I worked hard on this today, whule bored at work. I thought I'd share it with my ATOT friends. Just things to consider when filling out your pool brackets.
Here are some tips to help you make your NCAA Tournament picks. Before you pick the top seeds to win their games, take a look at recent tournament history from 1985-2002. (In 1985, the tournament took shape to what it is today.)
Round 1 Facts (since ?85):
Of 72 of each seed since 1985 (4 regions x 18 years):
?No #1 seed has lost to a #16 seed
?4 #2 seeds have lost to #15 (5.5%)
?13 #3 seeds have lost to #14 (18.0%)
?15 #4 seeds have lost to #13 (20.8%)
?23 #5 seeds have lost to #12 (31.9%)
?23 #6 seeds have lost to #11 (31.9%)
?29 #7 seeds have lost to #10 (40.3%)
?39 #8 seeds have lost to #9 (54.2%)
Round 2 Facts (since ?85):
The following number of teams in each seed have won their 2nd round game, and advanced to the Sweet 16:
?#1 ? 62 (86.1% of all #1 seeds advance past the 2nd round)
?#2 ? 47 (65.3%)
?#3 ? 32 (44.4%)
?#4 ? 34 (47.2%)
?#5 ? 23 (31.9%)
?#6 ? 28 (38.9%)
?#7 ? 11 (15.3%)
?#8 ? 8 (11.1%)
?#9 ? 2 (2.8%)
?#10 ? 14 (19.4%)
?#11 ? 10 (13.9%)
?#12 ? 12 (16.7%)
?#13 ? 3 (4.2%)
?#14 - 2 (2.8%)
?#15 ? 0 (0%)
?#16 - 0 (0%)
Sweet 16 Facts (since ?85):
?Each of the past 10 tournaments has had a #5 & a #6 seed in the Sweet 16. That means a #3 and a #4 lost by the 2nd round. (So more than likely, this year will have a #5 and a #6 seed in the Sweet 16.)
?Each of the past 6 tournaments has had #5, #6, and #10 seeds in the Sweet 16. That means a #2, #3, and #4 lost by the 2nd round. (You may want to consider adding a #10 seed in your Sweet 16.)
?In 3 of the past 4 tournaments, TWO #10 seeds made the Sweet 16. That means TWO #2 seeds lost by the 2nd round. (Again, add a #10 seed.)
?In 16 of the past 18 tournaments, at least one team seeded higher than #10 has made the Sweet16. (Only twice since 1985 was the Sweet 16 made up of seeds 10 and lower. Add an 11 or 12.)
?In the past 4 tournaments, when Gonzaga is seeded #10 or higher, they have made the Sweet 16. Last year they were #6, and did not make it. This year, they are #9, and would have to beat #1 Arizona to make it.
Here are Sweet 16 teams who beat their seeding (teams higher than #4 in the Sweet 16) for the past 6 tournaments:
* won their Sweet 16 game, and went on to the Elite 8
** won their Elite 8 game, and went on to Final 4
*** won their Final 4 game, and went on to Championship Game
**** National Champions
2002:
#5 Indiana***
#6 Texas
#8 UCLA
#10 Kent St.*
#11 Southern Illinois
#12 Missouri*
2001:
#5 Cincinnati
#6 USC*
#7 Penn St.
#10 Georgetown
#11 Temple*
#12 Gonzaga
2000:
#5 Florida***
#6 UCLA
#6 Purdue*
#6 Miami
#7 Tulsa*
#8 Wisconsin**
#8 North Carolina**
#10 Gonzaga
#10 Seton Hall
1999:
#5 Iowa
#6 Florida
#6 Temple*
#10 Gonzaga*
#10 Purdue
#10 Miami, OH
#12 SW Missouri St.
#13 Oklahoma
1998:
#5 Syracuse
#6 UCLA
#8 Rhode Island*
#10 West Virginia
#11 Washington
#13 Valparaiso
1997:
#5 California
#6 Louisville*
#6 Iowa State
#6 Stanford
#10 Providence*
#10 Texas
#14 Tenn-Chattanooga
Elite 8 Facts (since ?85):
?In 12 of the last 18 tournaments, at least THREE #1 seeds made the Elite 8. All FOUR #1 seeds have only made the Elite 8 in 3 of the past 18 tournaments (?01, ?93, ?87)
?The only year since 1985 to have less than TWO #1 seeds in the Elite 8 was 2000, in which 5 of the 8 were seeded #5 or higher. (So more than likely, at least TWO #1 seeds will make the Elite 8.)
