameter and 150 feet and probably did alot of damage on a geographic scale was only about 150 feet across by most estimates.
I think that a space shuttle ramming into one of these puppies would make a big impact on it's trajectory. I would venture that a meteor 3-5 times this size might still be suceptible to a metallic aircraft that weighs a few hundred tons coming at it at 10-20k mph.


 
There's a few key differences there: 2.4 miles is a tiny splash on the earth. Looking down from space, there would be essentially no change in the earth's trajectory or shape, etc. Granted, an aircraft is closer to the size of a small asteroid than a 150ft asteroid is to the earth but I think most asteroids would probably be much, much bigger.
Also, as I said before, asteroids are loose collections of smaller rocks (or so I read). You might just jostle the whole bunch, or maybe set a few pieces off trajectory, but I don't think you'd push the whole lot of course.
 
I'm just saying, if we are trying to protect agains meteors, anything of the magnitude of the meteor that created Berringer crater would have wiped out New York City if it had hit it head on. If we are going to protect against meteors then the ones of this size need to be looked at. Anything much larger and it's going to be almost impossible to deviate.
 
. . . a little ot (maybe) though check it out 🙂

eh all - richard w lubrich jr here - Nobody / leonardo / the Norse

had trouble with Windoz ME - gone 2 another place 🙂))
installed XP - workz fine - still trying to cookie all my links / passwords etal . . .

here's a link for ya 'all . . . friends in Hydra - Greece . . .

< quote >

F.A.I.R.

FAIR (Future Asteroid Interception Research) is an organisation dedicated to
promoting the issues related to searching for asteroids, in particular those
that are classified as NEA's.

This is not about E.T., UFO's, new age intrigue or a promotional gimmick.
This is about hard scientific facts, endorsed by astronomers from around the
world who have a problem that they need our help with.

Films like 'Armageddon' and 'Deep Impact' whilst thrilling and fun, have
glamorised this area of space science but have done little to promote the
real issues or even to reflect reality. Contrary to the belief that 'there
must be an organisation who is responsible for coordinating and funding
asteroid research', that is the main issue - THERE ISN'T. This is a global
issue that no single government is able to address. Which is why
organisations like Spaceguard UK, to quote Jay Tate one of its founding
members, "hasn't received a penny in six years", the Crimean Observatory
have antiquated equipment and can't afford to buy a PC to process the
information they gather and Spaceguard Australia actually had to shut down
completely. A far cry from all the technical gadgetry at Bruce Willis's
disposal in Hollywood's version of asteroid interception!

So please take the time to visit F.A.I.R.

Thank you

Kelsey & David Fagan
< endquote >


from the Norse - nobody
 
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