Here are the Elite 8 teams of the past 6 tournaments:
* won their Elite 8 Game to make the Final 4
2002:
#5 Indiana*
#2 Oklahoma*
#1 Maryland*
#1 Kansas*
#10 Kent
#12 Missouri
#2 U Conn
#2 Oregon
2001:
#1 Duke*
#3 Maryland*
#2 Arizona*
#1 Michigan St.*
#6 USC
#1 Stanford
#1 Illinois
#11 Temple
2000:
#1 Michigan St.*
#8 Wisconsin*
#5 Florida*
#8 North Carolina*
#2 Iowa St.
#6 Purdue
#3 Oklahoma St.
#7 Tulsa
1999:
#4 Ohio St.*
#1 U Conn.*
#1 Duke*
#1 Michigan St.*
#3 St. John?s
#10 Gonzaga
#6 Temple
#3 Kentucky
1998:
#1 North Carolina*
#3 Utah*
#3 Stanford*
#2 Kentucky*
#2 Connecticut
#1 Arizona
#8 Rhode Island
#1 Duke
1997:
#1 Minnesota*
#1 Kentucky*
#1 North Carolina*
#4 Arizona*
#2 UCLA
#2 Utah
#6 Louisville
#10 Providence
Final 4 Facts (since ?85):
?Of the 72 Final 4 teams of the past 18 tournaments:
32 have been #1 seeds (44.4%)
47 have been #1 or #2 seeds (65.3%)
55 have been #1, #2, or #3 seeds (76.4%)
62 have been #1, #2, #3, or #4 seeds (86.1%)
?So only 10 of 72 Final 4 teams since 1985 have been seeded higher than #4. Four of those 10 have come in the last 3 tournaments.
Here are the Final 4 teams of the past 6 tournaments:
* won their Final 4 Game to make the Championship Game
** National Champions
2002:
#1 Maryland**
#5 Indiana*
#1 Kansas
#2 Oklahoma
2001:
#1 Duke**
#2 Arizona*
#3 Maryland
#1 Michigan St.
2000:
#1 Michigan St.**
#5 Florida*
#8 Wisconsin
#8 North Carolina
1999:
#1 U Conn.**
#1 Duke*
#1 Michigan St.
#4 Ohio St.
1998:
#2 Kentucky**
#3 Utah*
#1 North Carolina
#3 Stanford
1997:
#4 Arizona**
#1 Kentucky*
#1 North Carolina
#1 Minnesota
Championship Facts (since ?85):
?2 of the last 3 tournaments have had a #1/#5 match up in the Championship Game, with the #1 seed winning.
?The last 4 NCAA Champions were #1 seeds.
?11 of the last 18 NCAA Champs were #1 seeds.
?14 of the last 18 NCAA Champs were #1 or #2 seeds.
?Only 4 of the last 18 NCAA Champs were seeded higher than #2:
#4 Arizona, 1997
#3 Michigan, 1989
#6 Kansas, 1988
#8 Villanova, 1985
?A #1 seed has played in the Championship Game every year since 1985, except 1989, 1991, and 1998.
Misc. Facts (since ?85):
?Duke has been in 9 of the last 17 Final 4?s, 7 of the last 17 Championship Games, and have been Champs 3 times since 1991.
?North Carolina has been in 6 of the last 12 Final 4?s, but only 1 Championship Game, which they won in 1993.
?Kentucky has been in 4 of the last 10 Final 4?s, 3 of the last 7 Championship Games, and have been Champs twice since 1996.
?Michigan St. has been in 3 of the last 4 Final 4?s.
?Either Duke or North Carolina has been in every Final 4 since 1985, except for ?87, ?96, and ?02. (?85, ?86, ?88, ?89, ?90, ?91, ?92, ?93, ?94, ?95, ?97, ?98, ?99, ?00, ?01)
Here are some tips to help you make your NCAA Tournament picks. Before you pick the top seeds to win their games, take a look at recent tournament history from 1985-2002. (In 1985, the tournament took shape to what it is today.)
Round 1 Facts (since ?85):
Of 72 of each seed since 1985 (4 regions x 18 years):
?No #1 seed has lost to a #16 seed
?4 #2 seeds have lost to #15 (5.5%)
?13 #3 seeds have lost to #14 (18.0%)
?15 #4 seeds have lost to #13 (20.8%)
?23 #5 seeds have lost to #12 (31.9%)
?23 #6 seeds have lost to #11 (31.9%)
?29 #7 seeds have lost to #10 (40.3%)
?39 #8 seeds have lost to #9 (54.2%)
Round 2 Facts (since ?85):
The following number of teams in each seed have won their 2nd round game, and advanced to the Sweet 16:
?#1 ? 62 (86.1% of all #1 seeds advance past the 2nd round)
?#2 ? 47 (65.3%)
?#3 ? 32 (44.4%)
?#4 ? 34 (47.2%)
?#5 ? 23 (31.9%)
?#6 ? 28 (38.9%)
?#7 ? 11 (15.3%)
?#8 ? 8 (11.1%)
?#9 ? 2 (2.8%)
?#10 ? 14 (19.4%)
?#11 ? 10 (13.9%)
?#12 ? 12 (16.7%)
?#13 ? 3 (4.2%)
?#14 - 2 (2.8%)
?#15 ? 0 (0%)
?#16 - 0 (0%)
Sweet 16 Facts (since ?85):
?Each of the past 10 tournaments has had a #5 & a #6 seed in the Sweet 16. That means a #3 and a #4 lost by the 2nd round. (So more than likely, this year will have a #5 and a #6 seed in the Sweet 16.)
?Each of the past 6 tournaments has had #5, #6, and #10 seeds in the Sweet 16. That means a #2, #3, and #4 lost by the 2nd round. (You may want to consider adding a #10 seed in your Sweet 16.)
?In 3 of the past 4 tournaments, TWO #10 seeds made the Sweet 16. That means TWO #2 seeds lost by the 2nd round. (Again, add a #10 seed.)
?In 16 of the past 18 tournaments, at least one team seeded higher than #10 has made the Sweet16. (Only twice since 1985 was the Sweet 16 made up of seeds 10 and lower. Add an 11 or 12.)
?In the past 4 tournaments, when Gonzaga is seeded #10 or higher, they have made the Sweet 16. Last year they were #6, and did not make it. This year, they are #9, and would have to beat #1 Arizona to make it.
Here are Sweet 16 teams who beat their seeding (teams higher than #4 in the Sweet 16) for the past 6 tournaments:
* won their Sweet 16 game, and went on to the Elite 8
** won their Elite 8 game, and went on to Final 4
*** won their Final 4 game, and went on to Championship Game
**** National Champions
2002:
#5 Indiana***
#6 Texas
#8 UCLA
#10 Kent St.*
#11 Southern Illinois
#12 Missouri*
2001:
#5 Cincinnati
#6 USC*
#7 Penn St.
#10 Georgetown
#11 Temple*
#12 Gonzaga
2000:
#5 Florida***
#6 UCLA
#6 Purdue*
#6 Miami
#7 Tulsa*
#8 Wisconsin**
#8 North Carolina**
#10 Gonzaga
#10 Seton Hall
1999:
#5 Iowa
#6 Florida
#6 Temple*
#10 Gonzaga*
#10 Purdue
#10 Miami, OH
#12 SW Missouri St.
#13 Oklahoma
1998:
#5 Syracuse
#6 UCLA
#8 Rhode Island*
#10 West Virginia
#11 Washington
#13 Valparaiso
1997:
#5 California
#6 Louisville*
#6 Iowa State
#6 Stanford
#10 Providence*
#10 Texas
#14 Tenn-Chattanooga
Elite 8 Facts (since ?85):
?In 12 of the last 18 tournaments, at least THREE #1 seeds made the Elite 8. All FOUR #1 seeds have only made the Elite 8 in 3 of the past 18 tournaments (?01, ?93, ?87)
?The only year since 1985 to have less than TWO #1 seeds in the Elite 8 was 2000, in which 5 of the 8 were seeded #5 or higher. (So more than likely, at least TWO #1 seeds will make the Elite 8.)
Here are the Elite 8 teams of the past 6 tournaments:
* won their Elite 8 Game to make the Final 4
2002:
#5 Indiana*
#2 Oklahoma*
#1 Maryland*
#1 Kansas*
#10 Kent
#12 Missouri
#2 U Conn
#2 Oregon
2001:
#1 Duke*
#3 Maryland*
#2 Arizona*
#1 Michigan St.*
#6 USC
#1 Stanford
#1 Illinois
#11 Temple
2000:
#1 Michigan St.*
#8 Wisconsin*
#5 Florida*
#8 North Carolina*
#2 Iowa St.
#6 Purdue
#3 Oklahoma St.
#7 Tulsa
1999:
#4 Ohio St.*
#1 U Conn.*
#1 Duke*
#1 Michigan St.*
#3 St. John?s
#10 Gonzaga
#6 Temple
#3 Kentucky
1998:
#1 North Carolina*
#3 Utah*
#3 Stanford*
#2 Kentucky*
#2 Connecticut
#1 Arizona
#8 Rhode Island
#1 Duke
1997:
#1 Minnesota*
#1 Kentucky*
#1 North Carolina*
#4 Arizona*
#2 UCLA
#2 Utah
#6 Louisville
#10 Providence
Final 4 Facts (since ?85):
?Of the 72 Final 4 teams of the past 18 tournaments:
32 have been #1 seeds (44.4%)
47 have been #1 or #2 seeds (65.3%)
55 have been #1, #2, or #3 seeds (76.4%)
62 have been #1, #2, #3, or #4 seeds (86.1%)
?So only 10 of 72 Final 4 teams since 1985 have been seeded higher than #4. Four of those 10 have come in the last 3 tournaments.
Here are the Final 4 teams of the past 6 tournaments:
* won their Final 4 Game to make the Championship Game
** National Champions
2002:
#1 Maryland**
#5 Indiana*
#1 Kansas
#2 Oklahoma
2001:
#1 Duke**
#2 Arizona*
#3 Maryland
#1 Michigan St.
2000:
#1 Michigan St.**
#5 Florida*
#8 Wisconsin
#8 North Carolina
1999:
#1 U Conn.**
#1 Duke*
#1 Michigan St.
#4 Ohio St.
1998:
#2 Kentucky**
#3 Utah*
#1 North Carolina
#3 Stanford
1997:
#4 Arizona**
#1 Kentucky*
#1 North Carolina
#1 Minnesota
Championship Facts (since ?85):
?2 of the last 3 tournaments have had a #1/#5 match up in the Championship Game, with the #1 seed winning.
?The last 4 NCAA Champions were #1 seeds.
?11 of the last 18 NCAA Champs were #1 seeds.
?14 of the last 18 NCAA Champs were #1 or #2 seeds.
?Only 4 of the last 18 NCAA Champs were seeded higher than #2:
#4 Arizona, 1997
#3 Michigan, 1989
#6 Kansas, 1988
#8 Villanova, 1985
?A #1 seed has played in the Championship Game every year since 1985, except 1989, 1991, and 1998.
Misc. Facts (since ?85):
?Duke has been in 9 of the last 17 Final 4?s, 7 of the last 17 Championship Games, and have been Champs 3 times since 1991.
?North Carolina has been in 6 of the last 12 Final 4?s, but only 1 Championship Game, which they won in 1993.
?Kentucky has been in 4 of the last 10 Final 4?s, 3 of the last 7 Championship Games, and have been Champs twice since 1996.
?Michigan St. has been in 3 of the last 4 Final 4?s.
?Either Duke or North Carolina has been in every Final 4 since 1985, except for ?87, ?96, and ?02. (?85, ?86, ?88, ?89, ?90, ?91, ?92, ?93, ?94, ?95, ?97, ?98, ?99, ?00, ?01)
Facebook
Twitter